2020 NFL Draft Discussion

[MrBobGray]

Oh wait, are you including playoffs?  That would make sense, although even then I see him at 269 not 267.  But regardless, I'm not including playoff numbers because PFR doesn't in their breakdowns.  It would be way more of a pain in the *** to get those numbers and I don't love you guys that much.

[incognito_man]

4 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

Uh....where are you seeing this?  PFR and NFL.com both have him at 236.

From the table you provided that breaks carries down by field position: 8+30+110+67+33+19 = 267

[Shanedorf]

2 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

I don't love you guys that much.

 I looked at some random play-by-play lists at pro football reference and the RB subbing was all over the place -
both by series and within a series in the 3 games I sampled

[MrBobGray]

6 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

From the table you provided that breaks carries down by field position: 8+30+110+67+33+19 = 267

So the 1-10 yard line numbers are a subset of the redzone/1-20 numbers, so we wouldn't include the 19 or 8.  However, that does leave you with 240 carries, which is odd.  I have noticed though that PFR has some weirdness with their numbers at times.  For instance, the down and distance numbers somehow add up to 229, but the carries by quarters properly comes out to 236.  I'd guess it's do to with how their database queries are written for specific advanced splits.

[GWH87]

2 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

The Packers place a priority on mobility skills from OL.  The Zone blocking run game that LaFleur places a priority on moblity skills from OL.   The Packers place a priority on OL who can play multiple positions.

Isaiah Wilson is a man scheme right tackle only who doesn't move very well.  If he's the pick, it basically breaks every single tendency we've seen.

If you put a gun to Gute's head and said "you have to pick Isaiah Wilson, Ezra Cleveland, or Ben Bartch"  Wilson would probably be his third choice.

I might not agree with your skill assessment on Wilson, he has a great amount of movement in his game especially given his size.

Might want to revisit the film and numbers on him. At a minimum he’s got the movement of Bulaga who he’d be replacing. Not sure your thought holds water.

[Leader]

Daniel Jeremiah -  The 4 key factors for QB's:

1) Accuracy
2) Decision Making
3) Poise
4) Playmaking

Good exercise to run the QB class through these four factors. I think Burrow & Tua are both outstanding in all 4 areas.

• Ross Uglem -  Notice how "rocket arm" and "6'4" are not listed.

[Joe]

3 hours ago, Leader said:

Daniel Jeremiah -  The 4 key factors for QB's:

1) Accuracy
2) Decision Making
3) Poise
4) Playmaking

Good exercise to run the QB class through these four factors. I think Burrow & Tua are both outstanding in all 4 areas.

• Ross Uglem -  Notice how "rocket arm" and "6'4" are not listed.

and if they were, Jordan Love would be in that top-5 discussion for sure...

[squire12]

Looking at the SPARQ profiles of the OL for this year.

sorry if this stretches the page......

I used the following (as historical GB OL draft pick thresholds)
shuttle as 4.75
3-cone as 7.7
10-yard split as 1.8

 

																	5.2		1.8	4.75	7.7		30	8.1
#	Name	ID	Pos.	School	Age	HT	WT	pSPARQ	z-score	NFL%	Last Name	HT	WT	AL	HS	WING	40 YD	20 YD	10 YD	Shuttle	3-Cone	BP	Vert.	Broad
2	Ezra Cleveland	Yes	OT	Boise State		6060	311	122.5	1.4	91.7	Cleveland	6060	311	33.38	9	80.375	4.93		1.73	4.46	7.26	30	30	9.25
12	Matt Hennessy	Yes	OC	Temple	22.8	6037	307	108.7	0.4	66.6	Hennessy	6037	307	32.25	10	79.75	5.18		1.8	4.6	7.45	23	30	9.17
10	Danny Pinter	Yes	OG	Ball State	24.2	6042	306	107.9	0.4	66.7	Pinter	6042	306	31.88	9.5	77.875	4.91		1.73	4.62	7.76	24	29.5	9.17
4	Cesar Ruiz	Yes	OC	Michigan	21.2	6026	307	112.6	0.8	77.5	Ruiz	6026	307	33.13	11	79.625	5.08		1.77	4.64	7.91	28	33	9.42
16	Keith Ismael	Yes	OC	San Diego State	22.1	6027	309	104.9	0.1	54.5	Ismael	6027	309	32.25	10	78.875	5.34		1.79	4.65	8.14		32	9
17	Andrew Thomas	Yes	OT	Georgia	21.6	6051	315	105.5	0.1	53.8	Thomas	6051	315	36.13	10.25	83.5	5.22		1.83	4.66	7.58	21	30.5	9.08
1	Tristan Wirfs	Yes	OT	Iowa	21.6	6047	320	135.6	2.4	99.1	Wirfs	6047	320	34	10.25	80.25	4.85		1.69	4.68	7.65	24	36.5	10.08
24	Kyle Murphy	Yes	OT	Rhode Island	22.3	6032	316	93.8	-0.8	21.5	Murphy	6032	316	33.88	10	79.875	5.3		1.86	4.68	7.81	19	28	8.67
14	Jon Runyan	Yes	OG	Michigan	23.1	6042	306	104.7	0.2	56.7	Runyan	6042	306	33.25	9.13	79.625	5.08		1.79	4.69	7.57	24	30.5	8.92
7	John Molchon	Yes	OG	Boise State		6052	309	109.3	0.5	70.7	Molchon	6052	309	31.13	9.5	76.5	5.13		1.8	4.73	7.85	26	34	9.08
30	Darryl Williams	Yes	OC	Mississippi State	23.2	6023	304	89.1	-1.2	11.4	Williams	6023	304	32.13	9.75	77.875	5.23		1.8	4.76	7.88	23	25.5	8.5
20	Alex Taylor	Yes	OT	South Carolina State	23.3	6083	308	100.2	-0.3	37.9	Taylor	6083	308	36.13	11.25	88	5.09		1.79	4.79	7.77	21	25	9.67
26	Logan Stenberg	Yes	OG	Kentucky	23.5	6060	317	91.4	-0.9	17.7	Stenberg	6060	317	32.5	10.25	80	5.3		1.86	4.83	8		26	8.67
6	Jedrick Wills	Yes	OT	Alabama	21.3	6042	312	112	0.6	72	Wills	6042	312	34.25	10	83.5	5.05		1.81	4.84			34.5	9.42
19	Charlie Heck	Yes	OT	North Carolina		6075	311	100.5	-0.3	38.9	Heck	6075	311	34.13	10.25	82.25	5.16		1.8	4.86	8.02	21	28	9.33
31	Cordel Iwuagwu	Yes	OG	TCU	24	6027	309	86.1	-1.4	8.7	Iwuagwu	6027	309	33.75	10.13	81	5.22		1.8	4.87	8.03	25	27	7.83
15	John Simpson	Yes	OG	Clemson	23	6041	321	104.7	0.2	56.5	Simpson	6041	321	34.13	11.25	82.375	5.24		1.82	4.87	8.03	34	30	8.92
23	Justin Herron	Yes	OT	Wake Forest	24.8	6035	308	97.3	-0.5	30	Herron	6035	308	33.5	8.88	80.5	5.26		1.88	4.88	8.41	27	33	8.75
25	Shane Lemieux	Yes	OG	Oregon	23.3	6037	310	91.8	-0.9	18.5	Lemieux	6037	310	32.25	9.5	77	5.11		1.83	4.9	8.13		25.5	8.92
11	Matt Peart	Yes	OT	Connecticut		6065	318	110	0.4	66.7	Peart	6065	318	36.63	9.5	86.5	5.06		1.75	4.92	8.01	26	30	9.42
35	Calvin Throckmorton	Yes	OT	Oregon	24	6050	317	81.6	-1.7	4.3	Throckmorton	6050	317	32.5	9.5	77.875	5.57		1.95	4.98	8.07	23	27	8.08
27	Colton Mckivitz	Yes	OT	West Virginia	24.1	6061	306	91.7	-1	17.1	Mckivitz	6061	306	33.75	10	81.625	5.35		1.8	5	7.87	20	26	8.83
32	Jonah Jackson	Yes	OG	Ohio State	23.6	6034	306	86	-1.4	8.6	Jackson	6034	306	33.5	10.5	77.875	5.23		1.84	5.02	7.83	28	26	8.17
8	Isaiah Wilson	Yes	OT	Georgia	21.6	6064	350	110.3	0.5	67.6	Wilson	6064	350	35.5	10.25	84.375	5.32		1.79	5.07	8.26	26	29	9.17
22	Terence Steele	Yes	OT	Texas Tech		6057	312	97.7	-0.5	31	Steele	6057	312	35.13	9.5	85.5	5.03		1.74	5.08		27	27.5	8.83
34	Tyre Phillips	Yes	OG	Mississippi State	23.6	6050	331	83.3	-1.6	5.6	Phillips	6050	331	35.13	10.38	84.625	5.37		1.84	5.11	8.17	22	25	7.75
21	Nick Harris	Yes	OC	Washington		6007	302	97.7	-0.5	31.2	Harris	6007	302	32.13	9.75	77.5	5.1		1.76			20	29.5	8.58
41	Lloyd Cushenberry	Yes	OC	LSU	22.8	6031	312				Cushenberry	6031	312	34.13	10.38	84.25	5.27		1.82			25
40	Jake Hanson	Yes	OC	Oregon		6043	303				Hanson	6043	303	32.75	9.25	78	5.5		1.95			33
39	Cohl Cabral	Yes	OC	Arizona State	22.6	6047	300				Cabral	6047	300	32.25	10	78.5						20
51	Trystan Colon-Castillo	Yes	OC	Missouri	22.4	6030	313				Colon-Castillo	6030	313	30.5	9.25	76.25						11
52	Tyler Biadasz	Yes	OC	Wisconsin		6035	314				Biadasz	6035	314	32.25	10	79.875
13	Damien Lewis	Yes	OG	LSU	23.4	6020	327	106	0.3	60.8	Lewis	6020	327	33	10.25	79.5	5.24		1.83			27	30	9
38	Ben Bredeson	Yes	OG	Michigan	22.5	6045	315				Bredeson	6045	315	31.13	10.13	76.75
44	Mike Onwenu	Yes	OG	Michigan	22.7	6025	344				Onwenu	6025	344	34.38	10.5	82						26
45	Netane Muti	Yes	OG	Fresno State	21.4	6027	315				Muti	6027	315	31.75	10.63	76.5						44
49	Simon Stepaniak	Yes	OG	Indiana	23.3	6041	313				Stepaniak	6041	313	32	10.38	79.875						37
50	Solomon Kindley	Yes	OG	Georgia	23.1	6032	337				Kindley	6032	337	32.25	10	77.75
3	Austin Jackson	Yes	OT	Southern Cal	21.1	6047	322	117	1	83.3	Jackson	6047	322	34.13	10.25	82	5.07		1.73		7.95	27	31	9.58
48	Saahdiq Charles	Yes	OT	LSU	21.1	6041	321				Charles	6041	321	33	10	80.375	5.05		1.73
9	Jack Driscoll	Yes	OT	Auburn		6045	306	110.2	0.5	67.4	Driscoll	6045	306	33	9.88	78.5	5.02		1.74			23	29.5	9.5
43	Mekhi Becton	Yes	OT	Louisville	21.4	6073	364				Becton	6073	364	35.63	10.75	83.25	5.1		1.77			23
5	Hakeem Adeniji	Yes	OT	Kansas		6043	302	113.3	0.7	75.3	Adeniji	6043	302	33.75	10	82.375	5.17		1.78			26	34	9.58
18	Joshua Jones	Yes	OT	Houston	23.2	6050	319	102.5	-0.1	44.7	Jones	6050	319	33.88	10.13	79.875	5.27		1.81			24	28.5	9.08
29	Cameron Clark	Yes	OT	Charlotte	22.8	6044	308	88.9	-1.2	12.3	Clark	6044	308	34.13	11	82.75	5.29		1.81			26	25	8.42
28	Tremayne Anchrum	Yes	OT	Clemson	22.2	6017	314	90.3	-1.1	14.5	Anchrum	6017	314	33.63	9.63	80.5	5.21		1.85			26	24.5	8.67
36	Trey Adams	Yes	OT	Washington	23.5	6080	318	78.2	-2	2.4	Adams	6080	318	34.38	9.88	81.5	5.6		1.89				24.5	7.67
33	Yasir Durant	Yes	OT	Missouri	23.3	6060	331	83.3	-1.6	5.6	Durant	6060	331	34.75	9.5	82.75	5.52		1.95			21	25
37	Ben Bartch	Yes	OT	St. John's (MN)	22.1	6056	309				Bartch	6056	309	32.88	9	80.5
42	Lucas Niang	Yes	OT	TCU	22	6060	315				Niang	6060	315	34.25	10.5	83.125
46	Prince Tega Wanogho	Yes	OT	Auburn	22.8	6050	308				Wanogho	6050	308	33.5	10.38	80.75
47	Robert Hunt	Yes	OT	Louisiana-Lafayette	24	6051	323				Hunt	6051	323	33.5	10.75	82

[Norm]

Out of the loop

I see everyone tease about this Ezra, does he suck or what

[cannondale]

I thought I saw a chart posted where Runyan didn't pass the criteria. I like second generation guys

Edited April 9, 2020 by cannondale

[Lodestar]

9 minutes ago, cannondale said:

I like second generation guys

1.30 - WR Jalen (Montae) Reagor
2.62 - S Antoine Winfield, Jr.
3.94 - WR Michael Pittman, Jr.
4.136 - WR Van (Shawn) Jefferson
5.175 - TE Thaddeus (Randy) Moss
6.192 - S J.R. (Jake) Reed
6.208 - T Jon Runyan, Jr.
6.209 - WR Collin (Johnnie) Johnson
7.236 - LB Thomas (Marion) Barber

[Joe]

20 minutes ago, Lodestar said:

1.30 - WR Jalen (Montae) Reagor
2.62 - S Antoine Winfield, Jr.
3.94 - WR Michael Pittman, Jr.
4.136 - WR Van (Shawn) Jefferson
5.175 - TE Thaddeus (Randy) Moss
6.192 - S J.R. (Jake) Reed
6.208 - T Jon Runyan, Jr.
6.209 - WR Collin (Johnnie) Johnson
7.236 - LB Thomas (Marion) Barber

Barber's a brother of Marion Barber, not a son.

[cannondale]

35 minutes ago, Lodestar said:

1.30 - WR Jalen (Montae) Reagor
2.62 - S Antoine Winfield, Jr.
3.94 - WR Michael Pittman, Jr.
4.136 - WR Van (Shawn) Jefferson
5.175 - TE Thaddeus (Randy) Moss
6.192 - S J.R. (Jake) Reed
6.208 - T Jon Runyan, Jr.
6.209 - WR Collin (Johnnie) Johnson
7.236 - LB Thomas (Marion) Barber

Gimme Runyan all day long in the 6th. Got a good feeling about Pittman's value in the 3rd but nothing concrete. Reagor's production scares me at #30. Not smart enough for the rest.

Edited April 9, 2020 by cannondale

[craig]

4 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

...Aaron Jones:

Split	Value	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1D	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	1D	Ctch%	Y/Tgt
Quarter	1st Qtr	57	229	4.0	5	12	24	20	178	8.9	2	5	83.3%	7.4
	2nd Qtr	54	265	4.9	3	14	13	7	48	6.9	0	3	53.8%	3.7
	3rd Qtr	62	303	4.9	7	17	13	8	74	9.3	0	4	61.5%	5.7
	4th Qtr	63	287	4.6	1	12	18	14	174	12.4	1	6	77.8%	9.7
	1st Half	111	494	4.5	8	26	37	27	226	8.4	2	8	73.0%	6.1
	2nd Half	125	590	4.7	8	29	31	22	248	11.3	1	10	71.0%	8.0

Jamaal Williams:

Split	Value	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1D	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	1D	Ctch%	Y/Tgt
Quarter	1st Qtr	17	48	2.8	1	3	7	6	45	7.5	1	2	85.7%	6.4
	2nd Qtr	34	180	5.3	0	7	18	15	75	5.0	2	6	83.3%	4.2
	3rd Qtr	21	105	5.0	0	9	9	8	63	7.9	0	3	88.9%	7.0
	4th Qtr	35	127	3.6	0	4	11	10	70	7.0	2	5	90.9%	6.4
	1st Half	51	228	4.5	1	10	25	21	120	5.7	3	8	84.0%	4.8
	2nd Half	56	232	4.1	0	13	20	18	133	7.4	2	8	90.0%	6.7

Jones carries are very consistent.  He varies from 54 in the 2nd to 63 in the fourth, but overall you can see that he generally sees pretty consistent usage.  Not Williams; he clearly gets more carries in the 2nd and 4th quarter by a fair margin.  Now, there's two reasons a player would see a significant variance tilting towards those two quarters; either they're so elite but fragile you only want to play them in critical situations (nope), or you're using them to run the clock down.  Williams' high YPC in the 2nd quarter and low YPC in the 4th quarter is consistent with this; teams will give you the run at the end of the half, so it's easier for the clock-killer to pick up some yards.  In the 4th, the other team desperately needs the ball back and commits to the run....

The combined number of run plays by quarter is interesting. 

• 1st:  74
• 2nd:  88
• 3rd:  83
• 4th:  114

I get the "run out the clock" concept for 4th quarter, but I admit being surprised.  I'd have guessed that predictable run-run 4th quarter calls would result in a lot of run-run-punt series,  which don't result in enough first downs or volume of offensive plays to inflate the total number of run plays.  

The lower number in 1st quarter may:

• just be random statistical fluke?  
• The first-quarter offense just didn't tend to be good enough to generate enough first downs and enough plays?  
• Or maybe the first-quarter offense is where the more scripted plays happen, and those tend to include more passing plays?  

To some degree the Jones/Williams usage seems natural.  Jones is good and is the #1, Williams is #2.  Jones is on scheduled usage limits.  So quarters 2 and 4, Williams picks up the extra runs that are beyond Jones's usage threshold. 

It would be fun if the offense was more efficient next season, scored more, converted more first downs, and was able to run more plays, such that assuming Jones would stay on his usage limits, there would just be more snaps and more carries left over for Williams J and perhaps also Williams Dexter to pick up.  

[AlexGreen#20]

4 hours ago, GWH87 said:

I might not agree with your skill assessment on Wilson, he has a great amount of movement in his game especially given his size.

Might want to revisit the film and numbers on him. At a minimum he’s got the movement of Bulaga who he’d be replacing. Not sure your thought holds water.

Not even in the ballpark