Week 1 Overreactions Thread

[MrOaktown_56]

13 minutes ago, Mizter_Clean10 said:

Due to this being an overreaction thread, I take it this is a back handed compliment about the Chiefs offense?

We know what KC's offense is. Schoolchildren could tackle better than the Jaguars did in that game. It was actually funny how many people just flew by the ball carrier with no regard for leverage, technique, or an understanding of the consequences of a whiff...

[TVScout]

Dak is the best QB in the League:

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Dak Prescott	DAL	25/32	405	4	0	0	273	265	8	NYG
Yes, Prescott threw four touchdowns, each within New York's 30-yard line ... but he was even better at the other end of the field. He threw 10 passes within the Dallas 40, and eight of them resulted in first downs. The other two were a 6-yard gain on first down and an incompletion on second-and-4. Those nine completions produced a total of 216 yards.
2.	Lamar Jackson	BAL	17/20	324	5	0	1	201	204	-3	MIA
Jackson would have made the top 10 in this table based on his first quarter alone: 6-of-6 for 163 yards and two touchdowns. And then his first pass of the second quarter was his third touchdown, a 33-yarder. He's only below Prescott in these tables because Prescott threw almost 50 percent more passes.
3.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	25/33	378	3	0	0	168	174	-6	JAX
Mahomes was also a monster in the first quarter: 8-of-9 for 211 yards and two touchdowns. He was much more quiet in the second half, when only two of his 13 dropbacks gained 10 or more yards, none more than 15 yards.
4.	Case Keenum	WAS	30/43	380	3	0	1	151	151	0	PHI
Big first quarters were the theme this week, apparently. Keenum's first 15 minutes: 9-of-11 for 132 yards and a touchdown. His first pass of the second quarter was a 69-yard touchdown, but then he too cooled off. As Washington turned a 10-point lead into a 9-point deficit, Keenum went nine straight dropbacks without picking up a first down, padding his stats with 11-yard gains on second-and-25 and third-and-20 in the process.
5.	Derek Carr	OAK	22/26	259	1	0	0	139	141	-2	DEN
6.	Tom Brady	NE	24/36	341	3	0	1	139	139	0	PIT
In his first game post-Gronkowski, Brady only threw two passes to tight ends, both to somebody identified as "85-R.Izzo" in the play-by-play. One was incomplete; the other was caught for a 3-yard gain on second-and-13. So, way to go, Steelers. You totally shut that dude down.
7.	Carson Wentz	PHI	28/39	313	3	0	1	123	119	5	WAS
Wentz's first third-down pass was incomplete. He nailed every third-down throw after that, completing all 12 of them for 197 yards and nine conversions, including seven in a row at one point, with three touchdowns.
8.	Drew Brees	NO	32/41	370	2	1	1	105	105	0	HOU
9.	Matthew Stafford	DET	27/43	385	3	0	3	96	85	11	ARI
Stafford's DYAR is worse than you might think because he fumbled twice. The Lions recovered one, but the other was lost to Arizona on first down just outside the red zone. That happened in the first quarter and might have gone overlooked in all the excitement at the end of the game, but it's a big reason Detroit ended with a tie and not a win.
10.	Gardner Minshew	JAX	22/25	275	2	1	1	83	82	2	KC
Minshew's debut was fantastic, better in relief than most starters this week, but we must point out that his gaudy completion percentage was padded by a lot of dumpoffs. He had eight failed completions in three quarters and change; Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan led the league with 10 failed completions each this week. Minshew completed all five of his third-down throws, but only two resulted in first downs.   https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2019/week-1-quick-reads

[scar988]

On 9/9/2019 at 9:21 AM, SBLIII said:

Lamar is prime Michael Vick on steroids.

If Prime Mike Vick could pass accurately and with touch.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

13 minutes ago, TVScout said:

Dak is the best QB in the League:

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Dak Prescott	DAL	25/32	405	4	0	0	273	265	8	NYG
Yes, Prescott threw four touchdowns, each within New York's 30-yard line ... but he was even better at the other end of the field. He threw 10 passes within the Dallas 40, and eight of them resulted in first downs. The other two were a 6-yard gain on first down and an incompletion on second-and-4. Those nine completions produced a total of 216 yards.
2.	Lamar Jackson	BAL	17/20	324	5	0	1	201	204	-3	MIA
Jackson would have made the top 10 in this table based on his first quarter alone: 6-of-6 for 163 yards and two touchdowns. And then his first pass of the second quarter was his third touchdown, a 33-yarder. He's only below Prescott in these tables because Prescott threw almost 50 percent more passes.
3.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	25/33	378	3	0	0	168	174	-6	JAX
Mahomes was also a monster in the first quarter: 8-of-9 for 211 yards and two touchdowns. He was much more quiet in the second half, when only two of his 13 dropbacks gained 10 or more yards, none more than 15 yards.
4.	Case Keenum	WAS	30/43	380	3	0	1	151	151	0	PHI
Big first quarters were the theme this week, apparently. Keenum's first 15 minutes: 9-of-11 for 132 yards and a touchdown. His first pass of the second quarter was a 69-yard touchdown, but then he too cooled off. As Washington turned a 10-point lead into a 9-point deficit, Keenum went nine straight dropbacks without picking up a first down, padding his stats with 11-yard gains on second-and-25 and third-and-20 in the process.
5.	Derek Carr	OAK	22/26	259	1	0	0	139	141	-2	DEN
6.	Tom Brady	NE	24/36	341	3	0	1	139	139	0	PIT
In his first game post-Gronkowski, Brady only threw two passes to tight ends, both to somebody identified as "85-R.Izzo" in the play-by-play. One was incomplete; the other was caught for a 3-yard gain on second-and-13. So, way to go, Steelers. You totally shut that dude down.
7.	Carson Wentz	PHI	28/39	313	3	0	1	123	119	5	WAS
Wentz's first third-down pass was incomplete. He nailed every third-down throw after that, completing all 12 of them for 197 yards and nine conversions, including seven in a row at one point, with three touchdowns.
8.	Drew Brees	NO	32/41	370	2	1	1	105	105	0	HOU
9.	Matthew Stafford	DET	27/43	385	3	0	3	96	85	11	ARI
Stafford's DYAR is worse than you might think because he fumbled twice. The Lions recovered one, but the other was lost to Arizona on first down just outside the red zone. That happened in the first quarter and might have gone overlooked in all the excitement at the end of the game, but it's a big reason Detroit ended with a tie and not a win.
10.	Gardner Minshew	JAX	22/25	275	2	1	1	83	82	2	KC
Minshew's debut was fantastic, better in relief than most starters this week, but we must point out that his gaudy completion percentage was padded by a lot of dumpoffs. He had eight failed completions in three quarters and change; Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan led the league with 10 failed completions each this week. Minshew completed all five of his third-down throws, but only two resulted in first downs.   https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2019/week-1-quick-reads

See the bolded red text. Lamar Jackson is actually the best QB in the league.

[TVScout]

4 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

See the bolded red text. Lamar Jackson is actually the best QB in the league.

Compare the opponents. Giants are a bad team but the Dolphins might be the worst team in history.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

2 minutes ago, TVScout said:

Compare the opponents. Giants are a bad team but the Dolphins might be the worst team in history.

Giants are pretty awful as well and might actually be more void of talent than Miami, sans Saquon.

[evilpimp972]

3 minutes ago, TVScout said:

Compare the opponents. Giants are a bad team but the Dolphins might be the worst team in history.

Dolphins defense has better players (corners / safeties) and were at home. Lamar FTW.

[El Ramster]

They both suck and are avg RBs at best. 

[Danger]

1 hour ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Giants are pretty awful as well and might actually be more void of talent than Miami, sans Saquon.

Giants are bad, but they're not THAT bad. I think they'll win 6 games.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

4 minutes ago, Danger said:

Giants are bad, but they're not THAT bad. I think they'll win 6 games.

Given the AFCE, I could also see the Dolphins winning 6 games since they play the Jets and Bills 4x total.

[Danger]

1 minute ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Given the AFCE, I could also see the Dolphins winning 6 games since they play the Jets and Bills 4x total.

tbh, I see the 'Phins going 1-15

[Manny/Patrick]

49ers have a 2002 TB defensive run, get 20 pick 6s and allow 15 ppg

[theJ]

2 hours ago, TVScout said:

Dak is the best QB in the League:

Looked quickly on their website: how can they do DYAR on game's worth of data?  How would they possibly adjust for defenses?  Are they using some games from last year too, or ignoring the effects of defense until they have a bigger sample size?  Seems like you couldn't do the calculation without an infinite loop error.

[theJ]

2 hours ago, evilpimp972 said:

Dolphins defense has better players (corners / safeties) and were at home. Lamar FTW.

Dolphins might have better players, but they obviously gave way less effort.  You could visibly see players giving up on plays.  Effort (or the lack thereof) counts way more than talent, ever day of the week.  

I can beat Steph Curry 1v1 if he doesn't give AF, plays no defense, and shoots only full court shots left handed.  Doesn't mean i'm an amazing basketball player.

[kyle21121]

Jameis Winston has already played his best game of 2019