TecmoSuperJoe Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 (edited) On 9/27/2019 at 6:54 AM, Bearerofnews said: This thread took a weird turn. Jusy FYI i dont date so im not worried about faithful thots. To steer back to subject at hand. I most trust passer rating. If ya look at career and season passer ratings, when applying some range of qualifying attempts, you will hardly ever find passer rating rankings that arent pretty accurate with actual play. The key is applicable attempts qualifier. It doesn't bother you that passer rating excludes elements like sacks, YAC, or fumbles? That is a lot of context that is ignored. Edited September 29, 2019 by PapaShogun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 7 hours ago, PapaShogun said: There has been a lot of talk about PFF's QB ranking of Mahomes after week 3. PFF recently posted a video talking further in depth about their ranking. Now, this isn't necessarily a defense of PFF to say that their opinion is fact, but I do think some folks here simply write off their methods without understanding them when they see a list, and don't agree. At the end of the day, it's just an opinion, and there are various sites out there with different metrics. I like PFF, and what they do, but obviously it's not for everyone. The next time PFF Edge has a free trial subscription period, people might want to sign up just to get a better idea. Or listen to their podcast, which comes out weekly and is free. I watched this earlier just to see them try as hard as they can to try to climb themselves out of the hole and I came away even less impressed. You mean to tell me that those 4 plays that they showed are the reason why Mahomes was ranked 6th? Are you kidding me. Prior to TNF, Mahomes had something like the 5th most (official) pass attempts in the league despite KC having the 5th highest PD as a whole. Take those 4 "bad" plays and measure them up per play attempt (rush included) vs the rest of the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 2 hours ago, PapaShogun said: It doesn't bother you that passer rating excludes elements like sacks, YAC, or fumbles? That is a lot of context that is ignored. It does... but it has the beat track record to me personally as the most accurate indicator of surface level results. This site has smart people. We should come up with our own formula and system. It could be super granular and detailed. Might be a cool project. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 21 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said: This site has smart people. We should come up with our own formula and system. It could be super granular and detailed. Might be a cool project. I would like this. But it isn't possible because there are too many homers on here who would take their own favorite teams QB weaknesses and try to put less weight on those vs their strengths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 31 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said: I would like this. But it isn't possible because there are too many homers on here who would take their own favorite teams QB weaknesses and try to put less weight on those vs their strengths. I think it would have to be a formula where the variables are agreed upon unanimously as a community. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said: I watched this earlier just to see them try as hard as they can to try to climb themselves out of the hole and I came away even less impressed. You mean to tell me that those 4 plays that they showed are the reason why Mahomes was ranked 6th? Are you kidding me. Prior to TNF, Mahomes had something like the 5th most (official) pass attempts in the league despite KC having the 5th highest PD as a whole. Take those 4 "bad" plays and measure them up per play attempt (rush included) vs the rest of the league. I think they said they are only looking at four plays. Not that those were the only negative plays in three weeks for him. Edited September 29, 2019 by PapaShogun 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 (edited) 43 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said: I think it would have to be a formula where the variables are agreed upon unanimously as a community. Who has the time to look at All 22 tape, and grade every quarterback for every team's throw? Also have it peer reviewed? And not get paid for it? Good luck finding volunteers. Edited September 29, 2019 by PapaShogun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlowe22 Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 3 hours ago, PapaShogun said: Who has the time to look at All 22 tape, and grade every quarterback for every team's throw? Also have it peer reviewed? And not get paid for it? Good luck finding volunteers. You're right, it's a lot easier to let someone else do it, then bash their results. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 8 hours ago, PapaShogun said: It doesn't bother you that passer rating excludes elements like sacks, YAC, or fumbles? That is a lot of context that is ignored. To a degree they the first two are/should be included but everything requires context. Sacks, correct me if I'm wrong but in the NFL I'm fairly certain you lose passing yards equivalent to sack yards taken. It does probably have a bigger effect but yeah. YAC, If a QB throws to a receiver who's on a slant and then proceed to run for 20 more yards, shouldn't he get credit for that as well vs throwing to a receiver who's running a 8-9 yard comeback route? There are nuances that could improve it, but the eye test has to be #1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 (edited) PFF is Wack 4 bull jives drop him to 6th? Wack "What if they were interceptions?" thing is they werent. Edited September 29, 2019 by Chiefer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, Chiefer said: PFF is Wack 4 bull jives drop him to 6th? Wack "What if they were interceptions?" thing is they werent. But the throw still happened. They aren't grading based on result in the box score or the game's benefit. It's the same as if Mahomes threw a deep pass on the money, and it's dropped, or a holding call negates it. Mahomes is still graded positively on that throw. Every snap and action is graded. Even if it won't show up in the final box score. Edited September 29, 2019 by PapaShogun 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlowe22 Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 3 hours ago, Chiefer said: PFF is Wack 4 bull jives drop him to 6th? Wack "What if they were interceptions?" thing is they werent. Their explanation made sense. Whether or not it's enough to convince someone he should be lower than someone else is a different story. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Im sure his PFF grade was terrible today lol Reminds me of Elway. Not good all game but at the end pulls it off somehow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 (edited) 11 hours ago, PapaShogun said: Who has the time to look at All 22 tape, and grade every quarterback for every team's throw? Also have it peer reviewed? And not get paid for it? Good luck finding volunteers. I think you take out any interpretation or subjective elements. So you only use tangible data. Like maybe DVOA numbers, minus yac, use oline rankings, etc. Use different metrics from different sources that create the best most indepth formula. Idk.. just throwing it out there. Edited September 29, 2019 by Bearerofnews Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoleINGout Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said: Idk.. just throwing it out there. no pun intended. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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