ESPN Pass Block Win Rate and QBs Who Avoid Sacks

[RandyMossIsBoss]

Since last year ESPN has been showing us a bit of their new metric of pass rush and pass block win rate. Here's some of the team/player leaders through 4 weeks. At the moment our only access to these stats are through occasional articles, the metric is not in any public database. Hopefully that changes. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27584726/nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-rankings-2019-pbwr-prwr-leaderboard

 

Quote

OK, what is this exactly?
Our new Pass Block Win Rate metric tells us the rate at which linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer. Likewise, our Pass Rush Win Rate metric tells us how often a pass-rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds. Our model of pass blocking harnesses player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats.

 

Not an exact science, but comparing actual sack rate to pass block win rate may indicate which QBs do a better job at evading sacks?

Rank	Team	PBWR	Rank	Sack Rate	QBSR
1	Cowboys	65.6%	3	2.4%	6.9%
2	Bills	65.3%	17	6.8%	19.6%
3	Chargers	64.5%	21	7.5%	21.1%
4	Packers	64.1%	11	5.5%	15.3%
5	Browns	63.6%	24	8.6%	23.5%
6	Raiders	63.2%	15	6.2%	16.9%
7	Colts	63.1%	6	4.3%	11.8%
8	Texans	60.6%	31	14.2%	36.0%
9	Bears	60.2%	16	6.6%	16.6%
10	Ravens	60.2%	18	7.1%	17.9%
11	Chiefs	59.8%	1	1.9%	4.8%
12	Jets	59.7%	30	13.8%	34.3%
13	Titans	59.5%	32	14.3%	35.3%
14	Steelers	59.3%	5	2.9%	7.1%
15	Saints	59.2%	14	5.9%	14.5%
16	Eagles	58.4%	9	4.7%	11.2%
17	Jaguars	57.9%	22	7.8%	18.4%
18	Buccaneers	57.3%	25	8.6%	20.2%
19	49ers	56.6%	2	2.4%	5.4%
20	Cardinals	55.7%	28	11.8%	26.7%
21	Giants	55.4%	7	4.4%	9.8%
22	Redskins	52.8%	13	5.9%	12.5%
23	Patriots	52.7%	4	2.7%	5.7%
24	Falcons	51.4%	12	5.7%	11.7%
25	Seahawks	51.1%	26	9.0%	18.5%
26	Lions	48.1%	10	5.0%	9.6%
27	Vikings	47.6%	23	8.1%	15.4%
28	Rams	46.8%	8	4.6%	8.7%
29	Bengals	46.6%	27	11.4%	21.4%
30	Dolphins	41.1%	29	13.2%	22.5%
31	Panthers	40.0%	19	7.4%	12.3%
32	Broncos	36.5%	20	7.4%	11.7%

 

How to read final column, QB sack rate: Tom Brady was sacked on only 5.7% of the 47.3% of drop backs his pass protection failed (good). Deshaun Watson was sacked on 36% of the 39.4% of drop backs his pass protection failed (not good).

(So if Brady dropped back 100 times,  his OL failed in pass pro 47.3 times but he was only sacked 5.7 times)

 

A bit of an overly simplistic view, just because a QB was sacked when his OL held up for 3 seconds doesn't mean it's his fault, and just because they held up for less than 2 seconds doesn't mean it's NOT their fault, but it is likely a solid indicator.

[Matts4313]

I would be interested in seeing some sort of analytics between this and offensive schemes. I assume some of these guys benefit from shorter throws/WCO offense or having a good RB/TE safety blanket. 

Conversely those that are being taught stand in the pocket and throw 9 routes all day might be hurt by their OC. 

Additionally you would think veterans would be better simply due to being able to read a defense quicker

Edited October 3, 2019 by Matts4313

[TecmoSuperJoe]

Edit: Nevermind 

Edited October 3, 2019 by PapaShogun

[Hunter2_1]

Scar needs to do his thing with our patch-work OL. Good job Tom can read game so well and get it out quick. 

[evilflamingo]

Ordered it around to sort by QBSR. Top three is pretty close with Pat Mahomes, Jimmy G, Tom Brady followed by Dak and Ben Rudolph and then another drop to the rest. The bottom three sticks out quite bad as well.  

Rank	Team	PBWR	Rank	Sack Rate	QBSR
11	Chiefs	59.8%	1	1.9%	4.8%
19	49ers	56.6%	2	2.4%	5.4%
23	Patriots	52.7%	4	2.7%	5.7%
1	Cowboys	65.6%	3	2.4%	6.9%
14	Steelers	59.3%	5	2.9%	7.1%
28	Rams	46.8%	8	4.6%	8.7%
26	Lions	48.1%	10	5,00%	9.6%
21	Giants	55.4%	7	4.4%	9.8%
16	Eagles	58.4%	9	4.7%	11.2%
24	Falcons	51.4%	12	5.7%	11.7%
32	Broncos	36.5%	20	7.4%	11.7%
7	Colts	63.1%	6	4.3%	11.8%
31	Panthers	40,00%	19	7.4%	12.3%
22	Redskins	52.8%	13	5.9%	12.5%
15	Saints	59.2%	14	5.9%	14.5%
4	Packers	64.1%	11	5.5%	15.3%
27	Vikings	47.6%	23	8.1%	15.4%
9	Bears	60.2%	16	6.6%	16.6%
6	Raiders	63.2%	15	6.2%	16.9%
10	Ravens	60.2%	18	7.1%	17.9%
17	Jaguars	57.9%	22	7.8%	18.4%
25	Seahawks	51.1%	26	9,00%	18.5%
2	Bills	65.3%	17	6.8%	19.6%
18	Buccaneers	57.3%	25	8.6%	20.2%
3	Chargers	64.5%	21	7.5%	21.1%
29	Bengals	46.6%	27	11.4%	21.4%
30	Dolphins	41.1%	29	13.2%	22.5%
5	Browns	63.6%	24	8.6%	23.5%
20	Cardinals	55.7%	28	11.8%	26.7%
12	Jets	59.7%	30	13.8%	34.3%
13	Titans	59.5%	32	14.3%	35.3%
8	Texans	60.6%	31	14.2%	36.0%

[ET80]

5 minutes ago, evilflamingo said:

The bottom three sticks out quite bad as well.

Yeah; Texans OL is top 10 in PBWR, but the team still comes up dead last. 

It's known that Watson holds onto the ball too long, but damn. This is really bad.

[CP3MVP]

 BOB stinks but watson is a very flawed QB. 

[Jaytrajik]

44 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

 BOB stinks but watson is a very flawed QB. 

I wouldn't go as far as saying flawed. I feel like Deshaun is bound within BoBs parameters which is not conducive to his style of play. Year 1 was true Deshaun Watson. Now we're getting the condensed O'Brien version which is erratic at times. His skillset is complete though, how he puts it together is completely on the coaching staff. 

[Hunter2_1]

Mahomes getting it out quicker than anyone coupled with the 'throwing to the most open receivers' theory - if that is true, just how efin' good are those weapons? They are open as soon as Mahomes is ready to throw, if so. 

[CP3MVP]

6 minutes ago, Jaytrajik said:

I wouldn't go as far as saying flawed. I feel like Deshaun is bound within BoBs parameters which is not conducive to his style of play. Year 1 was true Deshaun Watson. Now we're getting the condensed O'Brien version which is erratic at times. His skillset is complete though, how he puts it together is completely on the coaching staff. 

“True” DW who had like highest interception percentage  in the league(3.9 %) that year?

[Bearerofnews]

9 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Mahomes getting it out quicker than anyone coupled with the 'throwing to the most open receivers' theory - if that is true, just how efin' good are those weapons? They are open as soon as Mahomes is ready to throw, if so. 

Its the scheme. That scheme is amazing and its crazy others arent replicating it. Alot of presnap motions, misdirections and just very decieving route concepts.

[Bearerofnews]

Packers oline is insane with all the players they have in the top 10 of pass block win rate. I counted 3 guards, 1 tackle and 1 center. 

[Chiefer]

9 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Mahomes getting it out quicker than anyone coupled with the 'throwing to the most open receivers' theory - if that is true, just how efin' good are those weapons? They are open as soon as Mahomes is ready to throw, if so. 

He doesnt get it out that quick.

Hes just got great pocket maneuverability. Why hes around the best in the league against the blitz. Gets enough time for his WRs to win on long developing routes.

 

 

[ET80]

9 hours ago, Jaytrajik said:

10 hours ago, CP3MVP said:

BOB stinks but watson is a very flawed QB. 

I wouldn't go as far as saying flawed. I feel like Deshaun is bound within BoBs parameters which is not conducive to his style of play. Year 1 was true Deshaun Watson. Now we're getting the condensed O'Brien version which is erratic at times. His skillset is complete though, how he puts it together is completely on the coaching staff. 

I would agree with this - Watson in that old Kubiak system (in essence, kind of what Kyle Shanahan is doing) would look tremendous. 

O'Brien's system is very much a thinking persons system, which is why guys such as Brady and (oddly enough) Ryan Fitzpatrick thrive in. It's predicated on pre snap reads, recognizing where the holes are before the ball is snapped and adjusting to those holes. Watson is good in it, but not living up to his potential.

Now, that Kubiak/Shanny system? It creates the lanes by using playfakes, rolling out of the pocket, and attacking the defense underneath with deep in routes and TEs outside the numbers. A guy like Watson in that system could be efficient as well as able to take games over when needed - he's got the arm talent and the athleticism to make those rollouts and mid field strikes routinely.

[kramxel]

This seems to imply our O-line is actually good at pass blocking, which is definitely not the case....

There must be something with this data that I'm just flat out missing.