If you didn't think Joe Burrow was a 1st rounder last year, why would you think he's one this year?

[Fureys49ers]

7 minutes ago, VanS said:

You need to stop with this silly parsing.  Obviously ones teammates play a part in your success in a team sport.  Michael Jordan was easily the best player in the NFL by 1988 but he didn't win his first title until 1991.  He needed his teammates to raise their level of play before he broke through.  When I knock a player for the talent around them its because I am trying to tell you where I gauge their talent to be (all things being equal).  A lesser player can have more team success if he has better personnel around him.  A greater player can have less team success if he has worse personnel around him.  Make things equal between the two then I believe the more talented player will have more success.

So when I talk up Josh Allen I'm trying to tell you I don't think many other QBs could do what he did for Buffalo's offense this year given how deficient the talent was.  Obviously this is a difficult experiment to run in real life but for me this is how I mentally gauge players.  Give him more talent and he will have more success in that environment than most other players because he's more talented.  I'm of the simple belief that all things being equal the more talented player will have more success.  Its just that things are never ever really that equal in team sports which is why guys can have success that diverges from their actual talent (i.e Michael Jordan needing to wait until 1991 before he wins a championship).

I’m not quite sure it’s silly parsing though, it’s attempting to find out if and where there is any actual truth to any of the “out of left field” statements that are being made. Not trying break your balls or anything but you don’t create this thread without expecting to be questioned do you? I’m trying to get around all the contradictory statements and “what’s considered acceptable for one player, not for another”.  
What is silly is all the amount of time I’ve spent here though haha.

Edited January 14, 2020 by Fureys49ers

[VanS]

10 minutes ago, MagicMT said:

That would take a tremendous leap. There's a guy in KC who I heard is pretty good. And still young. 
Or a QB in Baltimore that had the MVP season that Josh Allen would have in a perfect world. Or even my guy R. Wilson. 
I think we just view differently the most important attributes necessary for a QB to be successful/the best. 
But thanks for engaging in the discussion, I love your takes even though sometimes they seem outrageous to me
 

I'm about the long game when it comes to evaluating QBs rather than the short game.  I actually predicted Lamar would have more success than Josh early on despite rating Josh as my #1 QB in the 2018 draft and Lamar a close #2.  Its because I viewed Josh's ability as more reliable over the long term while I saw Lamar's dominance being most magnified in the short term.  We'll see how it goes but I think in 10 years Josh Allen will viewed as being a better QB than Lamar.  I'll give you Mahomes.  He's turned out WAY better than I thought he was gonna be.  I thought he would be a Pro Bowl caliber QB on the level of Matt Stafford.  He turned out to be a generational player on the level of Dan Marino.   That's a pretty high bar to surpass.  We'll see how it goes down in the future.

[mse326]

16 minutes ago, VanS said:

Did you not watch any Browns games this year?  Mayfield's accuracy was awful.  The commentators calling the games were constantly pointing it out.

That's the point. Accuracy isn't a buzzword. It is a real thing that all great QBs have. Accuracy, however, is not determined by completion percentage. 

Maybe I misinterpreted you response. What did Baker Mayfield have to do with him saying accuracy isn't a buzzword?

[VanS]

12 minutes ago, Fureys49ers said:

What I was more commenting on though is that you make a snap judgement of a player from the first time you see them and they forever are that player you initially see.

I never said that.  I do place a heavy emphasis on first impressions.  But I do change my views on a players if they make a change that pushes me to change my opinion.  You just value different things than I do for me to change my opinion on a player.  You think because Joe Burrow all of sudden has a monster season statistically that I should then change my opinion on him based on that.  Well I don't view stats or team success as things that make me change my opinion on a player.  I'll give you an example of something that makes me change my views on a player.

Now most people on here know I was high on Alvin Kamara before the 2017 draft.  I had compared him to Marshall faulk, had him rated as the top RB in that class, and a high 1st round prospect when almost no one else did.  Now that's not the view I had on Kamara when he fired arrived at Tennessee in 2015 as a redshirt sophomore.  My first impression of Kamara was that he was really good but not special.  I saw him as a Devonta Freeman type player and thought he would be a solid NFL RB worth taking in the second round but not really a transcendent talent.  Then in 2016 he totally changed my view on him.  How did he do it?  He changed his body composition.  In 2015 he had more of a thicker build.  His balance and hands were still phenomenal but he did not look to have that game breaking explosiveness that elite RBs have.  In 2016 he became slimmer, more sleak, still had elite balance and hands but added more game breaking speed and explosiveness.  I went from liking him to loving him.  And it wasn't because he improved his stats.  Or that his team won more games.  It was because he had transformed himself physically.

So if a player changes physically then yes I will rethink my initial view.  But if he's the same guy physically then I'm not really gonna change my view on him considering physical skill set is the thing I look at most when evaluating players.  I didn't change my view on Joe Burrow cause he looks like the same guy physically from last year.

[VanS]

28 minutes ago, MagicMT said:

It is contradictory, isn't it? Not busting on you Vans. 
Burrow has a great coaching staff and great weapons and somehow that reflects poorly on him but J. Allen having an average coaching staff and average weapons and not achieving that much with them is a good thing? 
 

Cause I judge players based on their talent and not on the end product.  Its why I'm not in the "Brady is the GOAT" crowd.  He might have the best resume of any QB ever but I believe his success was in large part due to the coaching (and cheating) around him.  Put someone like Aaron Rodgers (who I believe in vastly more talented) in the same position and I believe he has more success.  Kind of a difficult experiment to run in real life but its my belief.

Edited January 14, 2020 by VanS

[VanS]

15 minutes ago, mse326 said:

What did Baker Mayfield have to do with him saying accuracy isn't a buzzword?

Cause before the 2018 draft every commentator was talking about how accuracy was Mayfield's strongest attribute.  And now he's looked at as one of the most inaccurate QBs in the NFL.  My point was accuracy in the evaluation process is a buzzword cause nobody really knows if a QB is accurate.  Numbers obviously don't help.  And then when you look at tape its not like every throw is the same for every QBs.  Also you have some coaches that scheme easier throws than others.  Its why its hard to really determine who is accurate and who isn't.

[Fureys49ers]

9 minutes ago, VanS said:

I never said that.  I do place a heavy emphasis on first impressions.  But I do change my views on a players if they make a change that pushes me to change my opinion.  You just value different things than I do for me to change my opinion on a player.  You think because Joe Burrow all of sudden has a monster season statistically that I should then change my opinion on him based on that.  Well I don't view stats or team success as things that make me change my opinion on a player.  I'll give you an example of something that makes me change my views on a player.

Now most people on here know I was high on Alvin Kamara before the 2017 draft.  I had compared him to Marshall faulk, had him rated as the top RB in that class, and a high 1st round prospect when almost no one else did.  Now that's not the view I had on Kamara when he fired arrived at Tennessee in 2015 as a redshirt sophomore.  My first impression of Kamara was that he was really good but not special.  I saw him as a Devonta Freeman type player and thought he would be a solid NFL RB worth taking in the second round but not really a transcendent talent.  Then in 2016 he totally changed my view on him.  How did he do it?  He changed his body composition.  In 2015 he had more of a thicker build.  His balance and hands were still phenomenal but he did not look to have that game breaking explosiveness that elite RBs have.  In 2016 he became slimmer, more sleak, still had elite balance and hands but added more game breaking speed and explosiveness.  I went from liking him to loving him.  And it wasn't because he improved his stats.  Or that his team won more games.  It was because he had transformed himself physically.

So if a player changes physically then yes I will rethink my initial view.  But if he's the same guy physically then I'm not really gonna change my view on him considering physical skill set is the thing I look at most when evaluating players.  I didn't change my view on Joe Burrow cause he looks like the same guy physically from last year.

Noted

[mse326]

3 minutes ago, VanS said:

Cause before the 2018 draft every commentator was talking about how accuracy was Mayfield's strongest attribute.  And now he's looked at as one of the most inaccurate QBs in the NFL.  My point was accuracy in the evaluation process is a buzzword cause nobody really knows if a QB is accurate.  Numbers obviously don't help.  And then when you look at tape its not like every throw is the same for every QBs.  Also you have some coaches that scheme easier throws than others.  Its why its hard to really determine who is accurate and who isn't.

So you won't consider the most important aspect of good QB play because it is hard to judge? That doesn't lend itself to a good evaluation.

[VanS]

7 minutes ago, mse326 said:

So you won't consider the most important aspect of good QB play because it is hard to judge? That doesn't lend itself to a good evaluation.

I consider it.  But only lightly because its extremely unpredictable.  To me its like trying to predict if a RB is gonna be prone to fumbles.  You can look for it but basing your evaluation on that one trait is fruitless.   I would rather look at things like arm talent, mobility, intangibles, and playmaking ability that hasn't been drawn up by the coach when evaluating QBs.  I don't think the differences in accuracy among QBs is as significant as people try to make it out to be.  Most of the best QBs who get it done without elite physical tools do it through presnap reads and getting rid of the ball quickly to playmakers not because they are throwing dimes every play.  There is no QB who make a living off consistently hitting dimes down the field.  Even the great Aaron Rodgers makes his living hitting mostly routine throws based on correctly reading the defense pre-snap.  The dimes typically come every now and then.

Edited January 14, 2020 by VanS

[mse326]

1 minute ago, VanS said:

I consider it.  But only lightly because its extremely unpredictable.  To me its like trying to predict if a RB is gonna be prone to fumbles.  You can look for it but basing your evaluation on that one trait is fruitless.   I would rather look at things like arm talent, mobility, and play making ability that hasn't been drawn up by the coach when evaluating QBs.  I don't think the differences in accuracy among QBs is as significant as people try to make it out to be.  Most of the best QBs who get it done without elite physical tools do it through presnap reads and getting rid of the ball quickly to playmakers not because they are throwing dimes every play.  There is no QB who make a living off consistently hitting dimes down the field.  Even the great Aaron Rodgers makes his living hitting mostly routine throws based on correctly reading the defense pre-snap.  The dimes typically come every now and then.

Except the three greatest QBs of this generation (Brady, Manning, Brees) don't have those elite traits you are talking about.

[VanS]

2 hours ago, mse326 said:

Except the three greatest QBs of this generation (Brady, Manning, Brees) don't have those elite traits you are talking about.

Aaron Rodgers is better than Brees.  And I disagree about Brady and Manning.  Both had great arm talent.  Manning when he was younger.  And Brady up until the last few years. 

[goldfishwars]

3 hours ago, mse326 said:

Except the three greatest QBs of this generation (Brady, Manning, Brees) don't have those elite traits you are talking about.

Seems like someone has spotted the fatal flaw in this man's extremely rigorous QB evaluation checklist. 

[1ForTheThumb]

Burrow is the best CFB I've ever seen. Obviously, not career wise; but watching him this year was the most I've ever been impressed watching someone play QB at the CFB level. Special talent. 

[jrry32]

5 hours ago, VanS said:

I consider it.  But only lightly because its extremely unpredictable.  To me its like trying to predict if a RB is gonna be prone to fumbles.  You can look for it but basing your evaluation on that one trait is fruitless.   I would rather look at things like arm talent, mobility, intangibles, and playmaking ability that hasn't been drawn up by the coach when evaluating QBs.  I don't think the differences in accuracy among QBs is as significant as people try to make it out to be.  Most of the best QBs who get it done without elite physical tools do it through presnap reads and getting rid of the ball quickly to playmakers not because they are throwing dimes every play.  There is no QB who make a living off consistently hitting dimes down the field.  Even the great Aaron Rodgers makes his living hitting mostly routine throws based on correctly reading the defense pre-snap.  The dimes typically come every now and then.

Except accuracy matters on routine throws too. And I don't mean just throwing a catchable ball. I mean putting the ball in the right spot to avoid the defender and giving your WR the ability to run after the catch. 

[jrry32]

8 hours ago, VanS said:

We'll see when we get there.  I've acknowledged when I've been wrong about players before.  Right now the only success I see for Joe Burrow in the NFL is that fake short term success we see from QBs before the league figures them out (i.e Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, etc.).  If he turns out to be a great player that is consistently great then I'll have to see how he does it.   I never make judgments on things I have yet to see.

What type of craziness is this? You think a young QB having a down year means the NFL figured them out? Definitely don't look back at the careers of a number of franchise QBs, including Peyton Manning. Your QB takes are just so bad, dude.

Edited January 14, 2020 by jrry32