Jump to content
VanS

If you didn't think Joe Burrow was a 1st rounder last year, why would you think he's one this year?

Recommended Posts

20 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Uh huh. Here are the second through fourth seasons of two QBs:
QB A
29-19 record
1031/1651
62.4% completion percentage
12,679 passing yards (4226 per year)
7.7 YPA
85 passing TDs (28 per year)
53 Ints (18 per year)
89.9 passer rating

QB B
33-14 record
1054/1664
63.3% completion percentage
13,130 passing yards (4377 per year)
7.9 YPA
82 passing TDs (27 per year)
35 Ints (12 per year)
95.4 passer rating

QB A was Peyton Manning. QB B is Jared Goff. Both were 23 to 25 years old during those stretches. There are only 5 QBs in NFL history who posted 10,000+ passing yards, 80+ passing TDs, and a 95+ passer rating over their second through fourth seasons in the NFL. They are: Kurt Warner, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Dan Marino, and Jared Goff. I expect Patrick Mahomes (and maybe Deshaun Watson) to join the club next year.

http://pfref.com/tiny/YwZ9S

Different era.   Silly to compare stats from when Peyton was young to now.  With that said, if you wanna die on the Jared Goff hill go right ahead.  Most people have rightfully jumped off his bandwagon and concluded that it was Sean McVay that made him look better than he really was in 2017 and 2018.   Now it looks like the league has caught up with McVay and the real Jared Goff is back.

But hey if you think he's Peyton Manning I won't stop you.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/14/2020 at 10:15 PM, VanS said:

Agreed.  And I don't see much difference every Sunday between most QBs on that front.  

I do.  At least the ones I watch.  There was a clear and obvious difference in accuracy between Brees and Bridgewater.  Bridgewater would miss wide open guys, or put the ball in a spot that made the receiver work.  Brees very rarely missed throws like that.  

Not that Bridgewater was bad, he wasn't, but with the same supporting cast as Brees had clearly worse accuracy than Brees.  

I've heard Chiefs fans say similar things they noticed between Matt Cassell and Alex Smith.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/15/2020 at 1:20 AM, VanS said:

Different era.   Silly to compare stats from when Peyton was young to now.  With that said, if you wanna die on the Jared Goff hill go right ahead.  Most people have rightfully jumped off his bandwagon and concluded that it was Sean McVay that made him look better than he really was in 2017 and 2018.   Now it looks like the league has caught up with McVay and the real Jared Goff is back.

But hey if you think he's Peyton Manning I won't stop you.  

It won't be me dying on the Jared Goff hill. That's the fun part of all this. But I can't expect self awareness from the guy bleeding out on the Josh Dobbs dirt pile.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Of course someone managed to make this thread about Jared Goff. My goodness

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Counselor said:

Of course someone managed to make this thread about Jared Goff. My goodness

If I play this right, I can turn it into a Brady vs. Manning thread.

  • Like 10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/15/2020 at 12:56 AM, jrry32 said:

QB A was Peyton Manning. QB B is Jared Goff. Both were 23 to 25 years old during those stretches. There are only 5 QBs in NFL history who posted 10,000+ passing yards, 80+ passing TDs, and a 95+ passer rating over their second through fourth seasons in the NFL. They are: Kurt Warner, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Dan Marino, and Jared Goff. I expect Patrick Mahomes (and maybe Deshaun Watson) to join the club next year.

http://pfref.com/tiny/YwZ9S

This lacks context though. Different eras.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Danger said:

This lacks context though. Different eras.

That's only if you assume I'm arguing Goff is better than Manning. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

That's only if you assume I'm arguing Goff is better than Manning. 

Usually when one tries to put stats side by side like that, it's to imply that their performance is comparable.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Danger said:

Usually when one tries to put stats side by side like that, it's to imply that their performance is comparable.

The greater point was to shine a light on how well Goff has done for his age. Manning and Goff have had similar career trajectories, even down to the down fourth years. Haters gonna hate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some of Manning’s early years were bad even for that era. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/15/2020 at 7:15 AM, VanS said:

Agreed.  And I don't see much difference every Sunday between most QBs on that front.  The biggest difference I see in QBs is when it comes to reading the defense and making the decision of where to throw.  The actual mechanics of delivering the ball are very similar for most QBs.   I think people just like to hype up accuracy when its the trait with the least variability among QBs. 

Great point!  Lets talk on this. 

I do not think all NFL QBs are on the same level as far as accuracy.  I agree that they are for the most part all above average, there are some QB's that just have incredible ball placement and excellent accuracy.  This is one of the attributes that sets them over the top, like Aaron Rogers. Like another poster said, there have definitely been some NFL QBs with below average to average accuracy, Matt Cassell and Eli Manning come to mind. 

I do agree that the biggest difference in successful QBs in the NFL is reading the defense and making the correct decision.  A key part of what goes into that is a QBs vision and ability to see the field.  Some guys just get tunnel vision and for whatever reason cannot work through their reads.  It is a mental instinct thing like fight or flight that most of the times cannot be learned.  This to me is a defining trait of top QB prospects that bust in the NFL.  

Circling back, I find your statement ironic because you seem to focus on physical traits and the very subject of this entire thread is about Joe Burrow and how he is not worthy of being a top pick.  When in fact one of his key defining traits is that he has excellent field vision, reads the defense, and makes the correct decision.  On top of having excellent ball placement, which you apparently undervalue.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, warsawian said:

Circling back, I find your statement ironic because you seem to focus on physical traits and the very subject of this entire thread is about Joe Burrow and how he is not worthy of being a top pick.  When in fact one of his key defining traits is that he has excellent field vision, reads the defense, and makes the correct decision.  On top of having excellent ball placement, which you apparently undervalue.

If there were no coaches then this would be a great point.  But we know coaching can make a huge difference when it comes to presnap reads (especially in college).   Sean McVay famously was telling Jared Goff where to go with the ball presnap in 2017 and 2018.   This made Jared Goff look like an MVP candidate until the Super Bowl when Bill Belichek didn't show his true defense until the QB/coach mic was turned off.  This forced Goff to read the defense himself without the aide of his coach and we all saw how that turned out.  The explosive Rams turned in the worst offensive performance in Super Bowl history.

How sure are you that it wasn't Joe Brady and the LSU coaches that made Joe Burrow this season?  This is why I typically stick to ratings players primarily on their physical tools.  When you try to give a player credit for traits like reading a defense you can never be sure its really him or the coaches.  With Burrow its even more damning given how unimpressive he was the year before.  If this was Burrow's first year of significant action then I might be more open to your argument.  But given he showed none of this last year I'm gonna go with this being more about the coaches than Joe Burrow. 

Edited by VanS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, VanS said:

Sean McVay famously was telling Jared Goff where to go with the ball presnap in 2017 and 2018.   This made Jared Goff look like an MVP candidate until the Super Bowl when Bill Belichek didn't show his true defense until the QB/coach mic was turned off.  This forced Goff to read the defense himself without the aide of his coach and we all saw how that turned out. 

This is all wrong and very stupid.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The thread is about Joe Burrow. But guys can’t help but derail something to their own players.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...