NYRaider Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, SimonGruber said: Lol this game took some time off my life I’m down with Washington haha even tho they pulled it out Good call, Matt Ryan looks like he's starting to grasp the offense but it was a good game. I am playing Patterson in fantasy, smh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SimonGruber Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Good call, Matt Ryan looks like he's starting to grasp the offense but it was a good game. I am playing Patterson in fantasy, smh. Washington defense even brought Matty ice back to life good lord. Got lucky more than being a good call lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Just now, SimonGruber said: Washington defense even brought Matty ice back to life good lord. Got lucky more than being a good call lol Outside of the two pick 6's late against Tampa, Ryan has actually looked good. 283 yards/4 TD today in a close loss, 243 yards (75% comp)/2 TD last week in a win, 300 yards (76% comp)/ 2 TD vs Tampa in a game they were in until the very end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 6 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said: some my bets this week: SGP of C. Kirk O 40, James Conner U 35 Dak O 290, Zeke U 60.5, Pitts O 47.5, D. Singletary O 44 CAR ML, MIA -2.5, BAL 1.5, Chargers ML Parlays: Zeke U 61.5, KC ML, SEA ML, BAL ML SGP: KC ML, Devonta O 35, Hurts TD, Kelce TD This looks pretty bad but I hit on AJG 1st TD and that pretty much covered everything I bet this week lol. And then I doubled down on BAL and SEA MLs with 25% profit boosts so def made a profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 (edited) On 10/2/2021 at 11:17 PM, Broncofan said: With the injuries to different players there are 4 more props I’m going to back: Diontae Johnson O63.5 yards -110 - the O5.5 Rec is -150 with news that Claypool is out. So I’ll back the yards. Pack D doesn’t follow into the slot they mostly play sides. So Diontae should get his. Allen Lazard O2.5 catches -115 - MVS out he goes back to the #2 WR role. Ton of value at that number. Anthony Firkser O2.5 catches +140 - everyone is on Westbrook - Ikhine but Firkser was the safety valve option in the past. At worst I think he’s the 2nd option. At that plus money I’ll definitely take a stab. Mike Gesicki O3.5 catches +125 - As long as Brissett is the QB the safety valve play is there. Love the plus money value. Antonio Brown over 4.5 catches -110 - with Gronk out AB’s at worst the #3 option. No chance TB12 is going run heavy coming home. Jakobi Meyers O5.5 catches -120 - with James White out his target share explodes. Easy value here. TD props for the early games I’ll go back to the well with Corey Davis +240 / +2500 2+ and back Anthony Firkser at +400 / +5000 2+. Those are for 0.6 / 0.3 U. With BAL +105 ML & my other player props that puts me at 18U. I won’t push my stage so will pass on the day slate for games. That’s it for now - if the day slate goes well I’ll add on SNF / MNF. BOL! So BAL +105 ML with 4U on the line, wins big. Only play of the day. EASY MONEY. +4.2U Player props: 8-4 10-5 (Lazard O2.5 catches, Corey Davis O4.5 catches, Mclaurin O6.5 catches & Swift O4.5 catches ALL miss by 1....doh; EDIT - Brady O2.5 TD's whiffs hard - EDIT. Otherwise the 10 player props all hit easily except Firkser sweat (LOL). With the +170 for Wilson, +140 for Firkser & +125 for Gesicki, with a 4-W differntial, I get 4.4U profit with all that plus +. TD props - only 2, and 1 of them hit - Davis +250, while Firkser +400 no joy. Still, with the plus odds, a 0.5U+ profit. EDIT: SNF go 0 fo 2, so 1-3 now. Still have Brady O2.5 pass TD at +130, Meyers O5.5 catches at 1120, and Antonio Brown O4.5 catches -110. With such a good night, I'll throw a TD prop on Meyers at +250 / +2500 (0.6/ 0.2) and a hail mary on JJ Taylor at +500 / +8000 (0.4 / 0.2U). (EDIT: accounted for) EDIT - 2-1 player props and 0-2 long shot TD for SNF. Still for a 22U investment +9U a nice return week 4. Week 4 ATS / ML 1-0 +4.2U (BAL), Player props 12-6 (10-5 today, 2-1 on TNF, +5.8; TD props 1-3, -1.0U 9.0U profit so far before MNF 2021 - Week 1 - Week 4 before SNF/MNF: ATS 12-8; 3-2 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +21.1U profit Player props - 32-24, +6.8U TD - 4-12, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +21.8U so far Net balance: +49.9U profit so far (Week 1 - +43.8U Week 2 - -1.6U. Week 3 - -1.3U Week 4 before MNF - +9.0U) Edited October 4, 2021 by Broncofan SNF in 2-1 on player props and 0-2 on long shot TD. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 (edited) For MNF, I'll put 3 player props, and go for 1 TD longshot: -Allen O77.5 receiving - leading the team in targets, so some positive regression is coming IMO, Williams won't lead the team every week. -Williams O6.5 catches +125 - having said that, he's the X in the Lombardi O, so I'm OK with this at + money. -Parham O6.5 yards receiving - basically, it's 1 catch. I'll take that, because they do try and get him involved in the RZ....which makes for the long shot TD: Parham +500 +650 (WOW) TD / +8000 2+ (0.6 / 0.3) - YOLO, the Chargers keep trying to go his way in the RZ at least 2x a game. For the price, gotta take a bite. With a 9U profit so far, that's enough, won't go crazy and give back the week's earnings....BOL! Edited October 5, 2021 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 3 hours ago, Broncofan said: For MNF, I'll put 3 player props, and go for 1 TD longshot: -Allen O77.5 receiving - leading the team in targets, so some positive regression is coming IMO, Williams won't lead the team every week. -Williams O6.5 catches +125 - having said that, he's the X in the Lombardi O, so I'm OK with this at + money. -Parham O6.5 yards receiving - basically, it's 1 catch. I'll take that, because they do try and get him involved in the RZ....which makes for the long shot TD: Parham +500 TD / +8000 2+ (0.6 / 0.3) - YOLO, the Chargers keep trying to go his way in the RZ at least 2x a game. For the price, gotta take a bite. With a 9U profit so far, that's enough, won't go crazy and give back the week's earnings....BOL! I have a player prop for tomorrow. Carr: 23.5 completions (over), 281.5 passing yards (over), 1.5 TD passes (over) Renfrow: 4.5 receptions (over), 45.5 receiving yards (over), 1 TD scored Ruggs: 45.5 receiving yards (over) Raiders: Win ML $8 money ticket with a $1,000 payout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SimonGruber Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 7 hours ago, NYRaider said: I have a player prop for tomorrow. Carr: 23.5 completions (over), 281.5 passing yards (over), 1.5 TD passes (over) Renfrow: 4.5 receptions (over), 45.5 receiving yards (over), 1 TD scored Ruggs: 45.5 receiving yards (over) Raiders: Win ML $8 money ticket with a $1,000 payout. 280 for Carr seems like a shoe in passing offense is very diverse in ways to attack. Waller should be in play on catches or yards. Chargers have given up pretty good production to opposing TE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 Ended up tailing Swift O4.5 receptions so took that L. Still really liked it at + money so no regrets in narrowly missing it. Missed on Bucs -6.5 All that said, ended up hitting really big on this teaser: DAL +2 / GB -1 / KC -1 / TB -0.5 at +245. The Teasers continue to stay warm. I missed on another Teaser (SEA +10 / BAL +7 / NYG:NO u49 / CAR:DAL u59.5) but only had 1U on that one. We'll stay hunting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 Just locked in Raiders +10 / o44 points 7-point teaser. Only put a half unit on it. Considering either a Keenan Allen or Mike Williams prop, but I'm curious as to who will see more of Casey Heyward. Might just stay away from props altogether tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 (edited) 16 hours ago, Broncofan said: For MNF, I'll put 3 player props, and go for 1 TD longshot: -Allen O77.5 receiving - leading the team in targets, so some positive regression is coming IMO, Williams won't lead the team every week. -Williams O6.5 catches +125 - having said that, he's the X in the Lombardi O, so I'm OK with this at + money. -Parham O6.5 yards receiving - basically, it's 1 catch. I'll take that, because they do try and get him involved in the RZ....which makes for the long shot TD: Parham +500 TD / +8000 2+ (0.6 / 0.3) - YOLO, the Chargers keep trying to go his way in the RZ at least 2x a game. For the price, gotta take a bite. With a 9U profit so far, that's enough, won't go crazy and give back the week's earnings....BOL! Adding 2 more props, the line is too good: Herbert O2.5 TD's +160 - I see this as a 40-50 percent chance, but it's being paid out as implied <30 percent probability. That's worth taking a shot on Carr O24.5 completions +100 - if the extra needed completion bites me, so be it, but as @NYRaider pointed out, this is one of the safest bets around - I'll take the extra number and get +money. That makes 5 plays and 1 long-shot TD tonight, been a good week, let's end it on a high note! BOL! Edited October 4, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 On 10/1/2021 at 6:59 PM, Broncofan said: The TEN pass D is incredibly leaky. Honestly, an injury is the only way I see Davis missing on this. I have him at 7-8 catches and 80+ yards, so this is a hammer spot at +135. IMO this should be a -120 line, +135 is a massive upside play. Wasn't a bad play at all, but Crowder's presence in the lineup certainly had an impact on this one hitting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: Wasn't a bad play at all, but Crowder's presence in the lineup certainly had an impact on this one hitting. It did but Davis was missed on 3rd down to seal the game then in OT 2x wide open (Wilson threw to the TE). As long as the prop stays that low in a positive game script and + money to boot I’ll be on it regularly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, Broncofan said: It did but Davis was missed on 3rd down to seal the game then in OT 2x wide open (Wilson threw to the TE). As long as the prop stays that low in a positive game script and + money to boot I’ll be on it regularly. We shall see. With Elijah Moore set to return, I'll likely stay away from Davis until we see how that target distribution shakes out with all top 3 options on the field. At least for receptions. I like his aDOT and might jump on a yardage prop for him. I don't love the fact Davis failed to hit this even with the game going to OT and the Jets posting by far their highest point total of the year. Again, love the props you're mentioning here. More so just thinking out loud through some of these. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 Went 4-2 this week NCAA/ NFL. “worst” week so far but still in the positive (Iowa 2.5u helped) Iowa -3.5 ✅ Vikings ML ❌ Colts ML ✅ Panthers +4.5 ❌ Cardinals +4 ✅ Ravens +1 ✅ 22-6 on the year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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