Weekly Bets Thread

[SimonGruber]

3 hours ago, NYRaider said:

#29/#30 defense give me Matt Ryan at home. Washington's secondary has been terrible this year and Ryan looked more comfortable in the offense the last two weeks. (75% comp) 

Atlanta was competitive against Tampa Bay until MR's 2 late pick 6's. I think this is the week that Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts really start to get going. 

Sidebar took an L on Kyle Pitts over 54.5 when I saw he didn’t get catches to till the final drive I believe I wanted to puke. I hear you trying to gauge effort and if a team will show up is hard to say the least. I think the defense shows up and gives max effort. 

[Broncofan]

FWIW Pitts has been such a bad beat wager-wise.  I only took him week 1, then wanted the ATL O to show it to me - and man, they're awful.  Arthur Smith is not impressing me at all - so vanilla, nothing even close to creative to try and get that O going.  And with Ridley & Pitts on that team, it's criminal how poorly they've played.  Yes, Matt Ryan looks done - he's shell shocked to point where he dumps off early, much like Eli did in his last couple of years of his career.

Owner Arthur Blank's decision to avoid the full-on rebuild looks like a massive error.    But back to Pitts - if he keeps getting this type of volume, he's going to hit the overs.  I probably won't take it this week given the WFT pass rush is in a get right situation - but he's out there, running routes on almost every play.  That's usually the biggest obstacle to rookie TE production - he's being used as a move TE / big WR.   Just no targets with Matt Ryan seeing ghosts, Eli-end-of-career style.  But he's definitely a guy I'll start looking at Week 5+ onwards for the overs (PSA - until the Vegas lines go up, keep thinking overs for Logan Thomas, Andrews & Hock, too).

 

Edited September 29, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Other sidebar - Jack Del Rio needs to be canned ASAP.   No reason why that WFT D is this bad.  
 

Back to ‘capping. 

[SmittyBacall]

The more I look into it, the more I like the Jags to hold tomorrow at +7.5. 
Their D is quietly stingy, and the Bengals are likely to be without our two best secondary starters in Bates and Awuzie. Higgins’ status is also up in the air, though his absence doesn’t worry me much. 

My favourite prop for tomorrow:

Joe Burrow UNDER 30.5 Passing attempts -130. This has hit in 3/3 games so far this season (27, 30, 18) and Thursday is another good spot to see this trend continue. As Burrow returns from injury and the OL continues to be up and down in pass blocking, the running game has been the emphasis for this offense - it has been stated in Burrow/ZT interviews, and proven within the first 3 weeks of play. I actually expect a lot of running on both sides of the ball (both vs capable run defenses), leading to long clock-milking drives. Game script also favours this line, as I expect the Bengals to stay in the drivers seat for most of the game. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

The more I look into it, the more I like the Jags to hold tomorrow at +7.5. 
Their D is quietly stingy, and the Bengals are likely to be without our two best secondary starters in Bates and Awuzie. Higgins’ status is also up in the air, though his absence doesn’t worry me much. 

My favourite prop for tomorrow:

Joe Burrow UNDER 30.5 Passing attempts -130. This has hit in 3/3 games so far this season (27, 30, 18) and Thursday is another good spot to see this trend continue. As Burrow returns from injury and the OL continues to be up and down in pass blocking, the running game has been the emphasis for this offense - it has been stated in Burrow/ZT interviews, and proven within the first 3 weeks of play. I actually expect a lot of running on both sides of the ball (both vs capable run defenses), leading to long clock-milking drives. Game script also favours this line, as I expect the Bengals to stay in the drivers seat for most of the game. 

As long as CIN is leading, and Mixon is healthy, U30.5 seems really strong.

[El Ramster]

Let’s go bengals. Do not lose you suckas. 

[SmittyBacall]

18 minutes ago, El Ramster said:

Let’s go bengals. Do not lose you suckas. 

It would be so on brand for them to have a huge let down game after kicking Steeler butt.

[Broncofan]

One player prop out early that I'm hammering - Jonathan Taylor O63.5.   Versus MIA's run D, and the likelihood that they can keep it close - expect a big dose of #28 this week.

For TNF, 3 player props and 1 longshot TD prop:

Boyd O5.5 catches and O58.5 yards both -105 - JAX loses their best CB, and their slot CB is by far their biggest liability.  Chase props are not out yet, but I'll consider it.

Chark O3.5 catches -125 -  Going to be a ton of garbage time.   Chark getting heavily targeted, terrible catch rate, but volume is king.

For the longshot TD prop, a major value play - newly acquired TE Dan Arnold.   The only way this voids is if he's inactive - but he's +450 / +7500 for 2+.    I'll take 1 TD, but the TE gets targeted a TON, and this is why they chose to get him along with a 3rd for CJ Henderson.  You can question the RL value of that return, but it's hard to question that he's going to be targeted.   There are no yardage/reception props, if there were, I'd be on it too.

I lean to a CIN win with a high level of confidence, but not at all comfortable with that -7.5 spread.   So sticking with those 3 player props, and 1 TD prop - with an eye out on what Chase ends up with (interested in the yardage, not the receptions).

[SaveOurSonics]

7 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Joe Burrow UNDER 30.5 Passing attempts -130.

 

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

One player prop out early that I'm hammering - Jonathan Taylor O63.5

 

I love both of these. Great finds. 

[SaveOurSonics]

FWIW, I've been really doing well with 3-way, 7-point teasers. I know the consensus is typically to fade parlays/teasers, but I think a good lot of us are intelligent enough about the game to effectively choose 3 lines with a full TD advantage, be those spreads or O/Us, especially at +125 juice. 

This past week I hit on ARI pk / DEN -3 / TEN +2.5 and BUF -0.5 / CAR +0.5 / CAR u50 total points. Both were fairly sweat free. 

 

Here are a few of the 7-point adjusted lines for this week. Curious to hear any feedback on these. 

Bengals -1 vJAX 

Lions +9.5 vCHI 

Titans pk vNYJ

Titans/Jets u51 points 

Dolphins/Colts u49.5

Panthers/Cowboys u57.5

Giants +14.5 vSaints

Giants/Saints u48.5 

Chiefs -0.5 vPHI

Bills -9 vHOU

Seahawks +9.5 vSF

Packers pk vPIT

Packers/Steelers u53

Buccaneers pk vNE

Bucs/Patriots u56

 

It's intentionally a long list. My practice is to start here and begin asking myself which of these I feel are likeliest to fail. I start to whittle it down throughout the week until I've decided on one or two optimal 3-way tickets. Bolded are the ones I'm currently preferring. 

[sp6488]

3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

FWIW, I've been really doing well with 3-way, 7-point teasers. I know the consensus is typically to fade parlays/teasers, but I think a good lot of us are intelligent enough about the game to effectively choose 3 lines with a full TD advantage, be those spreads or O/Us, especially at +125 juice. 

This past week I hit on ARI pk / DEN -3 / TEN +2.5 and BUF -0.5 / CAR +0.5 / CAR u50 total points. Both were fairly sweat free. 

 

Here are a few of the 7-point adjusted lines for this week. Curious to hear any feedback on these. 

Bengals -1 vJAX 

Lions +9.5 vCHI 

Titans pk vNYJ

Titans/Jets u51 points 

Dolphins/Colts u49.5

Panthers/Cowboys u57.5

Giants +14.5 vSaints

Giants/Saints u48.5 

Chiefs -0.5 vPHI

Bills -9 vHOU

Seahawks +9.5 vSF

Packers pk vPIT

Packers/Steelers u53

Buccaneers pk vNE

Bucs/Patriots u56

 

It's intentionally a long list. My practice is to start here and begin asking myself which of these I feel are likeliest to fail. I start to whittle it down throughout the week until I've decided on one or two optimal 3-way tickets. Bolded are the ones I'm currently preferring. 

The Titans and Chiefs picks are basically made for a tease, ha.

[SaveOurSonics]

12 hours ago, sp6488 said:

The Titans and Chiefs picks are basically made for a tease, ha.

I'm probably overthinking it but Titans give me a weird feeling this weekend. Both top receivers down which is going to require quite the adjustment for Tannehill. It's not like that Titans defense is good enough to control a game and I'd say the Jets have already played 3 defenses better than this one. 

Again I'm probably overthinking it. I personally think Chiefs and Buccaneers are the locked and loaded teaser plays of the week this week. I don't see any way the Chiefs are dropping 3 straight to the hands of a Sirianni team and there's no way Brady goes into Foxborough and loses. 

Cowboys +2.5 and WFT +5.5 also starting to grow on me. Don't see Darnold pushing this team to 4-0 without CMC and WFT is losing some points here due to getting blown out by a Super Bowl contender. 

[LeotheLion]

16 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

FWIW, I've been really doing well with 3-way, 7-point teasers. I know the consensus is typically to fade parlays/teasers, but I think a good lot of us are intelligent enough about the game to effectively choose 3 lines with a full TD advantage, be those spreads or O/Us, especially at +125 juice. 

This past week I hit on ARI pk / DEN -3 / TEN +2.5 and BUF -0.5 / CAR +0.5 / CAR u50 total points. Both were fairly sweat free. 

 

Here are a few of the 7-point adjusted lines for this week. Curious to hear any feedback on these. 

Bengals -1 vJAX 

Lions +9.5 vCHI 

Titans pk vNYJ

Titans/Jets u51 points 

Dolphins/Colts u49.5

Panthers/Cowboys u57.5

Giants +14.5 vSaints

Giants/Saints u48.5 

Chiefs -0.5 vPHI

Bills -9 vHOU

Seahawks +9.5 vSF

Packers pk vPIT

Packers/Steelers u53

Buccaneers pk vNE

Bucs/Patriots u56

The 6 point tease I have this week is Chiefs -1, Seahawks +8.5, and Saints -1.5. Saints with Jamesis gives me the most concern but this is the Saints home opener so I think that energy will help get a lead early and the Giants are also terrible. For that reason, I'd stay away from the other side and play the Giants. That game could get ugly quickly.

Of the ones you listed, the one I would 100% stay away from is the Lions +9.5. Goff has historically been awful vs Chicago and there is a decent shot at rain. The Lions defense against the Ravens gives me optimism that they could be okay this year but their first 2 games were also terrible defensively. If there is a team that the Bears could find some offensive identity against, it is Detroit at home.

I do like TAM in a pick'em. I'll probably play them to cover depending if I am up for the early slate or not. I also haven't read up on the Texans, but if it is Mills again then that is a good play. If Tyrod has a shot to go then I'd stay away from -9 for the Bills.

Edited September 30, 2021 by LeotheLion

[SaveOurSonics]

On 9/28/2021 at 7:35 AM, LeotheLion said:

Who is the 2nd team to throw in a tease this week along with the Chiefs? I like Saints down to 1.5 home vs Giants. Giants are so bad and I think this is the Saints home opener. Jamesis will never not scare me on a tease but he can throw a few picks and Saints can still pull it out.

 Also like Seattle up to +8.5. Seattle always plays San Francisco tough and I don't think they are losing 3 in a row. Or at least if they do, I don't see it getting more than 1 score away. Maybe I'll do a 3 teamer on it. 

If you're only looking for 2 teams, I think Tampa Bay at a pk is free money this week to pair with the Chiefs. 

 

I'm currently in the process of looking for a 3rd leg and like TEN pk, SEA +9.5, DET +9.5, NYG +14.5, DAL +2.5, and WFT +5.5. Packers at pk is also enticing but something about betting against good teams coming off tough losses (Steelers) always leaves me hesitant. 

[SBLIII]

On 9/29/2021 at 10:28 AM, NYRaider said:

How are we feeling about Carolina (+5) at Dallas? 2/3 the only teams left undefeated ATS. 

 

Carolina ML. Not really but given the odds might be worth it and hope the defense forces turnovers.