Weekly Bets Thread

[SmittyBacall]

On 9/29/2021 at 11:40 AM, SmittyBacall said:

The more I look into it, the more I like the Jags to hold tomorrow at +7.5. 
Their D is quietly stingy, and the Bengals are likely to be without our two best secondary starters in Bates and Awuzie. Higgins’ status is also up in the air, though his absence doesn’t worry me much. 

My favourite prop for tomorrow:

Joe Burrow UNDER 30.5 Passing attempts -130. This has hit in 3/3 games so far this season (27, 30, 18) and Thursday is another good spot to see this trend continue. As Burrow returns from injury and the OL continues to be up and down in pass blocking, the running game has been the emphasis for this offense - it has been stated in Burrow/ZT interviews, and proven within the first 3 weeks of play. I actually expect a lot of running on both sides of the ball (both vs capable run defenses), leading to long clock-milking drives. Game script also favours this line, as I expect the Bengals to stay in the drivers seat for most of the game. 

+7.5 HIT.

Burrow under 30.5 attempts MISS. He finished with two attempts too many in a game where they were down 14-0 at half. Sucks that I missed tonight (and to whoever tailed), but this is a pick to attack moving forward. The Bengals will happily run the ball if game script permits. 

[Broncofan]

So I haven't finalized my ATS/ML plays except for  BAL ML, but a bunch of great player props came out, and a ton at +money, where I'm definitely in on, namely:

Zach Wilson O1.5 pass TD's +170 - with the TEN pass D, I don't know how you give that kind of payout for 2 pass TD's.   As long as Corey Davis is healthy, Wilson's got a decent shot at 2, even 3 TD's (in a losing effort) vs. TEN.   

Tom Brady O2.5 pass TD's +130 - we really think TB12 is going to hand off if TAM gets close the EZ?   Right, me neither.   This prop on TNF hit in the 2Q lol.   

Jonathan Taylor O63.5 rushing yards -125 - this one is already up to 70.5.  I'd still probably hammer this.

Nick Chubb O77.5 yards rushing -110 - the MIN D is uber vulnerable to the run, and Chubb's never gone below 84 yards this year, and took a big timeshare last week.     Very confident, would have doubled up here, except for

Corey Davis O4.5 catches +135 - 2U stake - holy ****, the only way Davis doesn't get this is injury.   TEN's secondary is no match for him (although TEN is still winning).  

Corey Davis O52.5 yards -110 - 2.2U stake - same thinking.

Deandre Swift O4.5 catches +120 - he's already seeing 7+ targets a game, and Campbell wants to use him more.  At +money, sign me up.

Terry Mclaurin O6.5 catches +125 - the pass O revolves around him, and ATL can't cover him.   On the flip side, the ATL O should keep this relatively close, so it's not just a keep-away game.   

 

This already gets me to 10U, and I've not even included the BAL ML play, and any TD / RACE props.   I generally stick to a 20U limit for Sunday's games, so I'll stop there.   To be clear, I don't expect all of these props to hit - but I think 5-6/8 will hit - and with 5/8 props at +120 or better, well, I'm pretty pumped.  

 

 

 

 

[Nozizaki]

9 hours ago, Broncofan said:

So I haven't finalized my ATS/ML plays except for  BAL ML, but a bunch of great player props came out, and a ton at +money, where I'm definitely in on, namely:

I'll get in on this early, why lean Baltimore? Both teams seem banged up, but I would guess that Baltimore is hurting more from their injuries. Seems like it will be a low scoring, sloppy game that should favor Denver since they are at home and have a good enough run defense to force Baltimore to throw a lot more than they would like to.

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, Nozizaki said:

I'll get in on this early, why lean Baltimore? Both teams seem banged up, but I would guess that Baltimore is hurting more from their injuries. Seems like it will be a low scoring, sloppy game that should favor Denver since they are at home and have a good enough run defense to force Baltimore to throw a lot more than they would like to.

The matchups all lean to BAL.  Coaching & ST also there.  Our Forum GD thread has full analysis.   Read the posts there - @lomaxgrUK & I & others posted in greater detail there.  
 

 

Edited October 1, 2021 by Broncofan

[El Ramster]

@Broncofanthougths on the rams game. I’ve gone back and can’t find it. I also think Bal wins. Am I wrong for that? 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, El Ramster said:

@Broncofanthougths on the rams game. I’ve gone back and can’t find it. I also think Bal wins. Am I wrong for that? 

I mean, right now LAR is the most complete team, with TAM's secondary in shambles.   Until Kyler shows me he can handle pressure consistently, I'm going to back a more complete team.   I'm not sure I want the -4.5, though, but if you're talking ML, I'd definitely go there.   The big problem for 'Zona besides handling the pass rush and Ramsey Island (although their diversity in the WR corps helps them a lot more this year than last season), is they don't have anyone who can handle Kupp, let alone LAR's WR depth.   

I think ARI has a playoff worthy team, but honestly, the NFCW has 3 playoff worthy teams IMO.    The West has suddenly become the Murderer's row of both conferences (although I expect LV's D and OL to regress, their competition has been very meh, and DEN's O is about to face serious challenges given the loss of Jeudy/Hamler, and our G's, along with key losses with LB Jewell, Chubb and Darby on D). 

[SaveOurSonics]

20 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Tom Brady O2.5 pass TD's +130 - we really think TB12 is going to hand off if TAM gets close the EZ?   Right, me neither.   This prop on TNF hit in the 2Q lol.   

Jonathan Taylor O63.5 rushing yards -125 - this one is already up to 70.5.  I'd still probably hammer this.

Nick Chubb O77.5 yards rushing -110 - the MIN D is uber vulnerable to the run, and Chubb's never gone below 84 yards this year, and took a big timeshare last week.     Very confident, would have doubled up here, except for

Corey Davis O4.5 catches +135 - 2U stake - holy ****, the only way Davis doesn't get this is injury.   TEN's secondary is no match for him (although TEN is still winning).  

Corey Davis O52.5 yards -110 - 2.2U stake - same thinking.

Deandre Swift O4.5 catches +120

I really like these. Just to play devil's advocate, are you at all worried about the uncertain target distribution with Crowder entering the fold? That + Tennessee missing a lot of their offensive firepower to drive up the score leaves me somewhat hesitant. While Davis has hit the over in 2/3 games so far, they have of course been without Crowder and the two that hit were by the narrowest of margins. 

The Brady prop looks great. Only reason that wouldn't hit is if he gets one or two of those patented goal line sneaks. 

The Swift prop feels like free money. Good find. 

[Broncofan]

46 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I really like these. Just to play devil's advocate, are you at all worried about the uncertain target distribution with Crowder entering the fold? That + Tennessee missing a lot of their offensive firepower to drive up the score leaves me somewhat hesitant. While Davis has hit the over in 2/3 games so far, they have of course been without Crowder and the two that hit were by the narrowest of margins. 

The Brady prop looks great. Only reason that wouldn't hit is if he gets one or two of those patented goal line sneaks. 

The Swift prop feels like free money. Good find. 

The TEN pass D is incredibly leaky.    Honestly, an injury is the only way I see Davis missing on this.   I have him at 7-8 catches and 80+ yards, so this is a hammer spot at +135.    IMO this should be a -120 line, +135 is a massive upside play.

Edited October 2, 2021 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

I said Bengals ML, Jaguars +7.5. Betting god, lol.

[Broncofan]

 

On 10/1/2021 at 12:31 AM, Broncofan said:

So I haven't finalized my ATS/ML plays except for  BAL ML, but a bunch of great player props came out, and a ton at +money, where I'm definitely in on, namely:

Zach Wilson O1.5 pass TD's +170 - with the TEN pass D, I don't know how you give that kind of payout for 2 pass TD's.   As long as Corey Davis is healthy, Wilson's got a decent shot at 2, even 3 TD's (in a losing effort) vs. TEN.   

Tom Brady O2.5 pass TD's +130 - we really think TB12 is going to hand off if TAM gets close the EZ?   Right, me neither.   This prop on TNF hit in the 2Q lol.   

Jonathan Taylor O63.5 rushing yards -125 - this one is already up to 70.5.  I'd still probably hammer this.

Nick Chubb O77.5 yards rushing -110 - the MIN D is uber vulnerable to the run, and Chubb's never gone below 84 yards this year, and took a big timeshare last week.     Very confident, would have doubled up here, except for

Corey Davis O4.5 catches +135 - 2U stake - holy ****, the only way Davis doesn't get this is injury.   TEN's secondary is no match for him (although TEN is still winning).  

Corey Davis O52.5 yards -110 - 2.2U stake - same thinking.

Deandre Swift O4.5 catches +120 - he's already seeing 7+ targets a game, and Campbell wants to use him more.  At +money, sign me up.

Terry Mclaurin O6.5 catches +125 - the pass O revolves around him, and ATL can't cover him.   On the flip side, the ATL O should keep this relatively close, so it's not just a keep-away game.   

 

This already gets me to 10U, and I've not even included the BAL ML +105 play, and any TD / RACE props.   I generally stick to a 20U limit for Sunday's games, so I'll stop there.   To be clear, I don't expect all of these props to hit - but I think 5-6/8 will hit - and with 5/8 props at +120 or better, well, I'm pretty pumped.  

 

 

 

 

 

With the injuries to different players there are 4 more props I’m going to back: 

Diontae Johnson O63.5 yards -110 - the O5.5 Rec is -150 with news that Claypool is out.  So I’ll back the yards. Pack D doesn’t follow into the slot they mostly play sides.   So Diontae should get his.   
 

Allen Lazard O2.5 catches -115 - MVS out he goes back to the #2 WR role.   Ton of value at that number.  
 

Anthony Firkser O2.5 catches +140 - everyone is on Westbrook - Ikhine but Firkser was the safety valve option in the past.   At worst I think he’s the 2nd option.   At that plus money I’ll definitely take a stab.  

Mike Gesicki O3.5 catches +125 - As long as Brissett is the QB the safety valve play is there.  Love the plus money value. 

Antonio Brown over 4.5 catches -110 - with Gronk out AB’s at worst the #3 option.   No chance TB12 is going run heavy coming home.  
 

Jakobi Meyers O5.5 catches -120 - with James White out his target share explodes.   Easy value here.   
 

TD props for the early games I’ll go back to the well with Corey Davis +240 / +2500 2+ and back Anthony Firkser at +400 / +5000 2+.     Those are for 0.6 / 0.3 U.   
 

With BAL +105 ML & my other player props that puts me at 18U.   I won’t push my stage so will pass on the day slate for games.   

That’s it for now - if the day slate goes well I’ll add on SNF / MNF.  BOL! 
 

 

Edited October 3, 2021 by Broncofan

[N4L]

On 10/1/2021 at 9:54 AM, Broncofan said:

I mean, right now LAR is the most complete team, with TAM's secondary in shambles.   Until Kyler shows me he can handle pressure consistently, I'm going to back a more complete team.   I'm not sure I want the -4.5, though, but if you're talking ML, I'd definitely go there.   The big problem for 'Zona besides handling the pass rush and Ramsey Island (although their diversity in the WR corps helps them a lot more this year than last season), is they don't have anyone who can handle Kupp, let alone LAR's WR depth.   

I think ARI has a playoff worthy team, but honestly, the NFCW has 3 playoff worthy teams IMO.    The West has suddenly become the Murderer's row of both conferences (although I expect LV's D and OL to regress, their competition has been very meh, and DEN's O is about to face serious challenges given the loss of Jeudy/Hamler, and our G's, along with key losses with LB Jewell, Chubb and Darby on D). 

I don't trust the cards yet. Need to see more from them 

Ramsey should follow Hopkins and that favors the rams. Kyler has other weapons, but Hopkins is his clear safety blanket and forcing him to go elsewhere consistently will throw him off his game enough to give their whole offense issues imo 

Cards defense can be had on the back end. Mcvay has always drawn up good route combos to cause major issues for secondaries. Stafford has a great deep ball 

I think it will be a high scoring game but I don't want to take the over. I bought the -4 down to 3 for extra juice. I played the over 29 rams team total as well because I think they will continue to throw regardless of their lead. If it starts slow I will probably do a live bet in the mid40s for the over 

LOVE Tampa. Mac Jones is a rookie who has struggled mightily at times. Bowles is a top 5 DC. I usually don't try to buy too much into the revenge game narrative but Brady is one petty SOB who will push that team towards a very sharp performance. NE front is very good but ultimately Tampas skill pos players will win enough matchups to score enough to make NE play in a position they don't want to be in, which is playing from behind and needing to throw 

[11sanchez11]

some my bets this week:

SGP of C. Kirk O 40, James Conner U 35

Dak O 290, Zeke U 60.5, Pitts O 47.5, D. Singletary O 44

CAR ML, MIA -2.5, BAL 1.5, Chargers ML

Parlays:

Zeke U 61.5, KC ML, SEA ML, BAL ML

SGP: KC ML, Devonta O 35, Hurts TD, Kelce TD

 

[SimonGruber]

On 9/30/2021 at 9:31 PM, Broncofan said:

So I haven't finalized my ATS/ML plays except for  BAL ML, but a bunch of great player props came out, and a ton at +money, where I'm definitely in on, namely:

Zach Wilson O1.5 pass TD's +170 - with the TEN pass D, I don't know how you give that kind of payout for 2 pass TD's.   As long as Corey Davis is healthy, Wilson's got a decent shot at 2, even 3 TD's (in a losing effort) vs. TEN.   

Tom Brady O2.5 pass TD's +130 - we really think TB12 is going to hand off if TAM gets close the EZ?   Right, me neither.   This prop on TNF hit in the 2Q lol.   

Jonathan Taylor O63.5 rushing yards -125 - this one is already up to 70.5.  I'd still probably hammer this.

Nick Chubb O77.5 yards rushing -110 - the MIN D is uber vulnerable to the run, and Chubb's never gone below 84 yards this year, and took a big timeshare last week.     Very confident, would have doubled up here, except for

Corey Davis O4.5 catches +135 - 2U stake - holy ****, the only way Davis doesn't get this is injury.   TEN's secondary is no match for him (although TEN is still winning).  

Corey Davis O52.5 yards -110 - 2.2U stake - same thinking.

Deandre Swift O4.5 catches +120 - he's already seeing 7+ targets a game, and Campbell wants to use him more.  At +money, sign me up.

Terry Mclaurin O6.5 catches +125 - the pass O revolves around him, and ATL can't cover him.   On the flip side, the ATL O should keep this relatively close, so it's not just a keep-away game.   

 

This already gets me to 10U, and I've not even included the BAL ML play, and any TD / RACE props.   I generally stick to a 20U limit for Sunday's games, so I'll stop there.   To be clear, I don't expect all of these props to hit - but I think 5-6/8 will hit - and with 5/8 props at +120 or better, well, I'm pretty pumped.  

 

 

 

 

Rided with you on Corey Davis yards the Catches was juiced to hell or else would of took it too👊🏼

[SmittyBacall]

Kyle Juszcyzk is +500 to score 1 TD, and +8000(!) to score twice.

With Mitchell ruled out already, and Sermon’s poor showing last week, it’s incredibly value for a player who will very likely be the first option near the goal line. He received multiple carries there last week, scoring once.

[SimonGruber]

On 9/29/2021 at 1:36 AM, NYRaider said:

#29/#30 defense give me Matt Ryan at home. Washington's secondary has been terrible this year and Ryan looked more comfortable in the offense the last two weeks. (75% comp) 

Atlanta was competitive against Tampa Bay until MR's 2 late pick 6's. I think this is the week that Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts really start to get going. 

Lol this game took some time off my life I’m down with Washington haha even tho they pulled it out