Weekly Bets Thread

[MWil23]

3 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

That's a tough game to call. The Browns are also going into their second straight road game after they barely just squeaked past the Vikings and their offense really struggled for most of the game. The Browns defense has been stingy the last 3 weeks against the Texans/Bears with rookie QB's playing and the Vikings. Week 1 Mahomes lit their secondary up down the stretch. 

You're not wrong on anything here necessarily. albeit the 3 turnovers in the 2nd half is really what cost them the game. And as for last week, Cousins was absolutely red hot, and they really shut him and the running game down, so we shall see what happens.

Losing Ronnie Harrison Week 1 really hurt, as did not having Delpit available in any capacity going against the Chiefs.

Since Week 2, JOK has earned a starting job and is playing at an elite level as a LB/Apex defender. 

3 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

It will be a good game and one that I probably stay away from just because as you said it can go either way. But if the game comes down to the end and I have to trust 1 QB to make big plays, I'm trusting Herbert over Baker.

Yeah, I generally always stay away from Browns bets, except for Week 1 because taking the OVER in that game was easy money IMO.

As for Baker, I just posted in our Browns forum in the Baker thread a pretty good film article on the shoulder injury and subsequent impact. The visual pictures are pretty interesting.

[Ray Reed]

3 hours ago, MWil23 said:

Just a pure gut feeling here:

I actually like Cleveland +1 against the Chargers this week. They're coming off of a great and emotional MNF win against a divisional opponent, and the last 2 weeks Cleveland has been stingy defensively. While Baker has struggled, the Chargers are giving up 140+ rushing yards per game, and the Browns are one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL.

I won't be surprised either way here, especially given the injuries to Wills at LT, Jarvis Landry, and the clear issues that Mayfield has had since dislocating his left shoulder, but I think that the Browns pose a unique challenge to the Charger's potent offense with their front 4 as a pass rush and their secondary.

Same

[NYRaider]

16 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

You're not wrong on anything here necessarily. albeit the 3 turnovers in the 2nd half is really what cost them the game. And as for last week, Cousins was absolutely red hot, and they really shut him and the running game down, so we shall see what happens.

Losing Ronnie Harrison Week 1 really hurt, as did not having Delpit available in any capacity going against the Chiefs.

Since Week 2, JOK has earned a starting job and is playing at an elite level as a LB/Apex defender. 

Yeah, I generally always stay away from Browns bets, except for Week 1 because taking the OVER in that game was easy money IMO.

As for Baker, I just posted in our Browns forum in the Baker thread a pretty good film article on the shoulder injury and subsequent impact. The visual pictures are pretty interesting.

The Browns are legit this season, your defense looks light years better. But the Chiefs hung up 400 yards/33 points against you and Tyrod Taylor started the game 10/11 with 2 TD before he got hurt. Shutting down the Vikings was impressive but you guys giving Mills/Fields fits is to be expected. 

Either way though both team are very good so it's a tough call either way. The Browns have a good shot, think it really comes down to if Baker can make more plays than Herbert in clutch time.

[agarcia34]

Waiting for the line to hit +3 for the Seattle game. In what world should the Rams be favored by +2.5 or 3 in Seattle.

Also already bet on 49ers +5.5 

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

7-1-2 ATS on Thursday night football with Russell. 

Immovable object, meet irresistable force.

LAR is 8-2-1 last 11, and 7-1 in their last 8 prime time games, all with McVay as coach.   And overall they're 15-5 SU following a loss and 13-6-1.  And as we all know, those L's were with Jared Goff as QB.

The other intangible - Carroll has really put the handcuffs on the SEA O, making it more run-heavy.   That's not really how to leverage their best players.     Obviously it's tempting with Ramsey there, to say it's the right call - but again, Carroll's a game management liability IMO the last 2+ seasons, rather than an asset (he's really great at the other aspects of team building, etc. - but game management has really gotten so conservative I almost never take SEA as a heavy favorite).

Rams are just a far more talented team, with major mismatches across the board.   Add in that both Lockett and Metcalf are gimpy, along with Carson - it's just a massive mismatch.   The back-door cover is always there - but as long as it stays at 2.5 or less, I'll back the Rams here. 

Edited October 6, 2021 by Broncofan

[MikeT14]

2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

The Seahawks are a weird team to bet on

Every year since Russ. 

[SaveOurSonics]

As a Seahawks fan, I'm with @Broncofan here. Seattle is a paper tiger this season and walked out of Santa Clara with a W despite looking pretty horrid through the majority of that game. SF just about doubled our yardage output, but a boneheaded fumble by Trenton Cannon on a kickoff + Robbie Gould being hurt pregame completely shifted the direction of that matchup. 

I fully expect the Rams, coming off of a rather embarrassing home loss to Arizona, to take it to us. I expect McVay to come out firing with his new QB in their first primetime game together. We also consistently struggle against this Rams defense. They just have our number. Our secondary is going through a lot of trial and error right now and the offense is sorely missing Eskridge's speed threat. 

27-13 Rams. 

[SaveOurSonics]

14 hours ago, Broncofan said:

For TNF, I have a few early leans:

LAR -2.5 - LAR coming off a loss are ATS kings.   SEA used to have the "never lose at home in prime time" tag, but that mojo has worn off the last year or so.     This is a brutal mismatch, I'll take this before we get to the 3 pt threshold

Tyler Higbee O3.5 catches / O38.5 yards - SEA continues to have issues defending the TE.   This is a prime spot for Higbee.   

Russell Wilson O20.5 rushing yards - something's up with Chris Carson, and Lockett is hurting.   With Everett on IR, this means more Wilson scrambling magic - heavy pass rush teams also give up more run yards to QB's who get outside, so I'm going on the over here.  

No TD props out yet, but I'm also not seeing any high leverage targets from either team - sadly, ppl's roles are well-known.   Probably sitting out the TD prop on TNF.

Love the Higbee props. Our LBs have been miserable in coverage this year. 

Was going to say I don't feel great about that Russ prop, but I looked into it more and he's comfortably hit the Over here in 5 of his last 6 games against the Rams. 

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Love the Higbee props. Our LBs have been miserable in coverage this year. 

Was going to say I don't feel great about that Russ prop, but I looked into it more and he's comfortably hit the Over here in 5 of his last 6 games against the Rams. 

The key is teams that have great pass rushes also tend to give up chunk running plays to QB's every once in a while.  And obviously if I think LAR is winning, it puts Russ in heavier pass scripts, which creates more chances to run.   It all falls apart if SEA can grind away and keep it close, but I don't see it that way.

[SmittyBacall]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

As a Seahawks fan, I'm with @Broncofan here. Seattle is a paper tiger this season and walked out of Santa Clara with a W despite looking pretty horrid through the majority of that game. SF just about doubled our yardage output, but a boneheaded fumble by Trenton Cannon on a kickoff + Robbie Gould being hurt pregame completely shifted the direction of that matchup. 

I fully expect the Rams, coming off of a rather embarrassing home loss to Arizona, to take it to us. I expect McVay to come out firing with his new QB in their first primetime game together. We also consistently struggle against this Rams defense. They just have our number. Our secondary is going through a lot of trial and error right now and the offense is sorely missing Eskridge's speed threat. 

27-13 Rams. 

I would also like to tack onto this, I think this is a good spot to bet Russell Wilson over 0.5 interceptions. He hasn’t thrown one through 4 games this year, has game script going against him versus a dynamic defense, and he threw 3 picks in 3 games to LAR last season (including playoffs). I think he’s due.

[NYRaider]

Tempted to bet on the Bears ML. 

[NYRaider]

Jets/Falcons is an interesting one with the game being in London. 

[Broncofan]

On 10/5/2021 at 11:28 PM, Broncofan said:

For TNF, I have a few early leans:

ATS - LAR -2.5 - LAR coming off a loss are ATS kings.   SEA used to have the "never lose at home in prime time" tag, but that mojo has worn off the last year or so.     This is a brutal mismatch, I'll take this before we get to the 3 pt threshold

PLAYER PROPS

1-2.  Tyler Higbee O3.5 catches / O38.5 yards - SEA continues to have issues defending the TE.   This is a prime spot for Higbee.   

3. Wilson O20.5 rushing yards - something's up with Chris Carson, and Lockett is hurting.   With Everett on IR, this means more Wilson scrambling magic - heavy pass rush teams also give up more run yards to QB's who get outside, so I'm going on the over here.  

No TD props out yet, but I'm also not seeing any high leverage targets from either team - sadly, ppl's roles are well-known.   Probably sitting out the TD prop on TNF.

With latest injury reports, 2 3 more props to add:

4.  Darrell Henderson O63.5 rushing yards - again, I believe LAR wins this.  So I have a healthy 15-18 carries for Henderson, and that translates to 80+ yards.   This is a 2U play.

5.  Wilson rush/receiving TD +333 / +4000 2+ (IF CARSON DECLARED INACTIVE) - I'll wait until we get the Carson decision - if he doesn't play, then Russ becomes the top rushing threat inside the RZ.  That's too good for those payouts.  0.8U / 0.4U.

EDIT:  6. Freddie Swain O20.5 yards receiving - Everett is out, and Eskridge is out.   That's just too low given the role Swain gets. 

That's 8.3U on the line - so hopefully it goes well, otherwise Week 5 is off to a rough start lol.  BOL!

Edited October 7, 2021 by Broncofan

[adamq]

https://www.bettingpros.com/nfl/odds/player-props/

 

Invaluable tool for betting props, they have versions for every sport. 

[LeotheLion]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

4.  Darrell Henderson O63.5 rushing yards - again, I believe LAR wins this.  So I have a healthy 15-18 carries for Henderson, and that translates to 80+ yards.   This is a 2U play.

My concern for this one is Hendo is already hurt and playing on a short week. If we are winning, I wonder if Michel is getting more of those carries. 18 rushes seems ambitious regardless of game script.