Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

31 minutes ago, LeotheLion said:

My concern for this one is Hendo is already hurt and playing on a short week. If we are winning, I wonder if Michel is getting more of those carries. 18 rushes seems ambitious regardless of game script. 

Fair - but that total is depressed enough that only 13-14 carries could get the job done.  
 

After losing the ‘Zona game I don’t think McVay will take the foot off the pedal.   Especially being an intradivisional game.   Interesting observation made btw - RB carries seem to be decreased on the front end of the Sunday - TNF short week (Mccaffrey injury nothwithstanding).   We’ll see if that trend continues this week or not.    

[adamq]

There's a promo for Stafford/Wilson to combine for 600 yds+ passing tonight at +200, yay or nay?

[SaveOurSonics]

Kinda wanna hammer Rams -0.5 1H sitting at -105. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, adamq said:

There's a promo for Stafford/Wilson to combine for 600 yds+ passing tonight at +200, yay or nay?

That's a sucker bet.  The individual lines combined are WAY higher than +200.   Wilson's OU is something like 270 and Stafford's is 300.   And that's for -110 each, so that's a +265 combo.   Easy pass.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Broncofan

[N4L]

I love the under 54 tonight 

Lockett is banged up. DK has not performed well this year. They don't have much else on offense, especially with Carson out. 

Rams should try and run the ball. Neither team plays with much pace 

[Broncofan]

16 minutes ago, N4L said:

I love the under 54 tonight 

Lockett is banged up. DK has not performed well this year. They don't have much else on offense, especially with Carson out. 

Rams should try and run the ball. Neither team plays with much pace 

Biggest reason to back the under is again Pete Carroll.   SEA with 27th pace of play, and 21st neutral script pace of play.  Short fields are only way I see U54 losing (which is always possible).

One late addition with Gerald Everett out - Freddie Swain O20.5 yards.    That's WAY too low with Eskridge, Everett and likely Carson out (or timesharing).

 

Henderson's OU is now 67.5 (so love getting 63.5) and Higbee's is 42.5 (so love getting 38.5).  BOL!

Edited October 7, 2021 by Broncofan

[AZ_Eaglesfan]

Like the under and Rams on the spread tonight. Thinking about taking both.

[SaveOurSonics]

8 minutes ago, N4L said:

I love the under 54 tonight 

Lockett is banged up. DK has not performed well this year. They don't have much else on offense, especially with Carson out. 

Rams should try and run the ball. Neither team plays with much pace 

I took a Rams +3.5 u60.5 teaser fwiw. 

I actually think Collins will represent an addition by subtraction (small sample size, but he’s been the better back) but with both Eskridge and Everett out, we will sorely lack the speed necessary to effectively run Waldron’s offense to its fullest potential and threaten the Rams both vertically and horizontally. I’m expecting us to come out slow (I ended up putting a U on Rams ML halftime) and then the offense opens up some in the 2nd half. 

I’ll go ahead and predict 31-20 Rams. 

 

[Broncofan]

58 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I took a Rams +3.5 u60.5 teaser fwiw. 

I actually think Collins will represent an addition by subtraction (small sample size, but he’s been the better back) but with both Eskridge and Everett out, we will sorely lack the speed necessary to effectively run Waldron’s offense to its fullest potential and threaten the Rams both vertically and horizontally. I’m expecting us to come out slow (I ended up putting a U on Rams ML halftime) and then the offense opens up some in the 2nd half. 

I’ll go ahead and predict 31-20 Rams. 

 

I think if there's a tease to make, it's your LAR +3.5 / U60.5

There's always the chance SEA wins - there can be 3 TO's going their way (the TNF with TAM / DAL), or Donald could leave the game early.    But in that case, Carroll's conservative game management leaves the likelihood it's a game decided by a winning FG - in which case, LAR is covered against disaster.   And U60.5 with Carroll's pace of play, it's far better IMO than taking O47.5, as a contrast.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

On 10/6/2021 at 3:37 PM, SmittyBacall said:

I would also like to tack onto this, I think this is a good spot to bet Russell Wilson over 0.5 interceptions. He hasn’t thrown one through 4 games this year, has game script going against him versus a dynamic defense, and he threw 3 picks in 3 games to LAR last season (including playoffs). I think he’s due.

When you're due, you're due.

[Broncofan]

Given how game going - LAR 2U +125 when they got KO.  

[Broncofan]

Higbee & Henderson both hurt.  Ugh injuries suck.  

[Broncofan]

God bless Pete Carroll’s game management.   Unless you’re a SEA fan or are playing Wilson / Lockett / etc.  

[Broncofan]

On 10/5/2021 at 11:28 PM, Broncofan said:

For TNF, I have a few early leans:

LAR -2.5 - LAR coming off a loss are ATS kings.   SEA used to have the "never lose at home in prime time" tag, but that mojo has worn off the last year or so.     This is a brutal mismatch, I'll take this before we get to the 3 pt threshold

Tyler Higbee O3.5 catches / O38.5 yards - SEA continues to have issues defending the TE.   This is a prime spot for Higbee.   

Russell Wilson O20.5 rushing yards - something's up with Chris Carson, and Lockett is hurting.   With Everett on IR, this means more Wilson scrambling magic - heavy pass rush teams also give up more run yards to QB's who get outside, so I'm going on the over here.  

No TD props out yet, but I'm also not seeing any high leverage targets from either team - sadly, ppl's roles are well-known.   Probably sitting out the TD prop on TNF.

 

On 10/6/2021 at 5:31 PM, Broncofan said:

With latest injury reports, 2 3 more props to add:

4.  Darrell Henderson O63.5 rushing yards - again, I believe LAR wins this.  So I have a healthy 15-18 carries for Henderson, and that translates to 80+ yards.   This is a 2U play.

5.  Wilson rush/receiving TD +333 / +4000 2+ (IF CARSON DECLARED INACTIVE) - I'll wait until we get the Carson decision - if he doesn't play, then Russ becomes the top rushing threat inside the RZ.  That's too good for those payouts.  0.8U / 0.4U.

EDIT:  6. Freddie Swain O20.5 yards receiving - Everett is out, and Eskridge is out.   That's just too low given the role Swain gets. 

That's 8.3U on the line - so hopefully it goes well, otherwise Week 5 is off to a rough start lol.  BOL!

 

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Given how game going - LAR 2U +125 when they got KO.  

OK so what could have been a blood bath in player props was salvaged by the Rams big 2H comeback, which I banked when SEA got ball with 1 min left up 7-3 - because of Carroll's game management, and because at that point LAR had has TOP for 19 mins.  It definitely showed out in the 2H, the SEA D ran out of gas.

So the tally above:

ATS / ML - 2-0, LAR -2.5 & LAR ML 2U +125 - 3.4U profit

Player props - 1-4 (Henderson O63.5 rush yards 2U win, Wilson O20.5 rush yards <had 12 when he got hurt & left game, dammit, the 4Q was when garbage time coming, oh well>, Higbee <who missed a quarter, but it was going to be iffy, he blocked a LOT tonight>, and Swain O20.5 <just a whiff> - losses), with 2U bet on Henderson and 1U with others - -2.1U loss

TD props - 0-1 (Wilson rush TD / 2+ @ 0.8U & 0.4U) - -1.2U loss

Net TNF - +0.1U profit (LOL)

 

2021 - Week 1 - Week 5 TNF:

ATS 14-8; 3-2 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +24.5U profit

Player props - 35-31, +4.3U

TD - 5-12, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +24.4U so far 

Net balance:  +53.2U profit for the year

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 TNF - +0.1U)

[NYRaider]

Probably going to place a parlay this weekend:

Bears (ML) at Raiders

Bills (ML) at Chiefs

Steelers (ML) vs Broncos

Jets (ML) vs Falcons

Browns (ML) at Chargers