Weekly Bets Thread

[N4L]

I love the over 51 in the cards jags game. I took Arizona -7 earlier in the week but I actually like the over more. Jags defense is bad, they have a couple nice players but overall their defense has some major issues. Cards defense has some holes imo and you can get to them through the air. Both teams are passing teams. I think we see TLs best game this week. Should be a high scoring game. 

Trevor Lawrence over 12 rushing yards (posted by me earlier in the thread) 

Mike Williams over catches. The total hasn't moved up yet but he's been getting a ton of targets. He plays the Michael Thomas role in that offense. Last year he was used on a lot of go routes where he would make contested catches. This year he is getting schemed open. Should fly over this

Over Stafford 26.5 competitions (see my previous post in the thread) 

Mark Andrews anytime touchdown. He is due to get into the endzone. Lions coverage is bad and the ravens will have no problems moving the ball through the air. Brown should have a big day and I have his over yards as well. I have the ravens -7

I will probably play the chargers +7 and the over in that game. KCs defense is bad. They have no edge rush and Chris Jones is not a DE. Teams are getting to the outside on his side. They are optioning him. He is really struggling on the edge. I think it's hilarious that they took their best DLman and put him in a position to fail.

SF-3 biggest bet of the day for me 

[Broncofan]

On 9/25/2021 at 8:42 AM, Broncofan said:

With the news that Jenkins is out, weakening the GB OL really adds another 5-10% ATS win probability, so I think I'll lean SF -3 as well.   Like you said, with A-Rod & Adams, and JG's streakiness, this could end up being the time that GB covers - but have to like the odds more now.   I usually side with games where there's either a massive trench edge on both sides of the ball, and I was leaning that way regardless, but now it feels more pronounced.

On that front, feeling much more comfortable with NYG -2.5 after watching the TNF game.   NYG's OL is still an issue, but their play was massively better in the 2H.   At this stage, ATL hasn't figured it out on either side of the ball trench-wise.    And Matt Ryan is seeing ghosts big-time.    With more returning talent to the G-men, I'll back NYG -2.5 before that line gets to -3.

Updated picks:

WEEK 3

ATS (1U unless specified) / ML (1U) / RACE bets (0.5U)

CAR -7 -125 @ HOU - WIN (and already counted in books)

ARI -7 (now -110) @JAX 

WFT +9 -105 (now +7 -110) @BUF

LAC +7 -115 (cashed out +6.5 without cost given the different payout, always take the 7)   @KC

MIN RACE to 20/25/30 (+130 /+175 /+310) vs. SEA 

PHI +4 -105   @ DAL - pulled with Brooks out / Mailata iffy       

Pending injury reports - CIN RACE to 15/20/25 @ PIT

NYG -2.5 vs. ATL -110

SF -3 vs. GB -115

 

Player / TD Props (1U for Player props unless specified) - Boyd/Engram yard props still pending

Ja'Marr Chase O63.5 receiving -105 - see above

Joe Mixon O3.5 catches +120 - see above

Sterling Shepard O5.5 catches +120 and O61.5 receiving -105 - NYG's top WR vs. the ATL secondary.   'Nuff said

Mike Williams O5.5 catches +120 - The X receiver in the Lombardi O.  Buy in.

Matt Stafford O26.5 completions -110 - credit to @N4L, tailing.

Daniel Jones O1.5 passing TD's -110 - the risk is that Barkley or Jones himself score by rushing TD's, but IMO this is 1 TD too low, I have a projection of 2.8 TD's, so 1.5 at those odds is too good to pass up.   Can also decide to take NYG TT O24.5 -115 too IMO.

TD props - Vegas has wised up to the TD props - Engram, Chase & Williams are all less than +150, and the 2-TD prop is deflated all the way down to +1000 to +1200 instead of the +1800 - 3300 range I had in week 1-2.    Scotty Miller & KJ Osborn are now +200 / +2000 instead of the +250 to 400 / +3500 to +5000 or more range.      Sadly have to pass on all 5 plays at those prices, no value.

2 plays I've found, for 0.8/0.4U for the first, and 0.4U/0.2U for the second:

Daniel Jones +275 / +2500 (for the rushing/receiving, and a direct hedge against the O1.5)

Donald Parham +800 / +12500 - LAC has designed RZ/TD plays for Parham of each of the first 2 weeks (incomplete week 1, scored TD but penalty called it back week 2).

The 3rd I'll consider is Darnell Mooney, I'd be all over him if he didn't have a Q tag, but he did practice Wed-Fri.

17.8U in pending the Mooney addition (which would make it 19U) on the line this Sunday...

 

Updated Record Post TNF Week 3:

ATS - 8-4, 1-1 RACE to 15/20/25/30, net +12.4U

Player props - 16-11, +4.0U

TD - 3-9, but with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis Week 1, makes this +25.2U so far

Net balance:  +41.6U profit so far

Added Saquon over 3.5 catches +120  with Booker inactive.     15 mins late LT it’s -115 lol.    With that I passed on the Mooney TD prop.  
 

If Crowder / Mims inactive and I’m having a good day by start of late slate I’ll consider a dart throw on TD with Braxton Berrios +450 / +7000 2+. 
 

BOL everyone! 

Edited September 26, 2021 by Broncofan

[11sanchez11]

Bets I have this week. Mostly single bets since I have went parlay heavy the 1st two weeks and it is amazing no matter how many picks are in the parlay, I always miss 1 lol. 

Christian Kirk O 43 rec yards, Trevor O 13 rush yards, Saints + 3, Bucs + 1.5, Golloday O 3.5 catches, BAL/DET under 50.5, Pats/Saints U 43, SEA/Minn U 55, 

Parlays I have this week:

C Kirk O 43, Titans ML, Sony Michel U 51 rush yards

Packers ML, Raiders ML, SEA -2.5

AZ, Saints, and Bucs to win. 

[NYRaider]

Did a huge teaser this week and Tucker's FG saved me. 

5 games left:

Broncos: -3

Rams: +8.5

Seahawks: +5.5

Packers: +11

Eagles: +11.5

Please, god.

[Broncofan]

On 9/25/2021 at 8:42 AM, Broncofan said:

With the news that Jenkins is out, weakening the GB OL really adds another 5-10% ATS win probability, so I think I'll lean SF -3 as well.   Like you said, with A-Rod & Adams, and JG's streakiness, this could end up being the time that GB covers - but have to like the odds more now.   I usually side with games where there's either a massive trench edge on both sides of the ball, and I was leaning that way regardless, but now it feels more pronounced.

On that front, feeling much more comfortable with NYG -2.5 after watching the TNF game.   NYG's OL is still an issue, but their play was massively better in the 2H.   At this stage, ATL hasn't figured it out on either side of the ball trench-wise.    And Matt Ryan is seeing ghosts big-time.    With more returning talent to the G-men, I'll back NYG -2.5 before that line gets to -3.

Updated picks:

WEEK 3

ATS (1U unless specified) / ML (1U) / RACE bets (0.5U)

CAR -7 -125 @ HOU - WIN (and already counted in books)

ARI -7 (now -110) @JAX - WIN (despite Kingsbury's idiocy)

WFT +9 -105 (now +7 -110) @BUF - Loss (bad read,  WFT D is just going to be an enigma for a while - they're in deep trouble)

LAC +7 -115 (cashed out +6.5 without cost given the different payout, always take the 7)   @KC - WIN

MIN RACE to 20/25/30 (+130 /+175 /+310) vs. SEA - WIN x3 !!!!

PHI +4 -105   @ DAL - pulled with Brooks out / Mailata iffy       

CIN RACE to 15/20/25 @ PIT (taken with TJ Watt / Diontae Johnson out) - WIN 2 of 3, so close to 25 lol

NYG -2.5 vs. ATL -110 - Loss (losing Sheperd & Slayton changed the game totally...sigh, way it goes)

SF -3 vs. GB -115

 

Player / TD Props (1U for Player props unless specified) - Boyd/Engram yard props still pending

Ja'Marr Chase O63.5 receiving -105 - see above - WIN

Joe Mixon O3.5 catches +120 - see above - Loss

Sterling Shepard O5.5 catches +120 and O61.5 receiving -105 - NYG's top WR vs. the ATL secondary.   'Nuff said - Loss x 2 (hate, hate, hate early game injuries.  Ripple effect with Jones and NYG-3, a 4-bet cascade.  Oh well, that's the game)

Mike Williams O5.5 catches +120 - The X receiver in the Lombardi O.  Buy in - WIN

Matt Stafford O26.5 completions -110 - credit to @N4L, tailing - WIN (barely lol)

Daniel Jones O1.5 passing TD's -110 - the risk is that Barkley or Jones himself score by rushing TD's, but IMO this is 1 TD too low, I have a projection of 2.8 TD's, so 1.5 at those odds is too good to pass up.   Can also decide to take NYG TT O24.5 -115 too IMO. - LOSS (compound effect of losing Shepard & Slayton with a gimpy Golladay - sigh)

NEW - Saquon Barkley over 3.5 catches +120 - with news Booker is inactive and only 1 other RB active today - WIN

TD props - Vegas has wised up to the TD props - Engram, Chase & Williams are all less than +150, and the 2-TD prop is deflated all the way down to +1000 to +1200 instead of the +1800 - 3300 range I had in week 1-2.    Scotty Miller & KJ Osborn are now +200 / +2000 instead of the +250 to 400 / +3500 to +5000 or more range.      Sadly have to pass on all 5 plays at those prices, no value.

2 plays I've found, for 0.8/0.4U for the first, and 0.4U/0.2U for the second:

Daniel Jones +275 / +2500 (for the rushing/receiving, and a direct hedge against the O1.5) - Loss (running in for 2-pt conversions doesn't count lol) 

Donald Parham +800 / +12500 - LAC has designed RZ/TD plays for Parham of each of the first 2 weeks (incomplete week 1, scored TD but penalty called it back week 2) - Loss

The 3rd I'll consider is Braxton Berrios +450 / +7000 2+ in the 4 PM slate if the day is going well   

18.8 U stake for this week - passed on the Mooney addition, waiting on Berrios TD

 

Updated Record Post TNF Week 3:

ATS - 8-4, 1-1 RACE to 15/20/25/30, net +12.4U

Player props - 16-11, +4.0U

TD - 3-9, but with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis Week 1, makes this +25.2U so far

Net balance:  +41.6U profit so far

So 3-2 on ATS/ML so far (WFT was a bad call, but LAC/CIN/ARI were sound calls - NYG was just that variance of losing their WR's, and NYG's O stalling as a result).  1-0 with RACE 2/3 (but + money so even better)

Player props were 3-4 - story being that Shepard's injury basically cascaded not just his 2 bets, but Jones O1.5 and NYG -3.   Oh well, that's the game.   

On to the late slate.....given how I'm reading RACE candidates, think I'll dive into PHI +4 and race to 15/20/25/30, but let's see how the late slate goes lol.

 

EDIT:  4-2 on ATS/ML with MIN ML, also 3-1 now with RACE (MIN getting 30 on the nose makes up for CIN staying at 24 for 1+ quarter lol).   SF-3 and PHI +4 / RACE to 20/25/30 pending.    The RACE winning 5/6 means it's going to be a very profitable week here.

Player props 4-4 (Stafford barely O26.5 lol), but getting the +money with Williams & Barkley keeps me slightly positive here  

TD props still 0-2, but that's the nature of high-return TD props.   Best thing I did was keep it small.

 

Edited September 26, 2021 by Broncofan

[N4L]

2 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

Bets I have this week. Mostly single bets since I have went parlay heavy the 1st two weeks and it is amazing no matter how many picks are in the parlay, I always miss 1 lol

@Broncofan and I are going to continue to preach this in the thread, but parlays should be equal to 10-15% of your overall risk for the weekend. If you play mainly parlays, you will lose more often than not.

I like a lot of your picks. I think Jalen will be matched up on godwin though

 

Lambo missed 2-3 kicks and I lost the over by 1 point. Had over Hollywood yards, he missed it by 7 yards and had drops that would have given him 150+ yards on the day. His drops caused my baltimore -7 to lose also. Damn. 

Over trevor lawrence rushing cashed, over mike williams catches cashed. 

[Rainmaker90]

23 hours ago, Rainmaker90 said:

So far I took a very chalky teaser that I’m not too proud of now 

 

Balt -2, KC -.5, Buff -1 

 

I have Chi +7 very large 

 

I’m very likely to take Sea and SF but we’ll see 

👎👎👎

[DontTazeMeBro]

On 9/25/2021 at 3:48 PM, DontTazeMeBro said:

Finally playing with live bullets

Dolphins +185

Parlay

Lions +8, Saints +125, Dolphins +4, Jets +11

Broke the first rule of gambling. No matter how many points you give them they’re still the Jets

[11sanchez11]

6 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

Bets I have this week. Mostly single bets since I have went parlay heavy the 1st two weeks and it is amazing no matter how many picks are in the parlay, I always miss 1 lol. 

Christian Kirk O 43 rec yards, Trevor O 13 rush yards, Saints + 3, Bucs + 1.5, Golloday O 3.5 catches, BAL/DET under 50.5, Pats/Saints U 43, SEA/Minn U 55, 

Parlays I have this week:

C Kirk O 43, Titans ML, Sony Michel U 51 rush yards

Packers ML, Raiders ML, SEA -2.5

AZ, Saints, and Bucs to win. 

See what I mean. Every parlay I miss exactly 1 leg of it. I think I hit 4 out of 5 in both weeks 1 & 2 (lost one on Pats fumble at the end of the gm & one on KC fumbling the bag v BAL, combined winnings were $1300 smh). I think I went 3/4 twice already too. 

Got 7 of 8 single bets tho. 

[11sanchez11]

3 hours ago, N4L said:

@Broncofan and I are going to continue to preach this in the thread, but parlays should be equal to 10-15% of your overall risk for the weekend. If you play mainly parlays, you will lose more often than not.

 

i think 2 out of 3 of my parlays this week were the get your money back if you lose type ones. gotta play those ones lol

[NYRaider]

On 9/24/2021 at 2:38 AM, NYRaider said:

Season picks so far

Week 1: 8-4 ML, 1-3 ATS (9-7 overall)

Week 2: 11-5 ATS 

Week 3 Picks (let's see how new I am to sports betting, lol):

Panthers (-7.5) at Houston

Cardinals (-7.5) at Jaguars 

Ravens (ML) at Lions

Bengals (+4.5) at Steelers

Bills (ML) vs WFT

Chargers (+7) at Chiefs

Falcons (+3) at Giants

Titans (-5.5) vs Colts

Saints (+3) at Patriots

Raiders (ML) vs Dolphins

Rams (+1.5) vs Buccaneers

Seahawks (-1.5) at Vikings

Packers (+3) at 49ers

Eagles (+4) at Cowboys 

Legit went 11/12 today, Seahawks only miss, I have to stop putting so many games on 1 ticket, lol.

[KhanYouDigIt]

 

idk what I would do if this happened to me. Mattison ran for 2 yards on four carries in the Vikes last drive.

[NYRaider]

Early lines that I like: 

• Indianapolis (+1.5) at Miami

• Tennessee (-7.5) at NY Jets

• Kansas City (-5.5) at Philadelphia

• Tampa Bay (-6) at New England 

ML plays: 

• Buffalo (ML) vs Houston

• LA Rams (ML) vs Arizona

• New Orleans (ML) vs NY Giants 

Games I'm iffy about: 

• Washington (+1) at Atlanta

• Jacksonville (+7.5) at Cincinnati 

• Minnesota (+1) vs Cleveland 

Edited September 27, 2021 by NYRaider

[NYRaider]

10 home favorites this week and they went 4-6 ATS, with the winning teams covering by an average of 12 points and the teams that lost failing to cover by an average of 10 points. While the 5 road favorites went 2-3 this week with the winning teams covering by an average of 6.5 points and the losing teams failing to cover by 10.5 points. 

[NYRaider]

Going forward I think Jacksonville is going to be a tricky team to bet against. Their defense only gave up 23 points to Denver and 24 points to Arizona (7 came off a pick 6) and Urban Meyer seems to be improving slightly.