Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

On 10/4/2022 at 11:00 AM, Broncofan said:

Week 5 opening lines I took when they opened yesterday:   

-SEA +5.5 @ NO (stable) - I won't take the SEA ML win, but I'm convinced enough on the O structure that 5.5 pts is just too high.   I lean to NO winning 24-21 type game, so 5.5 gives so many outs.  

-HOU +7 @ JAX - JAX is a legit team, but intra-division, and both teams being vulnerable to the run....contracts the game IMO.    Easier to take with a 7 pt gap.

 

-NYG +7.5 @ GB (now +8) - I know, I know, Danny Dimes is limited.   And no weapons on O.   Here's the thing, though - the NYG run game is legit, and the GB run D is their biggest weakness.    So I'm not calling for an upset, but I'm not calling for a big GB W.    Being outside of the 7 pt line is crazy IMO.

 

-DEN -3 vs. IND TNF (figured it will go to 3.5 quickly - and it did) - the IND injuries and their OL struggles dwarf DEN's, and short week/HFA mean so much.   Don't want anything above 3 given Hackett.

 

-DAL +6 @ LAR, DAL +240 ML & RACE to 20/25 (now DAL +4.5, +180) - I backed SF MNF, so pp shouldn't be surprised I'm backing DAL.   The trench matchups are just such a problem right now if they face anyone with a good pass rush and decent OL, or an O scheme that can get rid of ball quickly to neutralize Aaron Donald.   And the DAL OL sudden works with Tyler Smith at LT and at Jason Peters at LG.     Those who are more cautious - take the points.   But I felt the SF-LAR matchup was tilted heavily to SF on MNF; the only difference here is McCarthy could mismanage his way out of a DAL W pretty easily.  But otherwise, gotta go with my reads and analysis.  So DAL it is.

 

I took these 2 other lines this AM:

EDIT:  TNF, just can wait this one out - PULLED - PIT +14.5 (opened -13.5, quickly bet up) @ BUF - if it's under 14, no thanks.   But just so many ways you can cover.  And BUF's D is still very leaky with all the injuries.   Don't get me wrong, I think BUF O puts up 28-31 pts easy.   I just think with Pickett an. d the WR's, without a great pass rush (which losing their interior DL guys, makes it easier to double Von Miller), PIT can hang around and lose a 31-21 type game.    I don't feel good enough to include it as a core play, though.

 

-LAC -3 vs. CLE - the fact the Chargers may have found an OK LT really changes the calculus.   Another matchup I don't want to go past 3, though.   Def don't want it as a core play yet.   

 

 

LAC is now -2.5, so I'm comfortable enough to back that.   NYG is +8, and all indicators point to Danny Jones playing, I'm still OK with that as well.

I'm still on the DAL ML / RACE to 20/25, but adding 3 more plays I feel good enough about to back now:

DET ML +150 / RACE to 20-25-30 (+200 / +360 / +550) - I know the NE O can run on DET - but I have no faith the NE D can keep up with the DET OL.   I don't think Amon-Ra St. Brown plays to be clear, but I just think DET's the better team.  And no, I don't think Mac Jones is OK enough to play.      I'll take this now, and back the highest scoring O, vs. a D that is frankly getting older, and more vulnerable.    

SF -6 @ CAR -  In theory this is a scary line - but the SF D is such a bad matchup for the CAR O right now, and the SF run game and Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle can give the CAR D fits.    It's a MASSIVE break that this is also on at 4 PM ET - basically prevents the West Coast to east coast effect from kicking in.   SF gets right by 10+ IMO here in a TO-neutral game.

PHI -5 @ ARI - very similar theme, this smells like the Week 1 KC game all over again.   The PHI D can do exactly what is required to stifle the ARI O - just keep Kyler in the pocket, and contained.    On O, the PHI O just has so many mismatches, including the OL vs. DL.     Again, a 10+ pt win I see in a TO neutral game.

 

[NYRaider]

Did a small SGP for today's game, $10 with a $2,000 payout.

Denver Broncos (ML)

U42.5

Russell Wilson O231.5 passing yards

Melvin Gordon O11.5 receiving yards

Jerry Jeudy O60 receiving yards

Courtland Sutton O70 receiving yards

Alec Pierce O40 receiving yards

Mo Alie-Cox O20.5 receiving yards

Phillip Lindsay O38.5 rushing yards

[NYRaider]

Some of the games I like this week:

Broncos (ML, -184) vs Colts

Dolphins (-3.5) at Jets

Cowboys (+5.5) at Rams

Seahawks (+5.5) at Saints

Lions (ML, +144) at Patriots

 

Edited October 6, 2022 by NYRaider

[NYRaider]

Some of the early prop bet lines that I like:

Dalvin Cook (O77.5 rushing yards): The Bears are currently allowing 187 rushing yards per game, 32nd in the NFL. This seems like a smash spot in a game where the Vikings are favored by 7.5 and should be looking to burn clock in the second half. 

Alvin Kamara (O26.5 receiving yards): Seattle has been middle of the pack defending RBs in the passing game so far this season. With Andy Dalton likely under center and no Michael Thomas I expect that the Saints will lean heavily on Kamara with short passes/check downs. 

Devin Singletary (O17.5 receiving yards): The Steelers rank in the bottom 10 in terms of receiving yards allowed to RB so far this season. Singletary is currently ranked 1st amongst RB's in routes run and the Bills will be without Crowder while McKenzie and Davis have both been banged up. Over the last two weeks Singletary has separated himself as the Bills lead back and has 13 receptions (16 targets) for 125 yards over their last two games. 

 

[NYRaider]

10 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Did a small SGP for today's game, $10 with a $2,000 payout.

Denver Broncos (ML)

U42.5

Russell Wilson O231.5 passing yards

Melvin Gordon O11.5 receiving yards

Jerry Jeudy O60 receiving yards

Courtland Sutton O70 receiving yards

Alec Pierce O40 receiving yards

Mo Alie-Cox O20.5 receiving yards

Phillip Lindsay O38.5 rushing yards

Jeudy came up 7 yards short, Mo Alie-Cox barely had any targets, and the Broncos lost on the last play, smh. 

[NYRaider]

12 hours ago, Broncofan said:

SF -6 @ CAR -  In theory this is a scary line - but the SF D is such a bad matchup for the CAR O right now, and the SF run game and Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle can give the CAR D fits.    It's a MASSIVE break that this is also on at 4 PM ET - basically prevents the West Coast to east coast effect from kicking in.   SF gets right by 10+ IMO here in a TO-neutral game.

The Panthers are 1-26 when their opponent scores 17+ under Matt Rhule. 

[SmittyBacall]

On 10/4/2022 at 5:08 PM, Broncofan said:

OK the TD and RB props aren't out, but there are some major opps to jump on for the spread and receiving / pass props, namely:

ATS/ML
 

DEN -3 2U - the line is only likely going to move to DEN's side, once the confirmation that Jonathan Taylor and Shaq Leonard are out comes out tomorrow.     I would NOT want any more than 3 pts, given Nathaniel Hackett on our sidelines, though.

2U at risk

PLAYER PROPS

Mo Alie-Cox O18.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ rec yds +150, 50+ rec yds +820 (WOW) - the way you beat DEN's pass D is not with the WR's, but with the TE's and RB's.  Athletic TE's give us a TON of trouble.   Enter Mo Alie-Cox, fresh off a 6-85-2 TD day.  Now, I don't think he's scoring 2 TD's, but it would be criminal if the TE's didn't get 10+ targets (Kylen Granson will get some).     I literally had Alie-Cox for 6 targets, 4-5 catches at 45+ yards.    So you can understand why I'm taking all the props above.   I think the line should be more like O32.5.   Hammer time.

Russell Wilson O1.5 pass TD's +120 - even without Shaq Leonard, the strength of the IND D is their run D.   Their pass D is definitely their weak area.   They are top 10 in yards given up passing, but there's MASSIVE context - in 3 of the 4 games (HOU, JAX & TEN) - the opponents went up 14+ pts either at halftime or early in the 3Q - so they let off the gas bigtime.   IND also will likely miss S Julian Blackmon for this game, and slot CB Kenny Moore has really struggled this year.   It may be that the IND D scheme just isn't quite the same without premiere DC Matt Eberfleus gone.    Either way,  if you think DEN is scoring 20+ pts, the chances of 2 pass TD's are more like 60-70 percent - so getting +120 is a value too good to pass up.   That also leads me to 2 staples I've always had included when they're healthy:

Jerry Jeudy O50.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds +280, 5+ catches +160, 6+ catches +330 (0.5U) - Jeudy had 3/52-1 in the 1H.   Hackett decided to have 3 of the first 4 drives become run-based for 1YPC (or naked bootleg off play-action)....so yeah, the 75+ prop whiffed.   Assuming Hackett isn't brain-injured play-calling wise (not a given), both Jeudy and Sutton should soak up 8-10 targets minimum.   Give me the great plus odds here.

Courtand Sutton O63.5 rec yds, 6+ catches +170 - 75+ isn't juiced that highly, so rather just stick to this.    CB Gilmore tends to do better with big bodied types as well, so no sense taking the extra risk.

11U at risk (gulp)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Mo-Alie Cox +500 / +7000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - definitely worth taking here.   Of note Gransen & Jelani Woods are all about the same - so I'd rather go with their main TE target.   

Eric Saubert +500 1U - he's the starter now.    As such, the odds are lower, but still worth the value.   With no Shaq Leonard and no Justin Blackmon, have to target a TE here.

DEN DST +900 (FANDUEL) 0.5U - This would be a 1U play if Justin Simmons was back.  But DEN is definitely hunting the ball, and they've had 1 pick 6 already called back (the infamous JimmyG step-over the line).   They also have 

Montrell Washington +2000 0.5U (FANDUEL) - flier play, but Washington's an absolute threat in the return game, and he's also the burner until KJ Hamler is back in full game shape.   Hamler only played about 10+ snaps last week, so I believe Washington and Tyrie Cleveland will get the deep shot plays (while Kendall Hinton gets the majority of WR3 work). 

3U at risk

 

Definitely going to add more, but especially for those than can partake with B365, get them now ( @SmittyBacall I'm looking at you, but any Canadian, Ohio, NJ & I believe Penn users, it's the book to get). 

Praying for no injuries to Russ, Jeudy & Sutton & Mo Alie-Cox lol.   BOL!

Well, we got slaughtered.

I put a sizable wager on under 39.5 / Broncos ML +105 at the half to recoup some earnings because the way the game was going it was unfathomable for the Broncos to lose. Low and behold, never underestimate Hackett and Russ. Lesson learned. Never again.

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Well, we got slaughtered.

I put a sizable wager on under 39.5 / Broncos ML +105 at the half to recoup some earnings because the way the game was going it was unfathomable for the Broncos to lose. Low and behold, never underestimate Hackett and Russ. Lesson learned. Never again.

Yup, I'll own that one - not only was Hackett once again brain-injured in the 1Q by going with run on 1st down vs. the IND D - Wilson was just flat out bad.   And because of that combo, it killed most of the big plays, simply because of the cascade effect:

-Wilson missing Jeudy for the TD and the flag route was 30+ yards each.   There's the 75+ yard mark hit in regulation

-DEN gets up 10+ pts, then IND has to throw it more - that gets Alie-Cox in the game.   By keeping it tied up, or 3 down - IND could stay in ball control, shorten-the-clock mode. 

 

Wilson plays at his SEA/LV/HOU level, we win by 10+ going away.   Hackett's brain dead play-calling in the RZ, though, also terrible (but the 2 picks and missed 4th down read, still on Wilson).     We totally deserved to lose the game.    Even though IND was likely +10 talent-wise, they were limited by physical / skill problems, and 2 bad plays by Matt Ryan (who was under fire the whole game).    We made so many mistakes on both the gamecalling, game management, and yes, simple execution side.   Ugh.

Lesson learned - until Hackett's fired, and Wilson shows more consistency, I'll stick with Jeudy/Sutton props for main yardage.  Fool me once (LV - Hackett game affecting the O - SEA, the O props were fine, the 1H prep, game calling and end of game management was the problem, but didn't affect the player props backed), shame on you.     Fool me twice, shame on me (last night). 

 

That was a pass funnel opp with DEN winning by 10+ points with just average coaching and average QB play.   Sigh.   Still, that's gambling - and with single games, it's all about game script.   You get the gamescript right, it's all milk & honey.   Get the complete opposite gamescript, and you take it on the chin.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Broncofan

[adamq]

1st quarter I saw Hamler getting some run, so I took him for an anytime td live at +500 and 1st td scorer +2000. I just now saw that final play on YouTube and wanted to also react the way Hamler did. (Went to bed at halftime) Russ Wilson always finds ways to screw me over

 

Some TD scorers I like this week

 

George Kittle TD +180- even without Trent Williams on the field last week, George was running plenty of routes. Kyle will finally get him involved this week. I also expect SF to win by 10+ pretty easily (+126)

 

AJ Dillon +140-  Cue Boston's "It's More Than a Feeling"

 

Durham Smythe- +750  Zero targets last week but still played 63% of offensive snaps. This price is too tasty... Gesicki can't block and Mike McD will never forgive him... why don't they trade his $#^ ? Who knows, man

 

Hunter Renfrow +260- it'll be a shootout in KC and Hunter Renfrow will make his return just in time.. KC will obviously focus on Adams, so Carr will be leaning heavily on his former favorite target. No REC prop on DK yet but I'm probably taking that too

Edited October 8, 2022 by adamq

[Dash]

Over on the rushing yards for both Harris and Stevenson? With Zappe at QB and Detroit's run defense as bad as it is they should be able to hit it easily. 

[Broncofan]

I needed to take a long break after that TNF debacle, so just got caught up with player props.   First rule after a bad night - do NOT try and play catch up.    

So with that in mind, Sunday's card is deliberately lighter, but has some guys you may have seen before

ATS/ML

TNF

DEN -3 vs. SEA - L, -2U

UK

NYG +8 @ GB  - I know, I know, Danny Dimes is limited, but he's playing.   And they still have no weapons on O at WR.   Here's the thing, though - the NYG run game is legit, and the GB run D is their biggest weakness.    So I'm not calling for an upset, but I'm not calling for a big GB W.    Being outside of the 7 pt line is crazy IMO.  A big help is that Leonard Williams looks like he's going to play (beat reporters have him at 75 percent chance to play)

 

EARLY

SEA +5.5 @ NO (now +5) - I won't take the SEA ML win, but I'm convinced enough on the O structure that 5.5 pts is just too high.   I lean to NO winning 24-21 type game, so 5.5 gives so many outs.  

DET ML +150, RACE to 20/25/30 (+200/+350/+500) 0.5U - DET on the road is pretty scary, but frankly, have to trust my instincts here.  NE will have Bailey Zappe out this time, and DET will have film on him.   DET's D is a problem, but the NE O has not made D's pay with their lack of speed.  And that applies to the other side as well.  DET's OL is a major problem for D's as they're a legit top 5 unit.   As long as they are scoring at the rate they keep going at, I have to back them, and the RACE's as well, given the payout.

SF -6 @ CAR -  In theory this is a scary line - but the SF D is such a bad matchup for the CAR O right now, and the SF run game and Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle can give the CAR D fits.    It's a MASSIVE break that this is also on at 4 PM ET - basically prevents the West Coast to east coast effect from kicking in.   SF gets right by 10+ IMO here in a TO-neutral game.

 

LATE

PHI -5 @ ARI - very similar theme, this smells like the Week 1 KC game all over again.   The PHI D can do exactly what is required to stifle the ARI O - just keep Kyler in the pocket, and contained.    On O, the PHI O just has so many mismatches, including the OL vs. DL.     Again, a 10+ pt win I see in a TO neutral game.

-DAL +6 @ LAR, DAL +240 ML & RACE to 20/25 0.5U (+300 & +580, now DAL +5.5, +200) - I backed SF MNF, so pp shouldn't be surprised I'm backing DAL.   The trench matchups are just such a problem right now if they face anyone with a good pass rush and decent OL, or an O scheme that can get rid of ball quickly to neutralize Aaron Donald.   And the DAL OL sudden works with Tyler Smith at LT and at Jason Peters at LG.     Those who are more cautious - take the points.   But I felt the SF-LAR matchup was tilted heavily to SF on MNF; the only difference here is McCarthy could mismanage his way out of a DAL W pretty easily.  But otherwise, gotta go with my reads and analysis.  So DAL it is.

With the sites still offering a 0.4U free bet, I'll definitely keep going with a SEA +5.5 / DET ML / DAL ML / LAC ML / PHI -5.5 +6000 parley.   That's 10.5U at risk this week for Sun's slate.

0-1 ATS, -2U so far

 

PLAYER PROPS

TNF

Jerry Jeudy O50.5 / added props - break even (1-2), Courtland Sutton O63.5 yards / 6+ catches - break even (1-1), Mo-Alie Cox O19.5/25+/50+ (0-3) & Russ Wilson O1.5 TD's - loss of 4U so far

 

UK

Romeo Doubs O47.5 rec yds - Quickly becoming the go-to guy for A-Rod.  NYG clearly gives up pass yards to the WR's, so it's a pretty confident play. 

 

EARLY

Alvin Kamara O3.5 catches +110 2U, 5+ catches +220, 6+ catches +500 0.5U, 7+ +1100 0.5U - I was willing to go with a 4U play on Kamara in the UK game with Andy Dalton in and Michael Thomas out, I'm certainly not going to back off with SEA's D coming to town.   They are 27th in DVOA to RB's, and give up an average of 7 targets a game, and 40+ yards.    Because the milestones are in 25-yard increments, I'm willing to chase the catch props given the INSANE payouts.  The only obstacle I see today is Kamara's health.   SEA is NOT a D that's easy to run against, so pass funnel to him is crazy.  In 2 career games he's gone 19 catches and 200+ yds receiving.   I might even get frisky and go 0.5U 8+ for +1600 lol.   We'll see....

Derrick Henry O12.5 rec yds, 25+ yds +280  - WAS D is not easy to run against....so the screen game is how you keep Henry involved.  They did that with IND and with LV, I don't think the books realize this - he's gone 5-58 (with 6 targets) and 3-33 (with 5 targets) the last 2 weeks.  With no Treylon Burks, I love this play.

Curtis Samuel O44.5 rec yds 2U - against a TEN D that's a lot leakier, and no Jahan Dotson, and a banged up Logan Thomas - that can only mean more work for Samuel.   I'm a LOT more confident in backing him vs. the Titans pass D than last week's PHI pass D.

James Robinson O62.5 rush yards - holy overreaction to a mud bowl and negative game script.   Travis Etienne took over more work because PHI surged ahead, and it was a slogfest.   In a game where JAX figures to be ahead, Robinson's O/U should be in the 70's so I'm ok with a play here.  Going to use him in DFS as well.

Nico Collins O38.5 rec yds +110 - Brandin Cooks gets the name recognition, but Nico Collins is taking over a bigger target share.   HOU figures to be behind, so I'm happy to back Collins at that low #.

Damien Harris O59.5 rush yds - I agree with @Dash even with a DET W, the RB's should feast.   As there's very little difference between both guys, I'll go with the guy who is used more in the run game for security.

Devin Singletary O17.5 rec yds -  I'm with @NYRaider here, only reason it's not a 2U play is the emergence of James Cook.   The RB's will eat for sure in the pass game, though.

 

LATE
 

Dallas Goedert O45.5 rec yds 2U -  with clear skies and the ARI pass D, as long as they keep going under 50, I'll keep taking Goedert minus mud bowl games (and he still hit, BTW). 

I'll also put a Kamara 4+ catches / Doubs O47.5 / D-Henry O12.5 rec yds / C-Samuel O44.5 rec yds /  J-Robinson O62.5 rush yds / Goedert O45.5 rec yds for +6600.   That's 13.5U of player props on the line so far.

 

2-4, -4U so far


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

TNF

Mo-Alie Cox, Eric Saubert & DEN DST / Montrell Washington - 0-4, -3U

EARLY

Juwan Johnson +400 1U (FANDUEL) - Against SEA's D, the TE's see a fair amount of RZ work, so I've got to go here for sure.

Durham Smythe +700 1U - I'm with @adamq, the snap usage doesn't reflect the odds, let's go again (I missed on TNF, but I can't complain at all). 

Dan Arnold +1000 0.5U - I know Evan Engram is getting 70 percent of the snaps, but Arnold's starting to creep in, and JAX using a lot of 12 formation in the RZ, so I'm going to take a stab.

Velus Jones Jr. +1800 0.5U - Chicago says he's going to get snaps on O - he's literally about 70 years old (he's not lol), but he's going to get even a few snaps, at those odds, it's YOLO time.

MNF

Jody Fortson +900 / +12500 (0.9U/0.1U) - I do not get this at all - Fortson gets at least 6-8 snaps in the RZ, and as we've seen, he scores about half his games that he plays, including last weekend.   I don't question it, I'm simply going to play it again lol.

That's 4U of Longshot TD props so far.

0-4, -3U so far.

So the list is more contracted, but with DET/DAL ML & RACES, and Kamara / Henry / C-Samuel & Goedert as 2+ unit plays, well, I'm totally good with 28U on the line.   Hopefully can recover from that terrible TNF.  BOL!

Edited October 8, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

SEASON TALLY up to Week 5 TNF:
 

ATS / ML&RACE

12-13-1 ATS, 7-9 ML/RACE (Week 1 JAX, Week 2 TNF LAC pick-6, Week 3 DET late game management - all snakebitten, but in reality nowhere close to the 40+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). 

BALANCE -5.1U

 

PLAYER PROPS

37-36

+9.0U (14-11 in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts on several)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

7-24 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000).

+16.6U

 

TOTAL:   +20.5U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - -9.0U TNF)

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

Edited October 8, 2022 by Broncofan

[goldfishwars]

I’d take Seattle to win that game, so that +5.5 is crazy to me.

Love Damien Harris at over 58.5 for the Patriots. Pats have run the ball extremely well and that Lions defence is leaky as hell. 

[Broncofan]

On 10/7/2022 at 9:38 PM, Broncofan said:

I needed to take a long break after that TNF debacle, so just got caught up with player props.   First rule after a bad night - do NOT try and play catch up.    

So with that in mind, Sunday's card is deliberately lighter, but has some guys you may have seen before

ATS/ML

TNF

DEN -3 vs. SEA - L, -2U

UK

NYG +8 @ GB  - I know, I know, Danny Dimes is limited, but he's playing.   And they still have no weapons on O at WR.   Here's the thing, though - the NYG run game is legit, and the GB run D is their biggest weakness.    So I'm not calling for an upset, but I'm not calling for a big GB W.    Being outside of the 7 pt line is crazy IMO.  A big help is that Leonard Williams looks like he's going to play (beat reporters have him at 75 percent chance to play)

 

EARLY

SEA +5.5 @ NO (now +5) - I won't take the SEA ML win, but I'm convinced enough on the O structure that 5.5 pts is just too high.   I lean to NO winning 24-21 type game, so 5.5 gives so many outs.  

DET ML +150, RACE to 20/25/30 (+200/+350/+500) 0.5U - DET on the road is pretty scary, but frankly, have to trust my instincts here.  NE will have Bailey Zappe out this time, and DET will have film on him.   DET's D is a problem, but the NE O has not made D's pay with their lack of speed.  And that applies to the other side as well.  DET's OL is a major problem for D's as they're a legit top 5 unit.   As long as they are scoring at the rate they keep going at, I have to back them, and the RACE's as well, given the payout.

SF -6 @ CAR -  In theory this is a scary line - but the SF D is such a bad matchup for the CAR O right now, and the SF run game and Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle can give the CAR D fits.    It's a MASSIVE break that this is also on at 4 PM ET - basically prevents the West Coast to east coast effect from kicking in.   SF gets right by 10+ IMO here in a TO-neutral game.

 

LATE

PHI -5 @ ARI - very similar theme, this smells like the Week 1 KC game all over again.   The PHI D can do exactly what is required to stifle the ARI O - just keep Kyler in the pocket, and contained.    On O, the PHI O just has so many mismatches, including the OL vs. DL.     Again, a 10+ pt win I see in a TO neutral game.

-DAL +6 @ LAR, DAL +240 ML & RACE to 20/25 0.5U (+300 & +580, now DAL +5.5, +200) - I backed SF MNF, so pp shouldn't be surprised I'm backing DAL.   The trench matchups are just such a problem right now if they face anyone with a good pass rush and decent OL, or an O scheme that can get rid of ball quickly to neutralize Aaron Donald.   And the DAL OL sudden works with Tyler Smith at LT and at Jason Peters at LG.     Those who are more cautious - take the points.   But I felt the SF-LAR matchup was tilted heavily to SF on MNF; the only difference here is McCarthy could mismanage his way out of a DAL W pretty easily.  But otherwise, gotta go with my reads and analysis.  So DAL it is.

With the sites still offering a 0.4U free bet, I'll definitely keep going with a SEA +5.5 / DET ML / DAL ML / LAC ML / PHI -5.5 +6000 parley.   That's 10.5U at risk this week for Sun's slate.

0-1 ATS, -2U so far

 

PLAYER PROPS

TNF

Jerry Jeudy O50.5 / added props - break even (1-2), Courtland Sutton O63.5 yards / 6+ catches - break even (1-1), Mo-Alie Cox O19.5/25+/50+ (0-3) & Russ Wilson O1.5 TD's - loss of 4U so far

 

UK

Romeo Doubs O47.5 rec yds - Quickly becoming the go-to guy for A-Rod.  NYG clearly gives up pass yards to the WR's, so it's a pretty confident play. 

 

EARLY

Alvin Kamara O3.5 catches +110 2U, 5+ catches +220, 6+ catches +500 0.5U, 7+ +1100 0.5U - I was willing to go with a 4U play on Kamara in the UK game with Andy Dalton in and Michael Thomas out, I'm certainly not going to back off with SEA's D coming to town.   They are 27th in DVOA to RB's, and give up an average of 7 targets a game, and 40+ yards.    Because the milestones are in 25-yard increments, I'm willing to chase the catch props given the INSANE payouts.  The only obstacle I see today is Kamara's health.   SEA is NOT a D that's easy to run against, so pass funnel to him is crazy.  In 2 career games he's gone 19 catches and 200+ yds receiving.   I might even get frisky and go 0.5U 8+ for +1600 lol.   We'll see....

Derrick Henry O12.5 rec yds, 25+ yds +280  - WAS D is not easy to run against....so the screen game is how you keep Henry involved.  They did that with IND and with LV, I don't think the books realize this - he's gone 5-58 (with 6 targets) and 3-33 (with 5 targets) the last 2 weeks.  With no Treylon Burks, I love this play.

Curtis Samuel O44.5 rec yds 2U - against a TEN D that's a lot leakier, and no Jahan Dotson, and a banged up Logan Thomas - that can only mean more work for Samuel.   I'm a LOT more confident in backing him vs. the Titans pass D than last week's PHI pass D.

James Robinson O62.5 rush yards - holy overreaction to a mud bowl and negative game script.   Travis Etienne took over more work because PHI surged ahead, and it was a slogfest.   In a game where JAX figures to be ahead, Robinson's O/U should be in the 70's so I'm ok with a play here.  Going to use him in DFS as well.

Nico Collins O38.5 rec yds +110 - Brandin Cooks gets the name recognition, but Nico Collins is taking over a bigger target share.   HOU figures to be behind, so I'm happy to back Collins at that low #.

Damien Harris O59.5 rush yds - I agree with @Dash even with a DET W, the RB's should feast.   As there's very little difference between both guys, I'll go with the guy who is used more in the run game for security.

Devin Singletary O17.5 rec yds -  I'm with @NYRaider here, only reason it's not a 2U play is the emergence of James Cook.   The RB's will eat for sure in the pass game, though.

 

LATE
 

Dallas Goedert O45.5 rec yds 2U -  with clear skies and the ARI pass D, as long as they keep going under 50, I'll keep taking Goedert minus mud bowl games (and he still hit, BTW). 

I'll also put a Kamara 4+ catches / Doubs O47.5 / D-Henry O12.5 rec yds / C-Samuel O44.5 rec yds /  J-Robinson O62.5 rush yds / Goedert O45.5 rec yds for +6600.   That's 13.5U of player props on the line so far.

 

2-4, -4U so far


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

TNF

Mo-Alie Cox, Eric Saubert & DEN DST / Montrell Washington - 0-4, -3U

EARLY

Juwan Johnson +400 1U (FANDUEL) - Against SEA's D, the TE's see a fair amount of RZ work, so I've got to go here for sure.

Durham Smythe +700 1U - I'm with @adamq, the snap usage doesn't reflect the odds, let's go again (I missed on TNF, but I can't complain at all). 

Dan Arnold +1000 0.5U - I know Evan Engram is getting 70 percent of the snaps, but Arnold's starting to creep in, and JAX using a lot of 12 formation in the RZ, so I'm going to take a stab.

Velus Jones Jr. +1800 0.5U - Chicago says he's going to get snaps on O - he's literally about 70 years old (he's not lol), but he's going to get even a few snaps, at those odds, it's YOLO time.

MNF

Jody Fortson +900 / +12500 (0.9U/0.1U) - I do not get this at all - Fortson gets at least 6-8 snaps in the RZ, and as we've seen, he scores about half his games that he plays, including last weekend.   I don't question it, I'm simply going to play it again lol.

That's 4U of Longshot TD props so far.

0-4, -3U so far.

So the list is more contracted, but with DET/DAL ML & RACES, and Kamara / Henry / C-Samuel & Goedert as 2+ unit plays, well, I'm totally good with 28U on the line.   Hopefully can recover from that terrible TNF.  BOL!

1 WR & 2 last minute TE TD additions - OJ Howard +500 0.5U with news Brevin Jordan is out, and if I'm taking Juwan Johnson vs. SEA, will also sprinkle Adam Trautman +800 0.5U, who still gets about 35 percent of the snaps/targets, and 12 formation certainly isn't out of the question in the RZ. 
 

For UK game - Richie James +480. is the number #1 target overall & Darius Slayton +600 is the biggest threat so that’s  too much to pass on.  BOL!

Edited October 9, 2022 by Broncofan

[adamq]

THANK YOU @Broncofan

 

You alerted me to the Velus Jones odds so I followed, and then found this article and TRIPLED down at +2800 right before gametime. Also have a parlay of Jones/Ekeler/Godwin, so go Bucs!

 

 

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/velus-jones-just-called-his-shot-for-the-vikings-game/

 

 

(Also, Smythe!!)

Edited October 9, 2022 by adamq