Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

OK so I'm going to add 3 player props & 1 TD prop, and hoping we'll get 3 more (Brandin Cooks rec yds, Rashid Shaheed rec yds & Sam Howell rush yds), but I'm more & more skeptical with at least 1 of them (Howell rush props), since the other lines are out. 

I've put the full Sunday card below, with new additions in red:

 

WEEK 18 UPDATED SUNDAY CARD
 

ATS/ML

I took no plays but with the weekly free 0.2U parley, I did go with a YOLO 9-leg TEN +6/ PIT ML / NO ML / NYJ +3 / IND ML / DEN ML / LAR +6 / DET +4.5 +10000 parley...lol.    Only 8 more to go (and no way I'd bet real $ on it but it's free so...)

WEEK 18 PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Brandin Cooks o45.5 rec yds DK 2U.  70+ rec yds on FD +240 - IND slot CB Kenny Moore out, you know the drill with how slot WR's thrive.   
 

Rashid Shaheed O56.5 rec yds 2U FD (NEW) - well, damn, the books FINALLY caught on, and moved Shaheed up in a big way.  Still, against the CAR secondary, I have to take this for 2U - but it removes the equity for alt lines.

LATE

Latavius Murray O48.5 rush yds FD 2U, 70+ rush yds +180, 100+ rush yds +630 0.5U (NEW) - with news Anthony Brown is more likely to start, I think LAC will have clinched the #5 seed, and will be resting their starters (Nick Bosa will play 20+ snaps to get more rust off, IMO that's probably it).  This affects not only the O on their side, but their leaky run D.    This is a smash spot for RB's, and I expect DEN to win in a TO-neutral game.    With that in mind, I have to take this prop.   The risk is either injury or a Russell Wilson - LAR meltdown, otherwise this has been one of my most wanted props since the week started.

Isaiah McKenzie O30.5 rec yds 2U DK - the Pats will aim to limit Stefon Diggs, and they have trouble with speed/shifty guys - so that's McKenzie.    

Tyler Higbee O30.5 rec yds 2U FD, no alt lines out yet (but will take 1U & 0.5U alt lines if they become free) - at that number, I imagine it will be close to Conklin's, numbers, and I'll definitely take the 40/60 likely at +220 & +550 or better.  75+ isn't crazy to consider, although at 0.5U statkes.

Tyler Conklin o27.5 2U / 50+ Rec yds +300/ 70+ Rec yds +750 0.5U FD - Flacco averaged 8 targets per game to Conklin, MIA bottom 10 TE D.  

Jahan Dotson O35.5 rec yds 2U FD & O3.5 recs +120 FD - no alt lines with Howell first game but Wentz only reason he didn’t get past 50 last 4 weeks in a row.

Still hoping for Sam Howell rush yds, but less optimistic we'll see it.  Would absolutely LOVE to see Higbee alt lines on FD (DK's were horrible - +135 for 50+???? WTF).

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

EARLY

Juwan Johnson +450 / +3700 0.8U/0.2U FD (NEW) -  you know the drill here, ride this one last time for the season.

Dante Pettis +700 (now +600) FD  - he's their main RZ target with all the other WR's out, so this is just too good to pass up.  Sadly no 2-TD prop with +6000 lines on FD/DK/Score, so only 1-TD this week. 

LATE

Tyler Conklin +500 FD - see writeup in player props above.

-Isaiah McKenzie +400 / +3500 1.2U / 0.3U DK (NEW) - the line's since moved down to +380, but I like the matchup, and I have to take 2+ TD's.   I realize McKenzie was my 1st TD hit in Week 1, so there's some symmetry here too lol.  

Peyton Hendershot +2000 & Jake Ferguson +1200 FD 0.5U each - this is more about the WAS D being pass funnel, and while they're good against the TE, we're usually taking 12 or even 13 formation where the backups score.  Worth a dip in the pool. 

Donald Parham +800 FD  - with starters sitting, think the # drives goes down, but the snap / target share opps go up, so worth it.

-Andrew Beck +1700 FD 0.5U (NEW) Albert O is now the starting TE, but he's a terrible blocker.   Beck is the H-back, but he's also inline, and the #2 & #3 inline TE's missed practice all week except Friday (limited only), so Beck's in line for more work.

SNF

Shane Zylstra +1000 and Brock Wright +900 0.5U each FD - same deal with GB’s TE D.

 

I will also be watching to see if Juwan Johnson odds creep up - I feel almost obliged to go 0.8U/0.2U if we see +400/+3500 range today lol.  

That's enough for now, if the other 3 player props come up, I'll add them in as well.    Let's finish the reg season strong, BOL!

 

So far that's only 19U in player props for 7 players, with 2 more targeted players (Howell rush & Cooks rec yds, plus alt lines on Higbee at +200/+400 or better on 50/70 FD), and 8U in TD props - but with so many Q marks for games, it's definitely smarter to play lower stakes (this is almost 70 percent of my stakes of late, but IMO that's reasonable given the variability present this week).  BOL!

Edited January 8, 2023 by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Whats the line next week if its

Packers/Lions/Seahawks at 49ers

Giants at Vikings

Cowboys at Buccaneers 

Steelers/Dolphins/Patriots at Bills

Ravens at Bengals

Chargers at Jaguars

Im very curious about the 4/5 lines, could be home dogs

[thebestever6]

Juwan Johnson up to +450

[Broncofan]

22 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Juwan Johnson up to +450

Well, gotta go there.   0.8U/0.2U for 2+, ride 1 last time, it's been a $$ making ride this year.

So basically, Shaheem & Cooks & McKenzie rec yds / Lat-Murray rush yds / Dotson receptions gets added, with Cooks / Lat Murray alt lines, and TD props for Juwan Johnson, Isaiah McKenzie & Andrew Beck get added.    Now it's a pretty full Sunday card LOL.

BOL everyone!

Edited January 8, 2023 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Live bet, Durham Smythe td +2100 .2u.... IF Miami can manage to get within the 10 I think Skyler will lean on his TE. Doubt they will be able to run it in today

 

Edit- big gain by Raheem the Dream as I was hitting send on this. Let's go!

 

Edit again- aaaaand a big loss. Not my weekend, boys

Edited January 8, 2023 by adamq

[BobbyPhil1781]

19 minutes ago, adamq said:

Live bet, Durham Smythe td +2100 .2u.... IF Miami can manage to get within the 10 I think Skyler will lean on his TE. Doubt they will be able to run it in today

 

Edit- big gain by Raheem the Dream as I was hitting send on this. Let's go!

 

Edit again- aaaaand a big loss. Not my weekend, boys

I needed that as well. Put a small amount on every team to score a TD today and that game is the only one left lol

[Broncofan]

Early slate goes down -5.1U,  Cooks hitting both main & alt lines helped, but Conklin/McKenzie & Shaheem (33 yds at halftime, 0 at 2H - damn you Andy Dalton), all lose, so -3.1U there, and then 0/2 on the 2 TD plays.

Going to add 1U for Jahan Dotson 70+ yards at +420....would have preferred to get Higbee alt lines, but alas, was not to be.

Let's get the afternoon slate going.....

[SmittyBacall]

Well, boys. I did it. A cool 117.5 units to end the season. 

[SmittyBacall]

@N4L Olave had a nice day. Need the Rams to contain Walker. We have a chance.

[Broncofan]

On 1/7/2023 at 11:19 PM, Broncofan said:

Decent night, Okonkwo hits his main & 1st alt line at +200, and of course hits the +700 TD.    Burks missing his main line sucked hard, given he got 8 targets, and on the key JAX pick, had beaten his CB by 3+ yards, but ball severely underthrown.   Still, that's the game.

All in all, a net +2.5U to start Week 18, hopefully more success tomorrow!  

 

22 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK so I'm going to add 3 player props & 1 TD prop, and hoping we'll get 3 more (Brandin Cooks rec yds, Rashid Shaheed rec yds & Sam Howell rush yds), but I'm more & more skeptical with at least 1 of them (Howell rush props), since the other lines are out. 

I've put the full Sunday card below, with new additions in red:

 

WEEK 18 UPDATED SUNDAY CARD
 

ATS/ML

I took no plays but with the weekly free 0.2U parley, I did go with a YOLO 9-leg TEN +6/ PIT ML / NO ML / NYJ +3 / IND ML / DEN ML / LAR +6 / DET +4.5 +10000 parley...lol.    Only 8 more to go (and no way I'd bet real $ on it but it's free so...)

WEEK 18 PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Brandin Cooks o45.5 rec yds DK 2U.  70+ rec yds on FD +240 - IND slot CB Kenny Moore out, you know the drill with how slot WR's thrive.   
 

Rashid Shaheed O56.5 rec yds 2U FD (NEW) - well, damn, the books FINALLY caught on, and moved Shaheed up in a big way.  Still, against the CAR secondary, I have to take this for 2U - but it removes the equity for alt lines.

LATE

Latavius Murray O48.5 rush yds FD 2U, 70+ rush yds +180, 100+ rush yds +630 0.5U (NEW) - with news Anthony Brown is more likely to start, I think LAC will have clinched the #5 seed, and will be resting their starters (Nick Bosa will play 20+ snaps to get more rust off, IMO that's probably it).  This affects not only the O on their side, but their leaky run D.    This is a smash spot for RB's, and I expect DEN to win in a TO-neutral game.    With that in mind, I have to take this prop.   The risk is either injury or a Russell Wilson - LAR meltdown, otherwise this has been one of my most wanted props since the week started.

Isaiah McKenzie O30.5 rec yds 2U DK - the Pats will aim to limit Stefon Diggs, and they have trouble with speed/shifty guys - so that's McKenzie.    

Tyler Higbee O30.5 rec yds 2U FD, no alt lines out yet (but will take 1U & 0.5U alt lines if they become free) - at that number, I imagine it will be close to Conklin's, numbers, and I'll definitely take the 40/60 likely at +220 & +550 or better.  75+ isn't crazy to consider, although at 0.5U statkes.

Tyler Conklin o27.5 2U / 50+ Rec yds +300/ 70+ Rec yds +750 0.5U FD - Flacco averaged 8 targets per game to Conklin, MIA bottom 10 TE D.  

Jahan Dotson O35.5 rec yds 2U FD & O3.5 recs +120 FD - no alt lines with Howell first game but Wentz only reason he didn’t get past 50 last 4 weeks in a row.

Still hoping for Sam Howell rush yds, but less optimistic we'll see it.  Would absolutely LOVE to see Higbee alt lines on FD (DK's were horrible - +135 for 50+???? WTF).

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

EARLY

Juwan Johnson +450 / +3700 0.8U/0.2U FD (NEW) -  you know the drill here, ride this one last time for the season.

Dante Pettis +700 (now +600) FD  - he's their main RZ target with all the other WR's out, so this is just too good to pass up.  Sadly no 2-TD prop with +6000 lines on FD/DK/Score, so only 1-TD this week. 

LATE

Tyler Conklin +500 FD - see writeup in player props above.

-Isaiah McKenzie +400 / +3500 1.2U / 0.3U DK (NEW) - the line's since moved down to +380, but I like the matchup, and I have to take 2+ TD's.   I realize McKenzie was my 1st TD hit in Week 1, so there's some symmetry here too lol.  

Peyton Hendershot +2000 & Jake Ferguson +1200 FD 0.5U each - this is more about the WAS D being pass funnel, and while they're good against the TE, we're usually taking 12 or even 13 formation where the backups score.  Worth a dip in the pool. 

Donald Parham +800 FD  - with starters sitting, think the # drives goes down, but the snap / target share opps go up, so worth it.

-Andrew Beck +1700 FD 0.5U (NEW) Albert O is now the starting TE, but he's a terrible blocker.   Beck is the H-back, but he's also inline, and the #2 & #3 inline TE's missed practice all week except Friday (limited only), so Beck's in line for more work.

SNF

Shane Zylstra +1000 and Brock Wright +900 0.5U each FD - same deal with GB’s TE D.

 

I will also be watching to see if Juwan Johnson odds creep up - I feel almost obliged to go 0.8U/0.2U if we see +400/+3500 range today lol.  

That's enough for now, if the other 3 player props come up, I'll add them in as well.    Let's finish the reg season strong, BOL!

 

So far that's only 19U in player props for 7 players, with 2 more targeted players (Howell rush & Cooks rec yds, plus alt lines on Higbee at +200/+400 or better on 50/70 FD), and 8U in TD props - but with so many Q marks for games, it's definitely smarter to play lower stakes (this is almost 70 percent of my stakes of late, but IMO that's reasonable given the variability present this week).  BOL!

 

16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Early slate goes down -5.1U,  Cooks hitting both main & alt lines helped, but Conklin/McKenzie & Shaheem (33 yds at halftime, 0 at 2H - damn you Andy Dalton), all lose, so -3.1U there, and then 0/2 on the 2 TD plays.

Going to add 1U for Jahan Dotson 70+ yards at +420....would have preferred to get Higbee alt lines, but alas, was not to be.

Let's get the afternoon slate going.....

Well, the 1 PM slate was rough, 1-3 in player props, and 0-2 for TD's (-2U), but at least I hit full alt line with Brandin Cooks, which keeps the damage at -5.1U for the early slate

The 4 PM slate didn't hit any TD's (-5U), but going 3-0 with the player props, and adding it that Dotson +420 for 70+ 1U, was just the trick - Lat-Murray goes every alt line for +7.0U, Tyler Higbee goes +2U (and he got hurt right after passing the alt line), and Dotson goes +4.2U (as the O3.5 catch prop only one that misses).    So that's a +8.2U 4 PM slate, and a +3.1U Sunday slate (and +5.6U Week 18 so far).

Frankly, given the way things were going after the early slate, I'll take it.   

Only have DET-GB left, and I'll add 1 more TD prop, and 1 ATS pick to the 2 TE plays in play - then call it a regular season.   VERY successful 2022 regular season, +200U I'll happily take. 

WEEK 18

ATS/ML - 1-0, +2U (DET +6 only bet)

PLAYER PROPS - 5-4, +11.1U (4-2 with high confidence plays - C-Okonkwo / B-Cooks / Lat-Murray / J-Dotson), +

LONGSHOT TD - 1-12, -7U (Okonkwo TD)

+6.1U Week 18 

______________________________

WEEK 18 FINAL 

ATS/ ML & RACE

39-29-2 ATS, 15-16 ML/RACE, BALANCE +37.2U. (+2U, 1-0 Week 18, Week 14 6-0 & 6-leg parley +5200 0.4U parley woohoo)

PLAYER PROPS

126-126  BALANCE  +58.1U (+11.1U Week 18 SNF  - Now 66-63 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 K-Allen / H-Henry & Week 15 TNF CMC & Kittle, and Sat Josh Allen / JK Dobbins & Sun M-Williams; Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence;  Week 17 - Ceedee Lamb & Richie James & Tyler Conklin; Week 18 - Chidogam Okonkwo TNF & Brandin Cooks / Latavius Murray / Jahan Dotson)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

38-158, BALANCE +148.5U (-7.0U Week 18 - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwo +500; Week 15 Rashid Shaheem +600 & Peyton Hendershot +1200 & Juwan Johnson +380 & +3500 2+ <woohoo again> & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence +600 & Mercedes Lewis +1800 & Dante Pettis +1000  & Week 17 Mike Gesicki +650 & Donald Parham +800 & Isaiah Likely +1100; Week 18 Chidogam Okonkwo +700)
 

TOTAL:  +243.8U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 - +23.5U; Week 15 - +15.3U; Week 16 - +14.8U; Week 17 - +23.9U, Week 18  - +6.1U )

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

Edited January 9, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

For tonight, I have 2 more additions to the Shane Zylstra/Brock Wright TD plays - Jared Goff TD +1400 0.5U FD, and DET +6 (HC Campbell will still have them playing hard).  BOL!

[adamq]

Tonyan 50+ yards +260 // 75+ yards +650 on Draftkings. Don't see alt lines for him anywhere else, Detroit is weak as can be against TEs. Tonyan just needs the targets, which admittedly he hasn't in quite awhile. 

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Well, boys. I did it. A cool 117.5 units to end the season. 

And a really nice AFC title AND a standings prop to finish as well.

I just hit Philly #1 seed at 2U for +1000 as well and 4U on +350 Division winner (but won't place that in my weekly props - but those 34U still count the same!).   

Jeudy yards, catches and TD's all hit (thank god, because Sutton whiffed on everything, so I break even lol).

Still have big SB tickets with LAC (hate that Mike-Williams got hurt badly in a meaningless game - what was Staley doing), BAL & BUF in the AFC, and PHI/SF/MIN/TAM (Bucs feels dead to me lol) in the NFC.  BOL!

[NYRaider]

Early lines for next weekends wild card games

AFC:

Bills (-9) vs Dolphins - O/U: 46

Bengals (-5.5) vs Ravens - O/U: 44

Chargers (-2.5) at Jaguars - O/U: 46.5

NFC: 

Cowboys (-3) at Buccaneers - O/U: TBD

Vikings (-3) vs Giants - O/U: TBD

 

 

[SmittyBacall]

@Broncofan Latavius Murray went off on the last drive in a huge way. Props to you, my friend.

You really got to give this thread a lesson/breakdown on your process - what analytics you use, etc - and what goes in to determing your plays. I myself would love to know.