Broncofan Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) Wow, the lines are already coming out...OK, here goes.... WEEK 19 WC WEEKEND PLAYSWC WEEKEND ATS/ML SAT SF -9.5 - I know, I know, 3rd time they play each other, it's so hard to beat a team 3x, let alone cover....again. Well, the SEA D is still super vulnerable to pass-catching TE's and RB's, and we've seen Geno Smith has a crazy hard time when the run game isn't effective...and it's the SF #2 run D (TEN #1 IIRC). Sorry, in a TO-neutral game, this is SF by 14+. SUN CIN -6.5 - it's no disrespect to the Ravens - the D is legit, and Harbaugh gets the most of his team / ST / etc. But I do not think Lamar Jackson plays - and in that case, it's CIN by 10+ going away in a TO neutral game. BUF -9 - I have much bigger concerns with MIA's OL & D underperforming than BAL in those areas, but ultimately, don't think Tua will play well, and frankly he shouldn't play. In a TO-neutral game, this is a 14+ pt BUF win at home. MON TAM ML +130 - this is about TB12 finally getting key OL guys back - Jensen & Wirfs. It makes a MASSIVE difference - and then the O can be functional. On the flip side, if you play zone D and rush 4......Dak is having a miserable time with only Lamb as the big WR threat. Having Vea/Hicks back makes such a big diff. Trust me, I don't think either team goes far given the weaknesses playoff teams can exploit, but I have to take the +ML here, with 3 faves lol. I'll take the free 0.2U parley and play all 6 games - I'll play NYG-MIN O48 / LAC ML to make it a +5200 play, but it's 4U of my own $ at stake. WC WEEKEND PLAYER PROPS SAT George Kittle O40.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +240, 80+ rec yds +480 0.5U- SEA's TE D still so vulnerable. Yes, they'll know this, and no, I don't think it matters. Kittle spends so much time blocking for the run game, SEA trying to figure out when he's actually going to get into the flat/seam, I still this as my #1 confidence play. Austin Ekeler O36.5 rec yds 2U DK, 60+ Rec yds +270 / 80+ Rec yds +580 0.5U - this is just too low. Especially since JAX is vulnerable to TE/RB, LAC's short game pass proxy will more likely get Ekeler his 6-8 targets and that should be 50-60 yds. Not sure I'll go 70-80 for 0.5U though. EDIT: M-Williams missing the game makes this a bet worth taking for both alt lines SUN (TUES - DK only for SUN/MON; No MIA or BAL props out yet) Josh Allen O49.5 rush yds 2U DK, 70+ rush yds +240 FD - IMO he's still not 100 percent with his elbow, but if there's one thing I also believe, it's that BUF will start using him more as a runner in games that count. So I have no problem taking the 2U line. I'll see what 70/75 is before biting there alt-line wise. Daniel Jones O237.5 pass yds 2U DK - MIN's D is such a pass funnel, this is just way too low. Even if Jones has a bad game, that likely then means they have to play catch-up. Pass props are not great for alt lines, so this is simpler to just stick with. Having said that, the next 2 are easy.... Isaiah Hodgins O43.5 rec yds 2U DK; 60+ Rec yds +210 & 80+ Rec yds +480 0.5U FD - Hodgins is now the guy Jones trusts the most on the boundary - and OMG, the boundary CB's for MIN are their Achilles. This just way too low. I'm def taking 60/80 props with this. Saquon Barkley O23.5 rec yds 2U DK, 40+ rec yds +240 FD, 60+ +520 0.5U FD - the RB pass D is also a problem, so then I have to take this prop too. I'm kinda tempted to take all 3 WR's with Slayton/James too, but with Jones already added, I'm leveraged enough with 8.5U on the NYG pass O lol. NEW - Joe Mixon O24.5 Rec yds 2U DK - his involvement as a pass catcher makes this worth the play, with Roquan Smith upgrading the BAL D I’m not taking alt lines. Sadly none of the other CIN props jumped out at me (Boyd kinda did, but not going there yet), nor did the BUF RB rush or WR pass props. I am definitely interested in MIA rec props, but need to see the #'s as well. MON Chris Godwin O65.5 rec yds 2U FD - Godwin's matchup vs. DAL's rookie slot CB Daron Bland is just too good to pass up. If TB12 gets his OL back, the pass game will thrive a lot better than vs. good pass rushes this year. Mike Evans O63.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending FD - this is risky, because if DAL simply double-teams Evans, he'll lose all 3.5U. But if they let him go 1 on 1 with Trevon Diggs, Diggs may get a pick, but Evans will get his yards, and 100+ is very real. And to be clear - letting Diggs go 1 on 1 has been DAL's MO, so I have to take this prop and the alt lines. With news that more OL are getting healthy, IMO this line is only going to go up, so I'm locking in the 2U main prop now, and hoping the alt lines don't get juiced by the the time they're released. So far, 25U committed before adding more - I'll decide if I just run the NYG WR board / MIA rec props or not later on. WC WEEKEND LONGSHOT TD PROPS SAT Kyle Jusczyk +1100 0.5U FD - Kyle loves to scheme Juice open, and along with TE, the SEA RB pass D is leaky. Worth 0.5U. Donald Parham +750 (now +700) / +9000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) FD - if I'm going to take Okonkwo vs. JAX, you know I'm going with Parham here. SUN NEW - Cole Beasley +700 / +9500 (0.8U / 0.2U) FD - activated off PS. We saw he got snaps and target in RZ vs. CIN so happy to take the shot at those odds. Durham Smythe +1100 0.5U FD / Alec Ingold +2500 0.5U DK - HC Mike McDaniel is so creative, I have to take the crazy shot on the FB/backup TE angle at those #'s. Lawrence Cager +1100 0.5U DK - now, let's be careful in over-reacting to last week where he got 97 percent of the snaps - NYG sat their starters. So Bellinger is the main guy. But the point is that Cager is the sneaky TE2 or injury fill-in...and they've targeted him in the RZ before, with a couple of TD's this season. At +1100 with MIN's D, that's worth 0.5U. Isaiah Likely +800 FD - um what? Is Vegas not paying attention? Likely is clearly the #2 target behind Mark Andrews right now. That's just insane. MON Jason Ferguson +1100 / Peyton Hendershot +2000 0.5U each FD - you know the drill, those #'s make them always worth a 0.5U stab. NEW - Julio Jones +550 (now +500) / +5000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - matchup-wise, there's no one who can cover Julio in the RZ. Only issue is how healthy he is, but this likely factors into the number. Worth a shot. So that's 7U in TD props, and I have all 6 games covered with someone to root for...so a 36U total stake is pretty good. BOL! Edited January 14, 2023 by Broncofan Beasley & MNF TD plays, Ekeler alt lines & Mixon Rec yds props and alt lines for NYG players added on Wed AM... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Glad you're with me on Juice as a longshot bet, he always gets at least a few opportunities each game and Kyle will be exploiting those LBs. I believe +1100 is the longest his odds have been all season, too 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) Ok MNF TD props are out on FD but no player props, (weird that DK has player props but no TD props): Jason Ferguson +1100 / Peyton Hendershot +2000 0.5U each FD - you know the drill, those #'s make them always worth a 0.5U stab. Julio Jones +550 (now +500) / +5000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - matchup-wise, there's no one on DAL who can cover Julio in the RZ. Only issue is how healthy he is, but this likely factors into the number. Worth a shot. One more player prop also came out - Joe Mixon O24.5 Rec yds 2U DK - his involvement as a pass catcher makes this worth the play, with Roquan Smith upgrading the BAL D I’m not taking alt lines. Alt lines are out for NYG-MIN so Barkley / Hodgins alt line props added - updated on OG post. Edited January 11, 2023 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Was going to parlay the Bengals (-7.5) and the Bills (-9.5) to cover this weekend but then the news of Tua broke and the Bills line moved to 13.5.... so I still did it anyway lol Who Deys line scares me more but they know they have to be on their game in the playoffs and it's at home so I'm not too concerned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Also put a small wager on a non-QB to throw a TD pass. This type of stuff seemingly starts happening around playoff time when people dive into their bag of tricks. Odds are +1500 so why not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: One more player prop also came out - Joe Mixon O24.5 Rec yds 2U DK - his involvement as a pass catcher makes this worth the play, with Roquan Smith upgrading the BAL D I’m not taking alt lines. He just put up 41 on them last week and in the second half of the season, hasn't had less than 25 except for one game. Seems like a good one for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: He just put up 41 on them last week and in the second half of the season, hasn't had less than 25 except for one game. Seems like a good one for me You have to be a little careful, because BAL rested a lot of guys on O - which seems counter-intuitive, but it means they gave CIN more snaps on O. And on D, knowing they had clinched, after getting behind large by halftime, I'm not convinced they went all-out in the 2H, but kinda played to get out of Dodge. I like the prop because it's so low in general for what Mixon's usage is. I also respect BAL's pass coverage vs. RB/TE a LOT more with Roquan in there. This is one where I'm definitely OK with main prop only. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 QB rushing prop overs are almost an autobet for me 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 18 hours ago, Broncofan said: Wow, the lines are already coming out...OK, here goes.... WEEK 19 WC WEEKEND PLAYSWC WEEKEND ATS/ML SAT SF -9.5 - I know, I know, 3rd time they play each other, it's so hard to beat a team 3x, let alone cover....again. Well, the SEA D is still super vulnerable to pass-catching TE's and RB's, and we've seen Geno Smith has a crazy hard time when the run game isn't effective...and it's the SF #2 run D (TEN #1 IIRC). Sorry, in a TO-neutral game, this is SF by 14+. SUN CIN -6.5 - it's no disrespect to the Ravens - the D is legit, and Harbaugh gets the most of his team / ST / etc. But I do not think Lamar Jackson plays - and in that case, it's CIN by 10+ going away in a TO neutral game. BUF -9 - I have much bigger concerns with MIA's OL & D underperforming than BAL in those areas, but ultimately, don't think Tua will play well, and frankly he shouldn't play. In a TO-neutral game, this is a 14+ pt BUF win at home. MON TAM ML +130 - this is about TB12 finally getting key OL guys back - Jensen & Wirfs. It makes a MASSIVE difference - and then the O can be functional. On the flip side, if you play zone D and rush 4......Dak is having a miserable time with only Lamb as the big WR threat. Having Vea/Hicks back makes such a big diff. Trust me, I don't think either team goes far given the weaknesses playoff teams can exploit, but I have to take the +ML here, with 3 faves lol. I'll take the free 0.2U parley and play all 6 games - I'll play NYG-MIN O48 / LAC ML to make it a +5200 play, but it's 4U of my own $ at stake. WC WEEKEND PLAYER PROPS SAT George Kittle O40.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +240, 80+ rec yds +480 - SEA's TE D still so vulnerable. Yes, they'll know this, and no, I don't think it matters. Kittle spends so much time blocking for the run game, SEA trying to figure out when he's actually going to get into the flat/seam, I still this as my #1 confidence play. Austin Ekeler O36.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending FD (50+ if +200 likely) - this is just too low. Especially since JAX is vulnerable to TE/RB, LAC's short game pass proxy will more likely get Ekeler his 6-8 targets and that should be 50-60 yds. Not sure I'll go 70-80 for 0.5U though. SUN (TUES - DK only for SUN/MON; No MIA or BAL props out yet) Josh Allen O49.5 rush yds 2U DK - IMO he's still not 100 percent with his elbow, but if there's one thing I also believe, it's that BUF will start using him more as a runner in games that count. So I have no problem taking the 2U line. I'll see what 70/75 is before biting there alt-line wise. Daniel Jones O237.5 pass yds 2U DK - MIN's D is such a pass funnel, this is just way too low. Even if Jones has a bad game, that likely then means they have to play catch-up. Pass props are not great for alt lines, so this is simpler to just stick with. Having said that, the next 2 are easy.... Isaiah Hodgins O43.5 rec yds 2U DK; 60+ Rec yds +210 & 80+ Rec yds +480 0.5U FD - Hodgins is now the guy Jones trusts the most on the boundary - and OMG, the boundary CB's for MIN are their Achilles. This just way too low. I'm def taking 60/80 props with this. Saquon Barkley O23.5 rec yds 2U DK, 40+ rec yds +240 FD - the RB pass D is also a problem, so then I have to take this prop too. I'm kinda tempted to take all 3 WR's with Slayton/James too, but with Jones already added, I'm leveraged enough with 8.5U on the NYG pass O lol. Joe Mixon O24.5 Rec yds 2U DK - his involvement as a pass catcher makes this worth the play, with Roquan Smith upgrading the BAL D I’m not taking alt lines. Sadly none of the other CIN props jumped out at me (Boyd kinda did, but not going there yet), nor did the BUF RB rush or WR pass props. I am definitely interested in MIA rec props, but need to see the #'s as well. MON Chris Godwin O68.5 rec yds 2U DK - Godwin's matchup vs. DAL's rookie slot CB Daron Bland is just too good to pass up. If TB12 gets his OL back, the pass game will thrive a lot better than vs. good pass rushes this year. Mike Evans O63.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending FD - this is risky, because if DAL simply double-teams Evans, he'll lose all 3.5U. But if they let him go 1 on 1 with Trevon Diggs, Diggs may get a pick, but Evans will get his yards, and 100+ is very real. And to be clear - letting Diggs go 1 on 1 has been DAL's MO, so I have to take this prop and the alt lines. With news that more OL are getting healthy, IMO this line is only going to go up, so I'm locking in the 2U main prop now, and hoping the alt lines don't get juiced by the the time they're released. So far, 20U committed before adding more - I'll decide if I just run the NYG WR board / MIA rec props or not later on. WC WEEKEND LONGSHOT TD PROPS SAT Kyle Jusczyk +1100 0.5U FD - Kyle loves to scheme Juice open, and along with TE, the SEA RB pass D is leaky. Worth 0.5U. Donald Parham +750 (now +700) / +9000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) FD - if I'm going to take Okonkwo vs. JAX, you know I'm going with Parham here. SUN Durham Smythe +1100 0.5U FD / Alec Ingold +2500 0.5U DK - HC Mike McDaniel is so creative, I have to take the crazy shot on the FB/backup TE angle at those #'s. Lawrence Cager +1100 0.5U DK - now, let's be careful in over-reacting to last week where he got 97 percent of the snaps - NYG sat their starters. So Bellinger is the main guy. But the point is that Cager is the sneaky TE2 or injury fill-in...and they've targeted him in the RZ before, with a couple of TD's this season. At +1100 with MIN's D, that's worth 0.5U. Isaiah Likely +800 FD - um what? Is Vegas not paying attention? Likely is clearly the #2 target behind Mark Andrews right now. That's just insane. MON Jason Ferguson +1100 / Peyton Hendershot +2000 0.5U each FD - you know the drill, those #'s make them always worth a 0.5U stab. Julio Jones +550 (now +500) / +5000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - matchup-wise, there's no one who can cover Julio in the RZ. Only issue is how healthy he is, but this likely factors into the number. Worth a shot. So that's 6U in TD props, and I have all 6 games covered with someone to root for...so a 30U total stake is pretty good. BOL! I got Cager at +1400 on Bet365. Now down to +500. 👀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) 47 minutes ago, Broncofan said: You have to be a little careful, because BAL rested a lot of guys on O - which seems counter-intuitive, but it means they gave CIN more snaps on O. And on D, knowing they had clinched, after getting behind large by halftime, I'm not convinced they went all-out in the 2H, but kinda played to get out of Dodge. I like the prop because it's so low in general for what Mixon's usage is. I also respect BAL's pass coverage vs. RB/TE a LOT more with Roquan in there. This is one where I'm definitely OK with main prop only. This makes sense and is a valid thing to consider. Tee might not be playing either which takes a little pressure off the secondary as well. Mixon sees the field quite often so I still like it but appreciate the caution you're suggesting. I dont' have much faith in Huntley as a starter, especially on the road, so I expect the Raven's offense to stall more times than it normally would. Edited January 11, 2023 by BobbyPhil1781 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: I got Cager at +1400 on Bet365. Now down to +500. 👀 I honestly think books track certain bettors. I don’t mean me per se since I can’t bet on B365 but the articles on books restricting sharp prop bettors clearly mentions this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) DK has a gimme tonight, Houston to win +100.. $10 limit for me, but my brother says his is $25 You can hedge the $25 limit with $2 on FD at +2200 (if you are a mega coward 😉) Edited January 11, 2023 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 40 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: Tee might not be playing either He’s playing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Dang Likely went up to +1000 and the two dolphins players went up a ton wish I had waited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 41 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: He’s playing. Great news. Just saw he hasn't been practicing so I'm glad to hear this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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