EAGLES3658 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 3 hours ago, Broncofan said: I honestly think books track certain bettors. I don’t mean me per se since I can’t bet on B365 but the articles on books restricting sharp prop bettors clearly mentions this. Likely TD prop is up to +950 on Fanduel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 18 minutes ago, EAGLES3658 said: Likely TD prop is up to +950 on Fanduel. That's with news not just that Lamar isn't playing, but Huntley isn't - the 2nd bit drops the BAL TD potential down significantly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EAGLES3658 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, Broncofan said: That's with news not just that Lamar isn't playing, but Huntley isn't - the 2nd bit drops the BAL TD potential down significantly. Ohhh, I knew Lamar was out but didn't realize Huntley was not on track to play either. Gross. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/8/2023 at 4:54 PM, SmittyBacall said: @N4L Olave had a nice day. Need the Rams to contain Walker. We have a chance. Albert Breer voted Olave for OROY. Haven't seen what others have said, but that's a good sign! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, adamq said: Albert Breer voted Olave for OROY. Haven't seen what others have said, but that's a good sign! I’m still seeing a lot of Kenny Walker and Garrett Wilson. We shall see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucksavage1 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 5 hours ago, Broncofan said: I honestly think books track certain bettors. I don’t mean me per se since I can’t bet on B365 but the articles on books restricting sharp prop bettors clearly mentions this. Yes, they do track accounts and label them sharp accounts or smart money. Ironically less than 10% of sportsbooks accounts are profitable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Ok 1 more TD play became available - Cole Beasley +700 / +9500 (0.8U / 0.2U) FD - activated off PS. We saw he got snaps and target in RZ vs. CIN so happy to take the shot at those odds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 On 1/11/2023 at 1:44 PM, Broncofan said: I honestly think books track certain bettors. I don’t mean me per se since I can’t bet on B365 but the articles on books restricting sharp prop bettors clearly mentions this. I know someone who bets on DK who specifically places $5 parlays to pay like 150k every weekend just because he thinks it will make their algorithms think he is not a sharp bettor, so that they continue to keep their limits high for him. Not sure if it actually works but he does do well (to hear him tell it lol) and they haven't restricted him. If they ever let you back into B365, you should do something like that lol and perhaps @SmittyBacall should consider doing it before they kick him out lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 There have been severe storms hitting CA, specifically Northern California over the past two weeks. A bad storm is coming in Saturday morning (supposedly). I am really hoping it doesnt, but if its 20mph winds with a half inch of rain? Then the under 42 seems like a great bet. So I am locking that in right now and if the weather is good, I will bet the over and void it and pay the juice. I dont see Seattle scoring a lot of points either way, so I am going to do a 7pt teaser with the niners -2.5 and the under 49. Seattle is the #30 ranked rush D. I LOVE elijah Mitchell over 36.5 rush yards. He should get a healthy dose of touches and is explosive. He can break a big run at any time, but he also grinds out tough yards up the middle, which is where seattle is really vulnerable. The niners should have a lead and may use him to ice the game. I also will take the over CMC 75 rush yards. He had 100 last time they played. His usage is so high and this is a pretty short number all things considered. Taking the over rushing yards for teams favored by double digits is a winning strategy long term. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, N4L said: There have been severe storms hitting CA, specifically Northern California over the past two weeks. A bad storm is coming in Saturday morning (supposedly). I am really hoping it doesnt, but if its 20mph winds with a half inch of rain? Then the under 42 seems like a great bet. So I am locking that in right now and if the weather is good, I will bet the over and void it and pay the juice. I dont see Seattle scoring a lot of points either way, so I am going to do a 7pt teaser with the niners -2.5 and the under 49. Seattle is the #30 ranked rush D. I LOVE elijah Mitchell over 36.5 rush yards. He should get a healthy dose of touches and is explosive. He can break a big run at any time, but he also grinds out tough yards up the middle, which is where seattle is really vulnerable. The niners should have a lead and may use him to ice the game. I also will take the over CMC 75 rush yards. He had 100 last time they played. His usage is so high and this is a pretty short number all things considered. Taking the over rushing yards for teams favored by double digits is a winning strategy long term. Sadly I think my Kittle props are in serious danger with that weather. It’s probably going to need a massive chunk play to get home. That’s the flip side to getting ahead of line movement. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) I think I might like CIN to beat BUF next week, and I think this KC team can be had, especially through the air which is where the bengals strength is on offense, so I think I will take cincy to win the AFC +390 I also think if CIN/BUF both win this week, then the winner of LAC/JAX will play KC. Tough to bet against Andy off the bye, but the chargers play KC very tough and I think they can win that game. Chargers are +1100 to win the AFC. Chargers might not even win this weekend, but if they do, then they have a puncher's chance to play in the AFCCG. Might be worth a shot with the idea I will hedge should they get to the AFCCG. The goal of this bet is to be in a position to hedge and lock in profit. Edited January 13, 2023 by N4L 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Bills and 49ers are covering are very popular bets. Possible one these doesn't hit because those two team parlays just seem "too easy". My guess would be the 49ers because of weather. Maybe it ends up 14-6 49ers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) The only gimmick prop they hooked me with was Any OL to catch a TD +1500... could see some trick plays, maybe even on ST. Something fun to root for Edited January 13, 2023 by adamq 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 2 hours ago, adamq said: The only gimmick prop they hooked me with was Any OL to catch a TD +1500... could see some trick plays, maybe even on ST. Something fun to root for LOL You're using my logic in the sense that trick plays will happen which is why I took any non-QB to throw a TD this weekend at +1500 as well. I'll send you $5 for a beer if a RB throws a TD to a tackle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucksavage1 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 13 hours ago, BayRaider said: Bills and 49ers are covering are very popular bets. Possible one these doesn't hit because those two team parlays just seem "too easy". My guess would be the 49ers because of weather. Maybe it ends up 14-6 49ers. Something tells me Seattle pulls the upset. Extremely hard to beat the same team 3 times , especially a healthy and one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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