N4L Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 5 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: Looking ahead to next week, I really like Bills/Bengals over 51. We got a taste of what the game would look like during the cancelled MNF game. I see both offenses moving the ball with ease. At least one team will hit 30 points and the opposing team will keep pace within one score. This feels like a 31-30 game. I love this as well, that first game looked like a shootout, the bills D has been vulnerable and their offense will put up points on mostly anyone. I played that, played the over of each team's team total, and teased the bengals up to +11 with the over as well. Anytime I can get double digits for a good team in the playoffs, I am going to take it (just like last year) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Brady 45+ pass attempts Godwin 8+ catches Godwin over 74.5 receiving yards White 4+ catches White 20+ receiving yards Fournette 5+ catches Fournette 35+receiving yards Schultz 5+ catches Schultz 45+ receiving yards Lamb 7+ catches Lamb over 79.5 receiving yards $10 SGP bet Payout $3k with DK SGP boost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Dash said: Brady 45+ pass attempts Godwin 8+ catches Godwin over 74.5 receiving yards White 4+ catches White 20+ receiving yards Fournette 5+ catches Fournette 35+receiving yards Schultz 5+ catches Schultz 45+ receiving yards Lamb 7+ catches Lamb over 79.5 receiving yards $10 SGP bet Payout $3k with DK SGP boost Realizing it's a SGP - my only advice is pick a side with the RB's. Having both hit means they're going to split work - that rarely happens. If you had put Julio or Gage in there, it kinda correlates better. It's a total dart throw, but the small chances get better if you can correlate everything together. For me, the free DK $10 offer allowed me to take TAM ML +120 / Julio TD +500 / Evans & Godwin 70 & 75 yds / Schultz 45+ yds for +10500 (added 30 percent boost too lol). Since it's a free bet offer, YOLO. BOL! Edited January 17, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) woo-hoo Julio Jones!!! The Schultz prop wish I took alternate ones, Evans over 63, and the Godwin prop well take it. Edited January 17, 2023 by thebestever6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) On 1/15/2023 at 11:46 PM, Broncofan said: Well, the TD props have been really kind this weekend..... ATS/ML (TAM ML pending) 2-1, -1U - my live bet for BUF -4.5 is why I'm down 2U, but getting CIN -6.5 early this week pays off. PLAYER PROPS (TAM-DAL pending) 4-4, +0.9U - it's crazy because Kittle went -3.5U (0 targets after 2nd catch 2 mins into 3Q), Ekeler went -3.5U (bad on me for thinking they'd use him in a must win playoff game with no Mike Williams), Josh Allen went -3.5U (OC did not follow the Daboll blueprint from prior years - take note), and Mixon got subbed out for pass pro with the OL issues tonight. But Parham O11.5 rec yds (+1U with 26+ barely missing...with 0 targets in 2H AARGH), Danny Jones O233.5 pass yds (+2U), and of course, the Barkley rec yds (+3.9U) & Isaiah Hodgins (+6.5U). I'll take breaking even after that horrid start. LONGSHOT TD PROPS 4-8, +18.6U - frankly, this was unlucky not to have hit Cager (who didn't adjust to a perfect back shoulder slant) and/or Hodgins 2nd TD (3x he got targeted in EZ after he scored). And Parham was also targeted but couldn't hang on (and was wide open on a 2nd missed TD later on). But 2 hits tonight, and 4 today (and for a 6-game week) are still great. So with TAM-DAL left I'm at +18.5U for the WC Weekend. Which is crazy considering I was facing 1-3 and near -15U before Beasley TD got things going. Hoping the TAM ML, TAM WR & Schultz player props, and the DAL backup TE & TB12/Julio TD props can keep it going to finish Week 19 strong. BOL! WEEK 19 MNF ATS/ ML & RACE 41-30-2 ATS, 15-16 ML/RACE, BALANCE +36.2U. (-1U, 2-1 Week 19 MNF, Week 14 6-0 & 6-leg parley +5200 0.4U parley woohoo) PLAYER PROPS 126-126 BALANCE +59.0U (+0.9U Week 19 MNF, 4-4 - Now 66-63 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel & Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 K-Allen / H-Henry & Week 15 TNF CMC & Kittle, and Sat Josh Allen / JK Dobbins & Sun M-Williams; Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence; Week 17 - Ceedee Lamb & Richie James & Tyler Conklin; Week 18 - Chidogam Okonkwo TNF & Brandin Cooks / Latavius Murray / Jahan Dotson) LONGSHOT TD PROPS 42-164, BALANCE +167.1U (+18.6U Week 19, 4-6 - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700; Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF; Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwo +500; Week 15 Rashid Shaheem +600 & Peyton Hendershot +1200 & Juwan Johnson +380 & +3500 2+ <woohoo again> & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence +600 & Mercedes Lewis +1800 & Dante Pettis +1000 & Week 17 Mike Gesicki +650 & Donald Parham +800 & Isaiah Likely +1100; Week 18 Chidogam Okonkwo +700) TOTAL: +262.3U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 - +23.5U; Week 15 - +15.3U; Week 16 - +14.8U; Week 17 - +23.9U, Week 18 - +6.1U; Week 19 - +18.5U ) 2020 - +226U, 18% ROI. 2021: +251U, 27% ROI 2022: 23 hours ago, Broncofan said: To recap my remaining plays for MNF: ATS/ML TAM ML +130 2U - adding a unit given I've got a little to play with. PLAYER PROPS Mike Evans O63.5 rec yds 2U DK - he's going to likely draw Trevon Diggs, who could pinch a big TO off TB12 - but I have to take the yards, since he gives up chunk plays as well. Chris Godwn O65.5 rec yds 2U FD/DK - there's no one on DAL's secondary who can cover Godwin consistently, so I like this as the other TAM play. NEW - Dalton Schultz O37.5 rec yds 2U FD - TAM's D has been more TE vulnerable this year, and this total is about 10-12 yards lower than the usual TE1 output, so I'm happy to take 2U here. LONGSHOT TD PROPS Julio Jones +500 / +6000 (0.8.U / 0.2U) FD - from before NEW Tom Brady +1500 FD 0.5U - much like we saw with Joe Burrow, if there's a DPI at the 1, or a guy just down inside the 1 - we know TB12 is not averse to a sneak. For +1500 worth a 0.5U play. Jake Ferguson +1000 (now +1100) 0.5U / Peyton Hendershot +2000 (now +1900) 0.5U FD - from before. This puts 10.5U in play, with a +18.5U Week 19 already in, guaranteed for profit, but hoping MNF can send us on the roll we've enjoyed for the last 2 games after a rough first 3 games. BOL! Well, I got the game outcome horribly wrong, but I got the gamescript about how both teams move the ball dead-on (Schultz went nuts, and Evans/Godwin & Julio were the TB guys). I also took the DK superboost for TB12 O1.5 TD's for +100 - won't lie, it looked very much in jeopardy with those 2 possessions inside the 10 getting no TB12 TD's, but I'll take the late 2U win. While I lose 2U on TAM ML, I get the TB12 TD prop to cancel that out, and get 4-0 with 6U more on the receiving props with Godwin/Evans/Schultz, and the Julio +500 TD gets a net +3.3U profit, so +9.3U today, and +27.8U for Week 19 - I'll take it! I can't really complain, but man Julio Jones literally had 3-4 end zone targets AFTER scoring his TD - THAT close from a +6000 hit. Still, at one point this weekend, I was down almost 15U with 0-for-big-player props on Kittle/Ekeler/J-Allen, and no TD's, and my live bet on BUF failing - so to get from -15U to +27.8U is a massive swing. It shows just how CRUCIAL it is to get the gamescript right - and the power of alt lines (Hodgins & Barkley by themselves negate the 4 L's with -12.5U). 5 TD's on Wild Card Weekend on 15 plays? Life is good this week. On to Week 20 Divisional Weekend - looking to keep the roll going! _________________________________ WEEK 19 FINAL ATS/ ML & RACE 41-31-2 ATS, 15-16 ML/RACE, BALANCE +34.2U. (-3U, 2-2 Week 19, Week 14 6-0 & 6-leg parley +5200 0.4U parley woohoo) PLAYER PROPS 130-126 BALANCE +67.0U (+8.9U Week 19, 8-4 - Now 70-63 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel & Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 K-Allen / H-Henry & Week 15 TNF CMC & Kittle, and Sat Josh Allen / JK Dobbins & Sun M-Williams; Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence; Week 17 - Ceedee Lamb & Richie James & Tyler Conklin; Week 18 - Chidogam Okonkwo TNF & Brandin Cooks / Latavius Murray / Jahan Dotson & Week 19 - D-Parham / I-Hodgins / S-Barkley / TB12 / C-Godwin / M-Evans / D-Schultz) LONGSHOT TD PROPS 42-164, BALANCE +170.4U (+21.9U Week 19, 5-9 - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700; Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF; Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwo +500; Week 15 Rashid Shaheem +600 & Peyton Hendershot +1200 & Juwan Johnson +380 & +3500 2+ <woohoo again> & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence +600 & Mercedes Lewis +1800 & Dante Pettis +1000 & Week 17 Mike Gesicki +650 & Donald Parham +800 & Isaiah Likely +1100; Week 18 Chidogam Okonkwo +700 & Week 19 C-Beasley +700 / I-Hodgins +400 / J-Burrow +650 / D-Robinson +650 / J-Jones +500) TOTAL: +271.6U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 - +23.5U; Week 15 - +15.3U; Week 16 - +14.8U; Week 17 - +23.9U, Week 18 - +6.1U; Week 19 - +27.8U; ) 2020 - +226U, 18% ROI. 2021: +251U, 27% ROI 2022: Edited January 17, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Early lines for next weeks games: AFC Jaguars at Chiefs (-8.5) - O/U: 52 Bengals at Bills (-5) - O/U: 50 NFC Giants at Eagles (-7.5) - O/U: 48 Cowboys at 49ers (-4) - O/U: 46 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Wild card recap: Favorites that covered: 2: (49ers -9, won by 19) / (Cowboys -2.5, won by 17) Favorites that won: 2: (Bills -14, won by 3) / (Bengals -8.5, won by 7) Underdogs that won: 2 (Giants +3, won by 7) / (Jaguars +2, won by 1) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 This was the only SGP I had. Wanted to super boost a Brady TD, which obviously didn't happen. Pollard was also short 2 yards This week, I'm taking Jags ML for .5U. I think they win @KC and will put my money where my mouth is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Looking ahead to this weekend. Props I'll be eyeing when they release: Travis Etienne over receiving yards ≈17 yards (estimate) + 25 yards - It's very odd to me why JAX doesn't use him more out of the backfield, as he's a very capable receiver. Has his this 3/5 games. KC 32nd in RB receptions against, and 29th in RB receiving yards against. Line should come in and around 17. Explosive enough to cover in one catch. High scoring game script + KC lead narrative helps. Miles Sanders over rushing yards ≈74 yards (estimate) + 100 yards - He's had a quietly productive year and really feasts on bad rushing defenses. Had 17 carries for 144 and 2 TDs in second NYG matchup a month ago. NYG is 32nd against the rush DVOA, and has allowed the 26th most RB rushing yards all year. Hurts coming off injury, PHI might rely a little bit more on running through RBs? Game script leaning in Sanders favor (though I think it will be a close game). Daniel Jones over rushing yards ≈ 40 yards (estimate) +50 yards +75 yards - Ran like a mad man last weak (albeit against a very bad Vikings defense). PHI is 28th in QB rushing yards allowed. If NYG pulls the upset Daniel Jones/Daboll will have to hold nothing back. For now... @Broncofan What do we think, sensei? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: Looking ahead to this weekend. Props I'll be eyeing when they release: Travis Etienne over receiving yards ≈17 yards (estimate) + 25 yards - It's very odd to me why JAX doesn't use him more out of the backfield, as he's a very capable receiver. Has his this 3/5 games. KC 32nd in RB receptions against, and 29th in RB receiving yards against. Line should come in and around 17. Explosive enough to cover in one catch. High scoring game script + KC lead narrative helps. Miles Sanders over rushing yards ≈74 yards (estimate) + 100 yards - He's had a quietly productive year and really feasts on bad rushing defenses. Had 17 carries for 144 and 2 TDs in second NYG matchup a month ago. NYG is 32nd against the rush DVOA, and has allowed the 26th most RB rushing yards all year. Hurts coming off injury, PHI might rely a little bit more on running through RBs? Game script leaning in Sanders favor (though I think it will be a close game). Daniel Jones over rushing yards ≈ 40 yards (estimate) +50 yards +75 yards - Ran like a mad man last weak (albeit against a very bad Vikings defense). PHI is 28th in QB rushing yards allowed. If NYG pulls the upset Daniel Jones/Daboll will have to hold nothing back. For now... @Broncofan What do we think, sensei? FWIW Travis Etienne is not a natural pass catcher. Which sucks because he’s an absolute home run threat in space. His hand position and mechanics of ball catching show this - Matt Waldman’s breakdown shows this well. This is a big reason they spell him on pass downs a lot. Having said that this is a smash spot. I’m with you but ppl just need to understand the risk. I’m totally there on Danny Jones rush props. It’s not just him - it’s Daboll philosophy. We saw him go to QB run a ton with Josh Allen and now with Jones. OC Ken Dorsey didn’t go nearly as much with Allen (and sadly I likely have to back off that prop as result). If it’s 40-ish 60+ worth a play. Miles Sanders I can be talked into with main prop only. Gmen are more vulnerable but the run D is better with more guys back. I’m more likely to take Dallas Goedert as the alt line smash spot if the number is below 40 as I expect it will. The other spot is whoever doesn’t get Adoree Jackson - that’s Devonta Smith. The #1 smash alt line spot so far I’ve got - Richie James. With PHI slot CB Maddox still out with bad turf toe, the slot is the glaring weakness. James is the only guy who didn’t hit last week but it’s because the boundary guys were running free (and a tipped crosser robbed James of a massive chunk play too). Perfect combo as I suspect his line will be 40-ish and his TD prop will be +400. Also love Lawrence Cager TD props if CGJ is out and it’s +800 or better. Edited January 17, 2023 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Also love Lawrence Cager TD props if CGJ is out and it’s +800 or better I put it in now it's at +1300 I don't see the odds getting better and I can always cash out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 23 minutes ago, Broncofan said: I’m more likely to take Dallas Goedert as the alt line smash spot if the number is below 40 as I expect it will. My god, you're right. Overlooked this. 23 minutes ago, Broncofan said: The other spot is whoever doesn’t get Adoree Jackson - that’s Devonta Smith. Has been on fire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 56 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: I put it in now it's at +1300 I don't see the odds getting better and I can always cash out. Yeah, if it goes up, it goes up, but I have to take that number now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucksavage1 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, bucksavage1 said: 30-1 was possibly worth it. +750 is a sucker bet for a 24 year old with mechanical flaws and very iffy tape his first 2 seasons. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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