bucksavage1 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Broncofan said: 30-1 was possibly worth it. +750 is a sucker bet for a 24 year old with mechanical flaws and very iffy tape his first 2 seasons. Possibly but someone is hammering those lines due to some information Travon Walker Odds had a similar jump last year around this time. He also had questionable tape from college. I believe there’s a team or two who is enamored with Levis and will trade up to secure him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Hendershot / Ferguson again at +1400. Dabble? @Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) 24 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: Hendershot / Ferguson again at +1400. Dabble? @Broncofan 0.5U each although I’m surprised they’re the same. Ferguson gets 50-60% more snaps. Waiting on Hendershot can’t be argued. Taking Ferguson now. Edited January 17, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) OK more props are out - as @SmittyBacall mentioned, BOTH Jason Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot are +1400 on DK - it's already dropped to +1100 lol. Both are worth 0.5U at that first number, and Ferguson still worth it at +1100 but Ferguson plays WAY more than Hendershot. I will wait a couple of days on Hendershot, I have a feeling his number will go down past +1400 again. Ferguson I already took at +1400 before, have a feeling it's not going back to +1400. NYG-PHI props are starting to come out - I'm genuinely surprised at the WR lines - AJ Brown O72.5 rec yds & Devonta Smith O64.5 rec yds. I was thinking Smith would be at least 6-7 yards lower. That def takes a lot of the alt line equity out. I'm hoping this keeps Dallas Goedert closer to 40-ish yards, still not out yet. Richie James, though, comes in at a reasonable O46.5 rec yds, so I'm going 2U there and taking 60+ +180 and 80+ at +420 0.5U on FD. Edited January 17, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) OK so props are out now for most games, so I can put together a decent list: WEEK 20 DIVISIONAL SERIES ATS/ML JAX O21 FD - NEW - it's a safer alternative IMO than taking JAX +9.5 (which I'm leaning to). If you think JAX is a good shot to cover +9.5, you have to see them scoring. 21 is IMO a lot safer to play than worrying about them keeping up with Mahomes on the road. NYG +7.5 - I still think PHI wins, but I absolutely believe this is a 1-score game, so I'm happy to get outside of 7-pts here. Nothing but respect for how fundamentally sound NYG is with Daboll. CIN-BUF O48.5 - wow, the line has dropped massively with the weather news - but the forecast is for less than an inch of snow. The thing is, the winds aren't forecasted to be strong - and that's the bigger X factor. Locking this in now as I don't think the forecast is going to worsen. SF - 3 - the line opened at SF -4, and it's dropped to -3 while the DAL $ comes in. As long as it's 3 or less, I do feel comfortable backing the 49ers, as I think the edges on the line, and the run O for SF vs. DAL's D, and the SF D vs. Dak / run game & Lamb, I can back the fave here pretty comfortably, staying within a FG. I think the JAX-KC line is going to widen more for KC, so I'm willing to wait for now. That's 4U at stake so far. PLAYER PROPS Trevor Lawrence O15.5 rush yds DK 2U - with a shootout, and an expected KC lead, I like the chances T-Law has to run it at least 5x either by design or by scrambles. So this is a prop I really like. Travis Etienne O17.5 rec yds DK 2U - @SmittyBacall mentioned this, and I'm down for the main play given KC's funnel D. It's going to have to be +200 at 25+ to take an alt line, though. NEW - Juju Smith Schuster O51.5 Rec yds 2U; 70+ Rec yds +210 & 90+ rec yds +440 0.5U FD - completely forgot about this. Slot role thrives vs. JAX D. Concussion early in game was only reason Juju didn’t torch JAX 1st game he already had 2/33 in less than 1Q. Only risk besides injury is Toney slot work but Hardman out makes that less likely. My #5 confidence play. Danny Jones O46.5 rush yds DK 2U - we saw Brian Daboll go with the designed QB run with so much attention on Saquon Barkley, and I expect things to be no different vs. PHI's run D. Plus his ability to scramble, I do like this prop. The number's high enough I'll stick to the main line here. Richie James O42.5 rec yds DK, 60+ rec yds +180 FD, 80+ rec yds +420 FD 0.5U, 100+ rec yd +880 DF 0.5U - OK, so I'm probably going overboard, but I absolutely believe the weak spot in the PHI pass D is their slot CB with Avante Maddox still unable to practice with severe turf toe. PHI gives up >50 percent of yards and 60+ percent of fantasy points to the slot WR (shows how great CB's Slay & Bradberry are on the boundary). And one thing Brian Daboll is excellent at, he exploits the best matchups. Much like Isaiah Hodgins ran through MIN, I think this is the NYG matchup to target (Danny Jones rush yds being the other 2U play). My #1 confidence play. Dallas Goedert O47.5 Rec yds + 70+ alt lines +240 FD - on the flip side, with CB Adoree Jackson, the matchups on the pass end favor Goedert, who benefits from a much lower line. Worth the main & alt lines assuming it stays around 40’s as it has for pretty much all season. EDIT: DK & Score have 47.5 while FD is way off at 51.5. That changes my alt line play to 70/75 only depending on payout. My #3 confidence play. Dawson Knox O35.5 rec yds, 50+ rec yds +200, 70+ rec yds +480 0.5U FD - CIN's D is a paradox for TE's - they are stingy at the RZ, but their focus on limiting big plays means they give up a lot of yards - and with Knox being Allen's security blanket, this number is a great one to attack for the standard 3.5U alt line play. My #4 confidence play. Christian McCaffrey O63.5 rush yds, 80+ rush yds +180, 100+ rush yds +380 0.5U - this is the most likely path to SF victory, so if I'm taking SF -3, this is the natural correlation play. My #2 confidence play this week. Dalton Schultz O46.5 rec yds 2U - he's still the #2 target, and SF is most vulnerable in the secondary, so I'll definitely take a 2U shot. I won't take the alt lines, though, as I really love the other 4 alt lines I'm already on. So that's 22U at play right now. LONGSHOT TD PLAYS Justin Watson +600 FD - with news that Mecole Hardman had a setback, this is absolutely worth a shot - he will likely get 50+ percent of the snaps, and that number is just so out of line with everyone else. Of note, if Jody Fortson comes off IR, he's one to take, especially if it's at +1000 or better for 0.5U. The line already has dropped to +500, which is still value IMO given Watson's snap count. Chris Manhertz +2000 DK 0.5U / Jamal Agnew +850 DK 0.5U - the 3 starting WR and Engram are all juiced to the gills - but we know KC's pass D is vulnerable, so I'm willing to take a 0.5U play on the backup TE and gadget / return man, who gets 3-4 plays designed for him. Richie James +380 / +4000 DK (1.2U / 0.3U) - you know my thoughts on James, so I have to take a bigger shot on the TD/2+ TD prop here. Lawrence Cager +1300 FD/DK 0.5U - you all know from last 2 weeks he's the better pass catcher. The Donald Parham version for Daboll, gotta take another shot and hope he hangs on to the target at the EZ this time. Joe Burrow +700 FD - same deal as last week, I'm genuinely surprised it was this high when it opened. It's already down to +650 now. Cole Beasley +600 FD 1U / Khalil Shakir +850 0.5U DK - CIN plays a lot of zone, so Beasley is still worth the main play - but Shakir's number makes him worth a 0.5U play as well. CIN is a lot more vulnerable to WR's than TE's, so don't get fooled in chasing TE with last week's 2-TD performance with Knox. NEW - Dak Prescott +700 / +9000 2+ FD (0.8U/0.2U) - I have a ton of respect for SF's run D - but if you're going to score, IMO the QB on a sneak, or a RPO run, is far more likely. At +700/+9000, it's worth backing Jason Ferguson +1400 DK 0.5U / Peyton Hendershot +1400 DK 0.5U - you know the drill, and with SF's D, the backup TE is one area that can be exploited Kyle Jusczyk +1100 DK 0.5U - you know the drill, gotta take the 0.5U shot at this number. Juan Jennings +800 FD 0.5U - NEW) - same idea here, especially since the DAL secondary is beatable. That's already 9U in TD props and almost every team covered (PHI has such poor odds lol), so I think this is likely done unless there are new developments. Warning that JAX feels like me chasing longshots, everyone else I do feel the usage / odds justifies it. So that's 35U at play, definitely enough for now. BOL! Edited January 21, 2023 by Broncofan Goedert updated alt line & JAX O21 added late 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 OK I subbed out the Zay Jones props for a T-Lawrence rush prop - and the DK Etienne rec props & DK Danny Jones rush props came out, so main card's updated above. Still waiting on Goedert props - and DK doesn't have Sun's card yet for player props (while FD is still missing Goedert props, and Etienne rec yds & Danny Jones rush yds), so keep looking to see if there's a better line. BOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Ok Goedert lines are out - FD is way off at 51.5 while DK / Score / Bodog are 47.5 - going there 2U. Likely only going 70+ alt line or 75 depending on odds for 1U once released. Card updated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 locked in Devonte Smith at 60.5 it's now up to 63.5. Richie James 44.5 locked him in at 42.5 it feel good to get ahead of the movement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 FD TD props came out - Jusczyk came out at +1200, Ferguson at +1300 and sure enough, Hendershot at +2100. Taking the 0.5U play on Hendershot, sticking with the DK plays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Realized I left out a KC player prop - NEW - Juju Smith Schuster O51.5 Rec yds 2U; 70+ Rec yds +210 & 90+ rec yds +440 0.5U FD - completely forgot about this. Slot role thrives vs. JAX D. Concussion early in game was only reason Juju didn’t torch JAX 1st game he already had 2/33 in less than 1Q. Only risk besides injury is Toney slot work but Hardman out makes that less likely. My #5 confidence play. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 (edited) SGP+ promo on FD- Deebo 50+ rec yards, Deebo TD, Kelce TD +469 I would take deebo for more yards, but I think he will do some damage on the ground and there is no rec+rush yds option Edited January 19, 2023 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Tee Higgins TD +210 PB (+200 FD) This just went over that +200 mark so I'm nabbing it. Tee will get targets galore and I assume White will be focused on Chase 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 (edited) As a hedge way of backing JAX +9.5 I added JAX O21 on FD - even with a 9.5pt spread, with a total of 52.5,that's a 31.5-22 implied score. If JAX is keeping it close, 21+ pts seems like the absolute floor. If JAX got to +10 or more, easy call. But given the OU team total is the all-important 21, I'll go there. Also added 2 TD additions for SF-DAL yesterday - first on DAL's side, Dak Prescott opened up at +700 & +9000 2+ so I went 0.8U/0.2U - it's unfortunately dropped to +500/+5500. Juan Jennings is still at +800 so I added 0.5U. Been working through the night shift; totally forgot to post (my bad). BOL! Edited January 21, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 (edited) Gotta take a 2U +240 JAX ML shot (opened live after injury). Still +220 on DK. Edited January 21, 2023 by Broncofan YOLO, 2U lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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