Weekly Bets Thread

[BStanRamFan]

CMC O27.5 receiving yards

Calvin Ridley O67.5 receiving yards

James Cook O47.5 rushing yards

 

I'm playing that and all their alt-lines 

[Broncofan]

OK starting my Week 2 SUN card at 7 AM today as DK has about half the games out, FD likely won't have theirs out until after TNF, only a few small TD props out....as always, check B365 out as well ESP for player prop alt lines (but always check TD props, never know):

 

WEEK 2 SUN (+1 MNF)

ATS/ML

OK so have my 5-6 picks this week so far....

EARLY

IND ML +100 @ HOU - both have a new HC & QB, but IND was further along IMO than HOU was.   HFA is the one thing that gives me pause (along with A-Rich being sushi raw), but going with my gut feel... it's only 1U lol.

GB ML +105 @ ATL - This is a major overreaction to ATL's win over CAR, who are still assembling a functional OL, with a rookie QB debut and no Chark (so aging Thielen and green rookie - 2nd year WR's).   ATL's total lack of pass game chops (Ridder really limits them right now, killer for Pitts & London owners) means that while I totally believe in their progress, they're also very binary - if they can run the ball and stay ahead, gamescript works for them.   But if they fall 10+ pts behind, it's over for them IMO.   So I have to take the slight dog odds here, given GB is a pretty complete team (and I give the coaching edge here too).

CIN -3 @ BAL - I know Burrow could still be rusty, and that's why I'm staying off props altogether.   But I'll take the single unit play on CIN, with both BAL missing their 2nd & 3rd best CB, safety and now their C Linderbaum & all-world LT Ronnie Stanley.   

LATE

MIA -3 @ NE - the main reason I take this is that the best parts of NE are their D and their ability to control close games, induces mistakes from the opposition and not shoot themselves in the foot.   The problem is that the teams that give them the biggest matchup problems for their D are speed-based teams - and that's MIA in a nutshell.    With Tua at the the helm, it really leverages their speed threat, and limits the mistakes (as opposed to TeddyB & co. when Tua was out).   So as long as it's 3 or less, I go here.

JAX ML +150 1U (DK 10 pt auto-win condition) - this is more about JAX being at home, and the potential for a 10+ lead early while KC gets more rust off, is too tempting to pass up.  I fully recognize this may look awful later lol. 

5U so far... DK is offering a free 0.4U bet, so I'm going to combine these 5 legs plus the CLE ML -125 for a +7500 7-leg 0.4U ATS/ML parley (above plays, except JAX +3.5 instead of ML; plus LAC & CLE ML).   Again I don't recommend parleys, but if it's a free bet, live a little lol.

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Nico Collins O45.5 rec yds, 75+ yds +320 1U, 100+ yds +800 0.5U DK - soaked up 11 targets, Noah Brown is out (he was #3 guy anyways), and an IND team that's decimated in the secondary.    Tank Dell faces Kenny Moore, so I'm all over this.  I had him projected for 6/65+, so such a boom play.  100 is probably a bridge too far, but it's +800...   #1 confidence play so far.

Michael Pittman O51.5 rec yds, 75+ yds +240 1U, 100+ yds +600 0.5U DK - similar deal to Collins, although HOU's pass D is better than IND's by a fair margin, so 100+ is again likely too far...but it's +600.   I had him projected for 5-70 (bigger ADOT than Collins), so again have to play this.   Guess IND-HOU makes my rotation for TV viewing lol.  

NEW FRI AM - Sam Laporta O34.5 rec yds 2U - SEA remains vulnerable to TE's, and DET showed they are more than willing to get Laporta both playing a lot of snaps, and sending him targets.  The only reason I'm not going alt lines is because Laporta's ADOT wasn't high, he's in the short-areas, so he'd have to start getting more seam routes / vertical action to trust 50+/75+.  I think it's coming, but better to see evidence of this, let's stay at a very manageable # for now.

LATE

Tony Pollard O19.5 rec 2U, 50+ yds +500 1U - NYJ pass D we know about, they funnel to TE & RB's - and DAL is going to want to get him in space.   My #4 confidence play

Jahan Dotson O43.5 rec yds 2U DK - he was well on his way to beating this line with 31 yds in the 1H (and WAS trailing), before rain / gamescript changed things up in the 2H.   To make sure the 2H conservative gameplan isn't a new lasting change, I'll avoid the alt lines for now.

LATE SAT AM Isaiah Hodgins O29.5 rec yds 2U / 50+ rec yds +260 1U / 70+ +580 0.5U FD - overreaction facing a soft ARI secondary, projected for 4/50.  

SNF

Rhamondre Stephenson O18.5 rec yds 2U (already at 23.5 wow), 50+ yds +500 1U (already at +425, no 75 alt line) DK - I won't lie, I'm super tempted to take his O53.5 rush yd prop as well, but I absolutely trust his 18% target share usage with that NE WR corps, and Mac Jones' willingness to check down.   #2 confidence play.

MNF

NEW FRI AM - Rasheed Shaheed O36.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ yds +180 & 75+ yds +500 0.5U - Posting this now so ppl can take advantage of what I think will be a rising line.   Without Jaycee Horn, CAR's pass D takes a fairly big hit.   Don't let the low pass yard totals fool you, ATL plays a mega run-first O, NO showed they're willing to go pass-heavy with their OL issues and talent - Shaheed is clearly their 2nd best WR (sorry Mike Thomas).    May only take 1 play to get the main line.  My #3 confidence play for the week. 

Juwan Johnson O23.5 rec yds 2U DK (crazy no alt line yet) - just way too low.  If there's a 50+ alt line (or 40+ on FD with that number), I'll take 1U more too. 

So that's 22U with 8 SUN plays so far (as Shaheed & Juwan are MNF plays)... 

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Equanimeous St-Brown +2200 / +25000 0.4U / 0.1U DK - I covered it above in another post.  He may in fact be inactive - in which case, this voids.  But if he's active, he's likely replacing Chase Claypool and then becomes the big body WR.   Obviously CHI's O is so bad right now, not going to go a full play, but I have to take a stab

Emmanuel Wilson +700 / +7000 0.4U/0.1U DK - who?  Hes the rookie RB that GB drafted, and it looks more & more that AJ Dillon is the starter this week and Aaron Jones out with his TD-run hammy injury, but Dillon looked like he was in quicksand.   Wilson was inactive, but I suspect he's going to be the backup to Dillon, and given Dillon's play, it's worth a shot.   Here's the rub - ppl will look at boxscores and think Patrick Taylor is the backup, but much like Roschon Johnson & D'onta Foreman, I think it's Wilson.  I wanted the FD lines, but I also don't want to miss out on value, so taking 0.4U/0.1 DK now, and leave room for 0.4U/0.1U more if FD is better.    B365 bettors check out it may be better there too.

Roschon Johnson +600 / +8500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - DK wised up already, and put him at +450.  FD still has him behind D'onta Foreman, and so this is a chance to capitalize.   He's the clear pass work RB, and against TAM, that's how you deploy RB's.    Worth a second stab.

Justyn Ross +800 / +1000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U DK - it didn't hit week 1 as Ross was only out for 2 RZ pass plays (but he was isolated 1 on 1 by himself) but if anything, the TNF performance will likely bring more interest.   With Kelce back, though, it's only a 0.4/0.1 play.    If he's inactive, then it voids.

Donald Parham +600 (now +450) / +6000 (0.8U/0.2U) DK (also +600 / +11000 2+ on SportsInteraction) - so sad he didn't hit his 2-TD prop, DK has already started to come around.   Gets 1-2 targets a game if he's healthy in RZ, and often in the EZ.    Easy play at those odds. EDIT SAT PM:   Didn't realize that my bet for Parham didn't go through, so I was faced with taking worse odds, but then SI offered +600 / +11000, so I'm still in, and even better 2+ TD odds - fingers crossed lol).  

NEW FRI AM - Colby Parkinson +1100 FD / +10000 2+ DK 0.8/0.2U (if you have FD, consider waiting) - Parkinson has won the #2 TE job in SEA, and he's SEA's version of Donald Parham / Jody Fortson - matchup nightmare in the RZ.  He split snaps with Noah Fant, but last December started to be more of a timeshare.   Because these are FD odds, for longshots we often see a last hour rise, so I'm posting so you're aware, but you may want to wait (I took the DK as that won't change, but waiting on the 1-TD FD prop).

LATE 

NEW SAT AM - Isaiah Hodgins +500 / +6000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U on DK.   He’s a top 3 guy and a big target with prior chemistry with Danny Jones.   In a get-right game I’d be shocked if he didn’t get 1-2 looks inside the 10 if not the EZ.

Brandon Johnson +950 FD 0.4U / +7500 DK 0.1U (but waiting until 3 PM ET as odds often increase) - there's no 2-TD prop on FD, but the 1-TD prop is too good to pass up if it gets past +1000, given his size and likely active status to still be in RZ plays.   

MNF

Cedric Tillman +1400 / +20000 2+,  Harrison Bryant +1400 / +2000 2+, David Bell +2000 / +25000 2+ DK - all 0.4U/0.1U - with news that Amari Cooper tweaked his groin on Saturday's last practice, the one he had surgery on, taking insane odds on the guys who benefit the most.   

So that's 7U on TD props (1.5U on MNF as well), so we're at 34U so far for Week 2 Sunday.  I'll update this card as I add to the list.  BOL!

TOTAL TO WEEK 2 TNF

ATS / ML - 2-1, +1.2U.    

PLAYER PROPS 6-8, -8.2U

LONGSHOT TD - 3-9, +7.3U (WK1 - Shaheed +600, R-Johnson +900, Parham +800)

NET - +0.3U Week 1 - +3.0U; Week 2 TNF - -2.7U)

Edited September 18, 2023 by Broncofan

[MikeT14]

Howell O 199.5 yards passing.

We tried to throw a lot last week. I don't see that changing much. 

Dotson O43.5 receiving.

He was almost there before weather shut down the 2nd half. 

[Soggust]

14 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

For ppl who can live bet - Den 2H live props worth considering.  Quite the decision by Riverboat Ron - there's no way to get fully used to altitude whether it's 2 vs 3 days, but cutting it to under 24 hours, generally not recommended for full go in first 24 hours... now, we're not talking medical risks (unless you sickle cell trait - why some players with that condition don't play, or play a lot less), but performance-wise, quite counter-intuitive. 

 

Bro wat lol

I've never been to Denver and haven't even bothered to google this crap I'm about to spew (per usual), but as an MMA fan (more so than NFL) - dudes who sign to fight at elevation will often go out WEEKS ahead of time in order to acclimate to the elevation.

Now perhaps I'm just an ignorant Neanderthal here, but Ron - You aren't going to convince me that you can skip the effects by trying to get out of the water before you get wet. 

This seems like the dumbest bro science I've heard in a long time lol.

 

[Broncofan]

25 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Bro wat lol

I've never been to Denver and haven't even bothered to google this crap I'm about to spew (per usual), but as an MMA fan (more so than NFL) - dudes who sign to fight at elevation will often go out WEEKS ahead of time in order to acclimate to the elevation.

Now perhaps I'm just an ignorant Neanderthal here, but Ron - You aren't going to convince me that you can skip the effects by trying to get out of the water before you get wet. 

This seems like the dumbest bro science I've heard in a long time lol.

 

Well, it's definitely not conventional thinking lol.

I like the new ownership.   But the past record with WFT / Redskins era with Snyder did call into question if their medical / training staff were competent.   A lot of criticism is overblown, or lacks context.   But it's hard to argue that perception if someone in their medical/training staff signed off on this.   Again it's not likely to be life-threatening re: altitude sickness, but the drop in performance with trying to go all-out in the first 24 hours at altitude...well, that's quite the hypothesis.

I mentioned it in our DEN forum, but if we lose this game with that plan, we have ZERO excuses.   Every Given Sunday, but peak performance wise, it's hard to think WAS will be at their best.   It's also why I'm only going with main line play with Dotson in my bets lol.

[Rainmaker90]

Love the Collins prop @Broncofan. He’s a staple in my DFS lineups 

[Broncofan]

BTW in case ppl wonder why I'm not playing any BUF props - it was very clear that Josh Allen may have hurt his left wrist on the 1-yard dive early in the 3Q, and then may have aggravated that with the botched snap & dive-fumble.   That makes it really hard to take Allen rush props (which were well on the way to hitting), even though it's hs non-throwing arm, the coaches may want to protect him more from himself and limit his runs.   It makes @BStanRamFan's call of Cook rush yards stronger too, but it gives me pause on taking any BUF O props that aren't other-guy run props, until I see Allen is OK.

 

Don't get me wrong, I think BUF wins, because it took 4 TO's to lose the game to NYJ, but everything runs through Allen other than the often-ignored BUF run game, so it's better to sit tight sometimes.   The same reasoning is why I'm off Sam Howell rush yard props this week, given he got absolutely blown up twice (and the 1st on his 1st drive, see below).

 

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Broncofan

[Rainmaker90]

FanDuel has a offer 

 

Jefferson or Brown leading in receiving yards +100

[adamq]

32 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said:

FanDuel has a offer 

 

Jefferson or Brown leading in receiving yards +100

Times like this is when I look at KJ Osborn +2600 and think, maybe 🤣

[Broncofan]

So Aaron Jones (plus Christian Watson) 2nd straight DNP this week.   I'd guess both miss the game vs. ATL, which I was counting on.

 

 

With that news, I'm adding another longshot TD guy - Emmanuel Wilson +700 / +7000 0.4U/0.1U DK - who?  Hes the rookie RB that GB drafted, and it looks more & more that AJ Dillon is the starter this week and Aaron Jones out with his TD-run hammy injury, but Dillon looked like he was in quicksand.   Wilson was inactive, but I suspect he's going to be the backup to Dillon, and given Dillon's play, it's worth a shot.   Here's the rub - ppl will look at boxscores and think Patrick Taylor is the backup, but much like Roschon Johnson & D'onta Foreman, I think it's Wilson.  I wanted the FD lines, but I also don't want to miss out on value, so taking 0.4U/0.1 DK now, and leave room for 0.4U/0.1U more if FD is better.    B365 bettors check out it may be better there too.

Edited September 14, 2023 by Broncofan

[Fresh Prince]

Neither team to score 3 unanswered drives +155 

[SaveOurSonics]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Nico Collins O45.5 rec yds

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Michael Pittman O51.5 rec yds

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Roschon Johnson +600

Really like these ones. I’m already heavy into these 3 guys in futures bets, but I’ll keep pounding their weekly line until Vegas adjusts. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

2 hours ago, Rainmaker90 said:

FanDuel has a offer 

 

Jefferson or Brown leading in receiving yards +100

I considered smashing but Jefferson did struggle last year

[stl4life07]

Some have said DK has a Jalen Hurts 1+ completion for +100. Some even have max $50. I saw max $25 too. Definitely take advantage of that if you can. 

[stl4life07]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK starting my Week 2 SUN card at 7 AM today as DK has about half the games out, FD likely won't have theirs out until after TNF, only a few small TD props out....as always, check B365 out as well ESP for player prop alt lines (but always check TD props, never know):

 

ATS/ML

OK so have my 5-6 picks this week so far....

EARLY

IND ML +100 - both have a new HC & QB, but IND was further along IMO than HOU was.   HFA is the one thing that gives me pause (along with A-Rich being sushi raw), but going with my gut feel... it's only 1U lol.

GB ML +105 - This is a major overreaction to ATL's win over CAR, who are still assembling a functional OL, with a rookie QB debut and no Chark (so aging Thielen and green rookie - 2nd year WR's).   ATL's total lack of pass game chops (Ridder really limits them right now, killer for Pitts & London owners) means that while I totally believe in their progress, they're also very binary - if they can run the ball and stay ahead, gamescript works for them.   But if they fall 10+ pts behind, it's over for them IMO.   So I have to take the slight dog odds here, given GB is a pretty complete team (and I give the coaching edge here too).

CIN -3 @ BAL - I know what @SmittyBacall is saying re: Burrow, and that's why I'm staying off props altogether.   But I'll take the single unit play on CIN, with both BAL missing their 2nd & 3rd best CB, safety and now their C Linderbaum & all-world LT Ronnie Stanley.   

LATE

MIA -3 @ NE - the main reason I take this is that the best parts of NE are their D and their ability to control close games, induces mistakes from the opposition and not shoot themselves in the foot.   The problem is that the teams that give them the biggest matchup problems for their D are speed-based teams - and that's MIA in a nutshell.    With Tua at the the helm, it really leverages their speed threat, and limits the mistakes (as opposed to TeddyB & co. when Tua was out).   So as long as it's 3 or less, I go here.

JAX ML +140 1U (DK 10 pt auto-win condition) - this is more about JAX being at home, and the potential for a 10+ lead early while KC gets more rust off, is too tempting to pass up.  I fully recognize this may look awful later lol. 

5U so far... DK is offering a free 0.4U bet, so I'm going to combine these 5 legs plus the CLE ML -125 for a +7000 6-leg 0.4U ATS/ML parley (above plus CLE ML).   Again I don't recommend parleys, but if it's a free bet, live a little lol.

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Nico Collins O45.5 rec yds, 75+ rec yds +320 1U, 100+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK - soaked up 11 targets, Noah Brown is out (he was #3 guy anyways), and an IND team that's decimated in the secondary.    Tank Dell faces Kenny Moore, so I'm all over this.  I had him projected for 6/65+, so such a boom play.  100 is probably a bridge too far, but it's +800...   #1 confidence play so far.

Michael Pittman O51.5 rec yds, 75 rec yds +240 1U, 100+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK - similar deal to Collins, although HOU's pass D is better than IND's by a fair margin, so 100+ is again likely too far...but it's +600.   I had him projected for 5-70 (bigger ADOT than Collins), so again have to play this.   Guess IND-HOU makes my rotation for TV viewing lol.  

LATE

Tony Pollard O19.5 rec 2U, 50+ rec yds +500 1U - NYJ pass D we know about, they funnel to TE & RB's - and DAL is going to want to get him in space.   My #4 confidence play

Jahan Dotson O43.5 rec yds 2U DK - he was well on his way to beating this line with 31 yds in the 1H (and WAS trailing), before rain / gamescript changed things up in the 2H.   To make sure the 2H conservative gameplan isn't a new lasting change, I'll avoid the alt lines for now.

SNF

Rhamondre Stephenson O18.5 rec yds 2U (already at 22.5 wow), 50+ rec yds +500 1U (already at +425, no 75 alt line) DK - I won't lie, I'm super tempted to take his O53.5 rush yd prop as well, but I absolutely trust his 18% target share usage with that NE WR corps, and Mac Jones' willingness to check down.   #2 confidence play.

So that's 15U in 5 plays so far...

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Equanameous St-Brown +2200 / +25000 0.4U / 0.1U DK - I covered it above in another post.  He may in fact be inactive - in which case, this voids.  But if he's active, he's likely replacing Chase Claypool and then becomes the big body WR.   Obviously CHI's O is so bad right now, not going to go a full play, but I have to take a stab

Emmanuel Wilson +700 / +7000 0.4U/0.1U DK - who?  Hes the rookie RB that GB drafted, and it looks more & more that AJ Dillon is the starter this week and Aaron Jones out with his TD-run hammy injury, but Dillon looked like he was in quicksand.   Wilson was inactive, but I suspect he's going to be the backup to Dillon, and given Dillon's play, it's worth a shot.   Here's the rub - ppl will look at boxscores and think Patrick Taylor is the backup, but much like Roschon Johnson & D'onta Foreman, I think it's Wilson.  I wanted the FD lines, but I also don't want to miss out on value, so taking 0.4U/0.1 DK now, and leave room for 0.4U/0.1U more if FD is better.    B365 bettors check out it may be better there too.

Roschon Johnson +600 / +8500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - DK wised up already, and put him at +450.  FD still has him behind D'onta Foreman, and so this is a chance to capitalize.   He's the clear pass work RB, and against TAM, that's how you deploy RB's.    Worth a second stab.

Justyn Ross +800 / +1000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U DK - it didn't hit week 1 as Ross was only out for 2 RZ pass plays (but he was isolated 1 on 1 by himself) but if anything, the TNF performance will likely bring more interest.   With Kelce back, though, it's only a 0.4/0.1 play.    If he's inactive, then it voids.

Donald Parham +600 (now +550) / +6000 (0.8U/0.2U) DK - so sad he didn't hit his 2-TD prop, DK has already started to come around.   Gets 1-2 targets a game if he's healthy in RZ, and often in the EZ.    Easy play at those odds.

There are a couple more props I'm waiting on SEA-DET & BAL-CIN & WAS-DEN game, as DK has a little value on guys, but not enough to take right away.  So that's 3.5U on TD props, so we're at 23.5U so far for Week 2 Sunday.  I'll update this card as I add to the list.  BOL!

 

TOTAL TO WEEK 2 TNF

ATS / ML - 2-1, +1.2U.    

PLAYER PROPS 5-7, -6.5U.  

LONGSHOT TD - 3-8, +8.3U (WK1 - Shaheed +600, R-Johnson +900, Parham +800)

NET - +3.0U (Week 1 - +3.0U)

Caesars have GB ML +110 currently. I like it. I also like the Steelers too.