Weekly Bets Thread

[BobbyPhil1781]

Anyone use Barstool? Happening to you?

https://x.com/JPWVOH/status/1704502692054200672?s=20

[adamq]

Boost on Caesers until 9PM, CMC 75+ rush yards +100. $50 max

 

Soooo he'll rush for 43 yards and have 78 receiving yards 🤣

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, adamq said:

Boost on Caesers until 9PM, CMC 75+ rush yards +100. $50 max

 

Soooo he'll rush for 43 yards and have 78 receiving yards 🤣

That's really meh value IMO.   

Now that we're into Week 3, and the books have ppl hooked into betting football - beware on meh value props.  This is absolutely one of those possible situations.  I don't even know if it's a 10 percent gain in value.

Fanduel, on the other hand, has a Diggs 60+ rec yrds / BUF win for +140 prop ($20 limit for me).   That's at least a 30 percent boost on implied value.  Of course now it won't win, but at least I'm getting the right value for the bet going in.

[Broncofan]

22 hours ago, Broncofan said:

There's one Sunday prop I would recommend taking now, because you know the line's going to drop further - Rasheed Shaheed +600 / +6500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK - I get it, GB's got a decent pass D, but all the focus is on Chris Olave, and that's why Shaheed has gotten behind D's 3x now (2x Week 1, 1x last week).  And yes, sneak preview, if they keep giving me sub-40 yard props, I'm going to have him on my player props list.    Get it now before it drops (the G-men WR line dropped within less than 30 mins lol).

A couple of super long shots with Sunday's TD plays  but I have to take the 0.4U/0.1U stab, and a favorite you all know I'm backing (above), and my absolute favorite longshot this week just posted on DK (and it's decent on FD, and also great on B365, so everyone should be able to play it) - @N4L @SmittyBacall @thebestever6 @BobbyPhil1781 @adamq @NYRaider @SaveOurSonics @Ray Reed @11sanchez11 @Rainmaker90 @Wentz you dog you @stl4life07

Xavier Hutchinson +2200 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - he's #4 on the depth chart behind our week 2 hero Nico Collins, Robert Woods and Tank Dell.   But he's also a big body WR, who fits more of what Noah Brown offered, when he went to the IR.   Got a bump in his snaps, and in practices you see him working with Stroud.  Total dart throw, but there's the reasoning.   I don't mind the fact HOU is likely in catchup mode, too - garbage time could get him more snaps, so at that number (I'd have set the line at +1000), I have to take the half-stake stab.

Emanuel Wilson +1500 / +17500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - with news Aaron Jones missed practice again today, I think it's at least 50-50 he misses another game.   Now, NO is a terrible matchup, but again, it's the odds.   AJ Dillon looked again like he was in quicksand.    Fans and online reporters are calling for more PT.   He did get his feet wet with 3 carries and about 10 snaps - I think he gets a bigger snap share, so again, it's about the odds.   This is something I'd have lined at about +800 to +1000, so worth a half-stake stab.

***Cole Turner - BEST LONGSHOT VALUE OF YEAR SO FAR (NO GUARANTEES THOUGH STILL ONLY +300 real odds IMO - but look at these book odds) +1100 / +12500 2+ B365; +1200 / +15000 2+ TD 0.8U / 0.2U to play*** - Logan Thomas is in concussion protocol, and that hit was nasty.   I'd be shocked if he's not out thiw week.  Cole Turner is almost certainly the guy who steps in as the receiver (John Bates is the blocking TE, but he's getting +500 on DK/FD <BTW, Bates is +1800/+2500 2+ on B365, so it's not crazy to go 0.25U/0.05U at that price - but Turner's the guy who does 85+ percent of the pass-catching work>), and he's a talented receiver.   I'm going to recommend 0.8U/0.2U above but I'll go YOLO myself and take 1.2U/0.3U with Kelly-betting principles.

 

Converted big body WR who's in year 2.   Size mismatch vs. DB's, speed mismatch vs. ILB's in coverage.    Why does that sound familiar?   Yes, that's Juwan Johnson's career track.   John Bates is +500 on FD & DK, while on FD Turner is +700.  If you only have FD, I'd play 0.4U/0.1U, but Turner is going to play pretty much all the passing downs, and he's got great chemistry with Howell already.   Unlike the above 0.4U/0.1U longshots, I know Turner will see the field in the RZ.   And he's shown crazy ability, witness.

 

 

 

PSA - much like Juwan Johnson in year 2-3, he's not playable in fantasy.  Don't pick him up as when Logan Thomas is back, he's going back to backup status (sigh) while he refines his TE skills and understanding of the scheme role.

 

 

I'm keeping a close eye on Juwan Johnson, but wondering if the line will go up.   I'm sad that Kendre Miller starts this week knowing he's got a big timeshare or might even be the starter (Tony Jones is JAG, even with the 2-TD's - last man standing).   So sadly his TD prop is unplayable at +200 range. 

 

A LOT of slates that aren't open yet, but those 2 plays stood out to grab now and get ahead of the line movement.   BOL!

 

 

Edited September 21, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

I guess the books think JAX D limiting KC to 17 pts and him never exploding like he did vs. IND justifies posting a similar line this week, but Nico Collins O51.5 rec yds 2U / 75+ +240 1U / 100+ +550 0.5U DK is an auto-bet for player props for me again.  CJ Stroud is legit, and Collins is his alpha go-to guy.    Standard 3.5U play.

This one's riskier, because he's so injury-prone, but as long as he plays, Raheem Mostert should absolutely shred the porous DEN run D.   Mostert O61.5 rush yds 2U & 100+ 500+ 1U DK play (75+ isn't that great at +160) for 3U.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Broncofan

[BobbyPhil1781]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

A couple of super long shots with Sunday's TD plays  but I have to take the 0.4U/0.1U stab, and a favorite you all know I'm backing (above), and my absolute favorite longshot this week just posted on DK (and it's decent on FD, and also great on B365, so everyone should be able to play it) - @N4L @SmittyBacall @thebestever6 @BobbyPhil1781 @adamq @NYRaider @SaveOurSonics @Ray Reed @11sanchez11 @Rainmaker90 @Wentz you dog you @stl4life07

Xavier Hutchinson +2200 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - he's #4 on the depth chart behind our week 2 hero Nico Collins, Robert Woods and Tank Dell.   But he's also a big body WR, who fits more of what Noah Brown offered, when he went to the IR.   Got a bump in his snaps, and in practices you see him working with Stroud.  Total dart throw, but there's the reasoning.   I don't mind the fact HOU is likely in catchup mode, too - garbage time could get him more snaps, so at that number (I'd have set the line at +1000), I have to take the half-stake stab.

Emanuel Wilson +1500 / +17500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - with news Aaron Jones missed practice again today, I think it's at least 50-50 he misses another game.   Now, NO is a terrible matchup, but again, it's the odds.   AJ Dillon looked again like he was in quicksand.    Fans and online reporters are calling for more PT.   He did get his feet wet with 3 carries and about 10 snaps - I think he gets a bigger snap share, so again, it's about the odds.   This is something I'd have lined at about +800 to +1000, so worth a half-stake stab.

***Cole Turner - BEST LONGSHOT VALUE OF YEAR SO FAR (NO GUARANTEES THOUGH STILL ONLY +300 real odds IMO - but look at these book odds) +1100 / +12500 2+ B365; +1200 / +15000 2+ TD 0.8U / 0.2U to play*** - Logan Thomas is in concussion protocol, and that hit was nasty.   I'd be shocked if he's not out thiw week.  Cole Turner is almost certainly the guy who steps in as the receiver (John Bates is the blocking TE, but he's getting +500 on DK/FD <BTW, Bates is +1800/+2500 2+ on B365, so it's not crazy to go 0.25U/0.05U at that price - but Turner's the guy who does 85+ percent of the pass-catching work>), and he's a talented receiver.   I'm going to recommend 0.8U/0.2U above but I'll go YOLO myself and take 1.2U/0.3U with Kelly-betting principles.

 

Converted big body WR who's in year 2.   Size mismatch vs. DB's, speed mismatch vs. ILB's in coverage.    Why does that sound familiar?   Yes, that's Juwan Johnson's career track.   John Bates is +500 on FD & DK, while on FD Turner is +700.  If you only have FD, I'd play 0.4U/0.1U, but Turner is going to play pretty much all the passing downs, and he's got great chemistry with Howell already.   Unlike the above 0.4U/0.1U longshots, I know Turner will see the field in the RZ.   And he's shown crazy ability, witness.

 

 

 

PSA - much like Juwan Johnson in year 2-3, he's not playable in fantasy.  Don't pick him up as when Logan Thomas is back, he's going back to backup status (sigh) while he refines his TE skills and understanding of the scheme role.

 

 

I'm keeping a close eye on Juwan Johnson, but wondering if the line will go up.   I'm sad that Kendre Miller starts this week knowing he's got a big timeshare or might even be the starter (Tony Jones is JAG, even with the 2-TD's - last man standing).   So sadly his TD prop is unplayable at +200 range. 

 

A LOT of slates that aren't open yet, but those 2 plays stood out to grab now and get ahead of the line movement.   BOL!

 

 

I usually don't do TD bets but your write up always helps. You said odds increase the closer it gets to game time, right? These are excellent odds.

Think I saw CMC to get 2 TDs on FD at +170 or something. Unreal that anyone else entertain that as well as those being the odds.

[N4L]

TNF - One thing to note is that it is super smoky here from wildfires very far north. I haven't gone outside or opened my windows in 2 days. Not good. I am not sure how this will affect the game but there is potential for it to slow things down a bit. There is a chance it will clear up if the wind shifts, but as of right now that does not look promising. 

SF team total over 27.5 - the giants defense has not played well. The niners offense is a buzz saw. They scored 20 points in the first quarter against the steelers and scored 30 last week after leaving a decent amount of points on the field. Large spread means the value isnt fantastic here, but I think this is a feasible number considering the cardinals scored 28 last week in the first 3 quarters. Most importantly, Kyle seems to genuinely trust Purdy, and it has made him significantly more aggressive with his play calling. They need 4 TDs and I think Kyle will look to be aggressive early to try and put the game out of reach. If there was a way to bet their first half team total, I would. 

Deebo over 55 rec yards, all the way up to 105 - He was more heavily featured last week after Aiyuk got banged up. He is yet to really break a big play. I think this is the week. With aiyuk banged up, cmc getting absurd usage a few days ago, with Kittle playing through a groin injury, I think Deebo will be the focal point of the offense. He is the type of player that keeps knocking on the door and eventually breaks it down. He could easily get 12 targets this week. I love this one. 

Cmc over 83 rush yards - 10 point home favorite. RB who gets nearly 100% of the touches and has the ability to break big runs. It just makes sense and I love betting the over on the rushing total of heavy favorites. 

Daniel Jones over 41 rush yards - niners have struggled with QBs rushing in the past. The pass rush is super aggressive and the LBs are used to cover the deep part of the field. The niners will have the lead so I think the giants will drop back to pass a lot and that will give him opportunities to scramble

49ers to score on their first drive, yes +111 - They have one of the most efficient offenses in the league and they have scored TDs on their first drive in both games this year. Purdy seems to come ready to play and does not need time to "settle in". That is actually one of the things I like most about him, he comes ready to play with a laser focus. 

 

I did a correlated parlay of the niners ML, niners over 27.5 team total, and the cmc rushing yards over at +200. I also did one with Elijah mitchell over 31 rush yards, niners ML, niners over 27.5 team total for +250 or something like that. I risked 25% on the Elijah Mitchell one. A lot of smart niners fans that I trust seem to think he should get some (10+) carries this week. I remain skeptical but the reasoning is sound, so we will make that bet. I dont think he gets a lot of carries if the niners 

[Broncofan]

9 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

I usually don't do TD bets but your write up always helps. You said odds increase the closer it gets to game time, right? These are excellent odds.

Think I saw CMC to get 2 TDs on FD at +170 or something. Unreal that anyone else entertain that as well as those being the odds.

For DK it's not changing much.  It's only FD where the odds skyrocket last-minute.   I wouldn't wait if it's DK or B365, just take the odds.  I also would never wait if it's a play where an injury is leading to more PT.  Once the books realize that Thomas is out, both TE props are going massively down.

As they're all DK props, if you want to dive in, you do it now....actually, last night.

[BobbyPhil1781]

19 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

For DK it's not changing much.  It's only FD where the odds skyrocket last-minute.   I wouldn't wait if it's DK or B365, just take the odds.  I also would never wait if it's a play where an injury is leading to more PT.  Once the books realize that Thomas is out, both TE props are going massively down.

As they're all DK props, if you want to dive in, you do it now....actually, last night.

Good to know. Thanks! Like I said, I typically don't use these plays so I never look at them and was just taking what I remember you talking about last week w/ odds going up closer to game time. Appreciate it, as always!

[Broncofan]

OK so I'm more than a little terrified, because I've isolated 9 player props for Sunday's card.  GULP, but gotta trust the evals...

 

WEEK 3 SUNDAY CARD 

 

ATS/ML (WEEK 3 to TNF - 2-4-1, -1.9U)

LAC ML pick 'em - technically, LAC is a 1-pt dog, but it's really a pick 'em.   Fun fact, 0-2 ATS teams are something like 60-70 percent winners ATS in week 3.   But more in this situation, I'm all over Herbert (although HC Staley really sucks at D, which is supposed to be his thing, and is losing his aggression - double whammy bad combo).   Still, Kellen Moore's vertical scheme is a massive problem for MIN.   

NO ML +110 - there's one way NO loses (besides losing the TO game, always the X factor),  and that's HC Dennis Allen & Pete Carmichael deciding Taysom Hill should be the focus (runs AND pass catching last week....aggravating).   Open up the pass O, use Kendre Miller, and the NO D will control GB's O (although having Christian Watson will help Jordan Love, who's really making progress, a lot).  Bad coaching could backfire here for sure (as GB has the clear edge here), but  I think the wrong team's favored here, so I'll take plus money here.  

WAS +7 0.5U, ML +240 0.5U (DK auto-win 10 pt lead) - I know DEN's D sucks - but ppl overlook that week 1 was Howell's debut in Bienemy's new scheme, and an early massive cheap shot hit on him, plus a lot of rain in the 2H, contracted the game plan vs.  ARI.   So everyone thinks that WAS is a massive dog to BUF and DEN was a bad showing, when in reality the WAS O is just learning the scheme and getting going.  On the D side, Chase Young's return and the new DB's drafted have made a huge impact (yes they gave up the big plays, so that's an Achilles to exploit).   The reality is that BUF should be favored, but I think this stays within 7 pts.  I can't resist splitting this into a +240 ML for 0.5U with DK's 10-pt auto-payout, too.   

So that's 3U for ATS/ML...

 

PLAYER PROPS (WEEK 3 to TNF:  14-14, -0.2U)

EARLY

Nico Collins O51.5 rec yds 2U / 75+ +240 1U / 100+ +550 0.5U DK - already covered before

Raheem Mostert O61.5 rush yds 2U & 100+ 500+ 1U DK - already covered before....please don't get hurt Raheem.

Rasheed Shaheed O40.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds +550 DK 1U NEW FRI AM - added 100+ +1200 DK 0.5U - by now, you should know the drill. Shaheed is an ascendant talent - his only reason the totals are so low is because he's not used enough.    OC Pete Carmichael and HC Dennis Allen should be roasted for using Taysom Hill in pass catching over Shaheed & Juwan Johnson.   Still, the GB D is focused on Chris Olave, and that means more room for Shaheed.  As we saw last week, sometimes it's just 1 play that gets there.    Until they use him more, though, I can only put the main line and 1 alt line for now.  EDIT:  with the Ronnie Bell TD, going YOLO and adding 100+ +1200 for 0.5U.  OK NO coaches, maybe throw it deep and more often to him in the first 55 mins this game...lol..

Mike Williams O61.5 rec yds 2U, 90+ rec yds +300 1U, 125+ rec yds +850 0.5U FD - MIN's secondary is their weakness (Flores is so aggressive it masks it to an extent), and chunk plays are how O's beat them.  That's Mike Williams.  Won't lie, much like Mostert and my late game special, the injury-prone risk is what terrifies me this week, but this is the bright neon-light play at only 62+ yds (Keenan Allen is already past 75).   How crazy is the game line projected to be? Well, DK didn't put out an alt line, only FD has so far.  So I'll take the FD setup & hold my breath DK doesn't crush it. 

KEEPING:  Zay Flowers O48.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds +300, 100+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK - IND secondary matchup is a beauty (see HOU pass O, Nico Collins), and Flowers is the undisputed alpha in this group.   Mark Andrews is the one risk, but IND's run D is very good, so it sets up a pass funnel situation.  The 100+ is a reach, but the value is good there (I'm sure B365 will be better, if you have it, check it out) EDIT SUN AM:  The wind forecasts have definitely died down, so I'm willing to stick with it, rather than take the 10-15% cashout loss on the props.   Will bank on short area throws and YAC ability to remain.

Rhamondre Stevenson O20.5 rec yds, 50+ rec yds +500 1U DK - OK, BB & Bill O'Brien, you're facing a top 10 (and really, likely top 5 if the O didn't keep stalling and getting the D tired) pass D, and the 30th pass D by DVOA vs. RB's.  This should be EASY - you use Rhamondre in the pass game.    I won't lie, I had so much confidence they'd do the same vs MIA (not as leaky vs RB as NYJ, but a good matchup nonetheless), it worries me here.   Still, DAL was smart enough to go to Pollard in the pass game, I have to believe BOB (great OC, terrible HC) & BB will remedy that this week.   If B365 had 75+ yard props (DK doesn't), I'd play it (remember, I'm restricted there - dammit). 

NEW LATE FRI PM:  Kendre Miller O39.5 rush yds 2U, 75+ +600 1U on DK (not out on FD, 50+ is only +140 on DK, no way).   He's finally healthy, and drafted in R3 to be the Mark Ingram to Kamara when he's back.  GB rush D is def vulnerable to this.   Full practices, not listed on injury report, gotta take the 3U dive.     Tony Jones took over last MNF, but he was the only backup RB, and Miller was inactive after his preseason hamstring injury.   It's 2 games late, but for Miller, it's a great matchup to get started on.

Sadly Cole Turner rec yds props aren't out, I suspect they're not coming.

LATE

Kenneth Walker O61.5 rush yds 2U, 100+ +400 1U, 125+ +1100 0.5U DK - scary, scary, scary, because like Mostert he's so injury-prone.  But this is a home matchup, vs a CAR D that's struggling to stop the run, and lost their anchor Shaq Thompson.   If you're on B365 the 75/100 line is probably worth taking by itself, as the 125+ isn't likely to hit, but the odds are so good (and likely better on B365 too). 

DK gave me a 0.4U free bet, so I'm putting all 7 original player props (Nico Collins rec yds, Mostert rush yds, Shaheed rec yds, M-Wiliams rec yds, Flowers rec yds, Rhamondre rec yds & K-Walker rush yds) for +7300.  Besides being free (and less than 5 percent of my stake) - if the first 6 props hit in the early slate, I can hedge an under on the Walker rush yd prop, who's playing late (whose yardage line is also likely to only go up from here to Sunday, and offer a middle opportunity).   So that's 26U in 8 

 

 

LONGSHOT TD (5-19, +17.5U)

EARLY

Rasheed Shaheed +600 / +6500 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) DK - covered before.   Already down to low +400 range.

Juwan Johnson +400 / +4000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) DK - if it's +400 or better, auto-bet, and pray OC Carmichael & HC Allen actually watch the film and realize Shaheed & JJ need more targets overall and in the RZ for JJ.

Emanuel Wilson +1500 / +17500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - with news Aaron Jones missed practice again today, I think it's at least 50-50 he misses another game.   Now, NO is a terrible matchup, but again, it's the odds.   AJ Dillon looked again like he was in quicksand.    Fans and online reporters are calling for more PT.   He did get his feet wet with 3 carries and about 10 snaps - I think he gets a bigger snap share, so again, it's about the odds.   This is something I'd have lined at about +800 to +1000, so worth a half-stake stab.

Xavier Hutchinson +2200 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - he's #4 on the depth chart behind our week 2 hero Nico Collins, Robert Woods and Tank Dell.   But he's also a big body WR, who fits more of what Noah Brown offered, when he went to the IR.   Got a bump in his snaps, and in practices you see him working with Stroud.  Total dart throw, but there's the reasoning.   I don't mind the fact HOU is likely in catchup mode, too - garbage time could get him more snaps, so at that number (I'd have set the line at +1000), I have to take the half-stake stab.

***Cole Turner - BEST LONGSHOT VALUE OF YEAR SO FAR (NO GUARANTEES THOUGH STILL ONLY +300 real odds IMO - but look at these book odds) +1100 / +12500 2+ B365; +1200 / +15000 2+ TD 0.8U / 0.2U to play*** - Logan Thomas is in concussion protocol, and that hit was nasty.   I'd be shocked if he's not out thiw week.  Cole Turner is almost certainly the guy who steps in as the receiver (John Bates is the blocking TE, but he's getting +500 on DK/FD <BTW, Bates is +1800/+2500 2+ on B365, so it's not crazy to go 0.25U/0.05U at that price - but Turner's the guy who does 85+ percent of the pass-catching work>), and he's a talented receiver.   I'm going to recommend 0.8U/0.2U above but I'll go YOLO myself and take 1.2U/0.3U with Kelly-betting principles.

NEW ADDED FRI AM:  Zonovan (Bam) Knight +1300 DK (+1200 FD) / +2000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - Craig Reynolds is +200, but there's no guarantee Knight wouldn't pass Reynolds, who's truly JAG.   Knight played very well in NYJ, and Dan Campbell isn't afraid to be bold.  At this price, worth the stab.   If he's inactive, it voids. 

NEW ADDED SUN AM Chris Brooks +1400 / +18000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - Salvin Ahmed doubtful.  That makes Brooks the short yardage / GL back if Mostert needs rest.  Achane not short yardage.  If he’s inactive it voids.

NEW ADDED SUN AM:  Robbie Chosen (formerly Robbie Anderson then Chosen Anderson...lol) +2100 (+1400 + 50% DK Boost) / +16000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - well, I had 1 50 percent boost token left, I was going to use it on Cole Turner alt line for yards, or main line for yards, but I've had my eye on the MIA PS receiver so I'll go here.  Why?  Simple, MIA LOVES size/speed, and the 2 guys that are replacing Jaylen Waddle (Braxton Berrios & River Cracraft), don't have (Berrios has speed but no size).   So I think even though he's on the PS, he'll get looks.   And with the 50% boost to +2100 on DK, that's good enough for me.   If you "only" have +1400, that's probably worth a 0.25U/0.05U play.   
 

NEW SUN AM Mo Alie Cox +1000 / +10000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U.   Better weather means I can take MAC who splits snaps with Kylen Granson (Granson gets most of the pass work but RZ both run routes on play action).   Kinda need +1000 to justify the 0.5U play

LATE

NEW ADDED FRI AM:  Equinameous St-Brown +3500 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - Claypool's out of the doghouse, but the pass game is still in shambles, so ESB could still dress.   If he's inactive it voids, but if he's active, that price alone, well....

(Yes, I'm still holding on to that John Cougar Mellencamp Oscar win ticket)

NEW ADDED FRI AM:  Justyn Ross +800 FD / +8000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - Kadarius Toney and Richie James have both missed practice x 2 days now, but even if they return, until the Chiefs WR situation gains clarity, those odds deserve the half-stake play.  Ross doesn't play much, but again when he's out there in the RZ, they isolate him vs. a CB.  

NEW ADDED SAT AM:  Colby Parkinson +900 / +13000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - Will Dissly is doubtful, and while CAR has an excellent middle of field pass D vs. TE's, losing Shaq Thompson on MNF (and losing Jaycee Horn last week) creates more holes.   Having Parkinson down to an even split with Noah Fant makes this such a great value play, so going the full 0.8U/0.2U play.
 

MNF

Trey Palmer +600 / +8000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U - clear 3rd WR behind Evans / Godwin.   He's small, but they've already gone his way 1x in the RZ, and he scored to boot.   At that number, and with the Philly secondary really hurting, I have to play the prop at least for half-stake.

So that's a pretty full card with 11 players for 9U for Sunday (Palmer is a MNF play). 

OK so that's 38U  in plays out  BOL!

 

 

 

WEEK 3 to TNF

ATS/ML - 2-4-1, -2U total

PLAYER PROPS - 14-14, -0.2U

LONGSHOT TD - 6-24, +22.1U (Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000)

TOTAL - +19.9U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3 TNF: +2.6U, 101U stake so far)

Edited September 24, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

weird double post ignore lol

Edited September 21, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 9/19/2023 at 12:46 PM, Broncofan said:

TNF Week 3 

LONGSHOT TD (POSTED TUES AM)

1.  Isaiah Hodgins +600 / +8000 (immediately down to +6000 2 mins later) 0.4U / 0.1U DK - gets a lot of RZ snaps and as you all saw Jones trusts him.  

2.   Parris Campbell +600 / +7500 0.4U / 0.1U DK.     Campbell also has had 2 RZ targets and plays almost all the RZ snaps. 

3.  Lawrence Cager +3000 / +25000 2+ 0.25U / 0.05U - DK didn’t post a 2-TD prop which is probably for the best lol.  EDIT:  I took 0.4U / 0.1U but I can't really in good conscience recommend it.  I'll count the 0.5U in my YTD totals, but I'm posting what I think is a more responsible play lol, as Cager will be active either way, and it's nowhere near as likely as Hodgins/Campbell (which are also still unlikely, but the payoff is handsome for the prob IMO).

4.  Ronnie Bell +2000 / +15000 2+ Bodog/Bovada 0.25U / 0.05U Bodog/Bovada (now +850 -to +1000 range most books) - this line is going to drop quickly.   News that Brandon Aiyuk has an AC sprain, so short week, he may sit.  Be careful, because like Cager, he'll be active no matter if Aiyuk plays or sits. 

5. Ray-Ray Mcleod +1100 / +10000 2+ DK 0.3U / 0.1U - the other guy, and I trust @N4L's knowledge of his team.    Just a sprinkle to enjoy the game on both sides lol.

Hodgins is +390 on FD and Campbell is +470 and Cager +1400 so had to take stabs.  Cager is a gamble on Waller’s thigh and short week he looked gimpy at end of game.

Both Campbell & Hodgins get consistent targets and both get RZ trust (Campbell 3 RZ / Hodgins 2 RZ targets as the only WR RZ targets this year).  Hodgins showed similar usage 2H after being named starter while Campbell has the valuable slot spot so at +600 worth the 0.4U play.  The fear that NYG may not even get to the RZ is real but also why we’re getting such inflated odds.  

No yardage props out but honestly don’t know I’ll take many.   That's 2U in total risk, seems like enough lol.    It’s such a scary game to cap lol.

 

BOL! 

The line on Jones is now 41.5, so I'm going to pass on that (excellent call though guys).

I'm going to play a hunch and go with Parris Campbell O26.5 rec yds 1.4U & 50+ rec yds +320 0.6U on FD.    Campbell plays the slot, and that's the best matchup (along with boundary corner - and with Saquon out, there's a chance he plays RB on 3rd and short and gets extra mismatch work that way (he was a RB in college, and when Saquon was holding out, the G-men actually used him as a RB in TC on passing downs).    It's one of the reasons I took the +600 TD prop as well, as I think he'll stay on the field even when they want to bring the rookie Hyatt in.

That keeps things at a 4U stake in total, but gives me something to root for when both teams have the ball.  BOL!

Edited September 21, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

BTW 3 games potentially affected by weather.   In theory hurts Rhamondre Rec yds prop although short passes would likely be favored over downfield plays.   
 

 

Edited September 21, 2023 by Broncofan

[stl4life07]

12 hours ago, N4L said:

TNF - One thing to note is that it is super smoky here from wildfires very far north. I haven't gone outside or opened my windows in 2 days. Not good. I am not sure how this will affect the game but there is potential for it to slow things down a bit. There is a chance it will clear up if the wind shifts, but as of right now that does not look promising. 

SF team total over 27.5 - the giants defense has not played well. The niners offense is a buzz saw. They scored 20 points in the first quarter against the steelers and scored 30 last week after leaving a decent amount of points on the field. Large spread means the value isnt fantastic here, but I think this is a feasible number considering the cardinals scored 28 last week in the first 3 quarters. Most importantly, Kyle seems to genuinely trust Purdy, and it has made him significantly more aggressive with his play calling. They need 4 TDs and I think Kyle will look to be aggressive early to try and put the game out of reach. If there was a way to bet their first half team total, I would. 

Deebo over 55 rec yards, all the way up to 105 - He was more heavily featured last week after Aiyuk got banged up. He is yet to really break a big play. I think this is the week. With aiyuk banged up, cmc getting absurd usage a few days ago, with Kittle playing through a groin injury, I think Deebo will be the focal point of the offense. He is the type of player that keeps knocking on the door and eventually breaks it down. He could easily get 12 targets this week. I love this one. 

Cmc over 83 rush yards - 10 point home favorite. RB who gets nearly 100% of the touches and has the ability to break big runs. It just makes sense and I love betting the over on the rushing total of heavy favorites. 

Daniel Jones over 41 rush yards - niners have struggled with QBs rushing in the past. The pass rush is super aggressive and the LBs are used to cover the deep part of the field. The niners will have the lead so I think the giants will drop back to pass a lot and that will give him opportunities to scramble

49ers to score on their first drive, yes +111 - They have one of the most efficient offenses in the league and they have scored TDs on their first drive in both games this year. Purdy seems to come ready to play and does not need time to "settle in". That is actually one of the things I like most about him, he comes ready to play with a laser focus. 

 

I did a correlated parlay of the niners ML, niners over 27.5 team total, and the cmc rushing yards over at +200. I also did one with Elijah mitchell over 31 rush yards, niners ML, niners over 27.5 team total for +250 or something like that. I risked 25% on the Elijah Mitchell one. A lot of smart niners fans that I trust seem to think he should get some (10+) carries this week. I remain skeptical but the reasoning is sound, so we will make that bet. I dont think he gets a lot of carries if the niners 

I’m parlaying Niners ML, team total  over 27.5, CMC over 64.5yds rushing, Deebo 45yds receiving, and CMC anytime TD bc he has scored in 11 straight games.

Edited September 21, 2023 by stl4life07

[N4L]

31 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

CMC over 64.5yds rushing

Damn, where did you get this line?