Are You Comfortable with the RB Position?

[MacReady]

I don't know what you're arguing, but if you're arguing what I think you're arguing, it's a really bad argument. 

Julio Jones has 40 touchdowns in his career (since 2011)

Jordy Nelson has 57 touchdowns since 2011.  And he missed a year. 

So what are you trying to say?  Are you agreeing with me or disagreeing with me?  Because if you're disagreeing with me, you're doing a really bad job. 

[Joyride15]

Ty's year once he became full-time running back. I'm not sure what his capacity is to increase his snap counts further this coming year, but if we can get him where he's getting 15 touches a game (see weeks 14 through the end of the year, throwing out ATL because we we're down big the whole game), he would be a real asset to the team. In that stretch he was commanding 78% of the team's RB snaps. I think he will get between 75-80% of the snaps this year.

The question is will Williams take away some of the early down work, or will Jones take away some of the third down work?

Week	Off Snaps	total rb sn	% team	Ru att	Tar	Ru + tar
6 (DAL)	35	66	53.03%	3	12	15
7 (CHI)	60	71	84.51%	16	3	19
8 (@ATL)	OUT
9 (IND)	31	43	72.09%	7	3	10
10 (@TEN)	22	77	28.57%	3	2	5
11 (@ WAS)	29	62	46.77%	4	4	8
12 (@PHI)	16	72	22.22%	1	2	3
13 (HOU)	29	47	61.70%	6	3	9
14 (SEA)	30	54	55.56%	9	4	13
15 (@CHI)	51	56	91.07%	16	3	19
16 (MIN)	37	51	72.55%	9	5	14
17 (DET)	35	44	79.55%	8	5	13
18 (NYG)	41	55	74.55%	11	4	15
19 (@DAL)	52	56	92.86%	11	7	18
20 (@ATL)	23	38	60.53%	3	3	6
avg	35.07	56.57	61.99%	7.64	4.29	11.93

  

[Norm]

On 7/27/2017 at 11:19 AM, squire12 said:

I will say I do not have any data to support my opinion of the hurry-up being less effective. 

 

The idea that AR and MM like to deploy it does not in any way support its effectiveness.  They also seem to like the 1 yard out pattern to Richard Rodgers....use it, like it, but not overly effective.

Directed at Shane mostly actually. But it seems like being very versatile and multiple is the new plan on O and D. I'm hoping that doesn't let me down.

[Norm]

32 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

I don't know what you're arguing, but if you're arguing what I think you're arguing, it's a really bad argument. 

Julio Jones has 40 touchdowns in his career (since 2011)

Jordy Nelson has 57 touchdowns since 2011.  And he missed a year. 

So what are you trying to say?  Are you agreeing with me or disagreeing with me?  Because if you're disagreeing with me, you're doing a really bad job. 

He's agreeing you knob lol

 

He's giving you ammo to support it.

[Shanedorf]

31 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

  Are you agreeing with me or disagreeing with me?  Because if you're disagreeing with me, you're doing a really bad job. 

I'm always laughing at the concept of spending a top pick on a WR.  I was merely giving you some additional ammo.

 

[MacReady]

I didn't have the time to focus when it comes to receivers in round one.  It's an idea that makes me madder than the Colt's fake punt formation against the Patriots.

[Shanedorf]

12 minutes ago, NormSizedMidget said:

Directed at Shane mostly actually. But it seems like being very versatile and multiple is the new plan on O and D. I'm hoping that doesn't let me down.

makes sense and I'm interested to see if all the multiplicity is by down or by series for the offense.... and its probably gonna be both

Also noted: Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore did some media rounds last week and here’s one nugget that stood out to me from an interview. Asked what has been the most eye-opening thing to him about the Patriots, Gilmore talked about the “super-fast” pace in which the team practices defense. One example of this that showed up in spring practices: The no-huddle was a significant part of the agenda, as the coaching staff harped on players to substitute correctly and be on their toes mentally. When the defense struggled one day, unable to get the right personnel on the field quickly enough, they were sent on “penalty” laps.

[squire12]

Is it really a fair comparison to use the 4th through 9th year of a WR career vs the 1st through 6th year of a WR career to assess TD's

 

Julio has 40 TD's in his first 6 seasons

Nelson had 36 in his first 6 seasons.

Not going to even get into the quality of the QB that each has had over that time.

[squire12]

On 7/27/2017 at 1:52 PM, Shanedorf said:

Here's some data:

The Packers offense was ranked # 3, 10, 7 in efficiency by Football Outsiders over the last 3 seasons. The Packers offense ran the hurry- up offense at a 49% rate in 2014, (the only year I could find data for in a quick search). Those data points offer some insight. I'd be interested to read about how ineffective the hurry- up offense is and why the stubborn HC and QB1 continue to run it half the time, despite it being less effective.

Also noted: Richard Rodgers delivered 9 yards per reception in 2016 per profootball reference.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RodgRi00.htm

I yield the floor to you , honorable Senator Squire ....

Not exactly sure what the data is stating.  I agree that the GB offense is overall very good to great as noted in the #3, 10 and 7 rankings.  The 49% rate in 2014....is that how often they ran no huddle or how efficient it was by some metric.   

How does that 49% compare to other teams?  Is there a statistic on the point per drive when using the hurry-up vs points per drive when not?

[Cakeshoppe]

we can embed tables into posts now? I'm genuinely excited about this

[ThatJerkDave]

I'll be the naysayer.  Compared to this time last year, absolutely not.  We had the slimmed down Eddie Lacy, and James Starks off his best pro season yet.

This season we have a converted WR that has had trouble staying healthy because of a possible genetic condition and three rookies.

 

We don't even have a guy named Alstevis this season.

[CWood21]

15 hours ago, Cakeshoppe said:

we can embed tables into posts now? I'm genuinely excited about this

There's a TON of new features.  It's a breath of fresh air compared to the old FF.

[CheeseheadinMA]

On 7/28/2017 at 10:08 PM, DavidatMIZZOU said:

I'll be the naysayer.  Compared to this time last year, absolutely not.  We had the slimmed down Eddie Lacy, and James Starks off his best pro season yet.

This season we have a converted WR that has had trouble staying healthy because of a possible genetic condition and three rookies.

 

We don't even have a guy named Alstevis this season.

I'll be bold and say that I really don't think the sickle cell trait is going to affect Ty Montgomery at all this year. We don't have any high altitude or what we would expect to be a particularly high temp game on the schedule in the regular season. Last year, Ty knew that he had SCT, but had never experienced symptoms from it before and so presumably didn't know what they would feel like, or had just played through them in the past. Could be that he's always been enough of a "natural athlete" that he never hit his limit. The Chicago game prior to the missed Atlanta game was the first of the year without Lacy. Monty had 10 catches for 66 yards, and 9 carries for 60, he played and ran hard. It was his first real test as a starting RB.

You can bet that his sickle cell trait was a focus during offseason training. Most of the people who have died from this have done so when they pushed beyond their limit, or were working harder than what they had trained for previously. I have complete faith in the GB medical staff to manage Ty well, and in Ty to know his limits to where he can be used effectively and not miss time. I do believe that one of the other RB's will likely take ~30% of the load, but I think Ty will be the main back. I think he'll do it well, especially with a full offseason to prepare his body. I would guess they may even manage him with supplemental O2 on the sidelines. I'm definitely trying to find some literature on the topic within the physical therapy and medical literature to see if there is any real reason for concern considering the high quality training and medical treatment available to this level of athlete..

[ThatJerkDave]

Other teams are also more prepared for Ty Montgomery in the backfield.  

 

I hope they don't destroy his WR traits.  A single back formation with Monty could be changed at the line to bring back the 5 wide.

[MacReady]

Still never understand why people worry about the running back and wide receiver and tight end positions as much as they do.  Heading into a season, this is the best those three position groups have looked since 2011.  And the way some people look at our running backs it's almost like we've had a 14,000 career rushing yard running back in the entire history of the Packers.  We haven't even had a 9,000 career rushing yard running back in our history. 

If you go by this century alone, our QB is fourth in rushing yardage for the Packers.

If you go by the time Aaron took over as starter, he's third.  Yet we've won a Super Bowl, we've been to the Championship game two other times, and we've done it while frequently being worse off at RB than we are now. 

We are better off at running back right now than we were entering 2011, 2012, 2015 and last year considering the question marks with Eddie. 

Who cares if Ty Montgomery isn't available for 20 attempts a game?  We've got a fourth round rookie and two later round rookies to fight for rushing attempts when he's out.  We've also got Aaron Ripkowski, who averages 4.4 yards per rush. 

And then we've kinda got the world's greatest quarterback creating boxes a little lighter than what's typical, too.