Mazrimiv Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I would bet a lot of people who submitted fantasy lineups for the playoffs had either Brees or Jackson at QB. Doh! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I wonder what kind of odds you could have gotten a month ago betting that neither NE or BAL would make the AFCC game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, Mazrimiv said: I wonder what kind of odds you could have gotten a month ago betting that neither NE or BAL would make the AFCC game? Interesting stories coming out how the Houses cleaned up with TN's beating BALT. All the heavy money was on BALT - and it lost *big* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Golfman said: First part in bold tells me you've never played any sport at a level higher than junior varsity. Well, I actually have competed in sports at the varsity level and officiated at the varsity + level. Me not believing in momentum (or, at the very least, the importance you're giving it) is not indicative of that. I have seen moments that support momentum and moments don't. But you don't prove anything's existence, or lack thereof, with just anecdotal evidence. Hell, the examples I listed should all be crippling momentum shifting moments for the other team, until they weren't. Same with the research that shows how little effect momentum shifting moments should/can have. That's of course assuming you elected to read the article or think of the examples and not just zero in on the single bold statement. As I said prior, I do think there is a psychological effect that takes effect, especially getting tilted if you're on the losing side of it. But maybe that has more to do with overall mental fortitude and avoiding tilt than it does the anomalous concept of momentum. 2 hours ago, Golfman said: The second part in bold, I concur, the fist poor choice they made was going for it down 7 in the first half on their half of the field. That and Tennessee immediately capitalizing on it turned the MOMENTUM completely against the Ravens and they never recovered. Life, like sports isn't played on a computer screen with a bunch of data spit out telling us our every move. Well, the Ravens defense actually held the remainder of the first half after the blown coverage/biting on play action since it was only a one score game and the offense even had a big momentum play to go into halftime with one of Jackson's patented yolo throws. Momentum isn't the reason a defense bites on a play action or fails to tackle a running back on 3rd and 1. Plus, if you were looking beyond momentum, you could see the cracks of an upset that were there. The fact that the Ravens had been essentially off since 12/22. That they dominated lesser teams but played it tight vs. most of the playoff teams in the back half of the season. The fact that the Titans matched up very well with the Ravens few weaknesses (specifically their run defense). Obviously life isn't just stats. But that doesn't mean, especially in a game, that you shouldn't look for the edge and try to capitalize on it every time. Edited January 12, 2020 by Striker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 hours ago, Mazrimiv said: Someone should have explained to that GB team playing the 2014 NFCC in SEA how momentum isn't a thing. The Packers/Seahawks game would be a fascinating momentum study considering how the Packers offense (and eventually the defense) did the wrong thing every time in fear of protecting momentum/playing it safe and the Seahawks defense was never phased and just played through every Packer attempt at seizing momentum. It's actually good you brought that up, since the Packers/Seahawks in 2007 essentially ignored the momentum that Seattle should have had after Ryan grant fumbled twice in 2 minutes and blew Seattle out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannondale Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I ate something that didn't agree with me. My stomach was in tatters. So I watched some Titans defensive highlights and then thought of Lancaster, Lowry and Martinez. I immediately barfed. Problem solved 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 51 minutes ago, Striker said: Well, I actually have competed in sports at the varsity level and officiated at the varsity + level. Me not believing in momentum (or, at the very least, the importance you're giving it) is not indicative of that. I have seen moments that support momentum and moments don't. But you don't prove anything's existence, or lack thereof, with just anecdotal evidence. Hell, the examples I listed should all be crippling momentum shifting moments for the other team, until they weren't. Same with the research that shows how little effect momentum shifting moments should/can have. That's of course assuming you elected to read the article or think of the examples and not just zero in on the single bold statement. As I said prior, I do think there is a psychological effect that takes effect, especially getting tilted if you're on the losing side of it. But maybe that has more to do with overall mental fortitude and avoiding tilt than it does the anomalous concept of momentum. Well, the Ravens defense actually held the remainder of the first half after the blown coverage/biting on play action since it was only a one score game and the offense even had a big momentum play to go into halftime with one of Jackson's patented yolo throws. Momentum isn't the reason a defense bites on a play action or fails to tackle a running back on 3rd and 1. Plus, if you were looking beyond momentum, you could see the cracks of an upset that were there. The fact that the Ravens had been essentially off since 12/22. That they dominated lesser teams but played it tight vs. most of the playoff teams in the back half of the season. The fact that the Titans matched up very well with the Ravens few weaknesses (specifically their run defense). Obviously life isn't just stats. But that doesn't mean, especially in a game, that you shouldn't look for the edge and try to capitalize on it every time. If the stats say you convert 60% of the time on 4th and 1 you realize you fail 40% of the time in theory, correct? Common sense needs to play a part of it otherwise you lose momentum, and it is real. Forth and one from your territory when you haven't exactly owned the other defense might be a good time to look harder at the 40% number and punt and play defense. Those two failed 4th and 1 calls lost the game for them! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, Golfman said: If the stats say you convert 60% of the time on 4th and 1 you realize you fail 40% of the time in theory, correct? Common sense needs to play a part of it otherwise you lose momentum, and it is real. Forth and one from your territory when you haven't exactly owned the other defense might be a good time to look harder at the 40% number and punt and play defense. Those two failed 4th and 1 calls lost the game for them! And it was still absolutely the right call to go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 21 minutes ago, Golfman said: If the stats say you convert 60% of the time on 4th and 1 you realize you fail 40% of the time in theory, correct? Common sense needs to play a part of it otherwise you lose momentum, and it is real. Forth and one from your territory when you haven't exactly owned the other defense might be a good time to look harder at the 40% number and punt and play defense. Those two failed 4th and 1 calls lost the game for them! If it was 3rd and short the play prior, Baltimore not converting on the 3rd down meant that Tennessee had the momentum.  Not going for it would increase the momentum Tennessee had. Going for it was an attempt to regain the momentum. This this you are calling momentum is only as good or recent as the previous play. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coachbuns Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: And it was still absolutely the right call to go. Maybe so, right or wrong, I'm a results oriented guy. Even though it may have been the right call ... twice ... they are home watching. Everybody crowned them Super Bowl champs for this season with best record, best qb, best defense, etc. It may have been the right call twice - it failed twice with nothing but a huge upset loss. I don't personally care either way - Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, coachbuns said: Maybe so, right or wrong, I'm a results oriented guy. Even though it may have been the right call ... twice ... they are home watching. Everybody crowned them Super Bowl champs for this season with best record, best qb, best defense, etc. It may have been the right call twice - it failed twice with nothing but a huge upset loss. I don't personally care either way - It's very easy to be a results oriented guy with the benefit of hindsight. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 40 minutes ago, Golfman said: If the stats say you convert 60% of the time on 4th and 1 you realize you fail 40% of the time in theory, correct? Common sense needs to play a part of it otherwise you lose momentum, and it is real. Forth and one from your territory when you haven't exactly owned the other defense might be a good time to look harder at the 40% number and punt and play defense. Those two failed 4th and 1 calls lost the game for them! If the stats say you convert 60 percent of the time you ABSOLUTELY go for it. Common sense says you don't play scared. What momentum did BAL have? With the first one they gained 20 yards after giving up a TD after a Jackson pick and were going to punt. With the second one they would have still been down 2 scores and then Henry rumbled for 66 yards on 3rd and 1 after starting with worse field position than a field goal would have allowed. The poor coverage and poor tackling wasn't because the Baltimore defense was suddenly demoralized due to a loss of momentum. Let's not diminish how effective the Titans gameplan was vs. the Ravens. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cakeshoppe Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Golfman said: If the stats say you convert 60% of the time on 4th and 1 you realize you fail 40% of the time in theory, correct? Common sense needs to play a part of it otherwise you lose momentum, and it is real. Forth and one from your territory when you haven't exactly owned the other defense might be a good time to look harder at the 40% number and punt and play defense. Those two failed 4th and 1 calls lost the game for them! If I told you I was going to roll a 6-sided die and you could bet that it was either going to end up [1,2] or [3,4,5,6], would you ever bet on [1,2]? If you bet on [3,4,5,6], and it came up as a 2, would you take that to mean the analytics were wrong and that the right choice would have been to go with your gut rather than playing the odds as "analytics" predicted? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 22 minutes ago, Cakeshoppe said: If I told you I was going to roll a 6-sided die and you could bet that it was either going to end up [1,2] or [3,4,5,6], would you ever bet on [1,2]? If you bet on [3,4,5,6], and it came up as a 2, would you take that to mean the analytics were wrong and that the right choice would have been to go with your gut rather than playing the odds as "analytics" predicted? The reason people would bet on 1,2 is because they get better odds. When you go for it in negative territory, a '1 or a 2' comes up and you likely cash with a greater payout. Which happened last night. See, it's not an equivalent, what you are proposing.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannondale Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 (edited) It doesn't matter if you throw a 100 sided dice. From the Titans perspective, every side of that dice said Jackson. They had the horses to capitalize on not needing to see the roll. Same thing applies when the Packers go empty shotgun on 3rd or 4th and 2. Drives me insane. Edited January 12, 2020 by cannondale Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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