Leader Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Sasquatch said: Question: when considering the "odds", which is more 'likely': 1. beating a team the second time you play them where you lost the first game in that same season Or, 2. beating a team three times in the same season I understand there's a lot of criteria that has to be considered when running the math for the "odds", home versus away, matchups, etc. I'm just curious if statistically speaking, the odds favor one scenario over the other, regardless of what our heart or gut says? Yes. The stats say: "Play Minnesota again" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sasquatch Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Leader said: Yes. The stats say: "Play Minnesota again" Your heart and gut stat maybe. And the "beat the same team three times in one season" might very well be the more statistically probable of the two options. I'm just curious if there's a way to get to the bottom this question relative to the odds. Which is more likely to happen? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBURGE Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I want San Fran. Moire iconic matchup to me, we got beat down by them earlier in the year, and worst case I would be ok with them in the Superbowl. Hard to root against the game happening in Lambeau, but I am at peace with that 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Sasquatch said: Your heart and gut stat maybe. And the "beat the same team three times in one season" might very well be the more statistically probable of the two options. I'm just curious if there's a way to get to the bottom this question relative to the odds. Which is more likely to happen? We're gonna beat MN for the third time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sasquatch Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, JBURGE said: I want San Fran. Moire iconic matchup to me, we got beat down by them earlier in the year, and worst case I would be ok with them in the Superbowl. Hard to root against the game happening in Lambeau, but I am at peace with that I'm with you for basically the same reasons. And honestly, God forbid the Vikings win the SB having gone through Lambeau (however unlikely that is). I'd have to quit all social media for an entire year to escape that he11. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Fussnputz Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 55 minutes ago, Sasquatch said: Your heart and gut stat maybe. And the "beat the same team three times in one season" might very well be the more statistically probable of the two options. I'm just curious if there's a way to get to the bottom this question relative to the odds. Which is more likely to happen? I have a friend who is a mathematician. He says the odds of a weaker team beating a stronger team once are greater than a weaker team beating a stronger team 2 out of three times, or 4 out of 7. Think of it this way. It takes a lucky break for a weaker team to beat a stronger team. What are the chances of the weaker team getting a lucky break twice in a series, or 4 times? That's why baseball's 4 out of 7 world series is a fairer way to decide the best team than the NFL's one game. OTOH the NFL system does give the weaker team a better chance. Maybe that makes it more interesting from a fan's perspective? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sasquatch Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Mr. Fussnputz said: I have a friend who is a mathematician. He says the odds of a weaker team beating a stronger team once are greater than a weaker team beating a stronger team 2 out of three times, or 4 out of 7. Think of it this way. It takes a lucky break for a weaker team to beat a stronger team. What are the chances of the weaker team getting a lucky break twice in a series, or 4 times? That's why baseball's 4 out of 7 world series is a fairer way to decide the best team than the NFL's one game. OTOH the NFL system does give the weaker team a better chance. Maybe that makes it more interesting from a fan's perspective? Right - in other words, eventually the weaker team will get lucky, if given enough chances. Is three chances enough for the Vikings to get lucky? According to the odds, it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cakeshoppe Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 If you set up a series wit three games, there’s a significantly lower chance of the better team sweeping that series than of winning a single game outright, but if they sweep those first two games than when it comes down to the last game, the outcome of the other two games wouldn’t impact the outcome of the third. Think of it like tossing a coin three times. You may have only a 1/8 chance of getting heads three times in a row, but once you’ve already gotten heads on the first two, you still have 50% odds of getting heads on the last flip. The improbability doesn’t carry along. Of course football games aren’t coin flips what matters is how well you learned and implemented changes based on the first two matchups. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sasquatch Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, Cakeshoppe said: If you set up a series wit three games, there’s a significantly lower chance of the better team sweeping that series than of winning a single game outright, but if they sweep those first two games than when it comes down to the last game, the outcome of the other two games wouldn’t impact the outcome of the third. Think of it like tossing a coin three times. You may have only a 1/8 chance of getting heads three times in a row, but once you’ve already gotten heads on the first two, you still have 50% odds of getting heads on the last flip. The improbability doesn’t carry along. Of course football games aren’t coin flips what matters is how well you learned and implemented changes based on the first two matchups. Makes total sense. So statistically speaking, what are the odds for the second matchup with San Fran? Is there a slight favorability one direction or the other based upon the outcome of the first matchup? More curious what the odds say, versus emotions. And I realize none of this odds stuff really means chit, I'm just more curious than anything. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dubz41 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 34 minutes ago, Sasquatch said: Right - in other words, eventually the weaker team will get lucky, if given enough chances. Is three chances enough for the Vikings to get lucky? According to the odds, it is. I don't have the odds in front of me, but they were discussing it on the radio the other day. The 'It's hard to beat a team three times in a season' argument. Comes out that the third game is usually won at a 64% clip by the team that has already won the first two games. That was concerning the situation historically in the NFL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 For the 2017 season playoffs ESPN ran an article about teams playing 3 times since the 1970 merger. There had been 20 occurrences, with the team that won the first two winning the third 13 times. (13/20). The Saints proceeded to make it 14/21 attempts after beating the Panthers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 Bring on the Vikings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 24 minutes ago, Leader said: Bring on the Vikings. Now now Leader, we, as fans, can't get caught looking ahead. Trap game! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Fussnputz Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Sasquatch said: Right - in other words, eventually the weaker team will get lucky, if given enough chances. Is three chances enough for the Vikings to get lucky? According to the odds, it is. No, eventually the weaker team's luck will run out. No more lucky breaks. They will just lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sasquatch Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Mr. Fussnputz said: No, eventually the weaker team's luck will run out. No more lucky breaks. They will just lose. Oh, I thought the weaker team would eventually get enough lucky breaks to win. I'm confused, but that's not uncommon, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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