N4L Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 10 hours ago, kramxel said: Honesty this just feels like a smokescreen and it's bizarre they are announcing it when there's still 1 game left to play. The probowl is this weekend so they had to announce it now lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kramxel Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, N4L said: The probowl is this weekend so they had to announce it now lol Don't get me started on the scheduling of that "game". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolsurebro Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 It's gimmicky and I hate it. No. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom cody Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Anything to make the Pro Bowl more exciting I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nozizaki Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 14 hours ago, kramxel said: I don't have the stats to back it up, but I feel that 4th and 15 is bellow 10 percent conversion rate. The sample size is probably small, but still... The problem I have with it is that, it's apparently a low conversion play, teams will be trying to fish for penalties like there's no tomorrow. Will a holding penalty result in a 1st down like a normal play? The biggest concern with rules and officiating is PI and the way they weren't reviewing it, and so far, I've seen no one talking about changes to it. Onsides are broken and need fixing, but there are more important things to discuss. Honesty this just feels like a smokescreen and it's bizarre they are announcing it when there's still 1 game left to play. Per pro football reference, from 1994 to 2019 teams went for it on 4th and 15 177 times. Of those plays, 39 gained a first down. So, historically, the odds of converting are about 22.0%. That's a pretty decent sample size. By contrast, in that same time frame, teams attempted 231 onside kicks outside of the 4th quarter and recovered 81 of those successfully. So, teams recover approximately 35% of their "surprise onside kick attempts. I've thrown out the 4th quarter, because in the 4th quarter teams' onside kick recoveries are far less likely. Even if you total them both, teams recover onside kicks about 10.7% of the time (with a sample size of 1538 plays). And keep in mind that includes data from the past few years where successfully recovering an onside kick has become less likely. To me this is clearly a better alternative to the kickoff because it is safer alternative to the kickoff, since each team lines up from scrimmage, and also more effective at giving trailing teams an ability to compete and keep games interesting. A fine compromise would be what @Broncofan mentioned of limiting the amount of yards a team can gain on the 4th down try, but ultimately I think the idea will need tweaking either way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammymvpknight Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 NFL must be nervous that Deonte Harris is so damned good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renndawg37 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 hours ago, sammymvpknight said: NFL must be nervous that Deonte Harris is so damned good He's no Marc Mariani, that's for sure 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rivers Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 2020-01-22 at 9:47 AM, tom cody said: Anything to make the Pro Bowl more exciting I guess. after the game a few years ago where the players were joking around, I was hoping the nfl would abolish the pro bowl. If they want to try new ideas, preseason could work for that. what are they trying to accomplish on the onside kick anyways? We could discuss ideas for that I suppose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, 3rivers said: after the game a few years ago where the players were joking around, I was hoping the nfl would abolish the pro bowl. If they want to try new ideas, preseason could work for that. what are they trying to accomplish on the onside kick anyways? We could discuss ideas for that I suppose I suspect they ID’d the Pro Bowl since neither side really wants to even try an onside kick given the rosters in question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanrick Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Ironically, I don't ever recall seeing a player injured during an onside kick. I do recall lots of injuries on normal kickoffs, especially before the recent rules changes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 hours ago, 3rivers said: after the game a few years ago where the players were joking around, what does this mean? havent watched in years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rivers Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 3 hours ago, Malfatron said: what does this mean? havent watched in years there was the one pro bowl where the players joked around to the point where it was getting criticism from everyone. I think it's the 2016 pro bowl, but you'll get the idea from this clip 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PossibleCabbage Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 I think in general I would prefer a team gets a 4th and [whatever] from [whichever] yard line after scoring a touchdown. That way in most situations a team would elect to punt, but in situations of desperation they can go to it. This preserves the possibility of a return (and a punt is a much safer play than a kickoff), and allows for a "surprise conversion" attempt if, for example, your punter is Johnny Hekker. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
checkcola Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Anything that results in randomly changing the ball spot on the field of play is a stupid gimmick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nozizaki Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 18 hours ago, titanrick said: Ironically, I don't ever recall seeing a player injured during an onside kick. I do recall lots of injuries on normal kickoffs, especially before the recent rules changes. And that's the point. The kickoff is dangerous and stupid, but we lose the onside kick without the kickoff. So if the kicking team were instead given 4th down and 10+ at their own end of the field, most teams would then punt, which is inherently safer since both teams line up from scrimmage instead of getting a running start and just smacking into each other. They could always go for it, which as I detailed earlier can be easier than recovering an onside kick. It's also far less luck based and more football from scrimmage, which teams can scheme for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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