General off-season discussion/plan thread

[757-NINER]

14 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

There really shouldn't be a debate about keeping Thomas over Armstead: One is under contract, the other isn't. One would leave dead money on the books, the other would not. That being said, I would rather keep Armstead but if we could get decent picks for him....I'm all for tagging and trading. 

As another poster stated, Armstead is a luxury at this point. I could see a scenario where he stays but I just think we have too many guys due for big contracts, who have produced over a number of seasons to justify extending him off of one season of value. Personally, I'd rather tag and trade him than extending him. I probably think higher of our younger back-ups than most so I'd take the picks and roll with guys like Taylor, Givens and Street. 

[dan77733]

49ers will have around $45m in cap room for 2021and that would be before releasing for example LT Joe Staley who at 37 will cost over $10m in 2021 is just too much money. He played well but as he gets older, it's not like he's going to get better. I would always go younger over older and in regards to the DL, I would keep Armstead, Buckner and Thomas. If anything, in 2021 off-season I would trade Dee Ford. 30 years old. Not worth $16m a year at that point. Also after 2020, I wouldn't re-sign Sherman. Team will have plenty of cap room, be able to keep the players they should keep while still staying young and adding more young talent and depth through the draft. Also, if im trading Armstead, it requires a first round draft pick. I wouldn't just give him away.

Edited February 28, 2020 by dan77733

[Forge]

1 hour ago, 757-NINER said:

As another poster stated, Armstead is a luxury at this point. I could see a scenario where he stays but I just think we have too many guys due for big contracts, who have produced over a number of seasons to justify extending him off of one season of value. Personally, I'd rather tag and trade him than extending him. I probably think higher of our younger back-ups than most so I'd take the picks and roll with guys like Taylor, Givens and Street. 

The problem is that those back ups have shown nothing. Street in particular simply hasn't been good. Like, at all. Even in preseason. Givens was a PS guy for most of the year. Taylor I do like though. 

It's a big, big jump to think that we can just remove Armstead from the equation and the team would be equally as strong and those guys could just slide right in or that we wouldn't suffer.

That being said, we could get that even if we kept Armstead given that this is the first year he had ever done it. He's a risk. It's a risk to move away from him, a risk to lock him up long term. We are also going to lose Dee Ford soon. There's no way he sees more than a year or two more, and I'd lean toward the former. That's a lot of bleeding off the defensive line in two years. 

 

 

[Forge]

32 minutes ago, dan77733 said:

49ers will have around $45m in cap room for 2021and that would be before releasing for example LT Joe Staley who at 37 will cost over $10m in 2021 is just too much money. He played well but as he gets older, it's not like he's going to get better. I would always go younger over older and in regards to the DL, I would keep Armstead, Buckner and Thomas. If anything, in 2021 off-season I would trade Dee Ford. 30 years old. Not worth $16m a year at that point. Also after 2020, I wouldn't re-sign Sherman. Team will have plenty of cap room, be able to keep the players they should keep while still staying young and adding more young talent and depth through the draft. Also, if im trading Armstead, it requires a first round draft pick. I wouldn't just give him away.

It's really impossible to know what we will have in 2021 at this point because we have too many big money deals to give out and don't know how they will be structured. Kittle and Buck will probably have huge hits, I'm just not sure how they will be structured. If Armstead is re-signed, he will have a sizable hit. 

[P_locniners]

36 minutes ago, dan77733 said:

49ers will have around $45m in cap room for 2021and that would be before releasing for example LT Joe Staley who at 37 will cost over $10m in 2021 is just too much money. He played well but as he gets older, it's not like he's going to get better. I would always go younger over older and in regards to the DL, I would keep Armstead, Buckner and Thomas. If anything, in 2021 off-season I would trade Dee Ford. 30 years old. Not worth $16m a year at that point. Also after 2020, I wouldn't re-sign Sherman. Team will have plenty of cap room, be able to keep the players they should keep while still staying young and adding more young talent and depth through the draft. Also, if im trading Armstead, it requires a first round draft pick. I wouldn't just give him away.

I dont think any team is giving up a 1st rounder for Armstead at this point, I would fully expect a 2nd rounder and at worst an early 3rd

[757-NINER]

3 hours ago, Forge said:

The problem is that those back ups have shown nothing. Street in particular simply hasn't been good. Like, at all. Even in preseason. Givens was a PS guy for most of the year. Taylor I do like though. 

It's a big, big jump to think that we can just remove Armstead from the equation and the team would be equally as strong and those guys could just slide right in or that we wouldn't suffer.

That being said, we could get that even if we kept Armstead given that this is the first year he had ever done it. He's a risk. It's a risk to move away from him, a risk to lock him up long term. We are also going to lose Dee Ford soon. There's no way he sees more than a year or two more, and I'd lean toward the former. That's a lot of bleeding off the defensive line in two years. 

 

 

You have a valid point in regards to the back-ups. I just mentioned Street because we he's still developing but I really like what I've seen from Taylor and the little I did see of Givens last pre-season.

Ultimately though, my whole point in not re-signing Armstead was to take that $$ and find a 3rd DE to step-in for Ford because as you said, I don't see him here past 2021. Until we can draft a young apprentice to pair with Bosa, I think we need to find a capable vet back-up pass-rusher in free agency to step up when Ford inevitably gets hurt. I know alot of ppl here want to re-sign Blair. I just don't think Blair is enough. And I don't trust him to be fully healthy to start next year. 

I just believe the chance of Armstead replicating his production from last year is slim to none. So I rather gamble that a couple of young guys with a pretty good vet sprinkled in, can give us decent production next to DeFo.

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by 757-NINER

[P_locniners]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

The problem is that those back ups have shown nothing. Street in particular simply hasn't been good. Like, at all. Even in preseason. Givens was a PS guy for most of the year. Taylor I do like though. 

It's a big, big jump to think that we can just remove Armstead from the equation and the team would be equally as strong and those guys could just slide right in or that we wouldn't suffer.

That being said, we could get that even if we kept Armstead given that this is the first year he had ever done it. He's a risk. It's a risk to move away from him, a risk to lock him up long term. We are also going to lose Dee Ford soon. There's no way he sees more than a year or two more, and I'd lean toward the former. That's a lot of bleeding off the defensive line in two years. 

 

 

dont forget about D.J. Jones, I thought he stepped up last year. Between him, Solly, Taylor and Street(maybe Sheldon Day)...someone is gonna have to separate themselves early on.

As far as Ford goes, I think this next season is gonna play a huge role in his future with us.If he plays sparingly like he did last season, I can definitely see us moving on, but if (by some miracle) he stays healthy and can play 70-80% of snaps and has a good season, I see him staying on. Why he didnt have off-season surgery I DONT KNOW, sounds like it is an issue that will reoccur next season without drastic action this off-season

[J-ALL-DAY]

Different ball game in 2021. Roster size will increase as well but 2-3 players added tops.

Cap wise we will still be fine next year. 

[Justone2]

15 minutes ago, P_locniners said:

dont forget about D.J. Jones, I thought he stepped up last year. Between him, Solly, Taylor and Street(maybe Sheldon Day)...someone is gonna have to separate themselves early on.

As far as Ford goes, I think this next season is gonna play a huge role in his future with us.If he plays sparingly like he did last season, I can definitely see us moving on, but if (by some miracle) he stays healthy and can play 70-80% of snaps and has a good season, I see him staying on. Why he didnt have off-season surgery I DONT KNOW, sounds like it is an issue that will reoccur next season without drastic action this off-season

I don't think snap percentage has to be 70/80 for Ford to have a succesfull season. Its more about having him every game and more importantly him playing on all the passing downs. If he plays 50/60 but gets 15/20 sacks in those snaps i am plenty fine keeping him around. Ford is a great pass rusher but isn't a reliable run defender on the edge and if he doesn't play a single rushing down i am 100% fine with that.

Edited February 28, 2020 by Justone2

[Forge]

14 minutes ago, P_locniners said:

dont forget about D.J. Jones, I thought he stepped up last year. Between him, Solly, Taylor and Street(maybe Sheldon Day)...someone is gonna have to separate themselves early on.

As far as Ford goes, I think this next season is gonna play a huge role in his future with us.If he plays sparingly like he did last season, I can definitely see us moving on, but if (by some miracle) he stays healthy and can play 70-80% of snaps and has a good season, I see him staying on. Why he didnt have off-season surgery I DONT KNOW, sounds like it is an issue that will reoccur next season without drastic action this off-season

DJ Jones and Armstead aren't really in the same boat as they really both have different jobs. Jones has already separated himself from that pack as a starting nose tackle / 1 tech. What we would be missing with AA would be a 9, 3, 5, etc. 

[Melbourne 9er]

We gave Armstead the 5th year option because the coaches thought he was good enough. He then repays the coaches faith, plus more, and we talk about dumping him??? And the excuse that he is only good because he has good people around him!! How many of those are disappearing next year?? I would extend Armstead because not only is he getting sacks, he is also our best run defender. I would be looking at a 4 yr/$52-54m deal if we can get away with it.

Jimmie Ward is in exactly the same position with the same result. I'm looking at extending on a 3yr/20-22m deal. We need to keep the D together.

Let Sanders walk. Bye bye Goodwin, Coleman, Blair. Restructure McKinnon and Jimmy G.

Trade back for a 2nd and 3rd rounder. With the 2nd pick up Uche/Weaver so that we have a replacement when Ford gets injured/cut (next year)

[dan77733]

6 hours ago, Forge said:

It's really impossible to know what we will have in 2021 at this point because we have too many big money deals to give out and don't know how they will be structured. Kittle and Buck will probably have huge hits, I'm just not sure how they will be structured. If Armstead is re-signed, he will have a sizable hit. 

Agreed but I simply wouldn't let a young player who finally broke out leave and I wouldn't give him away because that makes no sense.

6 hours ago, P_locniners said:

I dont think any team is giving up a 1st rounder for Armstead at this point, I would fully expect a 2nd rounder and at worst an early 3rd

No way in hell im trading Armstead for a 2nd or 3rd. That's like giving him away for nothing.

Don't see the salary cap hitting $240m but even if it's $220m, the team will have plenty of cap room. Will never understand wanting to let go of young players. I would release/trade Dee Ford before letting Armstead/Buckner/Thomas leave. Will always go with youth over aging players.

[757-NINER]

1 hour ago, Melbourne 9er said:

We gave Armstead the 5th year option because the coaches thought he was good enough. He then repays the coaches faith, plus more, and we talk about dumping him??? And the excuse that he is only good because he has good people around him!! How many of those are disappearing next year?? I would extend Armstead because not only is he getting sacks, he is also our best run defender. I would be looking at a 4 yr/$52-54m deal if we can get away with it.

Jimmie Ward is in exactly the same position with the same result. I'm looking at extending on a 3yr/20-22m deal. We need to keep the D together.

Let Sanders walk. Bye bye Goodwin, Coleman, Blair. Restructure McKinnon and Jimmy G.

Trade back for a 2nd and 3rd rounder. With the 2nd pick up Uche/Weaver so that we have a replacement when Ford gets injured/cut (next year)

We could afford to give him the 5th year because we had a team and a defense still developing, with a good deal of cap space. And his option was only 9 million.

That was then and this is now. We are a legit SB contender. We have holes to fill while also trying to maximize our window. We have to plan for extensions for guys like Kittle, DeFo, and Warner. Everyone can't be paid. Last year's D-Line was one for the ages but its about the overall team. I can't see Armstead taking a discount to stay. And I don't see us spending big money to keep him. Not off of one year of production and health.

There's a chance they could tag him and keep him for a year. But it seems more feasible to tag and trade him. Its tricky because how much is his one year of production really worth in terms of a trade? And do we hold out for at least a 2nd rounder for him?? Not really sure how coveted he will be on the tag so its really a wait and see type of scenario.

Edited February 29, 2020 by 757-NINER

[dan77733]

3 hours ago, Melbourne 9er said:

We gave Armstead the 5th year option because the coaches thought he was good enough. He then repays the coaches faith, plus more, and we talk about dumping him??? And the excuse that he is only good because he has good people around him!! How many of those are disappearing next year?? I would extend Armstead because not only is he getting sacks, he is also our best run defender. I would be looking at a 4 yr/$52-54m deal if we can get away with it.

Jimmie Ward is in exactly the same position with the same result. I'm looking at extending on a 3yr/20-22m deal. We need to keep the D together.

Let Sanders walk. Bye bye Goodwin, Coleman, Blair. Restructure McKinnon and Jimmy G.

Trade back for a 2nd and 3rd rounder. With the 2nd pick up Uche/Weaver so that we have a replacement when Ford gets injured/cut (next year)

I agree with you in regards to Armstead but I would let Ward leave as an UFA. Way too injury prone and if others here have said that Moore has been range and cover ability, I would go with him as our starting FS.

No way should we let Sanders walk. Deebo is our future but Sanders is that veteran that receivers need plus he elevated the offense and Jimmy G once the team acquired him. Plus, it would be a waste of a 3rd rounder to just get a half a season out of him. I would give him a 2/3 year deal worth around $8m a year.

Would have already released Goodwin unless they have a trade in place for a late round draft pick. Would re-sign Blair if the price is reasonable. I would actually extend Coleman after thinking about it because he has no guaranteed money and it would lower his cap hit for 2020. If anything, I would buyout McKinnon's contract as he hasn't played in two years due to injury and his cap number is almost doubt that of Coleman plus he's a year older. If not, I would probably try to trade him if possible or just outright release him if he passes a physical. If he's not healthy, I reach an injury settlement with him and move on. Mostert/Coleman/Breida is great in my opinion. No reason to alter that.

I would trade Ford in a year from now. Too much money. Injury prone. And will be 30 in 2021. As for the Draft this year, if a team wants to move up from the top 10 in the second round and willing to give the 49ers their 2021 first rounder, they better take it.

As for Jimmy G, he stays right where he is contract wise. In no way, shape or form should the team alter his contract. It's extremely team friendly as they can release him at any time with cap hits of $4.2m (2020), $2.8m (2021) and $1.4m (2022). No way should the team even think about altering his contract as that would be a stupid decision in my opinion.

[Forge]

17 hours ago, Melbourne 9er said:

We gave Armstead the 5th year option because the coaches thought he was good enough. He then repays the coaches faith, plus more, and we talk about dumping him???

Vastly, vastly different scenarios. One is paying a guy 10 million with no long term commitment in a year where we have no cap issues or concerns. The other is about giving the guy 60 million guaranteed. 

The situation with Armstead is nuanced. If we could get him back at 9-10 million, I doubt that there would be anyone here that is opposed to it. That's simply not the case. We have a lot of good players who need big money deals and we are already tight against the cap. Decisions have to be made. The free agency graveyard is littered with horrific deals of guys signing big money deals after blowing up in their contract year. 

He's a risk. Doesn't mean that he's not one he should take, but it should be understandable if it's one that we feel uncomfortable moving forward with at an inflated cost. 

17 hours ago, Melbourne 9er said:

And the excuse that he is only good because he has good people around him!!

It's not necessarily a misguided notion. He broke out this yea and it happened to be a free agent year and a season in which we added Nick Bosa and Dee Ford. 

I'm not sure how much you know about hockey, but there is a classification of players that people refer to as line drivers. Now, not all good players are line drivers, so that's not a requirement. But what line drivers do is that they not only capitalize on the opportunities presented to them, but they also create them. Again, there's nothing wrong with not being a line driver, doesn't mean you're not a good player, but I sort of feel like this is the type of player AA is. He's not driving this defensive front. He is capitalizing on the opportunity afforded to him from it. I would view both Bosa and Ford as superior line drivers than AA, as they create opportunities for the other members on the line to capitalize from while also capitalizing on some themselves. 

AA has always been a very solid run defender, but the pass rush was new this year.  His pass rush win rate was okay. Against double teams, Bosa still had nearly a 22% win rate in pass rushing. AA? Nearly 16% (which is still very good, mind you...top 20 in the league). But he was also just outside the top 20 in overall pass rush win rate. We all know the impact Dee Ford had on the defense when he was on the field. Those stats were quoted a lot when we were prepping for his comeback. We have already seen what Buckner can do with a lack of talent around him last year. So is AA the straw the stirs the drink? I honestly don't think so. Doesn't mean hes not a good player... I think he is very good, and part of my problem is finding a replacement plan for him should we not be able to afford him, but I think it's important to look at it from all sides. 

17 hours ago, Melbourne 9er said:

I would be looking at a 4 yr/$52-54m deal if we can get away with it

This should be just his guaranteed money, to be honest. If his agent isn't asking for at Trey Flowers' deal, his agent needs to be fired. AA should be grabbing about 18 million per season, 55-60 million guaranteed. That's part of the problem.

17 hours ago, Melbourne 9er said:

Jimmie Ward is in exactly the same position with the same result. I'm looking at extending on a 3yr/20-22m deal. We need to keep the D together.

 

That's a pretty fair deal, especially if you're guaranteeing like 14 million of that (basically making it a 2 year deal), though I'd be curious if Ward took it. @y2lamanaki and I talked briefly about him on the podcast one episode...I said 2 years, 16. HE said 2 years 17. So we are in similar mindsets. I'm not going to push super hard for Ward, I'm content to let him find the market and see if there is anything better out there for him.