Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[fraziafraze07]

Without knowing how you compute them, hard to put stock in your numbers.  I don't say that to be critical at all.  It's just a black box right now. What's your methodology?

[mission27]

8 minutes ago, fraziafraze07 said:

Without knowing how you compute them, hard to put stock in your numbers.  I don't say that to be critical at all.  It's just a black box right now. What's your methodology?

We have a model

[fraziafraze07]

Just now, mission27 said:

We have a model

Ok...

That still doesn't explain your numbers.  Obviously, the inputs going into your model are in some way shape and form number of confirmed cases, number of deaths, etc.  But without explanation of the specific inputs and how the model weights them, how can we personally assign a level of confidence to the output values?

Again, I'm not being critical of your work.  I want to be informed and discerning, to intelligently evaluate the information being presented. 

[mission27]

23 minutes ago, fraziafraze07 said:

Ok...

That still doesn't explain your numbers.  Obviously, the inputs going into your model are in some way shape and form number of confirmed cases, number of deaths, etc.  But without explanation of the specific inputs and how the model weights them, how can we personally assign a level of confidence to the output values?

Again, I'm not being critical of your work.  I want to be informed and discerning, to intelligently evaluate the information being presented. 

We look at number of new cases reported over a period of time vs. number of active cases on a trailing basis

Then we make manual adjustments based on our perceptions of how smug various countries are

So its more or less a measure of spread

@TLO can explain more

[TLO]

7 minutes ago, mission27 said:

We look at number of new cases reported over a period of time vs. number of active cases on a trailing basis

Then we make manual adjustments based on our perceptions of how smug various countries are

So its more or less a measure of spread

@TLO can explain more

Mike Trout doesn’t need to know how to calculate WAR to identify season to season trends tbh

[dtait93]

2 hours ago, vikesfan89 said:

I've wondered that too. Even if the virus finishes them off they might have been dieing already but will get marked as a Corona virus death

Yeah my skeptical *** will post something if I run in to a reliable source lol

[pwny]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/coronavirus-death-toll-americans-are-almost-certainly-dying-of-covid-19-but-being-left-out-of-the-official-count/2020/04/05/71d67982-747e-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html

Quote

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention counts only deaths in which the presence of the coronavirus is confirmed in a laboratory test. “We know that it is an underestimation,” agency spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund said.

A widespread lack of access to testing in the early weeks of the U.S. outbreak means people with respiratory illnesses died without being counted, epidemiologists say. Even now, some people who die at home or in overburdened nursing homes are not being tested, according to funeral directors, medical examiners and nursing home representatives.

 

[dtait93]

34 minutes ago, pwny said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/coronavirus-death-toll-americans-are-almost-certainly-dying-of-covid-19-but-being-left-out-of-the-official-count/2020/04/05/71d67982-747e-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html

 

“The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention counts only deaths in which the presence of the coronavirus is confirmed in a laboratory test.”

This can still mean someone who dies from a cause unrelated to the coronavirus and is later tested positive for it is included in the death count. I’m not saying it’s true, just what I’ve heard...and that Dempsey story is kind of weird considering he had reportedly recovered 6 days ago while also reportedly dying from it today.

[pwny]

16 minutes ago, dtait93 said:

that Dempsey story is kind of weird considering he had reportedly recovered 6 days ago while also reportedly dying from it today.

The virus is a little weird in that about half of the people who die actually think they’re getting better/have gotten better and then a second wave hits and they then die from pneumonia or other respiratory complications. It’s not abnormal that some people would think they’re fully recovered only to have it come back and kill them.

And while, yes someone could be dying from something else and be recorded, there’s currently a lot of people dying of it and not being recorded at all. 

Edited April 6, 2020 by pwny

[N4L]

18 hours ago, Glen said:

20 hours ago, acowboys62 said:

Either you can see into the future or you are repeating the news?

I’m not sure what this is meant to imply.

But yes, I am repeating what scientists, doctors, and other experts are saying.

If you aren't just making it up as you go along is it really news?

[N4L]

18 hours ago, acowboys62 said:

I’m not listening to anyone who isn’t my wife, Its not hard to formulate ones own thoughts. Watching and sharing opinions/things I’ve noticed doesn’t mean I am listening. 

18 hours ago, acowboys62 said:

I’m not listening to anyone who isn’t my wife, Its not hard to formulate ones own thoughts

18 hours ago, acowboys62 said:

I’m not listening to anyone who isn’t my wife

18 hours ago, acowboys62 said:

Its not hard to formulate ones own thoughts

[aussie_eagle]

I'm pretty sure I had it a few weeks ago. I had a really sore throat and had half my throat cut off from breathing. Either I had it or I had something else I've never had before (and I get a cold only once a year or so and never had the flu). The GP refused to test me as I didn't meet the criteria for testing.

 

If I did have it then you will be fine if you have semi decent fitness. If you are unfit you might struggle as it will make it harder to breath. 

[VonKarman]

When comparing deaths between Spain and the US the most important factor is that the virus arrived earlier in Spain. The US will pass Spain in 4 days or so in deaths. It probably has little to do with hospital and more with other factors (apart from time). The US is a heavily delocalized country. 90% of the population of Spain can be in Madrid (the main contagious area) in less than 5 hours by car/train, and less than 1 hour by plane. Besides, the high amount of infected people is especially because of NY's intensive testing. However, the number of tests made in the US per million people is lower than Spain's.

[ramssuperbowl99]

We've reached the point of news desperation that we're now asking MoL for their methodology. Not the CDC. MoL.

[theJ]

30 minutes ago, VonKarman said:

When comparing deaths between Spain and the US the most important factor is that the virus arrived earlier in Spain. The US will pass Spain in 4 days or so in deaths. It probably has little to do with hospital and more with other factors (apart from time). The US is a heavily delocalized country. 90% of the population of Spain can be in Madrid (the main contagious area) in less than 5 hours by car/train, and less than 1 hour by plane. Besides, the high amount of infected people is especially because of NY's intensive testing. However, the number of tests made in the US per million people is lower than Spain's.

Not to mention the US has 7x the population of Spain.