VonKarman Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 I don't know if this was posted here: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VonKarman Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 BTW, I believe that new positives are not a very reliable data as they depende on the number of tests performed. Hospitalized people, as well as deaths are probably the most reliable pieces of data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, sdrawkcab321 said: Why? Golf is the only “sport” that shouldn’t have an issue continuing. It’s already socially distant. You don’t need a crowd. Golf and nascar could be dominating the sports world if they wanted to and it would have no health risks. What about production staff, catering staff, and operations crews among others? For the "athlete", golf is safe on its own. But then this also doesn't take into account everyone traveling to the location plus transportation and hotel staff. It just doesn't make sense at this time. Now if Tiger Woods were to golf on his own property, have a neighbor stream it using a drone, and Jim Nantz commentate from home then sure. Zero contact required and safe for all participants. Edited April 6, 2020 by kingseanjohn athlete needed quotes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 28 minutes ago, VonKarman said: BTW, I believe that new positives are not a very reliable data as they depende on the number of tests performed. Hospitalized people, as well as deaths are probably the most reliable pieces of data. Yes but if you look at trends within a country or state rather than absolute #s or #s per capita I'd argue its still an apples to apples between countries, regardless of who is testing more than others The only risk is if you have a country that is quickly ramping up there case numbers may look flat even if things are really getting better ... I'd argue looking at case #s is systematically conservative in this respect, but you can know that and adjust for that Deaths is a lagging indicator and also biased for its own reason (CFR will vary significantly from country to country and over time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 https://time.com/5816129/austria-rollback-lockdown/ LIS, Austria knocking on Tier 1 status MoLs proving very reliable and useful tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VonKarman Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 (edited) 11 minutes ago, mission27 said: Yes but if you look at trends within a country or state rather than absolute #s or #s per capita I'd argue its still an apples to apples between countries, regardless of who is testing more than others The only risk is if you have a country that is quickly ramping up there case numbers may look flat even if things are really getting better ... I'd argue looking at case #s is systematically conservative in this respect, but you can know that and adjust for that Deaths is a lagging indicator and also biased for its own reason (CFR will vary significantly from country to country and over time) It is apples to apples as long as the testing procedure is the same as you say. Here in Spain it's been that way until know (15,000 PCR tests per day aprox.). However, they are gonna start using faster tests this week, and at that point it will become apples to oranges. I don't know how it is with other countries though. Edited April 6, 2020 by VonKarman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, mission27 said: https://time.com/5816129/austria-rollback-lockdown/ LIS, Austria knocking on Tier 1 status MoLs proving very reliable and useful tbh Very interesting.. . Staged re-opening, so small shops can open in a week, larger stores and hairdressers in 3 weeks, not clear from this article when bars and restaurants open They'll require people to wear face masks or other coverings in crowded places (e.g. on the subway or in a store, but not necessarily if you're just walking around outside) Nothing in here yet on when borders would re-open but probably some point after May 1st dependent on when they get comfortable other countries have their **** under control Seems pretty sensible, good model for other countries, we'll see how it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 1 minute ago, VonKarman said: It is apples to apples as long as the testing procedure is the same as you say. Here in Spain it's been that way until know (15,000 PCR tests per day aprox.). However, they are gonna start using faster tests this week, and at that point it will become apples to oranges. I don't know how it is with other countries though. Agreed. In situations like that if you see the testing go up significantly it is obviously going to cause some bump in the cases (or cases to go down less quickly) and you have to adjust for that My guess is by the time we have truly widespread testing the number of new cases will actually be pretty low, so you might not see quite as big a bump as you'd expect, but who knows. We have test #s which help to contextualize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diehardlionfan Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 1 hour ago, mission27 said: Italy's # today is outstanding. Below 4k. Active cases up by less than 2k in a day. It will be flat and then declining in the near future. MoLs timeline very prescient I have to say Italy’s cases are up by 3599 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said: 1 hour ago, mission27 said: Italy's # today is outstanding. Below 4k. Active cases up by less than 2k in a day. It will be flat and then declining in the near future. MoLs timeline very prescient I have to say Italy’s cases are up by 3599 today. Yes daily new cases (that's why I said below 4k) However... Active cases today = 93,187 Active cases reported yesterday = 91,246 So they went up by 1,941 compared to the day before when they went up by 2,972 and the day before when they went up by 2,886 etc. Point being we are getting very close to the day when active cases will hit their apex, level off, and then start falling, which is what we're seeing in Austria, Switzerland, and some other countries that probably did a better job of shutting things down before they reached Italy levels Edited April 6, 2020 by mission27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malagabears Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 1 hour ago, mission27 said: Italy's # today is outstanding. Below 4k. Active cases up by less than 2k in a day. It will be flat and then declining in the near future. MoLs timeline very prescient I have to say Mission, Spain stats looking more promising by the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 1 minute ago, malagabears said: Mission, Spain stats looking more promising by the day. yep I'm always kind of hesitant because like the US and other countries it seems like you guys report new totals throughout the day, whereas Italy is 1x per day But its looking much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Hopefully the social distancing and summer temps (if this thing is indeed seasonal) are paying dividends. We all need to catch any break we can get on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 While I don’t think it’s time to open amusement parks, I sure would like a michelada and some chile poblanos on cinco de drinko. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mega Ron Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Boris Johnson has been moved to intensive care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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