Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[WizeGuy]

It's becoming apparent that my region of NY will enter phase 1 of opening up sometime this month. We meet 5 of the 6 requirements Cuomo presented. We just need more testing.

Here's NY re-opening plan...

Phase #1:
'Once the requirements are met, the plan would first allow construction and manufacturing and some retail stores to reopen for curbside pickup, similar to California, after May 15.'

Phase#2:
'The effect of phase one would be evaluated after two weeks. If indicators are still positive, state officials said, the second phase of reopening would include professional services, more retailers and real estate firms, among others, perhaps as soon as the end of May.'

Phase#3:
'Restaurants, bars and hotels would come next...'

Phase#4:
'...followed by a fourth, and final, phase that would include attractions like cinemas and theaters, including Broadway, a powerful financial force in New York City.'

Source:
Here’s Cuomo’s Plan for Reopening New York

I expect us to get to phase two by mid-June. That's when things will get interesting, imo. Phase three seems iffy. If masks aren't required when walking outside, then I don't think we'd be in phase 3 for very long. It's possible if seasonal effects slow the spread, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

Individuals and businesses will have to hold themselves accountable for phase three to stay in place, and I'm just not that confident people will follow the guidelines if the virus is slowing down for another month (which is what is needed to enter phase 3).

I'm not even thinking about phase 4 yet. That's just not possible unless 1) treatment becomes much better 2) a vaccine is mass produced 3) the virus eradicates itself or becomes less deadly via mutations

Edited May 5, 2020 by WizeGuy

[acowboys62]

2 hours ago, mission27 said:

Well, tbf, you guys actually had an outbreak whereas California never did and probably didnt need to lockdown for more than 2 weeks (to deal with the large influx of people fleeing the northeast at the peak of the outbreak there) 

So I think its fair for NY/NJ/CT/MA to wait an extra 2-3 weeks to open up because the risk of that area of the country opening up too soon is higher given the higher number of cases in circulation

This is true, but I do believe they should be taking regional approaches within states as opposed to states as a whole. I believe NY is doing this, so far zero talk of this in NJ.  All NJ will suffer due to North Jersey which is where the major outbreak was, central was relatively ok, a crazy few weeks and South Jersey appears to be spreading still but overall not bad.  It has gotten to the point the major testing sites are only operating 2-3 days a week and have now opened up testing to everyone, symptoms/exposure won't matter. 

[acowboys62]

2 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

I started collecting baseball cards again, and it's super interesting how prices have gone up.  It's one of the few things people with disposable income can buy right now, and all of that stuff goes through USPS primarily.  I follow Buy and Sell threads on Twitter and more items are being sold recently than since I started watching them over a year ago.  The Chicago Bulls documentary has spiked Bulls cards and memorabilia.  And this is the time of year that many NFL teams are doing charity work/auctions, so those things are being bought up and sent out.  The other sports leagues are doing some of the same by emptying their inventories. 

I got a solid collection still put away in my closet, need to start seeing what some of this stuff is worth.  It really is a hobby that seems very rare these days. 

[acowboys62]

25 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Its also directly responsible for people doing dumb things like holding super-spreading mass protests or refusing to wear masks.

If you tell people they have to stay home for 18 months and the world is going to collapse, that isn't a price people are willing to pay and they are going to make that clear through their actions.  If we were being a little more clear and realistic on what we are asking from people, there would be a lot less angst and reckless behavior. 

That is the most frustrating part, the lack of clarity.  And I get it, the answers just are not there, but it doesn't make the frustration any better.

[theJ]

1st world problems for a minute.

My brother is getting married in two weeks.  The wedding is still on, in a reduced capacity at a different (outdoor) venue.  I ordered a suit way back at the end of February from Men's Warehouse, had it tailored, etc.  It was supposed to be done right before everything closed down.  They've been closed since.  They were supposed to reopen yesterday, but haven't so far.  

I paid $300 for this suit...

[Shanedorf]

3 minutes ago, acowboys62 said:

I assume from that they are able to estimate how long it could potentially last?

I would tend to doubt it....but others know more on this topic
I'm not aware of any tests that could reliably predict how long the immunity would last in general or for a specific person. Your body should make Memory B-cells, which are immortal - but depending on how the virus changes over time, those memory cells may or may not produce a useful antibody response.
With the flu, we get a new vaccination every winter - this is a reflection of the changes in the flu virus each season.

[mission27]

9 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

It's becoming apparent that my region of NY will enter phase 1 of opening up sometime this month. We meet 5 of the 6 requirements Cuomo presented. We just need more testing.

Here's NY re-opening plan...

Phase #1:
'Once the requirements are met, the plan would first allow construction and manufacturing and some retail stores to reopen for curbside pickup, similar to California, after May 15.'

Phase#2:
'The effect of phase one would be evaluated after two weeks. If indicators are still positive, state officials said, the second phase of reopening would include professional services, more retailers and real estate firms, among others, perhaps as soon as the end of May.'

Phase#3:
'Restaurants, bars and hotels would come next...'

Phase#4:
'...followed by a fourth, and final, phase that would include attractions like cinemas and theaters, including Broadway, a powerful financial force in New York City.'

Source:
Here’s Cuomo’s Plan for Reopening New York

I expect us to get to phase two by mid-June. That's when things will get interesting, imo. Phase three seems iffy. If masks aren't required when walking outside, then I don't think we'd be in phase 3 for very long. It's possible if seasonal effects slow the spread, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

Individuals and businesses will have to hold themselves accountable for phase three to stay in place, and I'm just not that confident people will follow the guidelines if the virus is slowing down for another month (which is what is needed to enter phase 3).

I'm not even thinking about phase 4 yet. That's just not possible unless 1) treatment becomes much better 2) a vaccine is mass produced 3) the virus eradicates itself or becomes less deadly via mutations

I think the big red line between Phase 2 and Phase 3 is a problem

Restaurants, bars, and hotels are absolutely crucial to New Yorks economy and there is limited evidence that they pause a greater risk than retailers and other settings.  To the extent it is viable and economical for a restaurant to open with distancing limitations in mid-June, I dont think we should be asking them to stay closed much longer than others 

Phase 4 I agree is probably pretty far away for NYC 

[acowboys62]

6 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

I would tend to doubt it....but others know more on this topic
I'm not aware of any tests that could reliably predict how long the immunity would last in general or for a specific person. Your body should make Memory B-cells, which are immortal - but depending on how the virus changes over time, those memory cells may or may not produce a useful antibody response.
With the flu, we get a new vaccination every winter - this is a reflection of the changes in the flu virus each season.

Wild, some of the knowledge you guys have blows my mind.  This detailed virus stuff is legit foreign language to me.  So is every flu shot basically a differently blend based on that years flu strains or is it always the same shot "mixture" no matter what? 

[mission27]

4 minutes ago, acowboys62 said:

That is the most frustrating part, the lack of clarity.  And I get it, the answers just are not there, but it doesn't make the frustration any better.

And at this point most countries, states, cities, provinces whatever have put in place pretty reasonable guidelines (there are obviously outliers like NJ, CT, and MA but I understand why those states may be a week or two behind others).  The issue is really the bickering among political people and the doom and gloom focus of the media.  I think governors are doing a pretty good job across the board and honestly as much as federalism has got a bad rep over the past 2 months, we've seen some positives.

[acowboys62]

7 minutes ago, mission27 said:

I think the big red line between Phase 2 and Phase 3 is a problem

Restaurants, bars, and hotels are absolutely crucial to New Yorks economy and there is limited evidence that they pause a greater risk than retailers and other settings.  To the extent it is viable and economical for a restaurant to open with distancing limitations in mid-June, I dont think we should be asking them to stay closed much longer than others 

Phase 4 I agree is probably pretty far away for NYC 

I think hotels could begin to open soon (a few I work on are targeting first week of June (TN, TX, FL) and MD slightly after, they can maintain those with pretty good social distancing guidelines, the only problem situations would be the elevators getting crowded but I cannot imagine that many people would be going that you'd have to realistically be worried about that for a while.  Same with restaurants, I think some retrofitting is necessary and reduced capacities obviously but they should be good to go once those precautions are in place.  I think the hardest would be the bars, I just do not see how you do that, esp since people usually go to the bars in groups. 

Cinema/theaters/sports/concerts are the big question marks.

[acowboys62]

3 minutes ago, mission27 said:

And at this point most countries, states, cities, provinces whatever have put in place pretty reasonable guidelines (there are obviously outliers like NJ, CT, and MA but I understand why those states may be a week or two behind others).  The issue is really the bickering among political people and the doom and gloom focus of the media.  I think governors are doing a pretty good job across the board and honestly as much as federalism has got a bad rep over the past 2 months, we've seen some positives.

I would agree with the nation as a whole on that front and of course you have the extremes.  I hope a lot of people come out of this and regardless what side of the political fence you sit, people realize that most of the politicians out there do not give a F about us as the common person.  

[mission27]

Just now, acowboys62 said:

I think hotels could begin to open soon (a few I work on are targeting first week of June (TN, TX, FL) and MD slightly after, they can maintain those with pretty good social distancing guidelines, the only problem situations would be the elevators getting crowded but I cannot imagine that many people would be going that you'd have to realistically be worried about that for a while.  Same with restaurants, I think some retrofitting is necessary and reduced capacities obviously but they should be good to go once those precautions are in place.  I think the hardest would be the bars, I just do not see how you do that, esp since people usually go to the bars in groups. 

Cinema/theaters/sports/concerts are the big question marks.

By bars, I'm more talking restaurant / bars could stay open after hours as a place to serve drinks and for people to congregate in small groups.  Obviously large crowds and people standing at the bar is not a good idea... that was the first restriction put in place in Italy all the way back in February and will take some time to relax.  Dont think any of us are going to be hanging out in a crowded bar or club this summer sadly.  But I think you can re-open these kinds of things with some restrictions and limits to the extent it is economically feasible.  I'm fully aware that it wont be economically feasible for some restaurants but places that rely on being at full capacity to make a profit are going to be killed anyway given the deep economic recession we are in.  Letting those that can function at 50% capacity do so is better for those businesses and better for low risk people who want to go out to eat and seems like a good middle ground to me.

[Troy Brown]

I think a lot of restaurants are going to close permanently, or stay closed. Seems like that's the case in portland, at least. You're going to ask your staff to come off unemployment to work reduced hours with highly restricted occupancy. Think Oregon is going to have a 10pm last call. Good luck. Service industry, like many others, is decimated. 

I found out yesterday I don't have a job to come back to because they are closing which, at least for now, is better for me anyway. 

[seriously27]

14 minutes ago, acowboys62 said:

Wild, some of the knowledge you guys have blows my mind.  This detailed virus stuff is legit foreign language to me.  So is every flu shot basically a differently blend based on that years flu strains or is it always the same shot "mixture" no matter what? 

It's different. Think of it like this, they make their best guess on what strain is going to be the dominant strain for the coming flu season. Sometimes they guess correctly and sometimes they get the wrong one and people still get the flu. So when you get the flu, even though you've had the flu shot, this is the most likely reason. 

[mission27]

Few things:

1. These charts are literally rip-offs of the charts MoL posted a couple of days ago.  Unfortunately the folks who used them to paint a doom and gloom picture didn't take any of the MoLs caveat about the testing rates seriously. 

2. Meanwhile, Nate Silver who is a very smart cookie and generally agrees with the MoL 100% of the time got this point immediately.  Flat cases when we are ramping up testing 60% is a very good piece of news!

3. Nate's twitter has been outstanding the last couple of weeks and if you are looking for more content from someone who is smart on the numbers and has a sensible middle of the road point of view on things, I would strongly suggest you follow him. Although again, everything he posts tends to be what the MoL said a couple days earlier, so maybe Nate is an FF follower.