Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[WizeGuy]

17 hours ago, Xenos said:

June 2022?

Nah, 2021. With Fauci saying we could have a vaccine(s) widely available for the public by April- I have become increasingly optimistic, especially considering Fauci is typically more conservative in his estimates.

 

A widely distributed vaccine(s) by March or April. A month or so to vaccinate at least 50% of the population. Another month for immunity to be acquired. At risk groups will be mostly vaccinated by then.

 

Of course, there will be those who won't take it, but I think (hope) that with 'going back to normal' dangling like a fruit in front of everyones face if they get vaccinated- it will push more people to get vaccinated.

 

Then there's natural immunity that will already be built before the vaccine is available, which, of course, we don't know how long it lasts, but should, at the very least, help mitigate the spread even more when combined with vaccination= late spring/early summer being the return to a semblance of normal. My optimistic opinion, of course.

Edited November 20, 2020 by WizeGuy

[winitall]

47 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

Nah, 2021. With Fauci saying we could have a vaccine(s) widely available for the public by April- I have become increasingly optimistic, especially considering Fauci is typically more conservative in his estimates.

 

A widely distributed vaccine(s) by March or April. A month or so to vaccinate at least 50% of the population. Another month for immunity to be acquired. At risk groups will be mostly vaccinated by then.

 

Of course, there will be those who won't take it, but I think (hope) that with 'going back to normal' dangling like a fruit in front of everyones face if they get vaccinated- it will push more people to get vaccinated.

 

Then there's natural immunity that will already be built before the vaccine is available, which, of course, we don't know how long it lasts, but should, at the very least, help mitigate the spread even more when combined with vaccination= late spring/early summer being the return to a semblance of normal. My optimistic opinion, of course.

@ramssuperbowl99 might prove me wrong, but I don’t see any way that 50% of the population can be vaccinated over the course of a month. We are talking about over 150 million people. Not even getting into the part about what percentage will refuse, it just doesn’t seem like there is the qualified manpower to do that in such a short period of time. 

[WizeGuy]

15 minutes ago, winitall said:

@ramssuperbowl99 might prove me wrong, but I don’t see any way that 50% of the population can be vaccinated over the course of a month. We are talking about over 150 million people. Not even getting into the part about what percentage will refuse, it just doesn’t seem like there is the qualified manpower to do that in such a short period of time. 

It's going to be more of a slow transition, I think. Healthcare workers begin to get vaccinated in Dec-Jan followed by the most at risk and so on. It won't be an immediate jump to 50%, but I'm hoping after the vaccine is widely available we'll see a significant percentage of the population vaccinated by late spring-early summer. As I said, though, for my own mental health- I tend to lean more optimistic.  

[minutemancl]

I will say, if we've learned anything from the government response to the pandemic so far, cases don't necessarily have to drop for things to get back to 'normal'.

I'm hoping by mid-summer next year we are at a point where restrictions are significantly reduced and there is a clear path to 'normalcy'. Right now though, I really hope we get enough doses of the vaccine here to get to all the people working and staying in hospitals, SNFs, assisted living facilities, etc. My wife is wearing essentially a hazmat suit every day to do occupational therapy and is terrified of the situation in her place of work. Let's protect people like her and the high risk first.

[winitall]

24 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

It's going to be more of a slow transition, I think. Healthcare workers begin to get vaccinated in Dec-Jan followed by the most at risk and so on. It won't be an immediate jump to 50%, but I'm hoping after the vaccine is widely available we'll see a significant percentage of the population vaccinated by late spring-early summer. As I said, though, for my own mental health- I tend to lean more optimistic.  

I might have misinterpreted your post. When you said a month to hit 50%, I interpreted that as you saying we go from say a million people vaccinated to 150 million vaccinated in the span of a month. If you meant we find a way to hit April with say 50 million people vaccinated already, it becomes much easier to reach. 

Edited November 20, 2020 by winitall

[ET80]

46 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

I will say, if we've learned anything from the government response to the pandemic so far, cases don't necessarily have to drop for things to get back to 'normal'.

Which is why I'm thinking early May. It's not because things SHOULD be back to normal, it's because we'll simply START ACTING like things are back to normal...

[minutemancl]

2 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Which is why I'm thinking early May. It's not because things SHOULD be back to normal, it's because we'll simply START ACTING like things are back to normal...

I could definitely see that. Some people are vaccinated, more vaccines are being administered, cases drop again due to the weather (like we saw this past year), and everybody heads back to the beach and backyard barbecues.

It's really hard to fault people though. I read a tweet that really resonated that essentially boiled down to this: how can you tell people not to see their family for thanksgiving when they are going into work everyday?

There are always going to be dissenters (anti-maskers and anti-vax people are just objectively insane), but this whole thing has been mismanaged at just about every level. These half measures have arguably done more harm than good. Total lockdowns work. Half lockdowns breed contempt. People will take things as far as they are allowed to. People are thinking "myself and millions of others are going into work every day like normal, coming into contact with tons of people from multiple households. I'm allowed to do that, but I can't see my sister on thanksgiving?". Whether it is right or wrong, it's still a valid thought. I think this is the argument @mission27 was making like 400 pages ago, back in May or something if I am remembering correctly.

[ET80]

2 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

These half measures have arguably done more harm than good.

Mike Ehermantraut was right all along...

[Deadpulse]

Dont have the link but Pfizer submitted to the FDA for approval, expected to be distributing in December 

[WizeGuy]

4 hours ago, winitall said:

I might have misinterpreted your post. When you said a month to hit 50%, I interpreted that as you saying we go from say a million people vaccinated to 150 million vaccinated in the span of a month. If you meant we find a way to hit April with say 50 million people vaccinated already, it becomes much easier to reach. 

No- I think I just worded it poorly, haha. I do expect a majority of the vaccination to occur during the spring time, though I would like to hear from people who have more knowledge in the subject to inform myself on the distribution. I know we've been producing the supplies (syringes, etc...) for the vaccine for months now, so I'm hopeful we can mass distribute them when they're available. The US has her issues politically and socially, but we're a power house in manufacturing. 

[Shanedorf]

1 hour ago, Deadpulse said:

Dont have the link but Pfizer submitted to the FDA for approval, expected to be distributing in December 

I believe they submitted for Emergency Use Authorization which opens the door to begin vaccinating people
The more expansive Approval from FDA will come at a later date and will dive even deeper on additional questions

How long will immunity/protection last ?
More info on efficacy in real world setting ?
will it work vs any mutations that arise ?
How well does it work in different populations ? Are there any gaps ? ( age, ethnicity, co-morbidities)
Long term safety ?

Big step forward and Moderna will likely follow next week after Thanksgiving

[Deadpulse]

15 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

but we're a power house in manufacturing. 

We are?

[WizeGuy]

6 minutes ago, Deadpulse said:

We are?

We're not China, but I think many would agree we're in the tier just below them. Perhaps my view is misguided. Im far from an expert in the field.

[Shanedorf]

1 minute ago, Deadpulse said:

We are?

Haha ! good call

For novel drugs/vaccines - US still does a good amount of mfg. And Pfizer is producing this vaccine at several US plants
For generic drugs, about 80 - 90% are mfg in India/China

Step 1-  prioritizing which patients/people get it first
Step 2- allocate that amount of vaccine doses to cover the early recipients
Step 3- Distribute to the states, then to hospitals, clinics, nursing homes etc

Steps 1, 2 are done, step 3 is in process.
They are betting on the EUA and the moment they get the nod, injections will begin immediately

Step 4 - administer first dose
Step 5 - administer 2nd dose

[Deadpulse]

13 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

We're not China, but I think many would agree we're in the tier just below them. Perhaps my view is misguided. Im far from an expert in the field.

im less concerned about the manufacturing and more about the distribution. Just by the nature of its storage its going to be tricky enough but to have zero plan on a nationwide level is a bit terrifying when you stack in on.