2018 College Prospect Thread

[AnAngryAmerican]

53 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

if I had to put money, at this point, on what Elway will do is go get a vet and roll the dice on Kelly long term.  FA is what Elway does well, I think he probably know that, and he knows that drafting a QB is a crap shoot, and that if he blows it yet again, he and the team are in big trouble.

so, get yourselves ready for Cousins or Eli or Alex or Tyrod or Keenan or  McCarron or......

Since we keep winning, we've played ourselves out of position for one of the top 2 QBs. I tend to think Elway will find 2018's starting QB in free agency or via a trade. It's possible we draft a developmental guy a little later on or keep Brock as the primary backup and try to develop Machinegun Kelly. 

[AKRNA]

14 hours ago, Counselor said:

Baker is better than Darnold and Rosen. So this disregarding him at #6 or wherever is pretty asinine.

Bakers going to embarrass a lot of GM's, maybe cost a few their jobs. Looking back 10 years from now he'll be head and shoulders above the rest of this years QB's.

What exactly do his detractors see that we don't? 

 

 

 

[Scoundrel]

3 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Bakers going to embarrass a lot of GM's, maybe cost a few their jobs. Looking back 10 years from now he'll be head and shoulders above the rest of this years QB's.

What exactly do his detractors see that we don't? 

 

 

 

They don't like his size, his personality, whatever. I think people reach to dislike him as a prospect because of how he acts. Y'all don't have to date the guy and hide your daughters from him if you must. If he can win and bring his passion to a team he will elevate that team beyond I'm just here to get a check Rosen. 

[AKRNA]

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

People overblow Mayfield’s off the field issues.   I do worry he can be rattled easily on the field - college D are so easy to mask flaws that NFL D’s will expose, it matters little in college.   To me the Q is more on the other QB skills - QB college success rarely predicts NFL franchise QB play - the number of college - to - NFL duds is staggering nowadays with the move to more spread O’s.

FWIW, some of the qualifiers that make a prospect elite that reassure me:

1.  Elite physical tools - in terms of QB size makes it easier - but in the case of Wilson he had elite agility / speed and huge hands and a cannon arm.    Brees had the hands and arm and also had insane non-physical skills.  Size isn’t a necessity if you have the rest in spades.   Darnold might have the whole set (unless hands are small).   Does Mayfield have the rest of the needed skills besides size?   Remember you can be the hardest worker and smartest guy and if you don’t have those Pro-level skills you will still fail (where you can still fail if you don’t have the work ethic / smarts but you need the skill starter step first).

2.  Success at a young age - this mitigates the variance you see  with bad/great teammates or bad/great opposition.   Success in your freshman / sophomore year really stands out.   That’s where Darnold & even Rosen to a lesser extent reassure.  Wilson took over as a freshman starter,  Brees in his sophomore year.  Which impresses even more with...

3.  Success against elite competition / with a pro system - nothing against Mayfield but this is a huge unknown. The O style where he mimics running in his first 2 steps from spread / shotgun to force the D to commit then throws doesn’t work as the base in the NFL.    Like Lynch’s Memphis system had huge  Q’s here.  Now you can debate PAC-12 level of competition as no better than Big 12 that’s fair but both systems in USC and UCLA are far more pro-level in QB requirements than OKL’s is.   Wilson & Brees success is even more impressive realizing they faced the best Big 10 D’s year in and year out. 

Darnold and Rosen check the boxes in 1,2,3 (unless Darnold has small hands then legit issue).  Note that #1 & #3 aren’t fixed that Mayfield doesn’t have - it’s why the BCS Senior Bowl and Combine will help add a lot more crucial info.   I still won’t be as reassured but the gap could be closed.   But right now assuming he doesn’t have the Wilson level elusiveness or Brees/Wilson cannon and hands that’s a huge diff.  

Now for QB you want to see the following non-physical skills: 

4.   D recognition and read progresssion   

5.   Anticipation and accuracy in tight windows. 

6.   Pocket awareness and eyes up with pressure. 

Oklahoma’s O and the quality of the Big 12 D’s don’t create a lot of chances to evaluate #4-#6 properly.   BCS and Senior Bowl will be massive here if OKL gets to play 2 games to add more legit D film that could show more here.   

And to be clear the price matters - if we are talking Day 2 you can take more risk and accept more flaws.   But at 1.6 - 1.10 you shouldn’t have flags across the board #1 most of all (and #2 I’m a huge fan of, which he won’t have).  But at least it’s still an unknown in #1 that Combine and Senior Bowl will answer, and we we’ll see #3 - #6 dealt with way more info in the BCS and Senior Bowl. 

Best case for us is that he struggles in the BCS and shows non elite traits.  That will drop his stock even more than so called character issues (which I don’t worry about except on how it affects his emotions on field).  That then allows a move from 2.x to late 1st as reasonable.   If we have to pick him at 1.6 - 1.10 no thanks if he’s still not checking the #1 box (and doesn’t have the #2 box). 

 

As to #2. None of the other QB's you mentioned has had close to the early success Baker's had. He's had an absolutely phenomenal college career. A "one year wonder" he's not. 

[Broncofan]

47 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

As to #2. None of the other QB's you mentioned has had close to the early success Baker's had. He's had an absolutely phenomenal college career. A "one year wonder" he's not. 

The #’s at Texas Tech are purely inflated to an Air Raid O against pretty awful competition in 2013.  His 2015 OKL numbers look great until you see who he played and the only 2 games he faced top D’s his worst performances came.  

By 2016-2017 he’s entering his 4th and 5th year in college.   Success when you are 22-23 is way different at predicting success than success at age 19-20.    We can say that his path didn’t give him the same chances but he doesn’t have the same kind success at that age as Brees/Wilson facing top competition in a pro style O.   That’s the #2 marker that is reliable - it’s not required for all success stories but when it’s there it’s a huge positive predictor.  As for the one - year wonder - we all know he’s not - why raise it?  Success at a later stage isn’t the same though as success coming out of high school in terms of predicting NFL success. 

Let’s see how his skills actually measure out and see him against better defenders in both the BCS and Sr Bowl scrimmages (more relevant than the game) and see where he’s at.   I hope the makeup concerns drop him - that’s a non issue unless it’s affecting his play on the field (and the interviews and big lights this BCS will do more to show that than anything else, whereas the Combine will confirm if the size and skills are at least at the minimum threshold needed to succeed - because height isn’t everything, but any gaps in the rest of the skill set matters even more).    

P.S. Remember I was right there with those dismissing the Kansas ep as a legit concern with Mayfield so take it FWIW.   That part is pure PR smokescreen.  

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, Counselor said:

This debate is pointless though when Elway ends up drafting Josh Allen...

That’s the biggest fear TBH.  Allen checks  off all the physical skill boxes.   Looks great....until the moment they snap the ball.   Then it’s ugly.  And against meh competition too. 

For my concerns on Mayfield at 1.6/1.10 range they are nothing compared to Allen at any pick in Rd 1 or even 2.   If Elway even looks his way it means he learned nothing from Lynch.   That would be very disturbing. 

[Broncofan]

Besides finding a FA 1-year stopgap the other potential saving grace others have alluded to - if Chad Kelly looks great in voluntary minicamp.  Unlike Siemian his Rd7 pick was all on maturity and being better in between the ears the physical skills aren’t in question.  

Kelly wouldn’t be plan A but a stopgap vet and Kelly would help Elway and co. avoid reaching for need  rather than overall BPA at 1.6 - 1.10.   Saving Elway from himself and Allen is more likely if we have a 1-year plan in place and someone with a future even if it’s a long shot.  

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Besides finding a FA 1-year stopgap the other potential saving grace others have alluded to - if Chad Kelly looks great in voluntary minicamp.  Unlike Siemian his Rd7 pick was all on maturity and being better in between the ears the physical skills aren’t in question.  

Kelly wouldn’t be plan A but a stopgap vet and Kelly would help Elway and co. avoid reaching for need  rather than overall BPA at 1.6 - 1.10.   Saving Elway from himself and Allen is more likely if we have a 1-year plan in place and someone with a future even if it’s a long shot.  

I'd rather grab one in the second than go one year stop gap. If we trades down to the early teens we could get an extra second than dedicate one of the second to benkert from virginia.

All that stop gap does is interfere with developing of home grown guys. 

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I'd rather grab one in the second than go one year stop gap. If we trades down to the early teens we could get an extra second than dedicate one of the second to benkert from virginia.

All that stop gap does is interfere with developing of home grown guys. 

I think we'd all rather see a true QBOTF be acquired than a stopgap.   But the one-year stopgap could be the acquisition that allow Elway to wait until Day 2 to get the future guy.  The worst thing Elway can do is reach for a guy way too early out of need.  That's where a 1-year stopgap helps.   

And remember - getting a 1-year stopgap doesn't prevent the scenario you describe (although to be clear that 1-year stopgap wouldn't be Cousins, a 1-year stopgap is someone cheap, and who's not hugely in demand - Teddy B, Tyrod, Tannehill tier of FA's - and you only want a reasonable 1-year commitment).   Counting on any rookie QB who hasn't played extensively in a pro system to be ready on Week 1 is a tall, tall order.

[germ-x]

8 hours ago, Counselor said:

They don't like his size, his personality, whatever. I think people reach to dislike him as a prospect because of how he acts. Y'all don't have to date the guy and hide your daughters from him if you must. If he can win and bring his passion to a team he will elevate that team beyond I'm just here to get a check Rosen. 

I think this works both ways.  I can easily see how people reach to like him as a prospect because of how he acts.  When you hear/read a lot of the things about wanting Mayfield it’s for his competitiveness and passion, you rarely hear about his talent.  Even on this board I’ve read those things.

Again, I like some of the things Mayfield does.  Even then, I damn sure wouldn’t spend a top 10 pick on a 6 foot QB who comes from a spread system and throws to wide open targets all game long.  Hell maybe he does pan out and turns into a HoFer, but I wouldn’t be the one taking that chance.

2nd round, sure, not top 10 though.  As much as many hate to admit this, the NFL odds of him even being an average starter are minimal based on history.

 

 

[thebestever6]

49 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I think this works both ways.  I can easily see how people reach to like him as a prospect because of how he acts.  When you hear/read a lot of the things about wanting Mayfield it’s for his competitiveness and passion, you rarely hear about his talent.  Even on this board I’ve read those things.

Again, I like some of the things Mayfield does.  Even then, I damn sure wouldn’t spend a top 10 pick on a 6 foot QB who comes from a spread system and throws to wide open targets all game long.  Hell maybe he does pan out and turns into a HoFer, but I wouldn’t be the one taking that chance.

2nd round, sure, not top 10 though.  As much as many hate to admit this, the NFL odds of him even being an average starter are minimal based on history.

 

 

This is what I'm saying

[AKRNA]

55 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I think this works both ways.  I can easily see how people reach to like him as a prospect because of how he acts.  When you hear/read a lot of the things about wanting Mayfield it’s for his competitiveness and passion, you rarely hear about his talent.  Even on this board I’ve read those things.

Again, I like some of the things Mayfield does.  Even then, I damn sure wouldn’t spend a top 10 pick on a 6 foot QB who comes from a spread system and throws to wide open targets all game long.  Hell maybe he does pan out and turns into a HoFer, but I wouldn’t be the one taking that chance.

2nd round, sure, not top 10 though.  As much as many hate to admit this, the NFL odds of him even being an average starter are minimal based on history.

 

 

How about great pocket awareness, excellent accuracy in the pocket or on the move? Sure, I like his competitiveness, who wouldn't, but this kid can play.

[germ-x]

3 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

How about great pocket awareness, excellent accuracy in the pocket or on the move? Sure, I like his competitiveness, who wouldn't, but this kid can play.

I don’t disagree.  He’s the only player thus far that I’ve actually watched multiple games of.  Watched Ohio State and Oklahoma State (hoping to get 25 players done by January 2nd, we’re on winter break).

Anyway, here is my quick take as I don’t have time to write it all out.

Strengths:

- Exceptional instincts. Feels rushers and can really improvise when the pocket breaks down.

- Excellent throwing on the move/run.  Whether it is part of the play call or improvisation, he delivers accurate throws while moving.

- Instincts as a runner.  He clearly has experience rushing the football and understands when and where to pick up yards.

- Deep ball accuracy, while the majority of these plays were wide open, he had the arm strength and touch to deliver the ball accurately 40-50 yards downfield.

Weaknesses:

- System.  His completions were to wide open or quick reads 90% of the time.  Did a lot of RPOs.  To be frank, the most impressive part of both games was Oklahoma’s system.  Vs Oklahoma State Mayfield completed 2 long gains (one for a TD) where Oklahoma only ran 2 receivers out for routes and both times a player was wide open.

- Size.  Oklahoma moves the pocket an awful lot for Mayfield and vs Ohio State he had 3 balls batted down.  We all know he’s short, but in the NFL the pocket can’t be moved the way it is in college.

- NFL caliber passes.  Again, in both games he was throwing to wide open targets or quick reads.  College spread offenses also have the coaches changing plays and dictating who the #1 target should be.  IMO, his 3 best throws were vs Ohio State and all 3 went for incompletions.  But all were throws to covered WRs where he put the ball where only the WR could make a play.  

- Athleticism.  He’s an average maybe slightly above athlete.  Quicker than fast type.  A lot of the improv he gets away with in college won’t translate to the NFL.

Overall NFL future:

A 6’0 pocket passer with average to slightly above athleticism and a good enough arm to make all the throws.  His instincts and ability to throw on the run could compensate for his average to slightly above physical traits and make him a decent starter as opposed to an NFL backup.  His game is actually very reminiscent of Chase Daniels, though Mayfield is a bit more gifted physically.

When I start watching prospects I’m going to watch 2 more games of his, just because he seems to be the most polarizing prospect in the draft and maybe my opinion will be swayed.

[AKRNA]

16 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I don’t disagree.  He’s the only player thus far that I’ve actually watched multiple games of.  Watched Ohio State and Oklahoma State (hoping to get 25 players done by January 2nd, we’re on winter break).

Anyway, here is my quick take as I don’t have time to write it all out.

Strengths:

- Exceptional instincts. Feels rushers and can really improvise when the pocket breaks down.

- Excellent throwing on the move/run.  Whether it is part of the play call or improvisation, he delivers accurate throws while moving.

- Instincts as a runner.  He clearly has experience rushing the football and understands when and where to pick up yards.

- Deep ball accuracy, while the majority of these plays were wide open, he had the arm strength and touch to deliver the ball accurately 40-50 yards downfield.

Weaknesses:

- System.  His completions were to wide open or quick reads 90% of the time.  Did a lot of RPOs.  To be frank, the most impressive part of both games was Oklahoma’s system.  Vs Oklahoma State Mayfield completed 2 long gains (one for a TD) where Oklahoma only ran 2 receivers out for routes and both times a player was wide open.

- Size.  Oklahoma moves the pocket an awful lot for Mayfield and vs Ohio State he had 3 balls batted down.  We all know he’s short, but in the NFL the pocket can’t be moved the way it is in college.

- NFL caliber passes.  Again, in both games he was throwing to wide open targets or quick reads.  College spread offenses also have the coaches changing plays and dictating who the #1 target should be.  IMO, his 3 best throws were vs Ohio State and all 3 went for incompletions.  But all were throws to covered WRs where he put the ball where only the WR could make a play.  

- Athleticism.  He’s an average maybe slightly above athlete.  Quicker than fast type.  A lot of the improv he gets away with in college won’t translate to the NFL.

Overall NFL future:

A 6’0 pocket passer with average to slightly above athleticism and a good enough arm to make all the throws.  His instincts and ability to throw on the run could compensate for his average to slightly above physical traits and make him a decent starter as opposed to an NFL backup.  His game is actually very reminiscent of Chase Daniels, though Mayfield is a bit more gifted physically.

When I start watching prospects I’m going to watch 2 more games of his, just because he seems to be the most polarizing prospect in the draft and maybe my opinion will be swayed.

The height really doesn't concern me. I've seen way too many HOF QB's the same size for it to bother me.

[thebestever6]

23 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

The height really doesn't concern me. I've seen way too many HOF QB's the same size for it to bother me.

I don't know how you can say that when since 2000 only two qbs have gone on to be franchise qbs 6 feet or under. Thats 17 years! 

One of the qbs from those 2 literally has such a unique skill set. It's a generational skill set. Russell Wilson is a magician scrambling around and escaping situations. 

Mayfield has no traits equal to that trait of Wilson.

So basically we've seen a qb that short have HOF success once in 17 years!