Eli's past couple years + HOF effect

[Malik]

3 hours ago, Acgott said:

If Eli can start every game this season, he’ll have the second best iron man streak for a quarterback behind Favre

2 Super Bowl MVPs

Top 10 in major NFL passing stats

 New York Giants 

In 5 years no one will care he was never consistent or even a top 10 QB, they will just look at the stats 

 

Eli's career stats aren't going to look that great in 5 years.

[Ward4HOF]

46 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

You're doing it wrong.

It's "Moon, Warren". Why would you put a comma in the middle of a man's name?

You're, welcome.

Thanks man!  Sorry.  I'll work on that in the future!  

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

Just now, Ward4HOF said:

Thanks man!  Sorry.  I'll work on that in the future!  

Lol just bustin chops

[lancerman]

3 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

Two words..."Warren, Moon"...two more..."Dan, Fouts"

Regardless of 'eras', Rivers will make it, if those two can. Better TD:INT ratio. More yards. Plus, he led the league in key stats throughout the season like the others did, yet did it in an era with Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Manning, and Ben. 

Rivers is never getting in. When Moon got in there was Marino as the only guy who was super far above him who retired around the same time and Aikman who had rings, 

[DingoLadd]

15 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Rivers is never getting in. When Moon got in there was Marino as the only guy who was super far above him who retired around the same time and Aikman who had rings, 

Rivers is clearly the 2nd best QB of the 2004 draft class. (Eli has had the better career/story, Rivers is the better player but I'm biased so take that with a grain of salt) Only behind Ben of course. 

Rivers has as much of a case if not better than some other QBs who will push to get in the HOF over the next decade. Explain to me why he won't get in.

[Small Town Values]

10 hours ago, tonyto36 said:

Eli has never been considered a top 5 QB, has never been a first team all-pro, and been to the probowl only 4 times.  

For that reason alone, he should never hold a place in Canton.  

However, I won't be surprised if he gets in. I just won't like it.  

[JAF-N72EX]

5 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

Two words..."Warren, Moon"...two more..."Dan, Fouts"

Regardless of 'eras', Rivers will make it, if those two can. Better TD:INT ratio. More yards. Plus, he led the league in key stats throughout the season like the others did, yet did it in an era with Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Manning, and Ben. 

Well, eras are pretty important. Especially when part of your main point here is comparing numbers from the 70's and now. Which is a no no off top. For instance, during Fouts years ('73-'87), the INT% among all QB's with at least 150 attempts in each year was an average of 4.53. During Rivers' era ('04-'16) it was 2.83. 

I know this because it was only less than a month ago that I pulled all of the data from 1947 - 2016 on every QB with at least 50 pass attempts in a single season during that time.

Things have changed. I understand that most realize that it's a "passing league" now. But I'm not sure too many realize just how much things have changed since then. Nor do I think too many realize just how much passing has increased in general in the just the last 10 years alone. I'll give you a hint, a +14.7% increase in attempts alone.

edit: Point is, don't compare era's when talking QB's. It's nearly impossible.

[Shockwave]

12 hours ago, Malik said:

Eli's career stats aren't going to look that great in 5 years.

He'll finish top 10 in most/all the bulk stats and will still be there when he's up for the voting. Combined with the SB MVP's It'll be enough to justify the HOF committee to vote him in. It won't be first ballot and once this current generation of QB's finish up their careers Eli will fall out of the top 10.

If the question is do I think Eli deserves to get in? My answer is mostly no.

Do I think Eli will get in? My answer is mostly yes.

The criteria we as fans like to set on "HOF worthy" just doesn't match up with what the HOF committee sets.

[Ward4HOF]

7 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Well, eras are pretty important. Especially when part of your main point here is comparing numbers from the 70's and now. Which is a no no off top. For instance, during Fouts years ('73-'87), the INT% among all QB's with at least 150 attempts in each year was an average of 4.53. During Rivers' era ('04-'16) it was 2.83. 

I know this because it was only less than a month ago that I pulled all of the data from 1947 - 2016 on every QB with at least 50 pass attempts in a single season during that time.

Things have changed. I understand that most realize that it's a "passing league" now. But I'm not sure too many realize just how much things have changed since then. Nor do I think too many realize just how much passing has increased in general in the just the last 10 years alone. I'll give you a hint, a +14.7% increase in attempts alone.

edit: Point is, don't compare era's when talking QB's. It's nearly impossible.

I get your point, I do. What I am saying though, is Rivers is right in the thick of the top of the top QBs in the league...leading in areas like Passer Rating, Comp %, etc., against the Tom Brady's and Peyton Manning's...the "Tier 1" QBs of the era. If everybody's argument FF is that in order to get into the HOF, you have to lead your Position at critical statistical areas, meaning be considered the best of the best at some point in your career...PLUS have the longevity stats to back it up? Well, that's Rivers...even more so than Ben. Ben just happens to have taken his team to the SB 3x.

Rivers may have fallen off a bit, as of late, in the past few years, but he's hardly considered 'mediocre'. This is going to sound odd, since I just defended Ben a few days back against Rivers, but that was of recent seasons...the past 3 or so. However, Career-wise, Rivers has been statistically better. You mentioned how during Rivers' era, 2.83 as the INT%; well Rivers is at 2.6. Well below the standard.

[CP3MVP]

His peers lap the field with him statistically. For example  Ben and Rivers Career passer ratings are over 10 points higher. Career completion percentages 5-6 points higher

 

You have to compare him to Qbs who played like 20 and 30 years ago 

 

[Malik]

52 minutes ago, Shockey1979 said:

He'll finish top 10 in most/all the bulk stats and will still be there when he's up for the voting. Combined with the SB MVP's It'll be enough to justify the HOF committee to vote him in. It won't be first ballot and once this current generation of QB's finish up their careers Eli will fall out of the top 10.

If the question is do I think Eli deserves to get in? My answer is mostly no.

Do I think Eli will get in? My answer is mostly yes.

The criteria we as fans like to set on "HOF worthy" just doesn't match up with what the HOF committee sets.

In 5 years you'll have QBs like Rodgers, Ryan, Stafford, Ben, and Rivers with similar bulk stats and significantly better efficiency. Flacco might be in that category too if he's still playing 5 years from now. That's all I'm saying.

[Hunter2_1]

Read a stat that during the last season, Eli's receivers got open better than any other corps. Eli's accuracy, however, was the third worse. So he's throwing to open receivers, but can't put the ball in the right area. He's turned into a pretty bad QB. 

[LaserFocus]

10 hours ago, DingoLadd said:

Rivers is clearly the 2nd best QB of the 2004 draft class. (Eli has had the better career/story, Rivers is the better player but I'm biased so take that with a grain of salt) Only behind Ben of course. 

Rivers has as much of a case if not better than some other QBs who will push to get in the HOF over the next decade. Explain to me why he won't get in.

I like Rivers the player, but there are two factors which could delay his induction to Canton. The Chargers have been struggling in recent years, and Rivers appears to be on the decline as a QB. Also, for a player of his statistical accomplishments, it's disappointing to see only one AFC Title game appearance. Fouts made two, and also has the brilliant performance in the Miami playoff win on his postseason resume. And Fouts also walked into a more difficult situation than Rivers did as a Charger. I don't see Rivers as a first Ballot HOF selection, it feels like he could have done more in the big moments. 

[lancerman]

1 hour ago, Shockey1979 said:

He'll finish top 10 in most/all the bulk stats and will still be there when he's up for the voting. Combined with the SB MVP's It'll be enough to justify the HOF committee to vote him in. It won't be first ballot and once this current generation of QB's finish up their careers Eli will fall out of the top 10.

If the question is do I think Eli deserves to get in? My answer is mostly no.

Do I think Eli will get in? My answer is mostly yes.

The criteria we as fans like to set on "HOF worthy" just doesn't match up with what the HOF committee sets.

Yeah he'll finish top 10. By the time it comes to vote for him others will have passed him. He ain't getting in first ballot.  He will be waiting awhile. The more he waits the more he's going to fall down those lists like a rock. He's already not going to look impressive next to guys who debuted before him like Brady, Brees or his brother. 

The era matters. If you look at him in vacuum he's a decent candidate next to everyone whose in. When you compare him to his peers he's not. Brady, Brees, Peyton, Rodgers, Ben. Those guys are clearly ahead of him and the only QB's from the last 15 years who should make it. When you talk about Eli all of a sudden you open up a can of worms where guys like Romo, Rivers, Flacco, Wilson, Ryan, Newton should be talked about because they've either consistently played better, had MVP's, had Super Bowls, or some combination and Eli getting in for two will look bad vs Russell Wilson having one, appearing in another, and finishing top 3 in efficiency. 

[lancerman]

10 hours ago, DingoLadd said:

Rivers is clearly the 2nd best QB of the 2004 draft class. (Eli has had the better career/story, Rivers is the better player but I'm biased so take that with a grain of salt) Only behind Ben of course. 

Rivers has as much of a case if not better than some other QBs who will push to get in the HOF over the next decade. Explain to me why he won't get in.

Being the second best QB of a draft class means nothing. The 2nd best QB of most draft classes isn't going to get in. The best QB of most draft classes isn't going to get in. Ben's the only lock from that draft class and among the peers he's consistently compared to, he's second tier and probably not first ballot. Eli's only getting mentioned because Wes Welker dropped pass and/or Asante Samuels dropped an interception, and/or David Tyree made an amazing catch. One of those 3 doesn't happen and we don't even have the discussion and Ben's the only one getting in and he's not first ballot. 

River's has no chance unless he magically wins a Super Bowl in the next year. And the irony is all that would do is likely not get him in, and then make more of a case against Eli for letting him in for one more Super Bowl while not being nearly as good a QB as Rivers. Which would likely keep them both out. 

The reality is everyone knows Eli really doesn't deserve it and we are all going by some antiquated stance that only one QB with terrible stats didn't get in with multiple Super Bowls. Anybody whose watched his career knows he was never close to being one of the best QB's in the league. He's never even been top 5. I think every QB in the Hall can say that at one point or another in at least one season they were a minimum top 3 at their position. Eli lowers the bar.