2020 Broncos Forum NFL Draft Thread

[AKRNA]

16 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Yesterday on Good Morning Football (I love that show) they were talking about the draft, obviously, and one of them, can't remember if it was Kyle or Peter, said he had an NFL FO exec say that the media mock drafts and prospect rankings are as far off as he has ever seen from what he and other execs are thinking.

That leads me to believe we are going to see a lot of surprises this week, tomorrow especially as the majority of the pre-draft talk focuses only on the first round (or, in ESPN's case, only on Tua). It also means there are likely to be a lot of fan base meltdowns on social media and hostile press conferences. 

Every year I seem to pay less and less attention to the college kids so my opinion probably isn't worth much. That said, I'm constantly surprised by all the mocks showing 4 OT's in the top 10.

There is no Scherff and no one close to Nelson. Ramczyk would be near the top of this years class and Risner was as good a RT as any of them.  All of them can play and will probably have good careers at some spot, most likely RT. Thomas is the most NFL LT ready  and Becton has incredible potential down the road a few years if he can control his weight. 

Wills and Wirfs are both good RT's and will be in the pros but thats a high draft spot for an RT, just ask Ryan Ramczyk.

Anyway, just a thought. Probably not worth much but I'll be surprised if all these guys go where projected.

 

[Cutler06]

9 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Every year I seem to pay less and less attention to the college kids so my opinion probably isn't worth much. That said, I'm constantly surprised by all the mocks showing 4 OT's in the top 10.

There is no Scherff and no one close to Nelson. Ramczyk would be near the top of this years class and Risner was as good a RT as any of them.  All of them can play and will probably have good careers at some spot, most likely RT. Thomas is the most NFL LT ready  and Becton has incredible potential down the road a few years if he can control his weight. 

Wills and Wirfs are both good RT's and will be in the pros but thats a high draft spot for an RT, just ask Ryan Ramczyk.

Anyway, just a thought. Probably not worth much but I'll be surprised if all these guys go where projected.

 

Definitely needs based  and it seems like the clubs projected to take OT's have young QB's that need to be protected (as do we).

[broncos67]

41 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Every year I seem to pay less and less attention to the college kids so my opinion probably isn't worth much. That said, I'm constantly surprised by all the mocks showing 4 OT's in the top 10.

There is no Scherff and no one close to Nelson. Ramczyk would be near the top of this years class and Risner was as good a RT as any of them.  All of them can play and will probably have good careers at some spot, most likely RT. Thomas is the most NFL LT ready  and Becton has incredible potential down the road a few years if he can control his weight. 

Wills and Wirfs are both good RT's and will be in the pros but thats a high draft spot for an RT, just ask Ryan Ramczyk.

Anyway, just a thought. Probably not worth much but I'll be surprised if all these guys go where projected.

 

Personally, I think all four OTs are a lock to go by Pick 14. NYG, ARI, NYJ, CLE, TB are all in need of a reliable OT, and I could see MIA and LAC also going OT depending on the situation. Draft to draft rankings don't matter much. No one is close to Nelson, but that doesn't mean among this draft class these players aren't worth a Top 10 pick.

[broncos67]

1 hour ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

That's what I've been saying for a while now but I think the handwriting is on the walls that that is not the route we're going. 

Honestly, a lot of what I think will drive a trade up depends on a few things:

• Do Tua/Herbert go in the Top 6? If so, I would expect most of the OTs follow
• Do we see more OTs go early? And one or more QBs slide? Then we may see more trades into the Top 10 which may drop a WR for us.
• Do the Jets take an OT? This is the key. If the Jets take an OT, we will most likely get one of the Top 3 WRs. 

Denver may gamble and trade down. I don't think they'll stay at 15 unless Ruggs is there. And I don't think Tampa trades out of 14 if one of the Top 4 OTs is there. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

What's really going to be important this year, considering the lockdowns and all that, is connections between college and pro teams and GM's preferences for certain programs or conferences. That's important every year but I believe moreso this year as team's were precluded from doing the face-to-face stuff with the prospects and have them medically evaluated with the same level of thoroughness as in years past. GMs/HCs are going to rely more heavily on information they get from trusted sources.

For example, the connections between the various New England people scattered throughout the league - DET, HOU, TEN, MIA, NYG - make me think they will be more prone to look at Alabama players, for example, I expect Miami to go for Tua over Herbert if they go QB and the Giants to go for Wills if they go OT. Even here, I was told from my beat reporter friend the Denver FO watches the West Coast schools closely and trusts thier PAC-12 scouts a great deal, I'd expect them to lean even more heavily on players from this half of the county than we ordinarily would. 

This is just a theory in my part, we'll see if it holds any water in the next few days. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

36 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

Honestly, a lot of what I think will drive a trade up depends on a few things:

• Do Tua/Herbert go in the Top 6? If so, I would expect most of the OTs follow
• Do we see more OTs go early? And one or more QBs slide? Then we may see more trades into the Top 10 which may drop a WR for us.
• Do the Jets take an OT? This is the key. If the Jets take an OT, we will most likely get one of the Top 3 WRs. 

Denver may gamble and trade down. I don't think they'll stay at 15 unless Ruggs is there. And I don't think Tampa trades out of 14 if one of the Top 4 OTs is there. 

All good points. 

In the top-10, I think we see the top three QBs (Burrow, Tua, Herbert), the top four defensive players (Young, Okudah, Simmons and Brown) and two of the top OTs (Wirfs and Wills) all get picked. That's nine players with six picks to go before us at #15, but the rub is there are only five players,  three WRs and two more OTs, that make ideal sense for us.

For at least one of the top-3 WRs and top-4 OTs to still be on the board when we pick, if we stay put, someone has to take a player at another position. Someone will have to take Henderson, Love, Kinlaw, Chaisson or Murray for us to have even one of Ruggs, Lamb, Jeudy, Thomas or Becton available. Even more concerning is that the Jets, as you correctly point out, can take an OT or a WR, the Raiders and 49ers could both take a WR and the Bucs could pick an OT. 

This is why I am certain that if there is a specific player, or better said a specific OT or WR, we covet above the rest, we will trade up. If they want to just say "lets let the board fall to us" I expect a trade down. Right now I'm guessing, given that we have three 3rds and an early 4th, I think we trade up. 

Edited April 22, 2020 by AnAngryAmerican

[AKRNA]

6 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

That's very interesting, I'm glad you shared that. That said, I do think it weights salary a little too heavily. Nate Solder is now awful and is getting paid as a top-flight LT. But Tyron Smith and David Baktiari are both elite and paid like it but are middle tier in this ranking list. 

Of course then you look at Laremy Tunsil, younger than Bolles, 4 year starter at LT and a pro bowler last year and only making $350,000 more than Bolles. Bolles is listed two spots above him.

[AnAngryAmerican]

11 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Of course then you look at Laremy Tunsil, younger than Bolles, 4 year starter at LT and a pro bowler last year and only making $350,000 more than Bolles. Bolles is listed two spots above him.

And Tunsil is a superior player despite playing for the s***show that is Bill O'Brien's team. 

[paul-mac]

Got to admit I’m becoming less confident about any of the WRs making it to 15. Lamb to the Raiders seems like a lock and I think Ruggs could go 13 to the Niners. Jeudy has the best chance to fall but I kind of think 14 becomes prime spot for someone to trade up and leapfrog us for him. I’d like to make a trade with the Browns or Jets. I’d actually prefer to take CeeDee Lamb if we get the opportunity, but I’m fine with Jeudy.

 

The more work I do on Ruggs the more afraid I am. Seeing some bust potential there. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

10 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

Got to admit I’m becoming less confident about any of the WRs making it to 15. Lamb to the Raiders seems like a lock and I think Ruggs could go 13 to the Niners. Jeudy has the best chance to fall but I kind of think 14 becomes prime spot for someone to trade up and leapfrog us for him. I’d like to make a trade with the Browns or Jets. I’d actually prefer to take CeeDee Lamb if we get the opportunity, but I’m fine with Jeudy.

Yeah that's what I was saying above, if they want a top-3 WR or a top-4 OT they're going to need to trade up unless there's a surprise or two in the top-10. 

[germ-x]

59 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Yeah that's what I was saying above, if they want a top-3 WR or a top-4 OT they're going to need to trade up unless there's a surprise or two in the top-10. 

I think we will see some surprises.  I still think Denver should just go get their guy, though. K’Lavon Chaisson being one to keep an eye on jumping into the top 10-15.  I also think depending on how quickly the run on OTs happens that we could see 5 go top 15, with the other being Ezra Cleveland.  While Becton is a top 15 player, I could also see him falling out of the top 15 with the positive drug test and weight concerns.  Kinlaw is the other player I can see falling out of the top 15 maybe even top 20. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by germ-x

[AKRNA]

10 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I think we will see some surprises.  I still think Denver should just go get their guy, though. K’Lavon Chaisson being one to keep an eye on jumping into the top 10-15.  I also think depending on how quickly the run on OTs happens that we could see 5 go top 15, with the other being Ezra Cleveland.  While Becton is a top 15 player, I could also see him falling out of the top 15 with the positive drug test and weight concerns.  Kinlaw is the other player I can see falling out of the top 15 maybe even top 20. 

If we stay at 15 and the WR's are gone if Kinlaw is still on the board I'm running to the podium, regardless of what OT's are available.

In a Fangio defense with Kollar coaching this kid could really be a difference maker.

 

[germ-x]

9 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

If we stay at 15 and the WR's are gone if Kinlaw is still on the board I'm running to the podium, regardless of what OT's are available.

In a Fangio defense with Kollar coaching this kid could really be a difference maker.

 

Kinlaw has some serious injury risk.  Bad hip, back, and possible arthritis in his knees.  I like his tape, probably in the 15-16 range as a prospect, but without nfl teams able to evaluate him I think he could fall pretty hard.

[broncosfan_101]

4 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Yesterday on Good Morning Football (I love that show) they were talking about the draft, obviously, and one of them, can't remember if it was Kyle or Peter, said he had an NFL FO exec say that the media mock drafts and prospect rankings are as far off as he has ever seen from what he and other execs are thinking.

This is a fun thing to say to get people talking about your show, but who could possibly know this? Execs aren’t just sitting around calling each other and giving away their secrets. They’re all BS’ing each other and the media. It would make no sense for them to all talk amongst themselves truthfully about how they feel about every player. Whichever host that was is getting used as a prop by his source.

[champ11]

there has definitely been some chatter on twitter about Simmons slipping a little bit. That would be VERY interesting for us