1.26 - Jordan Love [QB; Utah State] - QB1

[MVP21]

15 minutes ago, Sandy said:

Any argument that references Rodgers' incredibly atypical career path as a reason not to give up on any player is intentionally using an outlier bias to try to win an argument.

I'd be willing to bet that the bust rate for first round picks who have looked as ineffective as Love through two seasons is very high. That's the reality. There is always a chance that he's another outlier just like the last two QBs we took a chance on, one by trade and one in the draft, and turn early disappointment into a hall of famer career, but odds are the search for our next long term QB will be a long and painful one.

Seems like a good kid though, I hope it clicks for him.

But we aren't talking about two seasons. All of our judgements are based on 6 quarters of meaningful play. Imagine if we judged last years Packers team based on their first 6 quarters where they lost 38-3 to New Orleans and were tied with Detroit at half 

[Sandy]

18 minutes ago, MVP21 said:

But we aren't talking about two seasons. All of our judgements are based on 6 quarters of meaningful play. Imagine if we judged last years Packers team based on their first 6 quarters where they lost 38-3 to New Orleans and were tied with Detroit at half 

We have a lot more to go off than his 6 quarters of NFL action.

[Norm]

16 minutes ago, Sandy said:

We have a lot more to go off than his 6 quarters of NFL action.

Do we though?

Do those 6 quarters of hardly any starter prep mean anything anyways?

[R T]

53 minutes ago, Norm said:

Do we though?

Do those 6 quarters of hardly any starter prep mean anything anyways?

Wasn't it Holmgren that said something along the lines that they need like 32 starts in NFL games before you really know what you have with a QB, yet Packer fans know from 6 quarters of play that Love is already a bust.  

[Scoremore]

1 hour ago, R T said:

Wasn't it Holmgren that said something along the lines that they need like 32 starts in NFL games before you really know what you have with a QB, yet Packer fans know from 6 quarters of play that Love is already a bust.  

Sandy just pointed out the bust rate is high given the circumstances.  Hard not to agree with his statement.  Is he a bust?  No one on this board can say that.  Can't call it a wasted pick either at least not yet.  If he doesn't show some dramatic improvement this year I'll be ready to jump ship on him.  Rodgers path was atypical wish people would quit using that as an argument.  Has nothing to do with Love. 

It is telling that no team ponied up for him prior to the draft.  Have to think the Packers would have moved him if a decent offer (2nd) came in.  He's still a Packer.  Leads credence to Sandy's argument.  Regardless I'm really pulling for him to work out. If he doesn't we'll have to start the process all over again. 

Most QB's need a year or two before they are ready.  MLF when asked said he's improved a lot but still has a long way to go.  That was last year.  Want to hear MLF when asked say he's close this year.  It will be year 3 the Packers should know if he's capable or not by the end of the season. 

[OneTwoSixFive]

Love was a good pick imo, whether he succeeds or fails in Green Bay. 

Why ? I'm not going where many of you might expect me to go, the improved play of Rodgers. Instead, I like the pick because I like the mindset of planning for the future at the most important position in football.

If Love succeeds, brilliant, we get the Packers next QB without giving up multiple 1st and 2nd round picks to acquire someone who still has a less than a 50/50 chance of success. Also, because they addressed it early, we should know by the end of this year if Love has what it takes to be a starter.......... and if he isn't, they try again in 2023, while Rodgers is still (probably) on the roster for another year.

If Love fails, the Packers simply try again.................and the next early QB pick would get my support as well (even though I might not like the choice they make).

QB is just THAT important - without an upper tier QB, winning is incredibly difficult.

Edited May 31, 2022 by OneTwoSixFive

[MVP21]

7 hours ago, Sandy said:

We have a lot more to go off than his 6 quarters of NFL action.

We really don't. He played roughly 5 quarters of preseason football(some of which was against the Bills starting defense using Packers backups) and preseason is almost never worth anything when it comes to judging players. He has 6 useful quarters of football which we can judge from which while those 6 quarters aren't pretty they are far from creating a full picture to say whether he will bust or not, on top of that I posted at the time what some of the top QBs did in their first career starts

 

Rodgers: 18/22 178 yds 1 TD 0 INT

Mahomes: 22/35 284 yds 0 TD 1 INT

Brady: 13/23 163 yds 0 TD 0 INT

Wilson: 18/34 153 yds 1 TD 1 INT

Allen: 18/33 245 yds 1 TD 2 INT

Stafford: 16/37 205 yds 0 TD 3 INT

Dak: 25/45 227 yds 0 TD 0 INT

Lamar: 13/19 150 yds 0 TD 1 INT

Herbert: 22/33 311 yds 1 TD 1 INT

Murray: 29/54 308 yds 2 TD 1 INT

Burrow: 23/36 193 yds 0 TD 1 INT

Averaging out the 1st starts of the above QBs btw comes to an average of 

19.7 completions, 33.7 attempts, 220 yards, .5 TDs, 1 INT

Love's line in his 1st career start was 

19 for 34 for 190 yards with 1 TD & 1 INT. He almost nailed that average dead on

 

[{Family Ghost}]

Can we all agree that Love is out of excuses this season?  Up to this point there's been some valid issues for any struggles he's had, but with the NFL returning to normalcy this past two years I think it's time for him to start showing that he's got the goods to be a quality starting QB in this league.  We kind of need to see some strong performances in training camp and preseason games this year.  Huge year for Love.  

[MVP21]

17 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Can we all agree that Love is out of excuses this season?  Up to this point there's been some valid issues for any struggles he's had, but with the NFL returning to normalcy this past two years I think it's time for him to start showing that he's got the goods to be a quality starting QB in this league.  We kind of need to see some strong performances in training camp and preseason games this year.  Huge year for Love.  

It depends how large of a sample we are talking about. If he gets one half of mop up duty then I'm not taking anything meaningful from that good or bad. I don't usually like to judge preseason results as often times play calling is very vanilla and situations can be very skewed depending on how many starters each team is playing. Now if he starts 4 or 5 Regular Season games I think we should expect to see some good things from him(the biggest thing for me is learning how to handle the Blitz which we won't know until he gets multiple starts under his belt)

[{Family Ghost}]

10 minutes ago, MVP21 said:

It depends how large of a sample we are talking about. If he gets one half of mop up duty then I'm not taking anything meaningful from that good or bad. I don't usually like to judge preseason results as often times play calling is very vanilla and situations can be very skewed depending on how many starters each team is playing. Now if he starts 4 or 5 Regular Season games I think we should expect to see some good things from him(the biggest thing for me is learning how to handle the Blitz which we won't know until he gets multiple starts under his belt)

Preseason games are tough to gauge, but at this point it should start looking easy for him.  He should be capable of lighting it up against defenses that are going to be running vanilla stuff as well.  I would expect struggles in real game action, but would like to see a big jump in his overall play.  When it comes to training camp, I'd just like to hear some raves from his teammates and coaches.

[Gopackgonerd]

1 hour ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Can we all agree that Love is out of excuses this season?  Up to this point there's been some valid issues for any struggles he's had, but with the NFL returning to normalcy this past two years I think it's time for him to start showing that he's got the goods to be a quality starting QB in this league.  We kind of need to see some strong performances in training camp and preseason games this year.  Huge year for Love.  

Agreed. Year 3 is when you should be showing signs of a competent QB. Not saying he wasn't last year, but we shouldn't be seeing some staple mistakes happening in the preseason games this year. 

Edited May 31, 2022 by Gopackgonerd

[R T]

3 hours ago, MVP21 said:

We really don't. He played roughly 5 quarters of preseason football(some of which was against the Bills starting defense using Packers backups) and preseason is almost never worth anything when it comes to judging players. He has 6 useful quarters of football which we can judge from which while those 6 quarters aren't pretty they are far from creating a full picture to say whether he will bust or not, on top of that I posted at the time what some of the top QBs did in their first career starts

 

Rodgers: 18/22 178 yds 1 TD 0 INT

Mahomes: 22/35 284 yds 0 TD 1 INT

Brady: 13/23 163 yds 0 TD 0 INT

Wilson: 18/34 153 yds 1 TD 1 INT

Allen: 18/33 245 yds 1 TD 2 INT

Stafford: 16/37 205 yds 0 TD 3 INT

Dak: 25/45 227 yds 0 TD 0 INT

Lamar: 13/19 150 yds 0 TD 1 INT

Herbert: 22/33 311 yds 1 TD 1 INT

Murray: 29/54 308 yds 2 TD 1 INT

Burrow: 23/36 193 yds 0 TD 1 INT

Averaging out the 1st starts of the above QBs btw comes to an average of 

19.7 completions, 33.7 attempts, 220 yards, .5 TDs, 1 INT

Love's line in his 1st career start was 

19 for 34 for 190 yards with 1 TD & 1 INT. He almost nailed that average dead on

 

Rodgers first start stats used here is year 4 for him, but he had several samples of action before that. It takes live reps to grow as a QB and when those come for Love he will grow like every other QB on that list. Fans act like Love is some great mystery, but he really isn't, he just need real action and he will be fine. 

Edited May 31, 2022 by R T

[JordanLoveFTW]

36 minutes ago, R T said:

Rodgers first start stats used here is year 4 for him, but he had several samples of action before that. It takes life reps to grow as a QB and when those come for Love he will grow like every other QB on that list. Fans act like Love is some great mystery, but he really isn't, he just need real action and he will be fine. 

There is absolutely no saying he will be fine. 
 

The way the Packers handled Favre said a lot about what they thought of Rodgers.

Conversely, the way the Packers handled Rodgers says a lot about what they think of Love. 
 

The odds are stacked against Love right now. All three pieces of information we have lead to him busting. 
 

1. 1st round quarterbacks have a high bust rate

2. The Packers bent over backwards for Rodgers

3. Love has looked poor in his limited snaps

There’s a chance he’ll be fine, but nothing so far makes it easy to say he’ll be just fine like you say. 

Edited May 31, 2022 by JordanLoveFTW

[JordanLoveFTW]

It’s impossible for fans to say what we have in Jordan Love. 
 

There is a much stronger case to be made that he’ll bust than that he’ll succeed. 
 

It will be an interesting preseason and some fun regular season games if he has to play. Finding out what we have is intriguing. 

[MVP21]

8 minutes ago, JordanLoveFTW said:

There is absolutely no saying he will be fine. 
 

The way the Packers handled Favre said a lot about what they thought of Rodgers.

Conversely, the way the Packers handled Rodgers says a lot about what they think of Love. 
 

The odds are stacked against Love right now. All three pieces of information we have lead to him busting. 
 

1. 1st round quarterbacks have a high bust rate

2. The Packers bent over backwards for Rodgers

3. Love has looked poor in his limited snaps

There’s a chance he’ll be fine, but nothing so far makes it easy to say he’ll be just fine like you say. 

I don't really understand when people bring up how the Packers extended Rodgers as some sort of negative for Love. Rodgers is the back to back MVP, the Packers would be dumb to not try and bring him back if they believe they can win a Superbowl this season. On top of that Rodgers didn't drag out his decision like Favre did, if Favre had committed to coming back in March as opposed to in Training Camp things might have played out in a completely different way