The QB Thread: Everything Carr, Stidham and beyond...

[Mr Raider]

13 hours ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Even at bama he was good for one 40+ yard run a season. And that’s about what he’s done so far in the nfl.

That’s not gonna cut it in the nfl. Especially if you want to be considered top 10. 

That's just silly IMO. Most years the top guy in 40+ yard runs has 3 or 4 in an entire season. Alvin Kamara has literally had less 40+ yard runs over the past 2 seasons than Jacobs. 

The idea that one or two extra 40 yard plays per season than what Jacobs provides is going to make any real difference or be the thing that "isn't going to cut it" is short sighted and putting way too much stock on the plays that are rarest in all the NFL for every single player. One or two extra 40+ yard plays isn't going to be what keeps Jacobs from being an elite RB. 

[NCOUGHMAN]

12 minutes ago, Mr Raider said:

That's just silly IMO. Most years the top guy in 40+ yard runs has 3 or 4 in an entire season. Alvin Kamara has literally had less 40+ yard runs over the past 2 seasons than Jacobs. 

The idea that one or two extra 40 yard plays per season than what Jacobs provides is going to make any real difference or be the thing that "isn't going to cut it" is short sighted and putting way too much stock on the plays that are rarest in all the NFL for every single player. One or two extra 40+ yard plays isn't going to be what keeps Jacobs from being an elite RB. 

Kamara also gets about 80 less carries /year than josh. 
 

but ok what about 20+ yard runs? That’s more fair. josh had 3 all last year

 

[Jerry]

21 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

He's also never been a homerun hitter as a rusher. He's very reliant on the blocking scheme and doesn't really have the speed or wiggle to compensate for a lesser O-line. 

I like Josh. He does his job well. But he's not an exciting big play RB. And I don't like how we've used him thus far. He's not a focal point of a great offense without, as you said, getting force-fed. I hope they use Drake more than they used Booker last year. 

This is the one big thing I do not like about Jacobs.  I want a RB that can hit random homeruns throughout the game and he just can't.  He does not have the long distance speed.  He should be the Mark Ingram to the Alvin Kamara.  We need our Alvin Kamara, a slithery fast RB that has 4.3 speed.  

[Jerry]

https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/rushing/2020/reg/all/rushingyards/desc

Interesting to look at.  Jacobs #3 in carries and I'm not looking at the rankings this very second but he's like 10th in rushing yards.

[Bitty 2.0]

6 hours ago, Jerry said:

This is the one big thing I do not like about Jacobs.  I want a RB that can hit random homeruns throughout the game and he just can't.  He does not have the long distance speed.  He should be the Mark Ingram to the Alvin Kamara.  We need our Alvin Kamara, a slithery fast RB that has 4.3 speed.  

We'll see how good Kamara does this year,with out a QB.

[Mr Raider]

9 hours ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Kamara also gets about 80 less carries /year than josh. 
 

but ok what about 20+ yard runs? That’s more fair. josh had 3 all last year

 

Yeah last year was a down year in that department, but the point MrOaktown_56 was trying to make was that there is a lot of solid evidence that points to the dip in rushing efficiency falls largely on a banged up OL and an OL that was flat out bad at opening holes last year (which the high number of broken tackles, forced missed tackles, yards after first contact, YPC after contact and low overall YPC frankly shows very clearly that Jacobs was getting hit at or behind the LOS as much as any back in the league and still made the first guy missed or dragged them for 4 yards). You can look at last season and say he had 3 runs of 20+ on the season, and I would say you're correct with the number, but your evaluation of why that is being a lack of enough speed to rack up those big plays on Jacobs part is incorrect. And my argument has as just as much ground, if not more because of the stats I mentioned above, because as a rookie with presumably the same amount of speed, agility, etc, Jacobs was top 5 in ALL the NFL in runs of 20+ yards. He was 4th among RB (Lamar Jackson was the one non RB) in 20+ yard runs, behind Chubb, Henry, and Marlon Mack. He played in less games than Henry his rookie season, but had one fewer run of 20+ yards. That means his lack of elite speed or home run hitting ability perceived by fans didn't actually lead to a lack of production or a lack of big plays, because he was near the top of the entire league in those 20+ big plays. He was also top 10 in the entire NFL in runs of 40+ yards as a rookie. 

The argument that his lack of speed will keep him from being an elite running back is honestly preposterous to me. I can go through and name countless backs throughout history that didn't have elite long speed that still were elite, workhorse, big play machines.

Jacobs IMO is the guy we should worry least about on the entire roster after Darren Waller. I am firm in my belief that his dip in production last season was not an indictment on teams figuring him out, his below average long speed causing him to fall off a cliff is not the culprit either, I don't believe it is something that will be a long term issue. I can also show you countless great running backs throughout history that had a year or two within their first 3-5 or so years that saw a similar drop in production.

To me it is quite clear why Jacobs saw his efficiency take a dive last year, the main reason? A bad run blocking OL. Hudson has never been an elite run blocker, but he used to be able to get to the second level and spring big plays, he's older, was dealing with an OL that was constantly reshaped and that aspect of his game was virtually non existent last year. Trent Brown was an elite run blocker Jacobs rookie year. Among the best RT in the league at that department. He missed virtually the entire season. The drop off in run blocking and overall play between Trent Brown 2 years ago to Sam Young and company last season is MASSIVE. Richie, a guy that has made a 10+ year career with pro bowl accolades on the back of his toughness, physical nature, and run blocking prowess missed almost the entire season and there was a noticeable downgrade when talking about guys like a rookie Simpson coming in and taking his place. All of those are individual downgrades in the run blocking department, but maybe even bigger than that is the total lack of chemistry, familiarity, and comfort the OL faced by the injuries causing constant reshuffling of the OL. And I don't think you can undersell how big of an impact that can have on running backs efficiency. 

You can say Booker didn't have as poor a YPC, but the problem is, yet another disadvantage Jacobs faced last year was defenses keying in on him because we are a more run focused offense than most NFL teams and they saw how efficient our offense could be when Jacobs was playing at a borderline elite level his rookie season, and Grudens counter to that was often times to be far too predictable with the run up the gut, run up the gut, pass, punt formula. Jacobs also saw the vast majority of short yardage and goal line situations over Booker which is a YPC killer with enough short yardage and goal to go situations inside the 5. Booker got a far more diverse, creative offense and often times got the looks he made the most out of be against defensive fronts that weren't expecting run because he saw far more playing time in our 3 or more WR sets. 

To me Jacobs showed everything to believe he can be an elite running back his rookie year, and history doesn't have too many examples of the RB position with players playing at his level year one and totally falling off a cliff. His speed isn't the issue. The way we used him, the injuries on the OL, the lack of consistency on the OL, and being far too predictable in how we deploy him was the culprit. Stop letting him get hit in the backfield so much and not have to break constant tackles or shake dudes in the hole like last year and we will see rookie Josh Jacobs. His speed isn't the issue. And Drake will also be a huge benefit, he's a clearly superior player to Booker, can handle some shoet yardage and goal line situations and deserves a more even split of carries. And that could also help take away one of the other things that contributed to Jacobs dip in production, we have ran him into the ground through 2 seasons, especially the first half of both years. 

The one thing I think we can really question about Jacobs and how well he is a fit as a bell cow or will it keep him from being an all pro capable player is his durability and lack of experience being the bell cow RB we drafted him to be. That I am not sure about. But with Drake it may not be an issue. 

I don't worry about his long speed. It's a nice thing to have. But it leads to 1-3 bigger plays than the elite backs without it per year on average. And countless HOF RBs didn't have great speed. That I am sure of. 

[NCOUGHMAN]

1 hour ago, Mr Raider said:

Yeah last year was a down year in that department, but the point MrOaktown_56 was trying to make was that there is a lot of solid evidence that points to the dip in rushing efficiency falls largely on a banged up OL and an OL that was flat out bad at opening holes last year (which the high number of broken tackles, forced missed tackles, yards after first contact, YPC after contact and low overall YPC frankly shows very clearly that Jacobs was getting hit at or behind the LOS as much as any back in the league and still made the first guy missed or dragged them for 4 yards). You can look at last season and say he had 3 runs of 20+ on the season, and I would say you're correct with the number, but your evaluation of why that is being a lack of enough speed to rack up those big plays on Jacobs part is incorrect. And my argument has as just as much ground, if not more because of the stats I mentioned above, because as a rookie with presumably the same amount of speed, agility, etc, Jacobs was top 5 in ALL the NFL in runs of 20+ yards. He was 4th among RB (Lamar Jackson was the one non RB) in 20+ yard runs, behind Chubb, Henry, and Marlon Mack. He played in less games than Henry his rookie season, but had one fewer run of 20+ yards. That means his lack of elite speed or home run hitting ability perceived by fans didn't actually lead to a lack of production or a lack of big plays, because he was near the top of the entire league in those 20+ big plays. He was also top 10 in the entire NFL in runs of 40+ yards as a rookie. 

The argument that his lack of speed will keep him from being an elite running back is honestly preposterous to me. I can go through and name countless backs throughout history that didn't have elite long speed that still were elite, workhorse, big play machines.

Jacobs IMO is the guy we should worry least about on the entire roster after Darren Waller. I am firm in my belief that his dip in production last season was not an indictment on teams figuring him out, his below average long speed causing him to fall off a cliff is not the culprit either, I don't believe it is something that will be a long term issue. I can also show you countless great running backs throughout history that had a year or two within their first 3-5 or so years that saw a similar drop in production.

To me it is quite clear why Jacobs saw his efficiency take a dive last year, the main reason? A bad run blocking OL. Hudson has never been an elite run blocker, but he used to be able to get to the second level and spring big plays, he's older, was dealing with an OL that was constantly reshaped and that aspect of his game was virtually non existent last year. Trent Brown was an elite run blocker Jacobs rookie year. Among the best RT in the league at that department. He missed virtually the entire season. The drop off in run blocking and overall play between Trent Brown 2 years ago to Sam Young and company last season is MASSIVE. Richie, a guy that has made a 10+ year career with pro bowl accolades on the back of his toughness, physical nature, and run blocking prowess missed almost the entire season and there was a noticeable downgrade when talking about guys like a rookie Simpson coming in and taking his place. All of those are individual downgrades in the run blocking department, but maybe even bigger than that is the total lack of chemistry, familiarity, and comfort the OL faced by the injuries causing constant reshuffling of the OL. And I don't think you can undersell how big of an impact that can have on running backs efficiency. 

You can say Booker didn't have as poor a YPC, but the problem is, yet another disadvantage Jacobs faced last year was defenses keying in on him because we are a more run focused offense than most NFL teams and they saw how efficient our offense could be when Jacobs was playing at a borderline elite level his rookie season, and Grudens counter to that was often times to be far too predictable with the run up the gut, run up the gut, pass, punt formula. Jacobs also saw the vast majority of short yardage and goal line situations over Booker which is a YPC killer with enough short yardage and goal to go situations inside the 5. Booker got a far more diverse, creative offense and often times got the looks he made the most out of be against defensive fronts that weren't expecting run because he saw far more playing time in our 3 or more WR sets. 

To me Jacobs showed everything to believe he can be an elite running back his rookie year, and history doesn't have too many examples of the RB position with players playing at his level year one and totally falling off a cliff. His speed isn't the issue. The way we used him, the injuries on the OL, the lack of consistency on the OL, and being far too predictable in how we deploy him was the culprit. Stop letting him get hit in the backfield so much and not have to break constant tackles or shake dudes in the hole like last year and we will see rookie Josh Jacobs. His speed isn't the issue. And Drake will also be a huge benefit, he's a clearly superior player to Booker, can handle some shoet yardage and goal line situations and deserves a more even split of carries. And that could also help take away one of the other things that contributed to Jacobs dip in production, we have ran him into the ground through 2 seasons, especially the first half of both years. 

The one thing I think we can really question about Jacobs and how well he is a fit as a bell cow or will it keep him from being an all pro capable player is his durability and lack of experience being the bell cow RB we drafted him to be. That I am not sure about. But with Drake it may not be an issue. 

I don't worry about his long speed. It's a nice thing to have. But it leads to 1-3 bigger plays than the elite backs without it per year on average. And countless HOF RBs didn't have great speed. That I am sure of. 

Well if it was the oline he should’ve been dynamic at bama. Imo he’s never going to be dynamic he’s zac Crockett glorified fb playing rb. 
 

you also have to take in consideration the amount of carries he gets and the lack of production. Booker imo out played josh last year with that same oline. 
 

I use stats because that’s what’s popular here but my eye test shows me a small power back, good agility, ok durability, might have a fumbling issue, that’s lacks long speed.

It’s really difficult to be a small power back in the nfl 

ps: maybe use paragraphs in your post esp if they’re going to be lengthy makes it easier to read 

[Mr Raider]

1 hour ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Well if it was the oline he should’ve been dynamic at bama. Imo he’s never going to be dynamic he’s zac Crockett glorified fb playing rb. 
 

you also have to take in consideration the amount of carries he gets and the lack of production. Booker imo out played josh last year with that same oline. 
 

I use stats because that’s what’s popular here but my eye test shows me a small power back, good agility, ok durability, might have a fumbling issue, that’s lacks long speed.

It’s really difficult to be a small power back in the nfl 

ps: maybe use paragraphs in your post esp if they’re going to be lengthy makes it easier to read 

My points quite literally are in paragraphs... Each being different points that contribute to my overall thoughts and opinion on his play overall to this point, my evaluation of his career to this point and with that in mind my evaluation of his future outlook. 

And I went over my opinion on Booker and his level of play in the post. 

We just have very different opinions on how we view Jacobs. I suppose time will tell which of us is correct. His best at the NFL level this far was as a rookie and he looked like one of the 5 or 6 best backs in football, last year he was more in line with a league average starting RB. I understand the NFL is a what have you done for me lately type of deal, but after 2 years we don't really have enough data to have a solid idea for which year is the outlier. I just happen to believe the rookie year Jacobs is what we will get consistently if we don't have a line with so many starters out and guys being shifted all over and trotting out multiple guys at a time that shouldn't be starters. This year will paint a better picture as to which is more in line with his true self. But I feel you are looking at last year and excluding everything he has done and showed prior to that to come to a conclusion as to what type of player he is and what he's capable of at the NFL level. His best has been that of someone that is so far from a glorified FB playing RB or a small, slow, power back. So I'm not sure how you can write that off and come to the conclusion he only is what his worst NFL play has been up to this point when there is just as large a sample size of him being close to elite from a pure runner standpoint. 

And to me when you consider how ravished the line was and the constant turnover and change to the line to put 5 starters out there, it's not a jump to say that was in large part due to the lack of chemistry and the overall poor level of play. As far as Booker I addressed that I feel he benefited from more diverse play calling as opposed to the run up the gut, run up the gut, pass offense we often saw with Jacobs. He also had the added benefit of not being keyed in on and often facing defenses that were in the nickel and smaller lineups because we did a better job being more creative and less predictable. And he saw very little of the goal line and short yardage runs that are so critical but often times can lower the YPC of a runner that sees so many carries in that area like Jacobs has. 

The one area we seem to agree though is the questions over durability and whether Jacobs can hold up to the bell cow type workload. And the staff obviously questions that too, hence the Drake signing. But that's another thing I feel gives us the best odds of seeing the best Josh Jacobs. 

[NCOUGHMAN]

4 minutes ago, Mr Raider said:

My points quite literally are in paragraphs... Each being different points that contribute to my overall thoughts and opinion on his play overall to this point, my evaluation of his career to this point and with that in mind my evaluation of his future outlook. 

And I went over my opinion on Booker and his level of play in the post. 

We just have very different opinions on how we view Jacobs. I suppose time will tell which of us is correct. His best at the NFL level this far was as a rookie and he looked like one of the 5 or 6 best backs in football, last year he was more in line with a league average starting RB. I understand the NFL is a what have you done for me lately type of deal, but after 2 years we don't really have enough data to have a solid idea for which year is the outlier. I just happen to believe the rookie year Jacobs is what we will get consistently if we don't have a line with so many starters out and guys being shifted all over and trotting out multiple guys at a time that shouldn't be starters. This year will paint a better picture as to which is more in line with his true self. But I feel you are looking at last year and excluding everything he has done and showed prior to that to come to a conclusion as to what type of player he is and what he's capable of at the NFL level. His best has been that of someone that is so far from a glorified FB playing RB or a small, slow, power back. So I'm not sure how you can write that off and come to the conclusion he only is what his worst NFL play has been up to this point when there is just as large a sample size of him being close to elite from a pure runner standpoint. 

And to me when you consider how ravished the line was and the constant turnover and change to the line to put 5 starters out there, it's not a jump to say that was in large part due to the lack of chemistry and the overall poor level of play. As far as Booker I addressed that I feel he benefited from more diverse play calling as opposed to the run up the gut, run up the gut, pass offense we often saw with Jacobs. He also had the added benefit of not being keyed in on and often facing defenses that were in the nickel and smaller lineups because we did a better job being more creative and less predictable. And he saw very little of the goal line and short yardage runs that are so critical but often times can lower the YPC of a runner that sees so many carries in that area like Jacobs has. 

The one area we seem to agree though is the questions over durability and whether Jacobs can hold up to the bell cow type workload. And the staff obviously questions that too, hence the Drake signing. But that's another thing I feel gives us the best odds of seeing the best Josh Jacobs. 

I apologize maybe it just looks like huge paragraphs on my phone. 
 

I agree tho only time will tell 

[drfrey13]

I do not think Jacobs is a bad back and you cold easily rank him in the top ten but there is also an argument to be made for him being over drafted in the 1st round and being overrated.  To me Jacobs is similar to Carr.  He will not produce on his own but if he has the right people around him he will be fine.   That is 95% of the NFL.  I ilke Jacobs because of his heart and style of play.  I can not get over his inability to make something happen or the amount of yards he leaves on the field because of his lack of speed and burst.  There is a lot to like but he has some serious limitations.   My biggest issue is not his forty but his 10 yard split.  His split of 1.6 is not good for a RB.  Jonathan Taylor last year ran a 1.48 10 yard split.  Melvin Gordon is another RB with a poor 10 yard split.  His average per carry over his career is 4.1.

Edited July 21, 2021 by drfrey13

[roi34]

I think Jacobs has a better year, Also think having Drake helps Jacobs

[drfrey13]

6 hours ago, roi34 said:

I think Jacobs has a better year, Also think having Drake helps Jacobs

I think it does also but how sad is it that you expect your 1st round RB to improve from another good back coming in and limiting his wear and tear by keeping his carries under 250.  If you take a back in the 1st they should be able to handle 20 carries a game.

[NCOUGHMAN]

12 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

I do not think Jacobs is a bad back and you cold easily rank him in the top ten but there is also an argument to be made for him being over drafted in the 1st round and being overrated.  To me Jacobs is similar to Carr.  He will not produce on his own but if he has the right people around him he will be fine.   That is 95% of the NFL.  I ilke Jacobs because of his heart and style of play.  I can not get over his inability to make something happen or the amount of yards he leaves on the field because of his lack of speed and burst.  There is a lot to like but he has some serious limitations.   My biggest issue is not his forty but his 10 yard split.  His split of 1.6 is not good for a RB.  Jonathan Taylor last year ran a 1.48 10 yard split.  Melvin Gordon is another RB with a poor 10 yard split.  His average per carry over his career is 4.1.

This.

faster 10yrd splits equal faster 40’s

iirc some de’s had faster 10 yard splits and some dt’s had equivalent 10 yard splits so josh is basically as fast as some 300lb dt in his first 10 yards 

 

[ronjon1990]

15 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

I do not think Jacobs is a bad back and you cold easily rank him in the top ten but there is also an argument to be made for him being over drafted in the 1st round and being overrated.  To me Jacobs is similar to Carr.  He will not produce on his own but if he has the right people around him he will be fine.   That is 95% of the NFL.  I ilke Jacobs because of his heart and style of play.  I can not get over his inability to make something happen or the amount of yards he leaves on the field because of his lack of speed and burst.  There is a lot to like but he has some serious limitations.   My biggest issue is not his forty but his 10 yard split.  His split of 1.6 is not good for a RB.  Jonathan Taylor last year ran a 1.48 10 yard split.  Melvin Gordon is another RB with a poor 10 yard split.  His average per carry over his career is 4.1.

Exactly. I don't think anyone here thinks he's bad or not worth starting and leepinng long term. Nor is anyone saying he can't or won't be productive. 

Like Carr, there's no need to reach blindly hoping to find an upgrade on him any time  too soon. If one comes along and falls into our laps, awesome. If not, he's someone we can win with as an integral part of our offense. 

But like I said, I can think of more than a handful of more talented RBs in the league who would probably exceed his production if they swapped places with him. We could do A LOT worse, but we shouldn't pretend we couldn't do better either. 

Thinking back, he's perfect for a smash and dash run game like Carolina did with Stewart/Williams or Tennessee hoped for with Lendale White and CJ2K. I think if we coupled him with a home run threat (maybe Drake?) we could get close to having 2 1k yard rushers. It's definitely a good problem to have. But Jacobs on his own just isn't a franchise RB. 

[MrOaktown_56]

Did you guys see that Bleacher Report put us 22nd in the league in offensive skill position rankings?

I just don't get it. We are loaded at every position but WR and even there we have a good mix of vets and young guns.