NCOUGHMAN Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, Bitty 2.0 said: The numbers don't match with what you're saying. 127 Rating https://www.footballdb.com/players/derek-carr-carrde03/situational-stats or https://www.silverandblackpride.com/2019/12/27/21039751/oakland-raiders-derek-carr-excelling-on-third-down-in-2019-why-does-he-seem-to-play-so-much-better I guess you’re talking about carr overall 127 rating on 3rd down on the first link? lets look at carr on 3rd down 3rd and 1-3yrds 64% comp (Good) 8td/0ints 4-7 yrds 74% comp ( good) 4td/1int 8-10 yrds 64% comp ( ok) 2td/0ints *11+ yards 61% comp 8.3 y/attempt * 0td/0ints that’s what we’re talking about if carr has to be counted on to throw more than 10 yard passes then it gets dicey. If we do need 10 yards we can count on carr to throw a 8 yard pass. Anything under 10 yards carr is money. i like this link especially imo the “mamba” “blood in the water” “killer instinct” “finish them off” stats whenever we had a 9-16 point lead carr is 59% comp for 5.3 yrds/att with 2td /0 ints or when we’re tied carr never threw a td but had 1 int now if we have a 1-8 point lead carr is money with 11tds and 1int but if we’re trailing 9+ points carrs y/a dips to 6.6-6.8 with 4tds/ 6int another thing we mention no sense of urgency when we’re trailing. Ironically carr throws more ints the lower his yards/att is 🤷🏾♂️ Edited June 11, 2020 by NCOUGHMAN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darbsk Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 46 minutes ago, NCOUGHMAN said: I guess you’re talking about carr overall 127 rating on 3rd down on the first link? lets look at carr on 3rd down 3rd and 1-3yrds 64% comp (Good) 8td/0ints 4-7 yrds 74% comp ( good) 4td/1int 8-10 yrds 64% comp ( ok) 2td/0ints *11+ yards 61% comp 8.3 y/attempt * 0td/0ints that’s what we’re talking about if carr has to be counted on to throw more than 10 yard passes then it gets dicey. If we do need 10 yards we can count on carr to throw a 8 yard pass. Anything under 10 yards carr is money. i like this link especially imo the “mamba” “blood in the water” “killer instinct” “finish them off” stats whenever we had a 9-16 point lead carr is 59% comp for 5.3 yrds/att with 2td /0 ints or when we’re tied carr never threw a td but had 1 int now if we have a 1-8 point lead carr is money with 11tds and 1int but if we’re trailing 9+ points carrs y/a dips to 6.6-6.8 with 4tds/ 6int another thing we mention no sense of urgency when we’re trailing. Ironically carr throws more ints the lower his yards/att is 🤷🏾♂️ If you were a coach with a 9 plus points lead wouldn't you be inclined to try and force the opposing offence to take short, quick throws and try to eradicate any long gains or big plays, the prevent defence kind of mentality? Surely thats part of the equation and you would think taking more chances would lead to more turnovers if the D is trying to prevent longer stuff. Now, I'm not saying that is all we should take should be the short stuff given up and we should take chances of course. How do Carr's numbers stack up with the rest of the league? I dont like just seeing stats in isolation with no context as they can be interpreted to mean anything. If he's markedly worse than the majority then there may be an issue. I'm not disputing any of the stats, just trying to put them into a reasonable context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCOUGHMAN Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, Darbsk said: If you were a coach with a 9 plus points lead wouldn't you be inclined to try and force the opposing offence to take short, quick throws and try to eradicate any long gains or big plays, the prevent defence kind of mentality? Surely thats part of the equation and you would think taking more chances would lead to more turnovers if the D is trying to prevent longer stuff. Now, I'm not saying that is all we should take should be the short stuff given up and we should take chances of course. How do Carr's numbers stack up with the rest of the league? I dont like just seeing stats in isolation with no context as they can be interpreted to mean anything. If he's markedly worse than the majority then there may be an issue. I'm not disputing any of the stats, just trying to put them into a reasonable context. I agree trying to keep a lead team will pull out prevent defenses to keep everything short. doesnt explain his 59% comp and 5yrd/att average when we’re up 9+ I agree I’d like to see his stats compared to other qbs in similar respective situations tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raidr4life Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 6 hours ago, Darbsk said: I dont doubt that Carr missed several open targets every game,..........the thing is all QBs do. I think (just my opinion) that because he's seen as a conservative QB by a very animated fan base and has taken a lot of flack it gets highlighted a lot more than other QBs. I watched games this year where Russell Wilson missed throws that I honestly could have made (and i think Wilson is the current best QB in the league), also watched Mahones throw short of the sticks to Hill for small gains whilst Kelce was wide open deep. Now these guys do get benefit of the doubt as they do pull out exceptional plays but the facts remain that every QB misses throws and receivers in every game. There is not a QB you can't rewatch a game of and pick holes if you're so inclined. Carr misses throws true, he checks down a little too often true and at times he seems to ignore WRs deep in favour of shorter routes true. I am inclined to give him a little benefit of the doubt as when surrounded by decent weapons he's played well IMHO. This season will be really interesting to watch if there is a slight change in nature. Yes every QB misses plays that's not the argument, but the bolded is why other QB's get the benefit of the doubt, they also make big plays. Carr can go on a 3 game streak without a single deep pass attempt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bitty 2.0 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 3 hours ago, NCOUGHMAN said: I guess you’re talking about carr overall 127 rating on 3rd down on the first link? lets look at carr on 3rd down 3rd and 1-3yrds 64% comp (Good) 8td/0ints 4-7 yrds 74% comp ( good) 4td/1int 8-10 yrds 64% comp ( ok) 2td/0ints *11+ yards 61% comp 8.3 y/attempt * 0td/0ints that’s what we’re talking about if carr has to be counted on to throw more than 10 yard passes then it gets dicey. If we do need 10 yards we can count on carr to throw a 8 yard pass. Anything under 10 yards carr is money. i like this link especially imo the “mamba” “blood in the water” “killer instinct” “finish them off” stats whenever we had a 9-16 point lead carr is 59% comp for 5.3 yrds/att with 2td /0 ints or when we’re tied carr never threw a td but had 1 int now if we have a 1-8 point lead carr is money with 11tds and 1int but if we’re trailing 9+ points carrs y/a dips to 6.6-6.8 with 4tds/ 6int another thing we mention no sense of urgency when we’re trailing. Ironically carr throws more ints the lower his yards/att is 🤷🏾♂️ So your argument is he is not good at 3rd and plus 11 yards? You do realize how crazy that sounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCOUGHMAN Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 47 minutes ago, Bitty 2.0 said: So your argument is he is not good at 3rd and plus 11 yards? You do realize how crazy that sounds. No my argument is in 3rd and long situations carr will ignore a open or even semi open wr 10+ yards down the field and choose to dump it off short of the sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raidr4life Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 1 hour ago, NCOUGHMAN said: No my argument is in 3rd and long situations carr will ignore a open or even semi open wr 10+ yards down the field and choose to dump it off short of the sticks. Exactly how, many times have you seen guy's like Mahomes and Rodgers go for it all on 3rd and long for Td's and convert because defense not expecting it. It's called being aggressive. Hell i remember Mahomes throwing td's on 3rd and 20 against us, 2nd and 17. Bottom line if it's 3rd and 12 you don't dump it off for 4 yards, you got to look for 13 or more if it's incomplete you punting anyway. If you actually try, chances are you will convert sometime. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darbsk Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 7 hours ago, raidr4life said: Exactly how, many times have you seen guy's like Mahomes and Rodgers go for it all on 3rd and long for Td's and convert because defense not expecting it. It's called being aggressive. Hell i remember Mahomes throwing td's on 3rd and 20 against us, 2nd and 17. Bottom line if it's 3rd and 12 you don't dump it off for 4 yards, you got to look for 13 or more if it's incomplete you punting anyway. If you actually try, chances are you will convert sometime. Maybe that's because guys like Rodgers and Mahoneybunch are the best QBs in the league, if Carr was doing that he'd be an All Pro. How does he compare in those stats to say, Cousins or Dak or Ryan or Stafford for example. If he's markedly worse than those then there could be a problem, if he's about the same then maybe that's because he's in that tier of good but not great QBs that we mostly seem to think he is anyway? Again, I'm not disputing the figures, just trying to put into context. I'm suspecting a lot of QBs would have similar issues, converting on 3rd and long is very tough and we'd all like him to be better of course and improve in every facet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raidr4life Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 7 hours ago, Darbsk said: Maybe that's because guys like Rodgers and Mahoneybunch are the best QBs in the league, if Carr was doing that he'd be an All Pro. How does he compare in those stats to say, Cousins or Dak or Ryan or Stafford for example. If he's markedly worse than those then there could be a problem, if he's about the same then maybe that's because he's in that tier of good but not great QBs that we mostly seem to think he is anyway? Again, I'm not disputing the figures, just trying to put into context. I'm suspecting a lot of QBs would have similar issues, converting on 3rd and long is very tough and we'd all like him to be better of course and improve in every facet. The issue is not whether he can convert on 3rd and long the issue is not dumping it off for 4 yards on 3rd and long. That other tier of QB's you mentioned don't do that nearly as often as Carr most QB's atleast attempt to get it to the sticks, you don't need to be the best in the league to do that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darbsk Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 (edited) 30 minutes ago, raidr4life said: The issue is not whether he can convert on 3rd and long the issue is not dumping it off for 4 yards on 3rd and long. That other tier of QB's you mentioned don't do that nearly as often as Carr most QB's atleast attempt to get it to the sticks, you don't need to be the best in the league to do that. Well that is what I'm trying to find out, do they actually do that? What do the stats say, or are we just assuming Carr dumps it short more? Somebody posted stats which showed Carr was pretty efficient in all but 3rd and 11+ I believe but there was no reference in how those stats compare to other QBs in the same situation. Other QBs may well be more aggressive and gave larger yards per attempt but I've seen plenty of guys dump it short regularly just the same as Carr and Id like to see the data in comparison before claiming the above to be true. Edited June 12, 2020 by Darbsk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raidr4life Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 5 hours ago, Darbsk said: Well that is what I'm trying to find out, do they actually do that? What do the stats say, or are we just assuming Carr dumps it short more? Somebody posted stats which showed Carr was pretty efficient in all but 3rd and 11+ I believe but there was no reference in how those stats compare to other QBs in the same situation. Other QBs may well be more aggressive and gave larger yards per attempt but I've seen plenty of guys dump it short regularly just the same as Carr and Id like to see the data in comparison before claiming the above to be true. I don't know man i just don't see other QB's constantly throwing short of the sticks all the time agree to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, raidr4life said: I don't know man i just don't see other QB's constantly throwing short of the sticks all the time agree to disagree. Maybe because we only watch 1 QB every week. I see a lot of Brady and Dak and they looked really bad some times when I was watching them. Carr we watched each week so we see every mistake every week and then come into sites like this and mash it up...I wouldn't pay Dak more than 32 let alone trade for him and pay him that or more. I also wouldn't guarantee Brady's contract for two years as he had lost a step (still good) but not the same and the 'wall' takes all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raidr4life Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 (edited) Actually here it is @Darbsk.....Carr is 12th in the AFC in %1st Dwn/Pass Att, 3rd & 8+ pretty much the bottom. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=AFC&rank=047&type=Passing&year= And not in the top 20 in the NFL... http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=047&type=Passing&year= Another interesting one is, Carr is tied for 6th in Td's in the first half, but doesn't crack the top 21 for Td's in the 2nd half. Edited June 12, 2020 by raidr4life 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raidr4life Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 (edited) 20 minutes ago, G said: Maybe because we only watch 1 QB every week. I see a lot of Brady and Dak and they looked really bad some times when I was watching them. Carr we watched each week so we see every mistake every week and then come into sites like this and mash it up...I wouldn't pay Dak more than 32 let alone trade for him and pay him that or more. I also wouldn't guarantee Brady's contract for two years as he had lost a step (still good) but not the same and the 'wall' takes all. I watch almost every game, I've been sports betting for almost 30 years so i make it my business. Dak was actually #1 on 3rd and long, Brady was 16th both made the top 20 which Carr didn't. Dak was 5th in 2nd half Td's, Brady was 13th, Carr didn't make the cut. Dak also best Carr in 1st half T'd's Edited June 12, 2020 by raidr4life 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrOaktown_56 Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 Are we going to bring up all the designed throws short of the sticks that Gruden called? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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