Green Bay Packers Draft Grade

[DenverPackFan]

Right now, I'd give it a C but it is unusually difficult to grade our draft because of taking a developmental QB late in Round 1.  Obviously, he isn't likely to add much value in 2020 and maybe not in 2021 either - but that doesn't make it a bad pick.  I wasn't expecting RB in round 2 but he looks very intriguing.  Big and fast, but from the clips I saw he surprised me by not trying to just run over people.  Given the contract status of our running backs, this selection could be very prudent for next year and after and he may contribute this season.

One comment... I've seen a few posts saying that we didn't get "value" and that they felt a lot of the picks were a round early.  However, considering how late we picked in every round it is almost like making a next-round pick.  For example, if we had taken Dillon with pick number 65 instead of 62 would he really be that much better value as a 3rd round pick instead of a second rounder?

Edited April 30, 2020 by DenverPackFan
typo

[DWhitehurst]

If you go with whom you think was the "Best Player Available at a position of present need" then I give Days1 & 2 an "F" and Day 3 a "B".  That averages to a D+ overall. 

If you go with whom Gute/MLF thought was the "Best Player for the Team/Scheme", then, well, we will have to wait and grade that in at least a couple years. 

I get the Love pick. I don't like it, but I get it in the long-term plan of things. But I think they massively reached in rnd 2 & 3. I think Dillon is a 4th round guy at best and Deguara is a 5th round guy at best. I think trading away their 4th round pick along with drafting at the bottom of rounds 2&3 forced them to reach for these guys lest they lose out on them later. They might turn out to be good players for the Packers, but I have a hard time taking anyone seriously who asserts they weren't reaches, at least a little bit. 

[MantyWrestler]

2 hours ago, DWhitehurst said:

If you go with whom you think was the "Best Player Available at a position of present need" then I give Days1 & 2 an "F" and Day 3 a "B".  That averages to a D+ overall. 

If you go with whom Gute/MLF thought was the "Best Player for the Team/Scheme", then, well, we will have to wait and grade that in at least a couple years. 

I get the Love pick. I don't like it, but I get it in the long-term plan of things. But I think they massively reached in rnd 2 & 3. I think Dillon is a 4th round guy at best and Deguara is a 5th round guy at best. I think trading away their 4th round pick along with drafting at the bottom of rounds 2&3 forced them to reach for these guys lest they lose out on them later. They might turn out to be good players for the Packers, but I have a hard time taking anyone seriously who asserts they weren't reaches, at least a little bit. 

Experts according to who? Sure some of these guys played ball and scouted like Bucky Brooks  but most never played or were evaluators. Obviously the Packers has a 2nd round grade on Dillion. 

Our 2nd and 3rd round picks will both play a lot this season unless they totally suck and then you would be right. Both are positions we kind of need. Williams is just a guy IMO and A. Jones May split after this season. The HB is also a need, we don’t really have one. MLF also wanted a much more versatile HB and now we have one. 
It’s sure not a sexy draft that’s for sure. I also agree with your take about value. I always felt if you draft that late and look at every pick as if it’s a round later, they start to look a lot better. Call Dillion and Deguara 3rd and 4th rounders and they already look like better picks... according to the experts. 

[Fox_NFLs_GG]

11 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

1. Never post Skip and Shannon

2. If Rodgers is out because we didn't draft a WR, Rodgers needed to be out.

It takes a long time for Rodgers to trust a young WR. He didn't trust Adams right away. Adding another guy that has to prove himself for a year or two isn't going to help this team right now.

[spilltray]

16 minutes ago, Fox_NFLs_GG said:

It takes a long time for Rodgers to trust a young WR. He didn't trust Adams right away. Adding another guy that has to prove himself for a year or two isn't going to help this team right now.

That's just not true. Rodgers had little problem with Adams and some rookies he's loved. This all comes fromguys like Janis who have physical tools but can't run correct/consistent routes. It has nothing to do with them being new and everything with being sloppy. Some get better, some don't.

[Fox_NFLs_GG]

17 minutes ago, spilltray said:

That's just not true. Rodgers had little problem with Adams and some rookies he's loved. This all comes fromguys like Janis who have physical tools but can't run correct/consistent routes. It has nothing to do with them being new and everything with being sloppy. Some get better, some don't.

Actually it is true. He only throws to guys that he trusts which are doing the correct route. He has thrown to guys that are rookies since they were his only option as people were hurt.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Fox_NFLs_GG

[Uffdaswede]

2 hours ago, spilltray said:

That's just not true. Rodgers had little problem with Adams and some rookies he's loved. This all comes fromguys like Janis who have physical tools but can't run correct/consistent routes. It has nothing to do with them being new and everything with being sloppy. Some get better, some don't.

 

1 hour ago, Fox_NFLs_GG said:

Actually it is true. He only throws to guys that he trusts which are doing the correct route. He has thrown to guys that are rookies since they were his only option as people were hurt.

Hey, I'm listening to your discussion here with great interest. We can have peace in our time if our receivers run routes correctly and Rodgers feels an improvement in offensive timing and shared decision making. (We can only hope the actual issue isn't that Rodgers has lost his accuracy and ability to see/feel open receivers. Some of those still images of Aaron throwing away from clearly open receivers alarmed me--but I don't know that I can trust still images cherry-picked and posted to prove a particular viewpoint.)

Part of grading this draft has to do with how much you ding Gute for not spending his 3rd to get Aiyuk (I can't say his name in my head without using Goofy's voice) instead of a 4th for Love. I can't personally ding him for crowding our receiver room with the lower tier receivers after that. The Packers obviously thought there wasn't a point in the draft where receivers available solved the timing/route-running/trust issues.

[edit: I propose that it would have taken a 3rd to get to Aiyuk since it cost the 49ers a 4th and a 5th to get Minnesota's pick. We would have needed to go higher still. The dynamics of a draft can't be ignored when criticizing our FO about moves they didn't make.]

 

Edited April 30, 2020 by Uffdaswede

[Mr Anonymous]

[Fox_NFLs_GG]

2 hours ago, Uffdaswede said:

 

Hey, I'm listening to your discussion here with great interest. We can have peace in our time if our receivers run routes correctly and Rodgers feels an improvement in offensive timing and shared decision making. (We can only hope the actual issue isn't that Rodgers has lost his accuracy and ability to see/feel open receivers. Some of those still images of Aaron throwing away from clearly open receivers alarmed me--but I don't know that I can trust still images cherry-picked and posted to prove a particular viewpoint.)

Part of grading this draft has to do with how much you ding Gute for not spending his 3rd to get Aiyuk (I can't say his name in my head without using Goofy's voice) instead of a 4th for Love. I can't personally ding him for crowding our receiver room with the lower tier receivers after that. The Packers obviously thought there wasn't a point in the draft where receivers available solved the timing/route-running/trust issues.

[edit: I propose that it would have taken a 3rd to get to Aiyuk since it cost the 49ers a 4th and a 5th to get Minnesota's pick. We would have needed to go higher still. The dynamics of a draft can't be ignored when criticizing our FO about moves they didn't make.]

 

Given the history leading up to the draft, Gute more than kicked the tires on Love for several weeks. He was probably one of several that they were targeting. I don't think Alyuk would have made an impact on offense for a year or two down the road. Given that Rodger's injuries have wrecked a couple of seasons and has not been the same player since, I think they had to have a backup that could be a potential starter in case of an emergency and maybe a replacement in the long term. A team tried to get back in the first round to get him from what I hear, they probably didn't want to give that team another potential great QB. It made sense at the time of the trade, but long term will be the judge of that. From what I see is that any future WR's drafted are going to be transitional ones that will give Love a potential safety net if he takes over with one of the the current young WR's being the star. Similar to what Rodgers had when he took over.

[mikemike778]

4 hours ago, spilltray said:

That's just not true. Rodgers had little problem with Adams and some rookies he's loved. This all comes fromguys like Janis who have physical tools but can't run correct/consistent routes. It has nothing to do with them being new and everything with being sloppy. Some get better, some don't.

Yep this is nonsense. Utter rubbish.

Rodgers was very quick to start targeting Adams - when Adams was struggling, fans were annoyed he was still targeting him. He seems to have taken to Lazard as well.

he has trust issues with receivers he doesn't think are very good. Its been a very long time since we used a meaningful pick on a receiver. Most of our receivers have been late round picks or undrafted guys. They generally aren't very good so he hasn't been keen to throw to them. He needs to get over that and just make do with lesser receivers given what has happened. Its not perfect but time for him to earn his money.

If we had taken one of the top receivers and he was what he hoped, there's a very good chance he would be Rodger's second favourite weapon very quickly.

 

[mikemike778]

8 hours ago, DWhitehurst said:

If you go with whom you think was the "Best Player Available at a position of present need" then I give Days1 & 2 an "F" and Day 3 a "B".  That averages to a D+ overall. 

If you go with whom Gute/MLF thought was the "Best Player for the Team/Scheme", then, well, we will have to wait and grade that in at least a couple years. 

I get the Love pick. I don't like it, but I get it in the long-term plan of things. But I think they massively reached in rnd 2 & 3. I think Dillon is a 4th round guy at best and Deguara is a 5th round guy at best. I think trading away their 4th round pick along with drafting at the bottom of rounds 2&3 forced them to reach for these guys lest they lose out on them later. They might turn out to be good players for the Packers, but I have a hard time taking anyone seriously who asserts they weren't reaches, at least a little bit. 

I think value is one of the most over-hyped aspects of the draft.

A lot of players drafted in the region around the end of the 3rd round never amount to much. Nobody knows where Deguara would be taken. Lets say we don't pick him and someone else takes him in the 4th and he becomes a really good player then what ?   Maybe we get 'value' and they get panned for reaching but they get the good player. Getting good players is more important than winning the 'day after draft value game'.

Speaking as someone who was very unhappy with the draft.

Value is more relevant in the 1st round but beyond that its not that important in comparison to getting the players you want.

[Pugger]

5 hours ago, spilltray said:

That's just not true. Rodgers had little problem with Adams and some rookies he's loved. This all comes fromguys like Janis who have physical tools but can't run correct/consistent routes. It has nothing to do with them being new and everything with being sloppy. Some get better, some don't.

Yes, Lazard is a perfect example of this.  It appears Rodgers won't throw to a guy who isn't where he is supposed to be or where AR expects him to be.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Pugger

[TransientTexan]

2 hours ago, Uffdaswede said:

 

Hey, I'm listening to your discussion here with great interest. We can have peace in our time if our receivers run routes correctly and Rodgers feels an improvement in offensive timing and shared decision making. (We can only hope the actual issue isn't that Rodgers has lost his accuracy and ability to see/feel open receivers. Some of those still images of Aaron throwing away from clearly open receivers alarmed me--but I don't know that I can trust still images cherry-picked and posted to prove a particular viewpoint.)

Part of grading this draft has to do with how much you ding Gute for not spending his 3rd to get Aiyuk (I can't say his name in my head without using Goofy's voice) instead of a 4th for Love. I can't personally ding him for crowding our receiver room with the lower tier receivers after that. The Packers obviously thought there wasn't a point in the draft where receivers available solved the timing/route-running/trust issues.

[edit: I propose that it would have taken a 3rd to get to Aiyuk since it cost the 49ers a 4th and a 5th to get Minnesota's pick. We would have needed to go higher still. The dynamics of a draft can't be ignored when criticizing our FO about moves they didn't make.]

 

Fair points, though I would add that a 3rd would only move them up to the Saints’ pick, and that is just all in theory. Not a lot of margin there for different trade partners. What if the particular teams in that range didn’t want to trade down? It’s not a process as easy to manipulate as a videogame or  buying a loaf of bread in the store.

Would New Orleans have been willing to trade down, when they are still trying the maximize Brees’ window? Would Minnesota be willing to trade down with Green Bay since they are within the same division and they knew a WR would help GB a lot? GB’s late 1st and late 3rd would not have outbid the Chargers’ high 2nd and high 3rd in getting the Patriots’ pick at #23. 
 

Would we be ok with GB trading away their 1st & 2nd to get Aiyuk or one of the other WR’s in the mid-1st? That’s a lot of eggs in one basket. And there weren’t many eggs to begin with, being in the 30-slot. 
 

 

[FAH1223]

I hate when a year or two after the fact people say they would’ve drafted this guy instead of this guy. It’s too easy. So I decided to pick along with GM Brian Gutekunst and make my selections right before he made his. These were my picks:

Round 1 (#26) – As expected, Gutekunst traded up. But who he traded up for wasn’t expected. With quality players still left at offensive tackle, defensive end, and inside linebacker – all positions of great need – Utah State’s Jordan Love was the choice. He’ll now try to make it three great quarterbacks in a row for the Green Bay Packers. Talk about pressure. I would’ve gone with the best player available, LSU’s dynamic Patrick Queen. He has a chance to be special, and he would’ve made a huge impact on a defense that hasn’t had a true three-down inside linebacker since Nick Barnett over a decade ago.

My pick: ILB PATRICK QUEEN

Round 2 (#62) – This was another big surprise, but it probably shouldn’t have been. AJ Dillon of Boston College ran 4.53 at 247 pounds at the NFL Combine, and nobody loves players running fast and jumping high more than Gutekunst. And while there was a definite need at the position, I thought it would be filled later in the draft. My choice would’ve been Houston offensive tackle Josh Jones. He didn’t deserve to go on Thursday night, but he’s a potential steal at the end of the second round. That said, I still would’ve tried like heck to trade up for Baylor’s Denzel Mims, the uber-talented wide receiver who, for some reason, was slipping.

My pick: OT JOSH JONES

Round 3 (#94) – If Love and Dillon were surprises, Cincinnati tight end/fullback Josiah Deguara was a complete shock. To be honest, I hadn’t heard the name once in preparation for the draft. It’s obvious coach Matt LaFleur wants his own Kyle Juszczyk, but the 49ers’ All-Pro was picked 36 spots later in 2013. I would’ve taken Appalachian State’s Akeem Davis-Gaither. It killed me not to grab a wide receiver here, but the pickings were slim by this point. Again, I would’ve tried like heck to move up for a receiver (Texas’ Devin  Duvernay), but Davis-Gaither was the best player available. Putting him next to Queen would’ve been exciting.

My pick: ILB AKEEM DAVIS-GAITHER

Round 5 (#175) – Finally, a major need was addressed with Minnesota inside linebacker Kamal Martin. He reminds me a little too much of Oren Burks, but at least Gutekunst didn’t trade up to get him in the third round. I would’ve finally taken a wide receiver here. While SMU’s James Proche, who runs in the mid-4.5s, wouldn’t have added much-needed speed and explosiveness to the offense, he’s a terrific route runner with tremendous ball skills. And unlike many rookie receivers, he could’ve helped the Packers right away.

My pick: WR JAMES PROCHE

Round 6 (#192) – Gutekunst began his run on interior offensive linemen with Michigan’s Jon Runyan, who could wind up being one the better picks of this 9-man class. He lined up at both tackle positions in college, and while he might not have the athletic ability to play outside in the NFL, he’d almost certainly fare better than overmatched Alex Light did a year ago. So while I like Runyan, I still would’ve taken Dane Jackson. The Packers need a No. 3 cornerback and the former Pittsburgh star has the ability to fill that role.

My pick: CB DANE JACKSON

Round 6 (#208) – With Corey Linsley entering the final year of his contract, I like the idea of taking a possible replacement. Oregon’s Jake Hanson reminds me of a lot of recent Green Bay centers, including Linsley. That said, I just couldn’t pass up Ohio State wide receiver K.J. Hill, who simply knows how to win from the slot. Adding Hill along with Proche wouldn’t be a dynamic duo, but at the very least, they might’ve given the offense better options than players like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown.

My pick: WR K.J. HILL

Round 6 (#209) – Another guard, Indiana’s Simon Stepaniak, was the pick here. He probably won’t play in 2020 due to ACL surgery in December, but he’s a nasty SOB who should compete to replace potential cap casualty Billy Turner in 2021. I would’ve also gone with an offensive lineman here, but my choice would’ve been Auburn tackle Prince Tega Wanogho. He’s just too talented not to roll the dice on at this point in the draft.

My pick: OT PRINCE TEGA WANOGHO

Round 7 (#236) – TCU safety Vernon Scott became only the second defensive player drafted by the Packers. He figures to compete with holdovers Raven Greene and Will Redmond for the No. 3 safety position. I would’ve taken Washburn offensive tackle Kyle Hinton, who projects inside at the next level. He’s a really good athlete (sub-4.9 at nearly 300 pounds) who dominated at the Division III level. And let’s be honest, isn’t the seventh round when you draft really good athletes who dominated at the Division III level?

My pick: OG KYLE HINTON

Round 7 (#242) – Gutekunst closed out the draft with Miami outside linebacker Jonathan Garvin. I’m fine with this pick, but at the time, my focus was on LSU tight end Thaddeus Moss. Randy’s kid was overhyped for months because of his name and the talent around him in college, but he’s a bargain in the seventh round. At worst, he’ll be a useful backup. At best, he’ll be a productive pass catcher in the right offense.

My pick: TE THADDEUS MOSS

OK, so there’s my draft. Other than not getting a wide receiver on day 1 or 2, I like this haul. Queen would start immediately, Jones would compete with Rick Wagner, and Davis-Gaither would add even more speed to the sub-packages. The day 3 picks would provide intriguing prospects at wide receiver, much-needed depth at corner, and some developmental athletes at tackle, guard and tight end. And the very best thing about this draft? It wouldn’t have pissed off the best player on the team and the face of the franchise.

[Packerraymond]

^^^ As not thrilled as I was about a QB, RB, TE day 1-2, I'd take it over a 2 ILB day 1-2.

Why in the world would that ever be a good idea??