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Nacho Simulation Football League (Season 20 - Taco Bowl XX POSTED!)


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2 minutes ago, pwny said:

This week could not have gone better for me. I won, both of the teams closest to me in the wild card race lost, and malf got that sweet tie. Half game out on the #1 seed and a two game lead over the other WC teams.

The playoffs are almost assuredly going to run through the winner of Knights vs Fire week 15. 

could both of you please experience slides heading into that matchup? Asking for a friend.

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2 minutes ago, pwny said:

This week could not have gone better for me. I won, both of the teams closest to me in the wild card race lost, and malf got that sweet tie. Half game out on the #1 seed and a two game lead over the other WC teams.

The playoffs are almost assuredly going to run through the winner of Knights vs Fire week 15. 

beating Brees 3 times in one year if no easy feat.

the difference between playing ruskie or any other red team is huge

gotta be the most important game of the regular season w15

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Week 13 rankings

  1. Egypt Starfall (10-3) - UP 1
  2. Norway Knights (9-3-1) - DOWN 1
  3. Phoenix Rattlers (9-4) - unchanged
  4. Chicago Fire (9-4) - UP 2
  5. Rocket City Trash Pandas (8-5) - DOWN 1
  6. Rio de Janeiro Pirates (8-5) - DOWN 1
  7. Freiburg Venom (7-5-1) - UP 2
  8. South Africa Woolley Mammoths (7-6) - unchanged
  9. Hanoi Viet Kong (7-6) - DOWN 2
  10. Reykjavik Direwolves (7-6) - unchanged
  11. Scranton Papermakers (7-6) - unchanged
  12. Indianapolis Predators (6-7) - UP 1
  13. Miami Sharks (6-7) - DOWN 1
  14. Tacoma Thunder (6-7) - unchanged
  15. Iowa Jagwads (5-8) - UP 1
  16. Seattle Sonics (4-8-1) - DOWN 1
  17. Southview Saints (4-9) - unchanged
  18. Anchorage Eskimos (4-9) - unchanged
  19. Little Rock Uni Royals (3-10) - unchanged
  20. Richmond Flying Squirrels (2-10-1) - unchanged

Another slight change in the calculation. Instead of using straight pythag w/l for the remaining 3 games, I gave odds to each game based on comparative pythag w/l in the specific matchup, with a small boost for the home team. Which is why a team like Rio is below RC, despite the much better PD. Rio has 1 home game vs RCs 2, and Rio has 2 tough opponents, while RC has 2 cupcakes. Might try to implement this sooner in future seasons.

 

Playoff odds

  1. Norway Knights (9-3-1) (proj 11.6 wins) - >99% playoff chance
  2. Chicago Fire (9-4) (proj 10.8 wins) - >99% playoff chance
  3. Rio de Janeiro Pirates (8-5) (proj 9.7 wins) - 70% playoff chance
  4. South Africa Woolley Mammoths (7-6) (proj 8.8 wins) - 45% playoff chance
  5. Hanoi Viet Kong (7-6) (proj 8.8 wins) - 44% playoff chance
  6. Reykjavik Direwolves (7-6) (proj 8.5 wins) - 39% playoff chance
  7. Tacoma Thunder (6-7) (proj 7.2 wins) - 3% playoff chance
  8. Seattle Sonics (4-8-1) (proj 5.6 wins) - <1% playoff chance
  9. Anchorage Eskimos (4-9) (proj 4.7 wins) - eliminated
  10. Little Rock Uni Royals (3-10) (proj 4.2 wins) - eliminated

I'm viewing this as a 3 team race for the 4 seed, with an outside chance of a Rio collapse creating a 4 team race for 2 spots. These teams play each other a lot here at the end, so I'm expecting carnage! I'm tentative predicting the Mammoths to win the race based on their schedule. Penciling in wins for them against the Royals and Sonics, so assuming that happens they either need to beat the Direwolves week 15, or even if they lose, it requires the Direwolves to ALSO beat the Sonics and the Pirates. It looks good for them if they handle their business

 

  1. Egypt Starfall (10-3) (proj 11.7 wins) - >99% playoff chance
  2. Phoenix Rattlers (9-4) (proj 11.1 wins) - >99% playoff chance
  3. Rocket City Trash Pandas (8-5) (proj 9.8 wins) - 75% playoff chance
  4. Freiburg Venom (7-5-1) (proj 9.1 wins) - 60% playoff chance
  5. Scranton Papermakers (7-6) (proj 8.5 wins) - 41% playoff chance
  6. Indianapolis Predators (6-7) (proj 7.6 wins) - 14% playoff chance
  7. Miami Sharks (6-7) (proj 7.5 wins) - 10% playoff chance
  8. Iowa Jagwads (5-8) (proj 6.3 wins) - <1% playoff chance
  9. Southview Saints (4-9) (proj 5.2 wins) - eliminated
  10. Richmond Flying Squirrels (2-10-1) (proj 3.1 wins) - eliminated

Again, the top teams look great. Pandas falling off a little, but have a couple easy games to coast their way. The 4 spot is more interesting with a few teams still in it. Venom play ALL 3 of the teams trying to take their spot, so this is crazy fluid here. Predators have a super difficult schedule, but the Papermakers actually have a very favorable one. I actually think they have a reasonable shot. The week 14 game is huge

 

TKs Week 14 odds

  1. Anchorage Eskimos (4-9) @ Norway Knights (9-3-1) - Knights 87% favorites
  2. Richmond Flying Squirrels (2-10-1) @ Miami Sharks (6-7) - Sharks 75% favorites
  3. Little Rock Uni Royals (3-10) @ South Africa Woolley Mammoths (7-6) - Mammoths 71% favorites
  4. Seattle Sonics (4-8-1) @ Reykjavik Direwolves (7-6) - Direwolves 65% favorites
  5. Iowa Jagwads (5-8) @ Phoenix Rattlers (9-4) - Rattlers 63% favorites
  6. Southview Saints (4-9) @ Rocket City Trash Pandas (8-5) - Pandas 61% favorites
  7. Scranton Papermakers (7-6) @ Freiburg Venom (7-5-1) - Venom 56% favorites  ---- co-Game of the week!
  8. Egypt Starfall (10-3) @ Indianapolis Predators (6-7) - Starfall 53% favorites
  9. Rio de Janeiro Pirates (8-5) @ Hanoi Viet Kong (7-6) - Pirates 53% favorites  ---- co-Game of the week!
  10. Chicago Fire (9-4) @ Tacoma Thunder (6-7) - Fire 53% favorites
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10 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

Venom play ALL 3 of the teams trying to take their spot, so this is crazy fluid here.  The week 14 game is huge

 

So the playoffs start this week for me. Thanks. We are riding the leg of Boswell.

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Just now, Malfatron said:

ah, so im the TK3 lock of the week.

 

Don't let the 4 wins fool you, that team is likely to wind up bottom 10 all time in point differential. It's a 2 win team that somehow pulled out 4 wins

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2 minutes ago, SirA1 said:

So the playoffs start this week for me. Thanks. We are riding the leg of Boswell.

9-6-1 probably will be enough for you

But any of the losses would require a little help elsewhere

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