Nacho Simulation Football League (Season 20 - Taco Bowl XX POSTED!)

[TheKillerNacho]

3 minutes ago, pwny said:

Nacho, I believe I clinched. If I lose out, I go 10-6. The only two teams that can get above that are the Direwolves and Mammoths. However because they play each other, one of them has to go no better than 9-6-1. So at worst, I should be able to get the 4 seed. 

Good call

[TheKillerNacho]

1 minute ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Good call

This also means Tacoma is eliminated

[Tk3]

9 minutes ago, pwny said:

Nacho, I believe I clinched. If I lose out, I go 10-6. The only two teams that can get above that are the Direwolves and Mammoths. However because they play each other, one of them has to go no better than 9-6-1. So at worst, I should be able to get the 4 seed. 

This is correct. I was working on including this in my writeup

With you owning tiebreakers over both REY and RIO via H2H, and with REY playing RIO and REY playing SA. I cannot come up with a scenario where you are outside of the top 4

[Malfatron]

13 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

This is correct. I was working on including this in my writeup

With you owning tiebreakers over both REY and RIO via H2H, and with REY playing RIO and REY playing SA. I cannot come up with a scenario where you are outside of the top 4

also, i think you control your own destiny for the division

Edited September 8, 2020 by Malfatron

[Tk3]

1 minute ago, Malfatron said:

also, i think you control your own destiny for the division

I do

And SA can lock EVERYTHING into place in a single game, regardless of anything else that happens lol

Getting ready to post playoff scenarios (not seeding, just in/out). I think I'll hold off on seeding until next week for the sake of sanity and scenarios

 

[ravens5520]

Dominate in all categories verse Ruskie to only lose out because of a PR TD and a random Cook fumble. What’s with these last two games. Dumb as F.

 

[EaglesPeteC]

GG whoever is in charge of the Saints

 

Man I better fix my offense and fast. I haven't scored over 20 points since week 10. 

[EaglesPeteC]

Big game against some lady named Tammy next week. I hope she doesn't think I'm taking it easy on her because she's a girl. I believe in equality. 

[RuskieTitan]

GG @ravens5520 what a game.

[RuskieTitan]

2 hours ago, ravens5520 said:

Dominate in all categories verse Ruskie to only lose out because of a PR TD and a random Cook fumble. What’s with these last two games. Dumb as F.

 

Had you right where we wanted all game long. Second half defense stepped up.

[Tk3]

Week 14 rankings

1. Egypt Starfall (11-3) - unchanged
2. Norway Knights (10-3-1) - unchanged
3. Phoenix Rattlers (10-4) - unchanged
4. Chicago Fire (10-4) - unchanged
5. Rio de Janeiro Pirates (9-5) - UP 1
6. Rocket City Trash Pandas (9-5) - DOWN 1
7. Freiburg Venom (8-5-1) - unchanged
8. South Africa Woolley Mammoths (8-6) - unchanged
9. Reykjavik Direwolves (8-6) - UP 1
10. Hanoi Viet Kong (7-7) - DOWN 1
11. Scranton Papermakers (7-7) - unchanged
12. Miami Sharks (7-7) - UP 1
13. Indianapolis Predators (6-8) - DOWN 1
14. Tacoma Thunder (6-8) - unchanged
15. Iowa Jagwads (5-9) - unchanged
16. Southview Saints (4-10) - UP 1
17. Seattle Sonics (4-9-1) - DOWN 1
18. Anchorage Eskimos (4-10) - unchanged
19. Little Rock Uni Royals (3-11) - unchanged
20. Richmond Flying Squirrels (2-11-1) - unchanged

Things are solidifying. Teams at the top all won, so not much shakeup

 

Playoff odds

1. Norway Knights (10-3-1) (proj 11.7 wins) - clinched
2. Chicago Fire (10-4) (proj 11.3 wins) - clinched
3. Rio de Janeiro Pirates (9-5) (proj 10.2 wins) - 95% playoff chance
4. South Africa Woolley Mammoths (8-6) (proj 9.1 wins) - 69% playoff chance
5. Reykjavik Direwolves (8-6) (proj 8.9 wins) - 31% playoff chance
6. Hanoi Viet Kong (7-7) (proj 8.3 wins) - 5% playoff chance
7. Tacoma Thunder (6-8) (proj 6.7 wins) - eliminated
8. Seattle Sonics (4-9-1) (proj 5.2 wins) - eliminated
9. Anchorage Eskimos (4-10) (proj 4.5 wins) - eliminated
10. Little Rock Uni Royals (3-11) (proj 3.9 wins) - eliminated

 

• RIO is in if they win either remaining game OR if they lose both games but SA beats REY AND SEA beats SA
• SA is in if they beat REY OR if they lose to REY but RIO beats REY and SA beats SEA
• HAN is in if they win out AND REY beats SA AND RIO beats REY AND SEA beats SA
• REY is in if two of those teams fail to meet the above objectives

tl;dr - if SA beats REY in week 15, then RIO and SA are in. If not, RIO is still almost assuredly in, and it comes down to a wild week 17. HAN is needs a ton of things to happen

 

1. Egypt Starfall (11-3) (proj 12.2 wins) - clinched
2. Phoenix Rattlers (10-4) (proj 11.5 wins) - clinched
3. Rocket City Trash Pandas (9-5) (proj 10.2 wins) - >99% playoff chance
4. Freiburg Venom (8-5-1) (proj 9.7 wins) - 92% playoff chance
5. Scranton Papermakers (7-7) (proj 8.0 wins) - 6% playoff chance
6. Miami Sharks (7-7) (proj 7.7 wins) - 2% playoff chance
7. Indianapolis Predators (6-8) (proj 7.0 wins) - eliminated
8. Iowa Jagwads (5-9) (proj 6.0 wins) - eliminated
9. Southview Saints (4-10) (proj 4.8 wins) - eliminated
10. Richmond Flying Squirrels (2-11-1) (proj 2.9 wins) - eliminated

 

• RC is in if they win either remaining game OR if MIA loses either game OR if FRE loses both games
• FRE is in if they win either remaining game OR if both SCR and MIA lose either remaining game
• MIA is in if they win both remaining games AND IND beats FRE
• SCR is in if they win both remaining games AND FRE loses both remaining games AND PHO beats MIA

tl;dr - RC is almost assuredly in, FRE is almost assuredly in, and MIA and SCR need legit miracles

 

TKs Week 14 odds

1. Phoenix Rattlers (10-4) @ Richmond Flying Squirrels (2-11-1) - Rattlers 81% favorites
2. Little Rock Uni Royals (3-11) @ Anchorage Eskimos (4-10) - Royals 64% favorites
3. Hanoi Viet Kong (7-7) @ Seattle Sonics (4-9-1) - Kong 63% favorites
4. Rio de Janeiro Pirates (9-5) @ Iowa Jagwads (5-9) - Pirates 61% favorites
5. Tacoma Thunder (6-8) @ Indianapolis Predators (6-8) - Predators 61% favorites
6. Rocket City Trash Pandas (9-5) @ Egypt Starfall (11-3) - Starfall 58% favorites  ---- co-Game of the week!
7. Freiburg Venom (8-5-1) @ Miami Sharks (7-7) -Venom 58% favorites
8. Southview Saints (4-10) @ Scranton Papermakers (7-7) - Papermakers 54% favorites
9. Norway Knights (10-3-1) @ Chicago Fire (10-4) - Knights 54% favorites  ---- co-Game of the week!
10. Reykjavik Direwolves (8-6) @ South Africa Woolley Mammoths (8-6) - Mammoths 52% favorites  ---- co-Game of the week!

Couldn't resist naming 3 GOWs. Two games made up of top 6 teams that determine seeding, plus the game that is the #1 most meaningful all season as far as in/out of playoffs

 

[RuskieTitan]

I have a 95% playoff chance and earlier had a 99%.

Hold my beer and watch as I miss the playoffs.

[Tk3]

32 minutes ago, RuskieTitan said:

I have a 95% playoff chance and earlier had a 99%.

Hold my beer and watch as I miss the playoffs.

you were at 99, then lost 2 consecutive games, lowering yourself down, then wins brought you back to 95%. The fact that the Fire are 4-0 since then and passed you, and that the Mammoths and Direwolves are 3-1 and 4-0, respectively, has made it much closer to the point where your last couple wins haven't been enough to lock anything up

It's super in your favor still, but rng being what it is leaves a few % chance of those specific outcomes all happening

Just beat a 5-9 team next week and its all gravy

[pwny]

The Predators starting with that insane point differential through 4 games, only to go 2-8 after that and get eliminated two weeks before the season finished. That’s a massive oof. 

[bucsfan333]

1 hour ago, pwny said:

The Predators starting with that insane point differential through 4 games, only to go 2-8 after that and get eliminated two weeks before the season finished. That’s a massive oof. 

I like to think I started the descent of the greatest team of all time.