MVP Watch FINAL RANKINGS (Version 17.0)

[Cheesehawk]

1 minute ago, SkippyX said:

Now you do a Mahomes game!

Cant find any tight window throws. Just a bunch of gimmies 

[flyers0909]

3 minutes ago, Cheesehawk said:

Cant find any tight window throws. Just a bunch of gimmies 

 

[flyers0909]

Double

Edited December 29, 2020 by flyers0909

[SkippyX]

I understand some people are here just to get their feelings hurt and get angry but again to be clear. I am not tabulating both guys complete seasons here and I'm not going to do that.

Anyone else is free to do all that work and if a youtuber or sports professional does it then be sure to link it.

 

Here's an example of routine vs special.

The TD at about 9:50 is completely routine

• clean pocket
• routine throw

stick around for the 2 point conversion

The throw at 5:02 is vintage Mahomes being Mahomes.

 

[WFLukic]

Full disclosure, I'm not a Buffalo fan. I'm a Denver fan but have Allen as my QB in one of the fantasy leagues on this site (so while this may come across as biased, it's more I like him as a player because he's good rather than me exaggerating his talent because I like the team he's on). 

Having watched Allen and Mahomes every week this year, Allen has been better. While Allen has him covered for TDs and Mahomes has less intercept, the first gap should be greater as Allen has had a number of TDs dropped or called back for largely inconsequential penalties (e.g. illegal formations or illegal shifts), whilst Mahomes has had considerable luck with dropped picks (if I'm not mistaken it's 16 as of this week, and mind you these aren't 'interceptable passes', these are passes which outright should've been caught). 

Adding to this, Mahomes and Rodgers are no.1 and no.2 in the league in yards after the catch. Mahomes leads the league in yards period, so that's fair enough, while Rodgers has gotten over half his yards after the catch. Allen on the other hand sits at around 41% (pending MNF stats). Now of course a QB can generate YAC for a receiver by finding the most open guy and giving them a chance to run by hitting them in stride, but it can also just be a matter of just dumping it off to RBs and using screens effectively. Reality is it tends to rest somewhere in the middle and from watching Buffalo, while Daboll is very good at getting guys open in the endzone for eases tosses, their screens between the 20s tend to get blown up and Allen still seldom checks down - he just chooses the better option downfield.

Obviously we know about the incredible talent Kansas City has on offense and in particular having arguably 2 top 5 receiving threats in the league on the one offense, but people often say it's remarkable what Rodgers is doing without much talent around him. I would tend to disagree - I think it's a pretty good offense. He gets hit less than any other QB in the league, now part of this is on him being able to get the ball out quick and manage the pocket, but when healthy that OL is among the best units in the league without a doubt. Buffalo's I'd say is middling, pretty good in pass-pro and not great in run blocking. From the most recent stats I've seen though, Allen is the most effective QB at evading pressure which definitely makes the Bills OL look a bit better than it is. In terms of weapons, I'd say they're more or less even, with Green Bay having the better run game and the Bills receiving group being marginally better (given John Brown's missed most of the year). So I don't think what Rodgers is accomplishing is necessarily any more remarkable than what Allen is.

 

The other factor which I'd have in Buffalo's favor is the schedule they've played (note: strength of schedule in the 4th column). They've played one of the hardest schedules in the league, let alone of any playoff team with an SOS of 5.17. Meanwhile Green Bay and Kansas City have played two of the easiest schedules in the league (with Green Bay having the easiest). Another poster above has pointed out Rodgers has 30 TDs to 1 pick against teams with 10 or more losses. Obviously you can only beat what's in front of you, but it would be disingenuous to suggest that Green Bay having a relative cakewalk of a schedule hasn't contributed to Rodgers' success this year. Several of Allen's wins, particularly earlier in the year, were basically him dragging the team to victory against high caliber opponents solely off the back of his arm and legs. Rodgers on the other hand has beat up on the league's worst teams and defenses, with few performances you'd look at and say 'wow, Rodgers really won them that game'. 

So while Allen may not have the counting numbers of Rodgers and he's had a few more turnovers attributed to him than both Rodgers and Mahomes, just based on the eye test and just how much of the offense is predicated specifically on the QB's particular skillset and how much they have to do for the offense to be functional and win games, I think the case for Allen is certainly there to be made as MVP. I have him and Rodgers neck and neck personally, though just because of how hard the Bills schedule has been, I'd lean Allen. 

Edited December 29, 2020 by WFLukic

[SkippyX]

I don't think Allen is far back at all even if I think the other two are going to get most of the votes.

The deciding factor on Allen at the moment might be the KC - Buffalo game were Allen had about 100 less total yards and a pick in a loss.

 

If he knocks out a tough Miami D with a huge game next week that could make this very interesting.

If Mahomes does not play or barely plays and Rpdgers struggles in Chicago then it gets even closer.

I would also dig into the Bills SoV compared to KC since the teams they lost to are 32-13 so far.

 

[SkippyX]

A couple stat notes for Rodgers:

He's at 119.4 passer rating right now.

• Only 2 guys ever put up a higher number and one of them was named Rodgers.
• He has also stretched his lead over Mahomes in rating to 11.2 (Watson is #2 now at 112.1 to Mahomes at 108.2)

He's at 44 passing TDs

• Only 7 guys have put up 45+ passing TDs and one of them was named Rodgers.

[Jakuvious]

2 hours ago, SkippyX said:

If the Vikings and 49ers lose on Sunday then Rodgers will have 30 TDs to 1 pick against 10+ loss teams.

• (Lions x2, Jags, Texans, Falcons, Eagles, Panthers, 49ers, Vikings x2)
• That is 7 out of 16 up to 10 out of 16 games.
• Saints, Bucs, Titans, Colts, Bears x2 are the other 6 games ( 3-2 in those games + Bears this week)

Mahomes has 20 TDs to 1 pick against 10 loss teams if the Patriots lose on Sunday.

• (Broncos x2, Texans, Chargers, Falcons, Panthers, Jets, Patriots, Chargers)
• That's 7 of 16 up to 9 of 16 if the Patriots lose on Sunday and Mahomes plays on Sunday)
• Ravens, Bills, Raiders x2, Bucs, Dolphins, Saints are the other 7 games (6-1 in those games)

Do those 10 extra TDs against garbage really earn Rodgers the MVP award?

 

Josh Allen will be 13 TDs to 2 picks against 10+ loss teams if the Patriots and 49ers lose on Sunday.

 

For reference,

50 TD Tom Brady in 2007 had 8 TDs and 4 picks against 10+ loss teams (Dolphins x2, Jets x2, Ravens)

55 TD Manning in 2013 had 17 TDs and 4 picks against 10+ loss teams (Raiders x2, DC, Jags, Texans)

In simple terms? Yeah, kinda. When the numbers are close enough, people will look towards circumstance, supporting cast, etc. But they've reached the point where the numbers aren't close enough. Rodgers leads in basically everything but yards. You can find things that can lean towards Mahomes: he's been pressured about twice as often, he has generally had a somewhat tougher schedule, he has higher air yards per attempt and lower YAC per attempt, more game winning drives. But those are all minor things when Rodgers leads by 7 TDs, 10+ passer rating points, fewer INTs and fumbles, he now leads the higher scoring offense, etc. Rodgers leads in the obvious ways, so there's just no real reason to dive that deep. Maybe if it's all pooled together, you could stretch it to lean Mahomes, but the award has rarely been that complicated. It has never been won on who had the lesser supporting cast or who had a harder time throwing for all those TDs. Your vast majority of MVPs have, honestly, had things stacked in their favor, and that's fine. It's better it go to the obvious choice in most cases. And frankly, I think it's more likely to get something stupidly wrong by overthinking it anyway. Overthinking it is how you get votes for Dak Prescott or Bobby Wagner.

[Nightime]

2 hours ago, WFLukic said:

Full disclosure, I'm not a Buffalo fan. I'm a Denver fan but have Allen as my QB in one of the fantasy leagues on this site (so while this may come across as biased, it's more I like him as a player because he's good rather than me exaggerating his talent because I like the team he's on). 

Having watched Allen and Mahomes every week this year, Allen has been better. While Allen has him covered for TDs and Mahomes has less intercept, the first gap should be greater as Allen has had a number of TDs dropped or called back for largely inconsequential penalties (e.g. illegal formations or illegal shifts), whilst Mahomes has had considerable luck with dropped picks (if I'm not mistaken it's 16 as of this week, and mind you these aren't 'interceptable passes', these are passes which outright should've been caught). 

Adding to this, Mahomes and Rodgers are no.1 and no.2 in the league in yards after the catch. Mahomes leads the league in yards period, so that's fair enough, while Rodgers has gotten over half his yards after the catch. Allen on the other hand sits at around 41% (pending MNF stats). Now of course a QB can generate YAC for a receiver by finding the most open guy and giving them a chance to run by hitting them in stride, but it can also just be a matter of just dumping it off to RBs and using screens effectively. Reality is it tends to rest somewhere in the middle and from watching Buffalo, while Daboll is very good at getting guys open in the endzone for eases tosses, their screens between the 20s tend to get blown up and Allen still seldom checks down - he just chooses the better option downfield.

Obviously we know about the incredible talent Kansas City has on offense and in particular having arguably 2 top 5 receiving threats in the league on the one offense, but people often say it's remarkable what Rodgers is doing without much talent around him. I would tend to disagree - I think it's a pretty good offense. He gets hit less than any other QB in the league, now part of this is on him being able to get the ball out quick and manage the pocket, but when healthy that OL is among the best units in the league without a doubt. Buffalo's I'd say is middling, pretty good in pass-pro and not great in run blocking. From the most recent stats I've seen though, Allen is the most effective QB at evading pressure which definitely makes the Bills OL look a bit better than it is. In terms of weapons, I'd say they're more or less even, with Green Bay having the better run game and the Bills receiving group being marginally better (given John Brown's missed most of the year). So I don't think what Rodgers is accomplishing is necessarily any more remarkable than what Allen is.

 

The other factor which I'd have in Buffalo's favor is the schedule they've played (note: strength of schedule in the 4th column). They've played one of the hardest schedules in the league, let alone of any playoff team with an SOS of 5.17. Meanwhile Green Bay and Kansas City have played two of the easiest schedules in the league (with Green Bay having the easiest). Another poster above has pointed out Rodgers has 30 TDs to 1 pick against teams with 10 or more losses. Obviously you can only beat what's in front of you, but it would be disingenuous to suggest that Green Bay having a relative cakewalk of a schedule hasn't contributed to Rodgers' success this year. Several of Allen's wins, particularly earlier in the year, were basically him dragging the team to victory against high caliber opponents solely off the back of his arm and legs. Rodgers on the other hand has beat up on the league's worst teams and defenses, with few performances you'd look at and say 'wow, Rodgers really won them that game'. 

So while Allen may not have the counting numbers of Rodgers and he's had a few more turnovers attributed to him than both Rodgers and Mahomes, just based on the eye test and just how much of the offense is predicated specifically on the QB's particular skillset and how much they have to do for the offense to be functional and win games, I think the case for Allen is certainly there to be made as MVP. I have him and Rodgers neck and neck personally, though just because of how hard the Bills schedule has been, I'd lean Allen. 

So we’re taking into account dropped touchdowns now? Mahomes has had plenty of those as well, atleast 7 on the season. 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Nightime

[Nightime]

Rodgers is going to get it. Mahomes needed a good game against Atlanta to lock it up. If Rodgers tosses 4 picks and no touchdowns, and Allen has some crazy 6 TD performance, then Allen gets it

Mahomes chance relies on Rodgers playing horribly against Chicago (and likely losing the top NFC seed) and Josh Allen not totally erupting against the Dolphins at home. 

[rthom348]

13 hours ago, Rodjahs12 said:

lol there’s legitimately zero chance you’re telling me that Green Bay has a better overall team than KC before Rodgers caught Mahomes in this race. You’re simply saying this now to suit your narrative 

Yeah I walked him straight into that. He happily opened that door 🤷

[rthom348]

19 hours ago, Kirill said:

If they dock Mahomes cause he sits out the final week thats such BS. Don't dock the guy cause he locked in the bye week before the final week and earned his guys an extra week off.

They want to give it to Aaron Rodgers so bad.

You're very invested in this award

[bigbadbuff]

3 hours ago, Nightime said:

Rodgers is going to get it. Mahomes needed a good game against Atlanta to lock it up. If Rodgers tosses 4 picks and no touchdowns, and Allen has some crazy 6 TD performance, then Allen gets it

Mahomes chance relies on Rodgers playing horribly against Chicago (and likely losing the top NFC seed) and Josh Allen not totally erupting against the Dolphins at home. 

Well Josh Allen is the Dolphins daddy so i fully expect him to erupt lol. 
 

I think he has 3 AFC player of the week wins in 4 games against Miami in his career.

[rthom348]

18 hours ago, Kirill said:

The picks don't matter when you have Mahomes cause your team knows they're still going to score again and win so they keep playing hard. This is what it means by Most Valuable Player. It's the effect you have on your team as it contributes to winning football games. It was a close ish race but Mahomes won it with the better record. Incredible season getting us 15 wins with this offensive line and one of the toughest schedules in the league. Rodgers did well not throwing many picks but that's Mahomes award.

 

 

So this is basically just one of those clichés, "They just want it more." 

You think Mahomes makes grown men play harder than Rodgers? Why? What do you see or hear to back that up? Or is it just a preconceived, biased notion which was spawned by fanboy tendencies?

They don't care about picks because, with a QB like Mahomes, the players know they'll still score. 

Ok...well the Packers have scored more than the chiefs have. So I'm going to use your logic to suggest grown men must be playing harder for Rodgers then. They're scoring more, so they're playing much harder!

Its not Mahomes' award to lose. It was both of theirs to win. Rodgers has staked a greater claim. Sorry. Get over it. Mahomes will get it next year. Shoot, he may still get it this year. For as much as you think "they" want to give it to Rodgers, take a closer look at how much support Mahomes gets from "them." Mahomes and the Chiefs can do no wrong in the media.

[incognito_man]

7 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

he has generally had a somewhat tougher schedule

I keep seeing this, but I don't understand why.

According to DVOA GB has faced the 23rd most difficult schedule (through week 15) compared to KC's 27th ranked. GB had yet to face the 13th most difficult schedule (TEN, CHI) while KC faced the 29th most difficult schedule (ATL, LAC). I know this accounts for overall opponent quality and not just defenses faced, so I looked quickly at opponent passer rating against:

Mahomes has faced an average defense that allows a 94.0 passer rating while Rodgers has faced a defense that allows an average of 98.8. So Mahomes has faced slightly better pass defenses. However, Rodgers has, on average, outperformed the allowed passer rating by 19.0 per game while Mahomes has 14.8 (which effectively erases the delta). 

Bottom line: schedule is a complete wash just like support cast.