MVP Watch FINAL RANKINGS (Version 17.0)

[soflbillsfan]

8 hours ago, WFLukic said:

Full disclosure, I'm not a Buffalo fan. I'm a Denver fan but have Allen as my QB in one of the fantasy leagues on this site (so while this may come across as biased, it's more I like him as a player because he's good rather than me exaggerating his talent because I like the team he's on). 

Having watched Allen and Mahomes every week this year, Allen has been better. While Allen has him covered for TDs and Mahomes has less intercept, the first gap should be greater as Allen has had a number of TDs dropped or called back for largely inconsequential penalties (e.g. illegal formations or illegal shifts), whilst Mahomes has had considerable luck with dropped picks (if I'm not mistaken it's 16 as of this week, and mind you these aren't 'interceptable passes', these are passes which outright should've been caught). 

Adding to this, Mahomes and Rodgers are no.1 and no.2 in the league in yards after the catch. Mahomes leads the league in yards period, so that's fair enough, while Rodgers has gotten over half his yards after the catch. Allen on the other hand sits at around 41% (pending MNF stats). Now of course a QB can generate YAC for a receiver by finding the most open guy and giving them a chance to run by hitting them in stride, but it can also just be a matter of just dumping it off to RBs and using screens effectively. Reality is it tends to rest somewhere in the middle and from watching Buffalo, while Daboll is very good at getting guys open in the endzone for eases tosses, their screens between the 20s tend to get blown up and Allen still seldom checks down - he just chooses the better option downfield.

Obviously we know about the incredible talent Kansas City has on offense and in particular having arguably 2 top 5 receiving threats in the league on the one offense, but people often say it's remarkable what Rodgers is doing without much talent around him. I would tend to disagree - I think it's a pretty good offense. He gets hit less than any other QB in the league, now part of this is on him being able to get the ball out quick and manage the pocket, but when healthy that OL is among the best units in the league without a doubt. Buffalo's I'd say is middling, pretty good in pass-pro and not great in run blocking. From the most recent stats I've seen though, Allen is the most effective QB at evading pressure which definitely makes the Bills OL look a bit better than it is. In terms of weapons, I'd say they're more or less even, with Green Bay having the better run game and the Bills receiving group being marginally better (given John Brown's missed most of the year). So I don't think what Rodgers is accomplishing is necessarily any more remarkable than what Allen is.

 

The other factor which I'd have in Buffalo's favor is the schedule they've played (note: strength of schedule in the 4th column). They've played one of the hardest schedules in the league, let alone of any playoff team with an SOS of 5.17. Meanwhile Green Bay and Kansas City have played two of the easiest schedules in the league (with Green Bay having the easiest). Another poster above has pointed out Rodgers has 30 TDs to 1 pick against teams with 10 or more losses. Obviously you can only beat what's in front of you, but it would be disingenuous to suggest that Green Bay having a relative cakewalk of a schedule hasn't contributed to Rodgers' success this year. Several of Allen's wins, particularly earlier in the year, were basically him dragging the team to victory against high caliber opponents solely off the back of his arm and legs. Rodgers on the other hand has beat up on the league's worst teams and defenses, with few performances you'd look at and say 'wow, Rodgers really won them that game'. 

So while Allen may not have the counting numbers of Rodgers and he's had a few more turnovers attributed to him than both Rodgers and Mahomes, just based on the eye test and just how much of the offense is predicated specifically on the QB's particular skillset and how much they have to do for the offense to be functional and win games, I think the case for Allen is certainly there to be made as MVP. I have him and Rodgers neck and neck personally, though just because of how hard the Bills schedule has been, I'd lean Allen. 

I enjoyed the read and there are things I definitely agree on especially strength of schedule and agree to an extent. The one thing you have to look at is even though the sos is higher people will start to argue about the rankings of defenses that these qbs faced as well which chases you further down the rabbit hole. Allen did face 5 of the top 10 passing defenses in the league if you want to include to your argument. I think all 3 of these qbs deserve it and each one has an argument. It is unfortunate that all 3 are going off as they would have likely won it every other year with these stats. It will be fun to see who wins it as they have all great arguments. 

[The BILLievers]

Just comparing Mahomes vs Allen this year : 

• Mahomes : 4,740 yards, 40 Total TDs / 6 INTs, 66.3 completion %, 108.2 passer rating
• Allen :   4,320 yards, 43 Total TDs / 9 INTs, 69.1 completion %, 106.4 passer rating

He's not going to win it but Allen really is not far off from the top - I'm sure he'll get a vote or two imo.

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by The BILLievers

[Nightime]

9 minutes ago, The BILLievers said:

Just comparing Mahomes vs Allen this year : 

• Mahomes : 4,740 yards, 40 Total TDs / 6 INTs, 66.3 completion %, 108.2 passer rating
• Allen :   4,320 yards, 43 Total TDs / 9 INTs, 69.1 completion %, 106.4 passer rating

He's not going to win it but Allen really is not far off from the top - I'm sure he'll get a vote or two imo.

 

They are battling for 2nd team all pro at this point

Mahomes already has 5000 total yards and 40 touchdowns with a 14-1 record, with 8 turnovers. Allen has 4700 total yards and 43 touchdowns with 15 turnovers. Allen will have some eye popping stats after week 17, but will they overlook the record and head to head result?

[The BILLievers]

Yeah it'll be tight. Stinks for Allen cause record wise they never should've lost on that hail mary and they'd be 1 game worse than KC but I agree. 

Sucks as a Bills/ Josh Allen fan because if Josh put up this season last year, he'd be MVP. Just so happens that there are (3) amazing QB seasons this year. 

[Shanedorf]

50 minutes ago, The BILLievers said:

Sucks as a Bills/ Josh Allen fan

nah, Allen is Allen and you get to enjoy his ascending play regardless of what some voters vote in a few weeks.
You have a franchise QB, a talented team and a HC/GM combo that will keep the Bills dominant for awhile.
Enjoy it and don't put too much stock in these awards.

[Jakuvious]

2 hours ago, incognito_man said:

I keep seeing this, but I don't understand why.

According to DVOA GB has faced the 23rd most difficult schedule (through week 15) compared to KC's 27th ranked. GB had yet to face the 13th most difficult schedule (TEN, CHI) while KC faced the 29th most difficult schedule (ATL, LAC). I know this accounts for overall opponent quality and not just defenses faced, so I looked quickly at opponent passer rating against:

Mahomes has faced an average defense that allows a 94.0 passer rating while Rodgers has faced a defense that allows an average of 98.8. So Mahomes has faced slightly better pass defenses. However, Rodgers has, on average, outperformed the allowed passer rating by 19.0 per game while Mahomes has 14.8 (which effectively erases the delta). 

Bottom line: schedule is a complete wash just like support cast.

Most people refer to record, not DVOA, when they refer to strength of schedule. It's just kind of the default, there.

Both teams played the same NFC division, in the South. The divisions are only 1 win off of each other, and that's the difference between Vegas and Chicago. Both teams also played Houston. So really the difference in schedules more or less comes down to 5 games, where Green Bay played Philadelphia, San Francisco, Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Jacksonville, while KC played Buffalo, Miami, NYJ, New England, and Baltimore. There's 3 quality teams in that list for KC. Only 2 for Green Bay. Buffalo and Miami are about a wash with Indy and Tennessee. Jacksonville sucks at about the same level as the Jets. So it comes down to New England and Baltimore being a tougher slate than San Fran and Philly. Like I said, it's only somewhat tougher, not much tougher. Those 5 games also include two top 5 scoring defenses while the Packers never had to play a single top 5 scoring D. Green Bay got 5 games against bottom 5 scoring defenses, KC got 2.

[incognito_man]

14 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

Most people refer to record, not DVOA, when they refer to strength of schedule. It's just kind of the default, there.

Both teams played the same NFC division, in the South. The divisions are only 1 win off of each other, and that's the difference between Vegas and Chicago. Both teams also played Houston. So really the difference in schedules more or less comes down to 5 games, where Green Bay played Philadelphia, San Francisco, Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Jacksonville, while KC played Buffalo, Miami, NYJ, New England, and Baltimore. There's 3 quality teams in that list for KC. Only 2 for Green Bay. Buffalo and Miami are about a wash with Indy and Tennessee. Jacksonville sucks at about the same level as the Jets. So it comes down to New England and Baltimore being a tougher slate than San Fran and Philly. Like I said, it's only somewhat tougher, not much tougher. Those 5 games also include two top 5 scoring defenses while the Packers never had to play a single top 5 scoring D. Green Bay got 5 games against bottom 5 scoring defenses, KC got 2.

I don't know what else to say other than "DVOA accounts for your paragraph of justification". And I just ran those numbers as well:

Average Defense DVOA faced by Mahomes: 1.0%

Average Defense DVOA faced by Rodgers: 1.1%

It's an absolute wash.

[Les Punting]

10 hours ago, WFLukic said:

So while Allen may not have the counting numbers of Rodgers and he's had a few more turnovers attributed to him than both Rodgers and Mahomes .......

Whoa, not so fast. A few? Allen has 15 total turnovers. Rodgers has 7, Mahomes has 8. That's considerably more than a few. How can Allen be the MVP over Rodgers or Mahomes with such a pronounced disparity in ball security? 

 

[Kirill]

 

[incognito_man]

1 minute ago, Kirill said:

 

Rodgers had 8 for 400 some yards

[DannyB]

46 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

48 minutes ago, Kirill said:

 

Rodgers had 8 for 400 some yards

I despise stats like this that are in a complete vacuum, devoid of any context. Is 7 or 8 a huge number? Is that insanely above average for this year? Is that the most of any quarterback over the past 10 years? Or are there five other QBs with 7, and three more with 8?

There needs to be a goddamn rule in this forum where you can only throw stats like that out if you include the full context. All of those things: Number of passes dropped, dropped interceptions, etc.

It also seems shady to sandwich nullified due to penalty in there with drops. What if the infraction is the only reason you were able to complete the pass? Oh, you threw a TD where your tackle dragged down a pass rusher from behind via his facemask, and your receiver double-arm shoved the CB into the ground so that he could reach up and catch the pass, and you got flagged for those? Oh yeah, why don't you go ahead and add it to that group of ghost statistics.

Edited December 29, 2020 by DannyB

[BayRaider]

 

We all know Rodgers is having a historic season, but Watson and Brady are being so slept on it’s unbelievable. Watson is being slept on because of his record but he’s putting one of the better QB seasons we have seen in modern history. Same with Brady. All of us knew Bradys arm was just fine, he’s having one of the best seasons of his entire career with his arm looking very sharp, including crisp and lasers on deep balls. 
 

Watson is firmly my 4th best QB in the league and Brady is 5th. Who you gonna put over Brady? Allen? Give me another year, he’s 6-8. Lamar? No. Tannehil? No. 
 

Brady is a Top 5 QB in the NFL. Still. Not just Top 5 QB season, but he’s still a Top 5 QB in general. And many people on the forum owe him an “I was wrong”. 
 

And Rodgers has also proven he is still a Top 2-3 QB in the NFL as well. Rodgers is putting on a season for the ages, second best of his career, and looks like he’s 28 out there again. 
 

Props to both men. 
 

(Gonna post this in both the Brady and MVP thread as it’s relevant to both Rodgers and Brady). 

[bigbadbuff]

7 hours ago, Kirill said:

 

Josh Allen literally had 3 last night alone. Unless that stat means the team didn’t end up scoring a touchdown after the drop/penalty

[Kmart128]

16 hours ago, Kirill said:

 

Allen had 5 the past 2 weeks alone... 2 called back against Broncos. 2 were dropped wide open against Patriots. And another was called back due to a late timeout whistle.

[ET80]

9 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Watson is being slept on because of his record but he’s putting one of the better QB seasons we have seen in modern history.

Consider his supporting cast, too. He's doing this with guys like Keke Coutee, Chad Hansen, Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller - not exactly Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce or Davante Adams. The Texans are also dead last in rushing too, so everyone knows it's on Watson to create an offense.