Woz Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 @lavar703 - given how the offense had been performing up to that point, why do you think they would have converted a 4th and 6? Based on this http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/08/1-play-touchdown-probability.html, on 4th and 6, the odds of converting into a TD are about 3% or so. Even if you use the 1st-3rd down line (because teams are kicking field goals), it is still about a 20-25% chance of scoring. So, more likely than not, they come out of that drive 20-0. Yes, Arizona is now backed up deep, so maybe they don't run their next three plays (Kenyon Drake up the middle for 3 yards, slant to Fitzgerald for 4 yards, and the deep out to Hopkins that sealed the game). But even if they don't convert, Washington is still down three scores. That one pass to Hopkins was underappreciated game killer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Having said that, I again think they should have gone for it, if nothing else to create an "us vs. the world" mindset. Yeah, they probably would have come up short, but Rivera could have said, this one's on me guys. And had the players try to "convince" him otherwise, building confidence in themselves. The game was long lost, but I agree that by electing to kick the field goal did the team no long term favors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptownskinsfan Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Woz said: Having said that, I again think they should have gone for it, if nothing else to create an "us vs. the world" mindset. Yeah, they probably would have come up short, but Rivera could have said, this one's on me guys. And had the players try to "convince" him otherwise, building confidence in themselves. The game was long lost, but I agree that by electing to kick the field goal did the team no long term favors. It just smacked of "lets not get shut out." We always talk about the players needing to show the coaches something. Well, Rivera needed to show the players something, and he didn't. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTTRDynasty Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Exactly what I thought his reasoning would be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptownskinsfan Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptownskinsfan Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Dammit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptownskinsfan Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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offbyone Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Rivera made a bad call, but honestly guys, considering how we were playing, I doubt we convert. So, you saw the running game work later in the game and some passing. Just says to me they need to push the defense out more. When they play the box the running game fails. So, we need to throw the deep ball early. Even if it is just over throwing guys running down the field to push them off the ball. I understand turner is trying these short game to help haskins, but the best way he can help haskins is make the defense honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lavar703 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 At least the Redskins didn’t lose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Woz said: Just like there's no guarantee not converting doesn't suck the life out of the team as well. Again, I would have rather they had gone for it there as they had little to lose. However, it would not have mattered in the greater scheme of the things. They got beat. Badly. While I tend to agree, I think we beat ourselves more than Arizona helped. We gifted them 17 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 26 minutes ago, lavar703 said: At least the Redskins didn’t lose They are undefeated this season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e16bball Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 59 minutes ago, Woz said: @lavar703 - given how the offense had been performing up to that point, why do you think they would have converted a 4th and 6? Based on this http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/08/1-play-touchdown-probability.html, on 4th and 6, the odds of converting into a TD are about 3% or so. Even if you use the 1st-3rd down line (because teams are kicking field goals), it is still about a 20-25% chance of scoring. So, more likely than not, they come out of that drive 20-0. Yes, Arizona is now backed up deep, so maybe they don't run their next three plays (Kenyon Drake up the middle for 3 yards, slant to Fitzgerald for 4 yards, and the deep out to Hopkins that sealed the game). But even if they don't convert, Washington is still down three scores. That one pass to Hopkins was underappreciated game killer. That’s kind of misleading though, because typically teams don’t go for it on 4th and goal from the 6. Typically they kick FGs, unless in a desperation situation. In my view, down 20 in the late 3rd qualifies as a desperation situation. To me, it’s just a flaw in the usefulness of the metric. If it showed us the percentage of successful attempts for a TD, that would be useful. But as constituted, it’s basically just telling us what we already know, which is that the vast majority of time, teams opt for a FG on 4th and goal from the 6. It’s not particularly instructive about how likely we were to be successful in an attempt to do something else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said: While I tend to agree, I think we beat ourselves more than Arizona helped. We gifted them 17 points. Oh absolutely. They put themselves deep in the hole, and even when the defense tried to help out (Collins' INT), they gave it right back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 52 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said: Exactly what I thought his reasoning would be. As much as I want to see fight until 00:00, I think this was the right call. We weren't winning this game at that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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