Let's do this....Wilson vs Mahomes

[ET80]

9 minutes ago, Saint_James said:

"Irrelevant" ??

That's quite a word to use about the guy.  Why even have this discussion if we're going to take that approach?  I thought we were trying to compare QB's, not just say that best stats are all that matter?

Poorly worded on my part - the stats/records you listed will become irrelevant. Not the guy.

11 minutes ago, Saint_James said:

Put Wilson on the Chiefs team right now and he doesn't thrive?

Likewise - put Mahomes on the Seahawks with DK Metcalf and a dependable run game? He thrives.

[Archimedes]

2 hours ago, Saint_James said:

Are you JUST looking at run game or have you correlated a bad defense as a slight against Russel?   Just asking...

In year 5 for Russ, so we’re talking entering his prime, he still had a top 5 defense, but it was the first year he didn’t have the support of a strong run game, and his efficiency crept down. In year 6, the defense was still top 10, but again, the running game was weak, and his efficiency was still down. It was still good in those years, but it wasn’t up to his usual standards.

I have theories as to why, but he seems to be a player who gives you diminishing returns if you ask him to throw too much, and if he doesn’t have a running game to lean on as well.

[evilflamingo]

2 hours ago, Saint_James said:

Wow you don't say?  I mean Seattle only has the historically worst defense we've ever seen (coming from a Saints fan, that says a lot).   Of course Wilson has to air it out, he's constantly playing from behind.  Their defense cannot keep ANY lead, no matter how large or small.   Seriously I'm not exaggerating, at this pace they will be the worst defense in the history of the NFL bar none. 

Teams matter.  Why don't you go back and see what happens when they've given this man a good team to work with?  Oh look, they won a Super Bowl and lost another thanks to the worst playcalling choke of all time, but I digress. 

What is with Wilson fanbois and these hysterical hyperboles? Their defense is tied #22 in scoring, #5 vs rush, #31 vs pass, #7 in sacks, #12 in takeaways this season and yet they are on pace to be the worst defense of all time. How do you even convince yourself of this crap? And since this is a comparison thread, how did Mahomes do when he played with a similar defense in 2018? Did he also struggle or did he put up one of the greatest QB seasons ever?

And you're not exactly refuting my point by saying he was successful with and all-time defense and elite running game. So was Mark Sanchez who got the AFCC in 2010 and Trent Dilfer* who won a SB with another all-time defense* and Wilson is as much to blame for the choke as the playcall.

As for the **** ton of stats you posted. I'm not going to comment on all of it but a lot of it seems wrong. For example and to keep it within the context of this thread, Mahomes Y/A average is 8.6 for his first three years, his TD% is 6.9, INT% is 1.6. So yeah, anything with efficiency, Mahomes does better by a wide margin.

Bulk stats then, well despite playing in only 31 regular season games to Wilson's 48 Mahomes almost equals him in yardage (9412 vs 9950 in reg season, 10 886 vs 11 770 inc playoffs) and actually manages to beat him in both reg season and post season TDs (76+13 vs 72+12). And again that is with Mahomes sitting out almost all of 2017 and being hobbled by a bum knee in 2019. Oh and his career TD to INT ratio is  5.35, almost twice as good as Wilson's number you posted. 

 

* Not saying Wilson=Sanchez and Dilfer. Also not not saying that the Seahawks defense were as good as the Ravens defense. 

Edited December 8, 2020 by evilflamingo

[JohnCena]

1 minute ago, ET80 said:

Likewise - put Mahomes on the Seahawks with DK Metcalf and a dependable run game? He thrives.

And he doesn't have 15 turnovers as well that's the biggest thing that just takes Russ out of the best QB conversation you can't turn the ball over 15 times, I believe about 13 times in the last 6/7 games and expect to be considered on the same level as a guy who's turned it over about 25 times in the past 3 years and has about 20 more touchdown than you in 4 less games. That's just the regular season also I haven't brought up the 5-1 playoff record in that time and the 13-2 TD:INT ratio there. 

I'm the biggest Tom Brady fan there is but sometimes you just gotta keep it real. I was even arguing with my friends last year before the playoffs started when everyone was on the Lamar hype train that he is nowhere near the same level as Mahomes. There's really no argument that can be made about who's been the best QB for the past 3 years. 

[RandyMossIsBoss]

51 minutes ago, ET80 said:

 

Likewise - put Mahomes on the Seahawks with DK Metcalf and a dependable run game? He thrives.

I mean sure, he’s an elite QB, he will thrive in any decent situation, but you think he’s putting up similar numbers as in KC or doing much better than Wilson if he was in Seattle?

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 hour ago, Archimedes said:

In year 5 for Russ, so we’re talking entering his prime, he still had a top 5 defense, but it was the first year he didn’t have the support of a strong run game, and his efficiency crept down. In year 6, the defense was still top 10, but again, the running game was weak, and his efficiency was still down. It was still good in those years, but it wasn’t up to his usual standards.

I have theories as to why, but he seems to be a player who gives you diminishing returns if you ask him to throw too much, and if he doesn’t have a running game to lean on as well.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsRu00.htm

Define "diminishing returns". Wins? Scoring? Production?

[Saint_James]

Quote

How do you even convince yourself of this crap?

I'm not?  Everyone that tracks stats, EVERY source, says this is the worst defense we've ever seen in history.  Not sure what metrics you're going by, but stop cherry picking.   They cannot stop the pass, they cannot stop you from scoring, and they give up OIL TANKERS full of yards a game.   It's horrible horrible historically horrible defense.

Yeah yeah I know,  "but they are #5 in defense against left-handed kickers in games outside" or some crap, please, none of those stats matters.  If I have to prove to you how bad this defense is, it's because you just aren't paying attention and don't know. 

Quote

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Posted 51 minutes ago (edited)

What is with Wilson fanbois and these hysterical hyperboles?

 

Not a fanboi by any means and dare you to show hyperbole in my statement.  

[Saint_James]

1 hour ago, JohnCena said:

And he doesn't have 15 turnovers as well that's the biggest thing that just takes Russ out of the best QB conversation you can't turn the ball over 15 times, I believe about 13 times in the last 6/7 games and expect to be considered on the same level as a guy who's turned it over about 25 times in the past 3 years and has about 20 more touchdown than you in 4 less games.

 When you are forced to throw your way into and back into every game, you are going to have turnovers.   Their defense cannot make a stop, so every game is basically played as a shootout.  Look at their average margin of victory, it's pathetic. 

He's not like a Wentz who's throwing them OUT of games with turnovers and lost fumbles.  Wilson is forced to throw constantly to keep them IN games.

 

[Archimedes]

23 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

I mean sure, he’s an elite QB, he will thrive in any decent situation, but you think he’s putting up similar numbers as in KC or doing much better than Wilson if he was in Seattle?

I think he would, yes.

[evilflamingo]

5 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsRu00.htm

Define "diminishing returns". Wins? Scoring? Production?

Taking this season as an example and doing a split between games with 37+ attempts (6 games) and 36 or fewer attempts (6 games). Here's what happens: 

37+: 66.2 % completion (164/248), 15 TD, 8 INT, 4 fumbles lost, 95.5 QB rating, 2-4 record. 

-36: 75% completion (141/188), 17 TD, 3 INT, 0 fumbles lost, 118.5 QB rating, 6-0 record.

 So the main differences are -9 in completion %, a 4.4 drop in TD to turnover ratio, a 23 point drop in QB rating and a whole lotta losses. Other than that, nothing much. 

 

[ThatJaxxenGuy]

Russ is quickly becoming overrated. He’s really good and probably squeaks into the Hall of Fame, but lately he’s been turning the ball over like a rookie. 

Let Russ cook was fun but let’s not act like he’s been great the second half of the season.

[Archimedes]

14 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsRu00.htm

Define "diminishing returns". Wins? Scoring? Production?

Efficiency. His two worst seasons efficiency wise were in ‘16 and ‘17 when de didn’t have the running game and was throwing more. This year, after Carson got hurt, he had some of his least efficient games. This past week against the Giants they abandoned the run and his efficiency declined.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 minute ago, evilflamingo said:

Taking this season as an example and doing a split between games with 37+ attempts (6 games) and 36 or fewer attempts (6 games). Here's what happens: 

37+: 66.2 % completion (164/248), 15 TD, 8 INT, 4 fumbles lost, 95.5 QB rating, 2-4 record. 

-36: 75% completion (141/188), 17 TD, 3 INT, 0 fumbles lost, 118.5 QB rating, 6-0 record.

 So the main differences are -9 in completion %, a 4.4 drop in TD to turnover ratio, a 23 point drop in QB rating and a whole lotta losses. Other than that, nothing much. 

This isn't the only season he's been asked to do a lot. Go back to 2016 and 2017 if you want to examine those as well.

That being said, Russ this year has been terrible, especially the past few weeks. He started on fire, but then defenses slowly started taking away those shot plays, and it all culminated in the most recent loss to NYG where they just manned up and played 2 deep and Russell couldn't do anything.

This year is a statistical outlier compared to the rest of his career, so I feel it's a bit disingenuous to pretend like it's not.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

2 minutes ago, Archimedes said:

Efficiency. His two worst seasons efficiency wise were in ‘16 and ‘17 when de didn’t have the running game and was throwing more. This year, after Carson got hurt, he had some of his least efficient games. This past week against the Giants they abandoned the run and his efficiency declined.

Just out of curiosity, is it normal for a QB's efficiency to go down when asked to do more?

[Archimedes]

1 minute ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Just out of curiosity, is it normal for a QB's efficiency to go down when asked to do more?

Not for a truly elite QB no. Rodgers, Prime Brady, Prime Manning... The running game was a bonus for those guys, not a necessity. It’s not a necessity for Mahomes either, the guy Wilson fans want to keep comparing him to. 

There’s ample evidence it’s a necessity fro Wilson.