2021 NFL Draft Thread

[ovfd55]

7 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

We never could rely on Alex to sty healthy for an entire year, I mean I don’t think anything about that has changed other than can Alex recover or does he even want to go through this calf injury to play again?

I doubted if he wanted to play again before or would get back, I’m not doubting him now, but I’d totally understand if he retired after this year.

They can not treat this offseason like Alex is going to be able to play most of the games next year should he want to play next year.

To me it’s still all in Haskins’s hands. If he plays at least average, prepares well, acts professional and shows progress the rest of the year, they probably will retain him for at least one more season and not draft a QB. If he falls flat on him face, then they’ll be drafting a QB in April and trading or cutting Haskins.

I wouldn't be shocked if and only if Alex Retired if Cam is our QB next year. Also could see us in trade market for a QB to instead of draft since Coaches will feel like we're closer to making a run then rebuilding around a rookie QB,Someone like Stafford who already has said he doesn't know if he'll be back in Detriot next year.

IJust Don't feel these coaches draft a QB outside the Top 10 that they think will be starting by end of year.

[turtle28]

23 minutes ago, ovfd55 said:

I wouldn't be shocked if and only if Alex Retired if Cam is our QB next year. Also could see us in trade market for a QB to instead of draft since Coaches will feel like we're closer to making a run then rebuilding around a rookie QB,Someone like Stafford who already has said he doesn't know if he'll be back in Detriot next year.

IJust Don't feel these coaches draft a QB outside the Top 10 that they think will be starting by end of year.

Possibly 

[ripsean21]

So I know I’m very outspoken on going BPA and I personally believe if Zach Wilson is avalible whenever we’re selecting outside of Pitts being there I believe this guy on this roster with this coaching staff and just the players we already have can be an exceptional QB. Now if there’s a scenario where we select him and a Brevin Jordan with the explosiveness he brings to the TE position paired with Thomas man I think that’s a heck of a first two for a team that I think can compete with those two additions: I’ve had a feeling since watching Wilson last year I just feel like that guy would thrive here. I think he’s mentally everything you could ask for with a heck of a toolbox. I think he elevated BYU beyond their talent level.

[Thaiphoon]

19 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

There just isn't enough football talent spread out to make 24 schools work at the FBS level.  8 teams is about as good as we can make it- Power 5 champions, a Group of Five selection and two wild cards selected, all seeded by the committee.  And this is coming from a Georgia fan, who earlier today thought we would make a good playoff team now that we've got a legit QB under center.  Alabama playing Liberty, Oklahoma State, NC State or San Jose State doesn't do it for me.  Texas probably gets rolled as well.  

This works at the FCS level because the talent gaps aren't as wide, and your top schools aren't littered with NFL starters.  

I don't buy this explanation. Forgive my saying this, but this reeks of FBS/Power 5 bias and/or ignorance of FCS. There's also not a ton of talent spread across FCS (it's mostly concentrated in 3 conferences), but the 24 school playoffs works quite well. It's not D2. Quite a lot of FCS players are FBS talent who don't want to sit for two years.  @Woz just said that there are something like 45 bowl games now. You telling me out of 90 teams, you can't find 24 to have them actually do a playoff? I'm not buying what you're putting down here.

As for the suggestion that the top schools aren't littered with NFL starters? Hmm... that's pretty much akin to an NFL preseason game when they say "yeah, but he was going against the #2's". The obvious logical point missed there is that the player (usually a QB) is also working with his own #2s (so talent level the same) on his own team. So the talent level is the same for the playoffs regardless of FCA or FBS. The Top 24 teams in FBS produce NFL starter talent, correct? So then, what is the problem? Have them do a playoff. At the very minimum it should be a 16 team playoff, but a 24 allows the top 8 seeds to have a bye week.

• "Yeah but the very top of the P5 have NFL starters on their benches"

So? They can only play 11 at a time, right? You're always gonna get teams that are more stacked than others. NDSU is that way right now in FCS. And even with that, I'd still want the expanded playoffs.

Going 8 teams is too small a playoff IMHO. The only thing holding FBS back from a true playoff of 16 or 24 teams is fear by the Top P5 teams that they will be one of the ones to have a bad game against a G5 team in the first or second round (if not seeded high enough). And that's no way to run a railroad.

[offbyone]

1 hour ago, ripsean21 said:

So I know I’m very outspoken on going BPA and I personally believe if Zach Wilson is avalible whenever we’re selecting outside of Pitts being there I believe this guy on this roster with this coaching staff and just the players we already have can be an exceptional QB. Now if there’s a scenario where we select him and a Brevin Jordan with the explosiveness he brings to the TE position paired with Thomas man I think that’s a heck of a first two for a team that I think can compete with those two additions: I’ve had a feeling since watching Wilson last year I just feel like that guy would thrive here. I think he’s mentally everything you could ask for with a heck of a toolbox. I think he elevated BYU beyond their talent level.

No chance Wilson is there when we are picking.  So unless you are willing to trade up for him, we aren't getting him.  Pitts is a long shot to be there as well.  

[e16bball]

10 hours ago, Thaiphoon said:

Then went on the road and beat the #2 seed. And then ended up meeting up with the #3 seed ( I know that @e16bball knows who that #3 ranked team was) in the semis.

My cousin played for the #2 seed (Furman). Obviously I was a diehard WM fan/student at the time, in my sophomore year. We road tripped to most of the away games that year. I knew a lot of guys on the Furman team through my cousin, who is more like an older brother. 

So just to recap, if Scott Beckler (Furman kicker) doesn’t get two FGs blocked like a dumb idiot, I would have been on my way to Greenville, SC, for a weekend partying with the Furman football team and all the hot southern belles that would have been either celebrating them or consoling based on how it turned out. And enjoying a classic win-win scenario, wherein either my team or my cousin would have been playing for a championship in Chattanooga.

Instead, JMU slogged down the field for a winning 1-yard rush (classic 2004 JMU) in the final minute and brought their slog show to Williamsburg, along with a god damn monsoon that was a perfect accoutrement for a team with monstrous maulers along the OL and no interest in concerning themselves with pesky newfangled ideas like “the forward pass.” Predictably, “4 yards and a cloud of dust” fared better in the rain and mud than the high-wire act conducted by the maestro Lang Campbell. 5 turnovers later, the greatest team in WM’s 327 year history was sadly sent home, and I was plunged into a dark despair.

Ahem...no, I don’t really remember anything about it 😂

[turtle28]

I agree with everything @Thaiphoon is putting down. I’m picking up all of it!

 

[turtle28]

As far as where the QBs go in the draft, I think it’s an enigma outside of Lawrence & Fields. They’ll go #1 & 2.

Wilson may go top 10, but it depends on team need IMO. Trey Lance is also an enigma, he has tons of talent and potential, but does that mean he goes top 15 just off of that? His resume isn’t exactly impressive & sadly he only played one game this year. He has more talent and potential than Carson Wentz but he doesn’t have Carson’s resume & experience.

Will Trask & Mac Jones work their way up by not only continuing to play well in the hardest conference in the country but also proving in workouts/combine etc that they are more than what people perceive they are?

That’s entirely possible.

I so wish that BYU was playing a tougher schedule, Wilson definitely has all the tools as @ripsean21 said but he leaves me wanting to see more from him to evaluate every single time he plays and his game vs Costal Carolina was as disappointing as I was after watching Fields struggle with pressure vs Indiana.

My feeling is that both Wilson & Lance are sit and watch candidates as rookies but as well all know, they could become starters at some point next year if the vet QB infront of them struggles.

The perfect example is Jalen Hurts, who could’ve predicted that he’d start over Wentz this year in August?
 

I don’t think anyone who’s rational.

I could also see Cam Newton being signed as @ovfd55 said if Alex retires but part of me pauses on that bc if Rivera wanted Cam Newton, why didn’t he just sign him last season? That makes me pause on that idea.
 

Maybe they were concerned about his injuries and the cost he was demanding right after he was cut was too high so they traded for Kyle Allen instead. Either way, I’m not really sold on Cam being signed and I’m also not sold that Alex will retire in fact I actually seriously doubt it unless he can’t physically do it anymore which I doubt will happen.

The more and more I think about things I think we may have the same 3 QBs we have now, next year - Alex, Kyle & Dwayne. Of course if Dwayne plays awful if he gets to play next week, he may lose the chance to remain with Washington next season. 

Edited December 14, 2020 by turtle28

[ovfd55]

45 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

As far as where the QBs go in the draft, I think it’s an enigma outside of Lawrence & Fields. They’ll go #1 & 2.

Wilson may go top 10, but it depends on team need IMO. Trey Lance is also an enigma, he has tons of talent and potential, but does that mean he goes top 15 just off of that? His resume isn’t exactly impressive & sadly he only played one game last year. He has more talent and potential than Carson Wentz but he doesn’t have Carson’s resume & experience.

Will Trask & Mac Jones work their way up by not only continuing to play well in the hardest conference in the USA but also proving in workouts/combine etc that they are more than what people perceive they are?

That’s entirely possible.

I so wish that BYU was playing a tougher schedule, Wilson definitely has all the tools as @ripsean21 said but he leaves me wanting to see more from him to evaluate every single time he plays and his game vs Costal Carolina was as disappointing as I was after watching Fields struggle with pressure vs Indiana.

My feeling is that both Wilson & Lance are sit and watch candidates as rookies but as well all know, they could become starters at some point next year if the vet QB infront of them struggles.

The perfect example is Jalen Hurts, who could’ve predicted that he’d start over Wentz this year in August?
 

I don’t think anyone shows rational.

I could also see Cam Newton being signed as @ovfd55 said if Alex retires but part of me pauses on that bc if Rivera wanted Cam Newton, why didn’t he just sign him last season? That makes me pause on that idea. Maybe they were concerned about his injuries and the cost he was demanding right after he was cut was too high so they traded for Kyle Allen instead. Either way, I’m not really sold on Cam being signed and I’m also not sold that Alex will retire in fact I actually seriously doubt it unless he can’t physically do it anymore which I doubt will happen.

The more and more I think about things I think we may have the same 3 QBs we have now, next year - Alex, Kyle & Dwayne. Of course if Dwayne plays awful if he gets to play next week, he may lose the chance to remain with Washington next season. 

On the Newton thing Think Cam wanted to start,and Rivera had to make it look like he atleast gave Haskins a chance

[Thaiphoon]

3 hours ago, e16bball said:

My cousin played for the #2 seed (Furman). Obviously I was a diehard WM fan/student at the time, in my sophomore year. We road tripped to most of the away games that year. I knew a lot of guys on the Furman team through my cousin, who is more like an older brother. 

So just to recap, if Scott Beckler (Furman kicker) doesn’t get two FGs blocked like a dumb idiot, I would have been on my way to Greenville, SC, for a weekend partying with the Furman football team and all the hot southern belles that would have been either celebrating them or consoling based on how it turned out. And enjoying a classic win-win scenario, wherein either my team or my cousin would have been playing for a championship in Chattanooga.

Instead, JMU slogged down the field for a winning 1-yard rush (classic 2004 JMU) in the final minute and brought their slog show to Williamsburg, along with a god damn monsoon that was a perfect accoutrement for a team with monstrous maulers along the OL and no interest in concerning themselves with pesky newfangled ideas like “the forward pass.” Predictably, “4 yards and a cloud of dust” fared better in the rain and mud than the high-wire act conducted by the maestro Lang Campbell. 5 turnovers later, the greatest team in WM’s 327 year history was sadly sent home, and I was plunged into a dark despair.

Ahem...no, I don’t really remember anything about it 😂

Well...if you need help remembering, just let me know.

[ARTMONK HOF]

E, I was wondering what are your thoughts on Jaycee Horn-CB/South Carolina. If you like him, What round would you draft him?

[turtle28]

52 minutes ago, ovfd55 said:

On the Newton thing Think Cam wanted to start,and Rivera had to make it look like he atleast gave Haskins a chance

That’s true, and I also wouldn’t be surprised if $ had a lot to do with it. Cam signed late w/ the Pats cheap bc it’s the only offer he had to start. I’m sure he was looking for money after he got cut then what he got from NE.

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, ARTMONK HOF said:

E, I was wondering what are your thoughts on Jaycee Horn-CB/South Carolina. If you like him, What round would you draft him?

I like Jaycee, from what I’ve seen. I don’t watch much SC, but I caught the Auburn game, where he played great, so I probably saw him at or near his best. I like him a lot more in man than zone, I’m not sure I loved his instincts/focus in zone but he clearly likes to take the challenge of matching up one on one. He's definitely a handsy, physical type of cover guy — which is not a disqualifier or even a red flag necessarily for me, but it IS a risk. Guys that like to grab or obstruct when they feel uncomfortable can have a difficult time transitioning to the pro game where that kinda thing will get flagged.

I haven’t seen enough to peg him in a round yet, but my gut (and the growing consensus around the web apparently) says late 1st or early 2nd. I think in a press man scheme, he’d have the most value. 

I actually think @ripsean21 has a better bead on evaluating DBs than me, maybe he’ll chime in as well?

[ripsean21]

42 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I like Jaycee, from what I’ve seen. I don’t watch much SC, but I caught the Auburn game, where he played great, so I probably saw him at or near his best. I like him a lot more in man than zone, I’m not sure I loved his instincts/focus in zone but he clearly likes to take the challenge of matching up one on one. He's definitely a handsy, physical type of cover guy — which is not a disqualifier or even a red flag necessarily for me, but it IS a risk. Guys that like to grab or obstruct when they feel uncomfortable can have a difficult time transitioning to the pro game where that kinda thing will get flagged.

I haven’t seen enough to peg him in a round yet, but my gut (and the growing consensus around the web apparently) says late 1st or early 2nd. I think in a press man scheme, he’d have the most value. 

I actually think @ripsean21 has a better bead on evaluating DBs than me, maybe he’ll chime in as well?

He reminds me of Tre’adavious White a lot coming out. Both were handsy and in college that tends to be a thing. The ones with great speed generally get better in the league the ones who don’t have the higher gears tend to stay handsy and ultimately get called more ofter think Breeland. E is exactly right with what he’s saying is they tend to be scared to turn their head knowing the guy can move from them and it tends to get called a lot less in college. For us we haven’t ran much Press man outside of adjustments for teams in recent weeks.
I’ve seen him getting a lot of love recently. I think theres a sweet spot in this draft between 15 and 45 where the CB’s that can and should make a difference in this class go. I personally like Farely but he sat so I’m having a hard time with this class. Surtain is a boss but this is the most talented Bama defense I’ve seen since the Payne, Allen, Collins Foster team. But I need to go back and do my focus on DB’s as I save them for last it’s usually something that sticks out throughout the year. Mullins is my guy in college. I think he’s the gem. 
Back to Horn I wouldn’t want to be the team picking him where I’ve seen him going as high as. But a lot of teams picking higher that could use DB prefer the press man to the zone does well both like Surtain offers. I think if Horn went to Jax with their second pick. Unless the Rams just go too deep then maybe he’s gone. I think Fairley is still the premier guy because he’s got the all around game of Surtain but with the elite athletic burst in and out of backpedals and snapping the hips around. Horn is what Carolina seems to like with Rhule I think Horn has the pep gear to qualify for what Rhule wants. The Cardinals would love a Horn in their scheme. The team that needs Horn the most is Dallas or Philly. They both have had better luck with press man DB’s in the draft. Diggs and Horn would be huge for Dallas.

[Woz]

On 12/14/2020 at 1:35 AM, Thaiphoon said:

There's a pretty big disparity between conferences in FCS outside the top conferences. Just like there is in FBS

FBS has the P5, the FCS basically has the P3 (CAA, MVFC, Big Sky), then you have Ohio Valley and Southland at the next tier, and then the rest.

So yeah, FCS has its own "haves" and "have nots". And even then the "have nots" still make noise

Again, using 2019, conference distribution into the FCS playoffs was:

Big Sky     4   Weber St (3 seed, champion), Sacramento St (4 seed), Montana St (5 seed), Montana (6 seed)
MVFC        4   North Dakota St (1 seed, champion), South Dakota St (7 seed), Illinois St, Northern Iowa
CAA         3   James Madison (2 seed, champion), Albany, Villanova
Southland   3   Central Arkansas (8 seed), Nicholls (champion), SE Louisiana
Big South   2   Monmouth (champion), Kennesaw St
Ohio Valley 2   Austin Peay (champion), SE Missouri St
Southern    2   Wofford (champion), Furman
Independent 1   North Dakota [formerly associated with Big Sky, joined MVFC in 2020]
Northeast   1   Central Connecticut (champion)
Patriot     1   Holy Cross (champion)
Pioneer     1   San Diego (champion)

By my count there, of the ten conferences, seven got at least one at-large bid.

By comparison

Big Ten     6   Ohio State (2 seed, champion), Wisconsin (8 seed), Penn St, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota
SEC         5   LSU (1 seed, champion), Georgia (5 seed), Florida, Auburn, Alabama
Pac-12      3   Oregon (6 seed, champion), Utah
Big XII     2   Oklahoma (4 seed, champion), Baylor (7 seed)
American    2   Memphis (champion), Cincinnati
ACC         1   Clemson (3 seed, champion)
C-USA       1   Florida Atlantic
Independent 1   Notre Dame
MAC         1   Miami (OH)
Mtn West    1   Boise St
Sun Belt    1   Appalachian St

Only five conferences got an at-large bid, with nearly 65% landing in the top two conferences.

On 12/14/2020 at 1:35 AM, Thaiphoon said:

Also - just because you win your conference is no guarantee you will be one of the top 8 teams with a bye. 

It is going to be a rare Power 5 conference champion that isn't a top 8 team. Again, look at the above list; only the ACC's runner up (UVA *sigh*) and the Pac-12's runner up (Utah) didn't get seeded, and Utah just missed it at 11th.

Again, those rankings are from a committee.

On 12/14/2020 at 1:35 AM, Thaiphoon said:

I'm not just talking about this year. But if you're exposing how weekly rankings are still tied to preseason rankings every year, then that exposes a flaw in the playoff ranking system, no?

Well, yes.

A team from the Group of 5 must be undefeated to get to the top ten of the ranking system because they start from a lower position and their early wins are not considered as "good" as a bigger team's wins.

And if you think that would magically go away with a seeded bracket plus at large bids, do I have some wonderful beachfront property in Oklahoma to sell you!

On 12/14/2020 at 1:35 AM, Thaiphoon said:

Or I'd like to see the UCF's of the world in a particular year have a chance to prove that they should've been included rather than being "just left out" because of their perceived strength of schedule. I would've rather seen them prove it in a real playoff system rather than than the dog and pony show we get now.

And to be clear, so would I, but that isn't going to happen when five conferences (and Notre Dame) comprise 50%(*) of the teams in I-A and the system works for them. When the Power 5 have thrown around the idea of spinning off from I-A altogether and creating a smaller super league that doesn't involve the "lesser" teams. When the Group of 5 conferences realize they're only ever going to get half a loaf, but at least was a large loaf to begin with.

To be perfectly honest, I think the NCAA would absolutely love to do away with the bowl system, but the vested interests in the bowls (the individual towns and the sponsors) make it nigh impossible to shake loose at this point.

 

(*) Keep in mind that it only now is exactly 50% = 64 in the Power 5 + Notre Dame out of 130. Previously, the "cartel" had more than 50%.

I also need to apologize, it's only 41 bowls this year. 43 in 2021. Neither of those numbers include the National Championship game.

 

On 12/14/2020 at 1:35 AM, Thaiphoon said:

Now, you see...I don't think the bowl games should be excluded. In fact they SHOULD be included wherever they can. Even in FCS, you have the Ivy League that refuses to play postseason due to their own internal rules. And the HBCUs who play their own Celebration Bowl (although some of the teams that would be playoff teams and don't make it into the chance for that bowl championship, do accept invites to the FCS playoffs). The Bowl system can work in an expanded playoffs.

Except three things:

1. Six bowls are included in the current playoff system. The Rose, Orange, Sugar, Cotton, Peach, and Fiesta rotate who represent the two semifinal games are and the other four are awarded to the top teams outside of the top 4. Assuming for a moment that you want to honor these six biggest ones, that's the site of your quarter and semi final games.
2. Unless you are going to do away with the first and second rounds getting home games, no other bowls can fit.
3. If you carve out the top tier out to a playoff game (11 teams if you go to 16 or 18 if you go to 24, assuming 2019 is representative), those lower tier bowls (which host Group of 5 teams) likely won't survive. As such, no payouts to the Group of 5 beyond the one berth they get in the playoff. Again, half a loaf.

Now, I'm of the opinion there are way too many bowls as it is right now and that losing about half would be the right call. However, I can see why there is a proliferation of bowl games and why now 5-7 (yes, losing teams can be selected if there aren't enough winning teams) teams can make bowls: everyone gets some cheddar.

It is a stupid system, but it's what exists.

There might have been a chance to derail it back in the early 90s before the BCS took root, or before the WAC spawned the Humanitarian Bowl in Boise, ID to make sure its teams got a postseason game in 1997. At that point, there were only 16-20 bowl games a year (it's way too late to go back and see which ones like the Aloha Bowl collapsed). Since that point, 25 more bowls appeared on the scene making the whole thing a farce.

But again, everyone gets some.

Yes, JMU might have more money than some I-A schools for its programs. That's cool and all. But look at the game from say an Appalachian State. They clawed up the chain and got to I-A ... now they say if you don't win your conference, your season is probably done because the mid-tier conference teams are no longer going to get any juice out of playing an exhibition game. In the Mountaineers case, they're probably okay since they have a good shot at winning the title and upsetting a cocky Power 5 team. Could even make that run you are talking about.

But does their whole conference sign onto that dream of one team making the run when the rest get nothing, and where there isn't anything to support them outside the playoffs? Especially if the Power 5 grumble again about having to "make more room" for the "smaller" teams?

 

It's fear/risk aversion combined with tradition/status quo.