The Pats QB situation

[Nex_Gen]

Can we shut the Jimmy G talk? It's getting pretty annoying. If the Patriots acquire another QB this off-season, it will be through the draft.

[jofos]

58 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

I’m not a fan of his and yeah I don’t think he will be there. I don’t want them to trade to 4 to get the 4th best QB prospect. 

Can I add that David Morris said he felt like Davis Mills was the second best QB in the draft class that I shrugged it off because Mills is a guy that he is working with but Morris is also working with Mac Jones.

[Apparition]

The fact is that the 2nd through 5th best prospects can all go in any order, depending on how each individual team evaluates them. We have no idea what's gonna happen over the next month, so we might as well just sit and wait.

[viking]

3 hours ago, Nex_Gen said:

Can we shut the Jimmy G talk? It's getting pretty annoying. If the Patriots acquire another QB this off-season, it will be through the draft.

Jimmy G reunion could easily happen

[Dr A W Niloc]

     For the sake of argument, let's stipulate that New England has one of the very best Head Coaches and Offensive Lines in football.  Let's say Trey Lance and Mac Jones are close enough to warrant comparison (as this controversy suggests).  Both have good arms;  one is slightly stronger, the other more accurate.  Let's assume these Tier III QBs are going to have a fault (without which they'd be going much higher).  Which flaw will Belichick prefer?  A QB with below average mobility or one deficient in all other aspects of the game (i.e. "football IQ", where these two are the alpha and omega of the 2021 class)?

     It's not a trick question.

[Apparition]

3 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     For the sake of argument, let's stipulate that New England has one of the very best Head Coaches and Offensive Lines in football.  Let's say Trey Lance and Mac Jones are close enough to warrant comparison (as this controversy suggests).  Both have good arms;  one is slightly stronger, the other more accurate.  Let's assume these Tier III QBs are going to have a fault (without which they'd be going much higher).  Which flaw will Belichick prefer?  A QB with below average mobility or one deficient in all other aspects of the game (i.e. "football IQ", where these two are the alpha and omega of the 2021 class)?

     It's not a trick question.

I think Belichick's age will push him towards Jones because Lance will likely take at least a couple of years to develop if he ever gets there. And the loading up the team did this year suggests he's trying to make another run in the short-term, rather than wait for the pieces to fall into place for another dynasty to launch. 

 

[Hunter2_1]

6 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     For the sake of argument, let's stipulate that New England has one of the very best Head Coaches and Offensive Lines in football.  Let's say Trey Lance and Mac Jones are close enough to warrant comparison (as this controversy suggests).  Both have good arms;  one is slightly stronger, the other more accurate.  Let's assume these Tier III QBs are going to have a fault (without which they'd be going much higher).  Which flaw will Belichick prefer?  A QB with below average mobility or one deficient in all other aspects of the game (i.e. "football IQ", where these two are the alpha and omega of the 2021 class)?

     It's not a trick question.

He would take the smarter QB, and one which comes with a recommendation from his friend Saban too.

[Hunter2_1]

On 3/24/2021 at 2:04 PM, Hunter2_1 said:

I said top 5, but if we're thinking 7-10;

Risk is one. There could be a scenario where all of Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, and Lance are gone by then. We've traded into 7th position, and we still have the same prospects available as at 15, as they've been taken in top 6

Cost is another. The price to get to #4 to guarantee you got one of them was this year’s 1st (#15) this year’s 2nd (#46) and next year’s 1st? Two 1sts and a 2nd for the 4th pick. Atlanta will ask for this at least.

Competition - you have to assume if we're willing to do that, Carolina and Denver are too, and they have better capital. We may have to trade 2 drafts for the possibility at getting Fields or Lance. Chicago were also willing to mortgage their roster to get Wilson....let's add them to the mix

Value - Worth it? Maybe. This is a prediction that we won't trade down

 

 

That risk point is even more poignant now. Say we traded to 10th, and they're all gone. We've given up draft capital to get a non QB

 

I can see one path only (see below)

 

1. Jags - Lawrence

2. Jets - Wilson

3. SF - Fields

- Moving here is an option, but would cost a lot

8. CAR - Lance

9 Denver & 11 Chicago - Jones won't survive these two

 

So, to get Jones we MUST trade up. Not need - MUST.

 the ONLY moves we can do to guarantee a QB is trade to 4th with Atlanta, 5th with Cinci or 7th with Detroit.

My opinion; We won't sell the farm for the 4th pick, Detroit will want to pick there and Cinci will be gunning for Sewell.

So actually, the only path I see is if Sewell is taken by Atlanta, which makes Cinci a trade option as they'd go for the next best tackle available which should be there by 15.

 

But you know Chicago are thinking the same thing

Edited March 28, 2021 by Hunter2_1

[m haynes]

58 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Chicago were also willing to mortgage their roster to get Wilson....let's add them to the mix

Excellent point. I did not take this fact into account for the Pats to trade up. Also they have a history making foolish trades

[Crimmage]

I think Chicago is more likely to overpay to get Jimmy given that their Coach/GM are on the hot seat. They will want to try and win asap to save their jobs. 

 

The Vikings could surprise people and go QB though, doesn't Cousins only have 1 more year on his deal? Would make sense to draft someone now and maybe switch to them after the year or mid year. 

Denver COULD stick with Locke.. but I think he's awful.. I'd certainly draft one of the top 5 guys to replace him. 

 

Same with Carolina.. Bridgewater is meh at best, if you can get Lance / Jones.. you make that pick

 

Trading up seemed a lot cheaper a few days ago, now I feel like we could even see some major overdrafts for Trask/Mond/ Mills just because QB needy teams are freaking out at how quickly they are coming off the board. 

[Apparition]

Y'all are really overthinking this. NFL GMs might not be the smartest people in the world, but most, I think, are pretty well capable of doing cost-benefit analysis of shelling out massive capital to grab the 4th or 5th best QB in the draft. Most of these teams y'all are talking about are NOT close to competing for a championship and won't pony up multiple FRPs to take a Trey Lance or Mac Jones. 

[Apparition]

7 hours ago, m haynes said:

Excellent point. I did not take this fact into account for the Pats to trade up. Also they have a history making foolish trades

Wilson is a proven commodity. World of difference between him and an untested rookie. 

[Apparition]

HAIL SATAN

 

my prediction, as things stand at the moment:

Garoppolo -> Eagles (after being released)

Darnold -> Broncos

Edited March 28, 2021 by Starless

[Nex_Gen]

17 hours ago, viking said:

Jimmy G reunion could easily happen

Not after Cam signed.

There was probably a slight chance before that, but that door is now closed.

[Soko]

The whole “4th best QB” stuff is irrelevant. 

You’re a GM. Mac Jones (or which ever QB you think is at the bottom/available at picks 4 and 5) is sitting right there. You don't think he’s going to fall very far and definitely won’t fall to your pick at 15. Do you think he could be your QB of the future, your franchise QB? If yes, trade up if you can. If no, sit tight. It doesn’t matter if Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, and Lance were better prospects. It’s binary - do you think he can be your guy? 

If you think you’re looking at a franchise QB but don’t want to go up and get him because there were other guys that may have been better, that’s silly.