Defense Discussion [2017]

[incognito_man]

2 hours ago, TheOnlyThing said:

Saw an interesting tidbit today that caught my eye:

 

Dom Capers was hired in 2009. #Packers defense since:

- 1st in INTs

- 3rd in sacks

- 4th in comp. %

- 5th in passer rating

- 8th in points

This is also a good response to those who think better DC's are just out there waiting to be hired. Consistently good defenses (DC's) are (clearly) not only rare, but certainly not available.

[justo]

There's a reason why Capers is the longest-tenured DC in the league. He does have an MO though. Splash plays, splash plays, splash plays. Bet yards/receptions, yards/carry is much different. I think it's cool that he's been around long enough that he's just decided to do experimental stuff like having different nickel ILBs (one being a base safety) and playing Lowry as a pressure nose consistently. Aye man, if nothing else, this team is going to be fast for their relative positions. I still think the biggest issue with how the team is structured is Clay's contract.

EDIT: But at the same time, Green Bay could easily have like $40-50 million in cap space in March so who the hell knows.

[TheOnlyThing]

On 8/1/2017 at 5:49 PM, packfanfb said:

Right now, our defense is a lot of "what if's" which is intriguing but scary.

DLine: Should be the best unit on the D. Being at camp the first few days, Clark and Lowry both look bigger, stronger and better. Daniels is Daniels and Guion and RJF will provide sufficient depth. Hopefully Adams can offer something later in the year after missing the entire preseason. Overall, this is best group in terms of depth IMO.  

OLB: Got two big "named" guys in Matthews and Perry. Personally, I think Perry is the better player at this point, but if Clay stays healthy, maybe he has more than 4 sacks this year. We need him to play better, period. Too many games last year where nobody right tackles ate Clay alive all game. He has to be better. After that, it's a crap shoot, not something you want at arguably the most important position on the 3-4. At camp, Fackrell looked bigger and stronger but who knows what that means right now. He's a "what if" player. Elliott is steady but nothing more than a journeyman player. Biegel right now is just a 4th round draft pick who hasn't practiced yet. Not counting on him much this year, at least until later in the year. The rest of the guys on the roster are JAGs who wouldn't make most teams. All I have to say is if Perry or Matthews get hurt or any significant period of time, which is likely, I think we are in real trouble at this position. 

ILB: Steady but very average, as it has been for years in GB. Ryan is an okay, steady player but I don't see him ever being a play-making linebacker. I think I saw a stat showing that Ryan did not force a single TO or even have a forced fumble last year. That's pretty hard to do when you start every game at that position, and not in a good way. Martinez is a "what if" player, he was lousy last year as a rookie so he'll either make a "jump" or be lousy again this year and the year after, etc. Thomas is probably our best ILB imo, but he has marginal size and can't be a 3-down LB. Throw in the rookie Jones and Burnett as "ILBs" in certain packages, and all in all, like I said, it's a steady group, but not one play-maker in the lot. Probably good enough to make it the SB however, so I'm okay with it. 

S: Overall a very strong group. Personally, I think Burnett is little overrated but he's a steady player and a captain of sorts so he is valuable there. HHCD looks like a leader out on the field in his 4th year and I expect him to be one of our best defensive players this year. Jones looks good so far but its "practice" (Iverson voice) so I'm not getting overly hyped yet. I've heard good things about Brice but ultimately I question his awareness on the field. If he's not Bigby 2.0 in terms of intelligence, he might be a decent player. 

CB: Still overall the weakest position on the team. It is clear from practice and reports that House is the No. 1 CB on the team. That's pretty scary given he was essentially benched in Jax (yes, I know it was a different system, etc.). I think he's a good player, but I liked it better when House was our No. 3 corner or maybe a No. 2 this year (See SB 45). He'd be great to pair with a guy like Shields but alas... Maybe he's up to the task of covering the Julios, Greens and Bryant's of the NFL. We will see. After House, it literally is "hold your breath and pray" at CB. Our best hope IMO is that King comes on right away and secures the No. 2 spot. Rollins appears to be playing with more confidence this summer and could be a good fit in the slot. Can't say the same about Randall. I'm telling you body language says a lot and at camp Randall looked like a guy who doesn't want to be in Green Bay. He's been relegated to the No. 4-5 corner on the team, right there with Gunter. At least Gunter has an excuse because he can't run and frankly plays above his ability at times. I simply have no confidence that Randall is going to improve much from last year, and I don't buy the injury excuse because he was poor last year even before the injuries started. That being said, he's a "what if" player just like Rollins, Gunter and the rest of the group outside of House really. Truly, this position, depending on how it performs probably makes or breaks our deep playoff run. 

Overall, right now, I think we are a 20-25 defense, not close to the top 10. If some key players have made that "jump" and we stay healthy, maybe we creep in the 15 area. That would probably be good enough with the GOAT at QB who simply needs anything but a bad defense to get us back to the SB. 

 

 

I mostly agree with the analysis of the various defensive units/players above, though I think Safety is a stronger position overall than the DLine.

However, I don't see how that analysis could lead to the conclusion that the Packers will be a "20-25 defense" in 2017 (assuming you are referring to points allowed). I think that is unduly pessimistic for at least 3 reasons.

First, taking a historic view, under Dom Capers the Pack has never finished in the bottom 1/4 of the NFL (25 or above) in points allowed and only finished above 20 twice, last season and in 2013 when ARod was injured. 

Secondly, the analysis above does not conclude that the team is devoid of talent (including at the CB position) and indeed acknowledges there is some significant talent on this D.

Third, and most crucially for me, this year’s injuries are unlikely to decimate the D, specifically the CB position, to the extent they did in 2016. This factor alone is sufficient for me to anticipate an improvement over last year's 21st ranking in points allowed.

[Gopackgonerd]

 

15 minutes ago, TheOnlyThing said:

I mostly agree with the analysis of the various defensive units/players above, though I think Safety is a stronger position overall than the DLine.

However, I don't see how that analysis could lead to the conclusion that the Packers will be a "20-25 defense" in 2017 (assuming you are referring to points allowed). I think that is unduly pessimistic for at least 3 reasons.

First, taking a historic view, under Dom Capers the Pack has never finished in the bottom 1/4 of the NFL (25 or above) in points allowed and only finished above 20 twice, last season and in 2013 when ARod was injured. 

Secondly, the analysis above does not conclude that the team is devoid of talent (including at the CB position) and indeed acknowledges there is some significant talent on this D.

Third, and most crucially for me, this year’s injuries are unlikely to decimate the D, specifically the CB position, to the extent they did in 2016. This factor alone is sufficient for me to anticipate an improvement over last year's 21st ranking in points allowed.

Ya on paper I think we are an top 15 at least, if we can get better production out of the Corners this year apposed to last year we should be in good shape to crack top 15. All dependent on the Pass D which can't be as bad as last season.

[vegas492]

On 8/11/2017 at 8:29 PM, AlexGreen#20 said:

Ugly back pedal for a corner, only decent for a safety. Not real flexible in the hips and you basically have to teach him to play football backing up. Why try it when the man excels going forward?

Thanks for adding in...I watched zero film on him, so I didn't know those things...except that he comes forward very well.

I was trying to find a way to get our best athletes on the field, and if Josh is a better athlete than Rollins or Randall, I was wondering if he could play corner.  

I'll watch for what you said above...hips and backpedal.  Thanks for the pointers.

[vegas492]

About the topic...are we a Super Bowl caliber defense?

My thoughts?  No.  I don't think the unit will be top 15.  Maybe 20.

That is okay, though, and I can be proved wrong if the squad turns the ball over.  Give up yards, don't get sacks...that's fine if you can get a timely turnover or two.

I think that this squad is less talented than last year's squad.  But last year's squad (corners) were injured.  So, there is hope, but my instincts tell me our secondary will be one of the worst in the league this year.  Run D will be top 10 because teams will just throw all over us.

Totally wish I didn't feel this way.

[skibrett15]

19 hours ago, incognito_man said:

Consistently good defenses (DC's) are (clearly) not only rare, but certainly not available

Defensive consistency year to year is one of the most variable things in the NFL.  Since 2011

Pts: 19, 11, 24, 13, 12, 21

DVOA: 25, 8, 31, 16, 9, 20

 

Capers was once an excellent DC.  In 2009 and 2010.  Following that, he has led frequently poor, sometimes average, and occasionally good squads.  If you give any qualified DC 6 years, they will put together a top 10 D at least once.

We can no longer judge Capers by what happened in 2009 and 2010.  NFL offenses are much more prepared for his tactics, and we no longer have anywhere close to that level of talent.

So, mr. Capers.  what exactly is it ya say you do here?

[Norm]

10 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

Defensive consistency year to year is one of the most variable things in the NFL.  Since 2011

Pts: 19, 11, 24, 13, 12, 21

DVOA: 25, 8, 31, 16, 9, 20

 

Capers was once an excellent DC.  In 2009 and 2010.  Following that, he has led frequently poor, sometimes average, and occasionally good squads.  If you give any qualified DC 6 years, they will put together a top 10 D at least once.

We can no longer judge Capers by what happened in 2009 and 2010.  NFL offenses are much more prepared for his tactics, and we no longer have anywhere close to that level of talent.

So, mr. Capers.  what exactly is it ya say you do here?

I mean....if you're making this comment yet only pointing fingers at DC?

[incognito_man]

20 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

Defensive consistency year to year is one of the most variable things in the NFL.  Since 2011

Pts: 19, 11, 24, 13, 12, 21

DVOA: 25, 8, 31, 16, 9, 20

 

Capers was once an excellent DC.  In 2009 and 2010.  Following that, he has led frequently poor, sometimes average, and occasionally good squads.  If you give any qualified DC 6 years, they will put together a top 10 D at least once.

We can no longer judge Capers by what happened in 2009 and 2010.  NFL offenses are much more prepared for his tactics, and we no longer have anywhere close to that level of talent.

So, mr. Capers.  what exactly is it ya say you do here?

And when you look at that and realized that all but 8 other teams have had it worse, kinda makes you not want to have it worse doesn't it?

[skibrett15]

Just now, NormSizedMidget said:

yet only pointing fingers at DC

go read my first post on this.

Plenty of excuses to be made for Capers.  Plenty of problems with the 2013 and 2014 drafts and the 2015 and 2016 off-seasons with regard to defense.  Basically we added no talent outside of HHCD in 2 years.  Not no elite talent.  No talent or contributors who are retained today outside of HHCD.  Plenty of injuries and bad situations.

TT, however, appears to be turning a corner on this process though.  He was already way more important to the org than Capers, and he's showing that he is capable of improving his drafts and using FA to replaces failures in the draft.

Call it what you want, justify it how you want, but Capers should go because it's the easiest change to make which is least disruptive to the organization and it's the best chance we have at defensive improvement.  He's the easiest to replace, and the very act of change would be good for the org.

[skibrett15]

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

And when you look at that and realized that all but 8 other teams have had it worse, kinda makes you not want to have it worse doesn't it?

do you think that the results themselves will impact this season or future seasons?  It's like one of those line graphs in politics where you specifically go back a certain time period to show a manufactured "trend"

Going into 2011 we were probably the defensive leader in pts in the NFL, then we were 9th in points, then 3rd in pts, then 4th, then 7th, then 10th, then 6th, then 8th, then 8th... (I didn't check this, but something like this is going on)

kinda seems like we are gonna have it worse than 8 teams sooner than later, doesn't it?

[Norm]

41 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

go read my first post on this.

Plenty of excuses to be made for Capers.  Plenty of problems with the 2013 and 2014 drafts and the 2015 and 2016 off-seasons with regard to defense.  Basically we added no talent outside of HHCD in 2 years.  Not no elite talent.  No talent or contributors who are retained today outside of HHCD.  Plenty of injuries and bad situations.

TT, however, appears to be turning a corner on this process though.  He was already way more important to the org than Capers, and he's showing that he is capable of improving his drafts and using FA to replaces failures in the draft.

Call it what you want, justify it how you want, but Capers should go because it's the easiest change to make which is least disruptive to the organization and it's the best chance we have at defensive improvement.  He's the easiest to replace, and the very act of change would be good for the org.

I honestly think Capers is holding this defense back. Not necessarily because he's a moron. But I feel like the team (just my feel here) kinda feels like our fans. One PS game, hell one PS drive and it's like oh here we go again.. I get the feel that the players might buy in more for someone else. Maybe they can't relate to the old bastard, idk. 

I don't agree on change for change's sake very often, but I've been there with Dom for a while now. I can live with him though, I'm not throwing a tantrum. But I just get this feeling the team might respond better to someone else and not go "yep this again" when a game or season starts going weird.

[MacReady]

Just now, NormSizedMidget said:

I honestly think Capers is holding this defense back. But I feel like the team kinda feels like our fans.  Maybe they can't relate to the old bastard, idk.

The one reason I want to agree with this the most is that I can't get over him calling the game from a box.  I have a big issue with that and every time we have a bad game, that comes back to me and bugs me. 

I'm currently watching the pitchfork and torch crowd, content to sit back and watch.  One more 40+ point playoff game and I'll start sharping the points on my pitchfork.  Not that it will do any good because if they didn't fire him after 2009 (51 points), if they didn't fire him after 2011 (37 points), if they didn't fire him after 2012 (45 points), if they didn't fire him after 2016 (44 points), they aren't going to fire him until a team scores 70 points against us.  Even then, McCarthy might just call it a buzzsaw and move onto the next year. 

[Norm]

2 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

The one reason I want to agree with this the most is that I can't get over him calling the game from a box.  I have a big issue with that and every time we have a bad game, that comes back to me and bugs me. 

I'm currently watching the pitchfork and torch crowd, content to sit back and watch.  One more 40+ point playoff game and I'll start sharping the points on my pitchfork.  Not that it will do any good because if they didn't fire him after 2009 (51 points), if they didn't fire him after 2011 (37 points), if they didn't fire him after 2012 (45 points), if they didn't fire him after 2016 (44 points), they aren't going to fire him until a team scores 70 points against us.  Even then, McCarthy might just call it a buzzsaw and move onto the next year. 

Why is that an issue? Just a HZ thing? lol

[incognito_man]

44 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

do you think that the results themselves will impact this season or future seasons?  It's like one of those line graphs in politics where you specifically go back a certain time period to show a manufactured "trend"

Going into 2011 we were probably the defensive leader in pts in the NFL, then we were 9th in points, then 3rd in pts, then 4th, then 7th, then 10th, then 6th, then 8th, then 8th... (I didn't check this, but something like this is going on)

kinda seems like we are gonna have it worse than 8 teams sooner than later, doesn't it?

I'm not sure, it's hard to know because there is so much turnover. Hiring someone just for the sake of change isn't very prudent however. If there is someone you like better, and the change is motivated by a strong feeling of improvement then it makes sense. If you don't identify someone who you think is going to be better, than change doesn't make sense.

Capers is the longest tenured DC by like 4 years. Kinda crazy. High turnover position generally.