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Playoffs - Wild Card Round


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8 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

you have 3 doors in front of you, 2 of which have a goat behind them and 1 has a car. You have to blindly select one. Monte then opens up a door revealing a goat and asks "do you want to keep your original choice or switch doors?"

What do you do and why

You are supposed to switch, but I have never really understood why.  I don't like statistics tricks like that.  It is supposed to increase your odds from 33% to something.  

say we have:

1.  Car

2.  Goat

3.  Goat

I choose door 1.  Monte shows me door 2 has a goat.  Probability says I am supposed to switch (unfortunately I get goat in this example) because there is a 66% chance that I picked goat first.  What I have a very difficult time wrapping my head around is why I should switch because no matter what, I am really making a 1/2 choice because Monte is going to show me a door with a goat after my first choice.  It tells me nothing about my choice, only that I didn't choose one of the goats with my first choice, but I already know that I can't choose both goats because I only get one choice.  

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