skibrett15 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, incognito_man said: overpriced Rodgers is underpriced per my evaluation and the team's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Just now, skibrett15 said: Rodgers is underpriced per my evaluation and the team's not if he's traded Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Just now, incognito_man said: not if he's traded which he won't be until he's overpriced! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBobGray Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, incognito_man said: It literally does. And it literally uses the best available information to support it. To suggest otherwise is to suggest that the suggester of the different reasoning places his/her opinion above that of 32 collective NFL franchises. Efficient market hypothesis This only holds true if you believe that every draft would happen the same way every time, ie that all parties involved have a single static unchanging view of each prospect. If you assume that an immediate re-draft would fall differently to even a slight degree the cascade effect of the draft changes everything else as prospects are no longer in reach. This is completely different to the financial markets because there's nothing even close to that level of dependency between investments in the same way. You're also not addressing the number of QBs picked in the 1st round; Rodgers was the 2nd QB taken, Love the 4th. On top of everything, this ignores the obvious; that people are the furthest thing from rational actors at the best of times. As @Packerraymond points out, Rodgers being a Tedford QB was used as a point against him; not in terms of what it did to his onfield abilities, but merely because other QBs he'd coached had struggled in the pros. That has nothing to do with Rodgers as a prospect in reality, but the draft isn't held in reality, it's held in the heads of NFL GMs and requisite staff. Teams can absolutely believe someone is both an all-time great prospect and completely undraftable, and they can do so for literally innumerable reasons. Where a player drafted is only one bit of the information needed to determine how they're seen as a prospect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Rodgers is worth something like... 60M-80M/year in pure cap value at today's play and projecting 3-4 years of future play. If Rodgers had a base salary of $60M with $0 dead cap to the packers, he wouldn't be untradeable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 1 minute ago, MrBobGray said: Where a player drafted is only one bit of the information needed to determine how they're seen as a prospect. It's the culmination of EVERY AVAILABLE bit of information. Everything else regresses to the mean over time. Every human system involves human irrationality at the individual level, and yes that can result in an irrational decision-maker OVERvaluing a prospect, but not undervaluing. Rodgers, as a prospect, was inarguably no more valuable than his draft slot. Love, as a prospect, is arguably less valuable than his draft slot (can employ the argument of an irrational actor (Gute) overdrafting him). But there is circumstantial evidence suggesting Love was not overdrafted and other participants valued him similarly. Yes, it's a finite system that adheres to supply and demand, but it's complex enough and large enough where using draft position as the gauge of prospect valuation is OBVIOUSLY the best evidentiary support. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: Rodgers is worth something like... 60M-80M/year in pure cap value at today's play and projecting 3-4 years of future play. If Rodgers had a base salary of $60M with $0 dead cap to the packers, he wouldn't be untradeable. yeah, sure - but he isn't going to win a playoff game despite putting money in his owners' pocket Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, MrBobGray said: This only holds true if you believe that every draft would happen the same way every time, ie that all parties involved have a single static unchanging view of each prospect. If you assume that an immediate re-draft would fall differently to even a slight degree the cascade effect of the draft changes everything else as prospects are no longer in reach. This is completely different to the financial markets because there's nothing even close to that level of dependency between investments in the same way. You're also not addressing the number of QBs picked in the 1st round; Rodgers was the 2nd QB taken, Love the 4th. On top of everything, this ignores the obvious; that people are the furthest thing from rational actors at the best of times. As @Packerraymond points out, Rodgers being a Tedford QB was used as a point against him; not in terms of what it did to his onfield abilities, but merely because other QBs he'd coached had struggled in the pros. That has nothing to do with Rodgers as a prospect in reality, but the draft isn't held in reality, it's held in the heads of NFL GMs and requisite staff. Teams can absolutely believe someone is both an all-time great prospect and completely undraftable, and they can do so for literally innumerable reasons. Where a player drafted is only one bit of the information needed to determine how they're seen as a prospect. NFL draft is closer to a Storage Wars storage locker auction than the public financial markets. Extreme scarcity of information and limited number of players contribute to huge margins of error. Extremely inefficient market, even over the lifespan of the NFL, and this goes double or triple for QBs. At any given time, there are only between 2-10 teams in the QB "market" at all due to perception and external factors which impact their own personal job performance. Free agency is a better indicator of a player's value, but it's still very messy due to team factors, injury factors, and others. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, incognito_man said: QB is the most valuable position. It, more than anything, will demonstrate the efficiency of the market. The NFL collectively valued Rodgers the prospect and Love the prospect nearly identically. It's all I need to know. Every individual opinion to the contrary is hogwash. It's why I'll never buy an individual stock, either. I trust no one who thinks they are smarter than billion/trillion dollar systems. It's insanity. You're assuming everyone drafts the best player on the board when they are on the clock, that's the only way what you're trying to say is true. That's a massive assumption. One we can confidently say is not true. Otherwise all your numbers state is Rodgers was pick 24 and Love was pick 26. You're attitude on this is hilarious. "Hogwash" lol. This is definitely one of your smartest guy in the room arguments you love having. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, incognito_man said: yeah, sure - but he isn't going to win a playoff game despite putting money in his owners' pocket Rodgers is only a $28M cap hit in 2023. What a steal! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 1 minute ago, skibrett15 said: Rodgers is only a $28M cap hit in 2023. What a steal! If we get there with him it would be Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: NFL draft is closer to a Storage Wars storage locker auction than the public financial markets. Extreme scarcity of information and limited number of players contribute to huge margins of error. Extremely inefficient market, even over the lifespan of the NFL, and this goes double or triple for QBs. At any given time, there are only between 2-10 teams in the QB "market" at all due to perception and external factors which impact their own personal job performance. Free agency is a better indicator of a player's value, but it's still very messy due to team factors, injury factors, and others. you're missing the key point here... This is a discussion about the perceived PROSPECT VALUE. Not the actual draft hit rate... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Brandt with the dig. Haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 1 minute ago, incognito_man said: perceived PROSPECT VALUE. Not the actual draft hit rate perceived prospect value is completely dependent on the factors I listed. Draft slot is artificially lowered/raised based on those factors. And if you draw the conclusion that the NFL draft market reached an efficient equilibrium based on those factors, well, you're wrong in most cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannondale Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Just now, incognito_man said: you're missing the key point here... This is a discussion about the perceived PROSPECT VALUE. Not the actual draft hit rate... Actually the discussion was about Love's readiness to start at this point vs Rodger's readiness to start with Favre. You twisted it into some sort of NASDAQ thing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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