Covid-19 News/Discussion

[vike daddy]

5 hours ago, G said:

This is the best way to reach herd immunity and always has been. Vaccinate those most vunerable and let the others spread it. I said this at the start before vaccines but it was lockdown vunerable and spread it elsewhere.. Would have been done with this long ago and the more people push vaccines on those who don't want it the longer it will take. 

gee, if only the MD's and PhD's and immunology experts had just listened to you! you're so smart, they're so dumb!

[TVScout]

Quote

A study conducted by Chinese researchers that has yet to be peer-reviewed found that people infected with the delta variant had viral loads that were up to 1,260 times higher than the viral loads of individuals infected with the original strain that circulated in 2020.

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/delta-variant-viral-load-scientists-are-watching-covid-pandemic-rcna1604?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma&fbclid=IwAR3JJDic9NLAkZsVaeodfbO89K6_nYizskqkEQ2Pd7DHygffGiTN76eUEnI

[JonStark]

6 hours ago, G said:

Sounds like a good time.

This is the best way to reach herd immunity and always has been. Vaccinate those most vunerable and let the others spread it. I said this at the start before vaccines but it was lockdown vunerable and spread it elsewhere.. Would have been done with this long ago and the more people push vaccines on those who don't want it the longer it will take. So 3 years were just over halfway there and it will still be here mutating but we will treat it like a superflu with 100-150K deaths per year. I've go to school to be a nurse but being I won't get vaccinated I doubt the school will let me in and the hospital won't hire me. I already work in healthcare and will excel in another field or in healthcare outside of areas that force their will upon others. SEE YA LATER CALI!!! Not until I RECALL NEWSOM FIRST! So glad I flew to Florida Memorial Day week to see if I would like it there...HELL YA!!! STURGIS or Bust

This might be the worst take in this entire thread, and that's saying something. What in the world are you talking about? 

[Xenos]

1 minute ago, JonStark said:

This might be the worst take in this entire thread, and that's saying something. What in the world are you talking about? 

I’m just going to assume it’s a troll post and move on.

[JonStark]

11 minutes ago, Xenos said:

I’m just going to assume it’s a troll post and move on.

Good call. You would've thought I learned my lesson by now. 

[squire12]

11 hours ago, JonStark said:

The longer it takes the majority of the population to get vaccinated, the lower the odds that we ever can reach herd immunity. In that case, yes the goal will be to figure out how to successfully live with it. 

I think that this covid 19 and its subsequent variants are going to be that....a respiratory illness that is +/- other similar respiratory illnesses.  

Viruses are good at mutation.   As long as they can have a habitat to do so, they will. 

Sad, but I think that is the destiny for this virus and mankind.  

[pwny]

17 hours ago, DontTazeMeBro said:

I also don’t really understand how you achieve herd immunity with a vaccine that doesn’t make you immune. And iirc correctly a year ago people were shouted down for even talking about herd immunity.

And today I just heard about a study from 2015 about vaccines that don’t kill viruses causes worse strains of the virus.

Also I asked this a few days ago but can someone explain Antibody Dependent Enhancement?

These seem like questions in good faith, so I'll go ahead and answer them in good faith.

To really understand herd immunity, you need to understand the idea of the R0 in a virus. In very layman's terms, your R0 (pronounced R-naught) is the approximate number of people an infected person will infect going forward. Different COVID strains are running about 2.5-6. Delta is the high end of that, which is why it's taking over across the country.

Once you have the R0, you can do some computation to figure out the threshold that a vaccination needs to be effective*administered to create herd immunity. We call this the HIT, and the formula is p=1- (1/R0). Take the 2009 influenza outbreak, for example. That had a R0 of 1.6. p= 1-(1/1.6); p=.375. This means that a vaccine needs to be administered in a way that effectiveness*administration is equal to 37.5%. This can be achieved with a 100% effective vaccine administered to 37.5% of the population, a 37.5% vaccine administered to 100% of the population, or any two percentages that when multiple together reach at least 37.5%. Delta variant seems to be about 6; so we can do the math on that right quick and get a number at 83. With a vaccination plan that still seems to be 95% effective even on the delta variant, we need about 87% of people to get vaccinated to eradicate it. Pfizer has their first batch for the delta variant which should make sure that we’re at 95% even if the current vaccine is lower, so we're potentially in good shape with that, if people actually get vaccinated.

I don't know who was shouted down when talking about herd immunity last year, aside from the people who said that we should just let the virus spread through unabated and then get herd immunity that way. At that time, that would have meant that 75% of people would have needed to get the alpha strain (assuming catching COVID makes you 100% immune, which we know it doesn't) for us to reach herd immunity. About 10.9% of Americans have gotten COVID, and it's resulted in 616,000 deaths. At that rate, we would have seen 4,250,000 deaths in the US alone. Not to mention the additional deaths from the obvious overload that it would have had on the medical system.

And yeah, the study is kinda right, without looking at it (edit: I looked at it and followed up in another post). The longer a virus stays out, the longer and more probable it is to mutate, and the more likely that one of those mutations will be much more dangerous. That's why we have about 400 known influenza type A and type B out in the world, and others we know are theoretical but have never been seen. This is why we need people to stop messing around and to get vaccinated as soon as possible. The more of you that stay unvaccinated, the more impossible it is for the vaccine to hit the thresholds we need to hit, and the more likely that the Lambda variant has a 40% kill rate or hits a number that is unobtainable with a 95% effective vaccine. So please get vaccinated, so we can actually reach these numbers, otherwise, yes COVID could get much, much worse and be here forever. 

 

As far as I know, ADE is purely theoretical in COVID and other influenzas, but it's something we always are checking for with every single vaccine we produce. The big one that we know about is with Dengue virus. Dengue has four different forms, and having the antibodies for one actually creates a system where a different one can bind to your antibodies, and then more easily transmit itself, and your immune system doesn't do anything. So what effectively happens is that you get Dengue once, and it's super mild, barely more than a bad cold, all things considered. But then if you get one of the other strains after that, you have a very likely chance of dying because your body effectively opens the door for it to spread wherever. 

It's also important to know that forms and variants are different concepts. Variants are like if you and I both own a Bo Jackson signed football, but they're signed in different places and one is scuffed up; they're both basically the same thing, and we'd basically view them as the same exact thing. On the other hand, forms are like if you have Bo Jackson signed football, and I have a Bo Jackson signed baseball; they're both balls signed by Bo Jackson, but they're wildly different enough to understood as different things, even though they fit the same classification.

And like I said earlier, it's a theoretical concept with influenzas, that we're being mindful of. If it was something that actually happened at all, what you'd see with the delta variant is that BOTH vaccinated people and those who have already had the virus would be far, far worse off than those who don't have the antibodies yet. Instead, it's the exact opposite; vaccinated people are catching it and virtually nobody is being hospitalized, and those unvaccinated are filling up hospital beds.

 

Hope that helps. Go get vaccinated if you haven't. Please.

[G]

2 hours ago, JonStark said:

This might be the worst take in this entire thread, and that's saying something. What in the world are you talking about? 

2) We knew a year and a half ago who it targeted so you 'lockdown' those people and keep things open. The healthy people will be fine just like the 80% of people who tested positive with little to no symptoms. That was just the people who were tested as there were probably many more with no symptoms so they didn't get tested. When a vaccine only 'mitigates' symptoms instead of elimination of a virus the mutations or 'variants' become more troublesome (Look up 2015 Abstract titled 'Imperfect Vaccination can enhance the transmission of highly virulent pathogens') Covid vaccines do not eliminate the virus at all, it just supposedly makes symptoms less severe (See above 80% little to no symptoms before vaccines) Even CDC came out last week acknowledging vaccinated have the same 'viral load' as unvaccinated. So you're not 'protecting others' at all, just virtue signaling thinking it makes you look good. Group think at it's finest but you don't see me telling you not to vaccinate. Do what you want but know the facts and the facts are were less than 2/3rds into rollout and breakthrough is ramping up so 4-6 months a booster is probably needed for those who actually need it. Hence why they are now looking into 3rd shot for vunerable even though that wasn't suppose to be on the table yet. However most tell other to shut up, don't discuss and just get vaxxed. No long term results just millions who jump off the bridge expecting others to follow (group think) yet the rest of the unvaccinated are looking at you swimming in the water and we can wait to see what happens because obviously we have a strong internal frame of reference and not pressured by others as easily as others are. Neither side is right or wrong but only one side wants to wait and the other side says 'no it's your fault' but if you look up that abstract you might see another perspective. Not my problem and I'm open to discussion and learning. Back it up with info printed before covid and I'll take it seriously. CDC has back tracked several times already so any new 'info' that 'debunks' is just propaganda to push an agenda. I have lots of chickens so I'm use to seeing how 'group think' works in animals and to be honest what I've seen the past 1.5 years from humans is way more dangerous than the covid virus. I wasn't afraid of the virus as I was afraid of how people will act/react/interact and called 2021 will be worse than 2020 and I seem to be right, but that's from my perspective. I'm not anti vax at all and had 3 shots the past year but not for covid. They were tested for long term and that's what is needed for me to be interested. FDA approval didn't help drug companies from being sued for opiates but we can't sue these guys if anything happens is another HELL NO! I was only 'hesiant' before and was planning on getting it at the end of the year but with the BS push I'm 100% dug in. So they must cancel all 'passports' mandatory BS or people won't trust to get it. Not denier's or 'misinformed' which I'm obviously not. I'm not influenced by media/social or network, no celeb or sports star influences my choices. Nor any political affiliation because I'm Indy who doesn't care unless pushed then I push back harder like a curse spell. However I will respond to the energy sent towards me and always take it up a notch when provoked. People are easily manipulated and like Pavlov's dog they will respond according except for those who understand Plato's Allegory of the Cave and then have to make a conscious decision knowing what the possible outcome could be for speaking up. 😃

[pwny]

2 minutes ago, G said:

‘misinformed' which I'm obviously not.

[ET80]

1 minute ago, -Hope- said:

these are maybe the funniest consecutive sentences i've ever seen on FF

Saddest. Saddest.

[G]

14 minutes ago, pwny said:

These seem like questions in good faith, so I'll go ahead and answer them in good faith.

To really understand herd immunity, you need to understand the idea of the R0 in a virus. In very layman's terms, your R0 (pronounced R-naught) is the approximate number of people an infected person will infect going forward. Different COVID strains are running about 2.5-6. Delta is the high end of that, which is why it's taking over across the country.

Once you have the R0, you can do some computation to figure out the threshold that a vaccination needs to be effective*administered to create herd immunity. We call this the HIT, and the formula is p=1- (1/R0). Take the 2009 influenza outbreak, for example. That had a R0 of 1.6. p= 1-(1/1.6); p=.375. This means that a vaccine needs to be administered in a way that effectiveness*administration is equal to 37.5%. This can be achieved with a 100% effective vaccine administered to 37.5% of the population, a 37.5% vaccine administered to 100% of the population, or any two percentages that when multiple together reach at least 37.5%. Delta variant seems to be about 6; so we can do the math on that right quick and get a number at 83. With a vaccination plan that still seems to be 95% effective even on the delta variant, we need about 87% of people to get vaccinated to eradicate it. Pfizer has their first batch for the delta variant, so we're potentially in good shape with that, if people actually get vaccinated.

I don't know who was shouted down when talking about herd immunity last year, aside from the people who said that we should just let the virus spread through unabated and then get herd immunity that way. At that time, that would have meant that 75% of people would have needed to get the alpha strain (assuming catching COVID makes you 100% immune, which we know it doesn't) for us to reach herd immunity. About 10.9% of Americans have gotten COVID, and it's resulted in 616,000 deaths. At that rate, we would have seen 4,250,000 deaths in the US alone. Not to mention the additional deaths from the obvious overload that it would have had on the medical system.

And yeah, the study is kinda right, without looking at it. The longer a virus stays out, the longer and more probable it is to mutate, and the more likely that one of those mutations will be much more dangerous. That's why we have about 400 known influenza type A and type B out in the world, and others we know are theoretical but have never been seen. This is why we need people to stop messing around and to get vaccinated as soon as possible. The more of you that stay unvaccinated, the more impossible it is for the vaccine to hit the thresholds we need to hit, and the more likely that the Lambda variant has a 40% kill rate or hits a number that is unobtainable with a 95% effective vaccine. So please get vaccinated, so we can actually reach these numbers, otherwise, yes COVID could get much, much worse and be here forever. 

 

As far as I know, ADE is purely theoretical in COVID and other influenzas, but it's something we always are checking for with every single vaccine we produce. The big one that we know about is with Dengue virus. Dengue has four different forms, and having the antibodies for one actually creates a system where a different one can bind to your antibodies, and then more easily transmit itself, and your immune system doesn't do anything. So what effectively happens is that you get Dengue once, and it's super mild, barely more than a bad cold, all things considered. But then if you get one of the other strains after that, you have a very likely chance of dying because your body effectively opens the door for it to spread wherever. 

It's also important to know that forms and variants are different concepts. Variants are like if you and I both own a Bo Jackson signed football, but they're signed in different places and one is scuffed up; they're both basically the same thing, and we'd basically view them as the same exact thing. On the other hand, forms are like if you have Bo Jackson signed football, and I have a Bo Jackson signed baseball; they're both balls signed by Bo Jackson, but they're wildly different enough to understood as different things, even though they fit the same classification.

And like I said earlier, it's a theoretical concept with influenzas, that we're being mindful of. If it was something that actually happened at all, what you'd see with the delta variant is that BOTH vaccinated people and those who have already had the virus would be far, far worse off than those who don't have the antibodies yet. Instead, it's the exact opposite; vaccinated people are catching it and virtually nobody is being hospitalized, and those unvaccinated are filling up hospital beds.

 

Hope that helps. Go get vaccinated if you haven't. Please.

Excellent post and stuff I recently had seen myself so I didn't have to look it up. I disagree with hospitalization because of Israel being almost 90% vaccinated and it's like 74% in the hospital are fully vaccinated. Now the counter to that is MATH so naturally higher vaccination rate means higher hospitalization rate fully vaccinated. Yet nobody wants to discuss that same MATH the other way in areas with low vaccination rates. So an easy conclusion is that more in the hospital would be unvaxxed. Now people still die vaccination or not. The same people it targeted before elderly, unhealthy, etc. Yet we had a year and a half to get healthy and that was never pushed and here in Cali gyms closed so many got unhealthy. Masks also effect exercise and the WHO even said over a year ago you shouldn't mask while exercising. So just saying here's all these 'rules' and you must follow to protect others didn't work. 

My idea was the one to protect vunerable and open up. 5% were China's early death rate of worst case. I figured 7.6 billion people so 400 million will die over 3 years and that is acceptable losses. Sounds harsh but that was worst case and acceptable by any military leader. I do have family who died of covid, I had a gf in China when it all happened so was getting WeChat updates as things hit the fan (she got covid here at work and had flu symptoms) know lots who got it and didn't know but work tested first responders regularly. Even I isolated waiting for others tests and my own but negative. 

There is also just vaccination talk and if one has immunity from getting it they still want to force it down people's throats. I have a huge problem with that and if those pushing don't stop they won't like the push back. We're all human so to think Pavlov's dog doesn't apply would be a mistake IMO

[G]

22 minutes ago, pwny said:

3) LOL It's funny because I had just responded to one of your posts to another and I liked your approach to them. I was thinking that the problem is TRUST and people DO NOT TRUST those pushing it. It's how one approaches and delievers which you had me thinking someone like you would be better at convincing people than those currently doing it. THEN...You do this and that all disappeared. LOL So I find that interesting 😃

[ET80]

Let's keep politics out of the discussion.

Tks.

- ET

[G]

2 minutes ago, -Hope- said:

this is illiterate. also against the rules, but mostly illiterate

Define 'illiterate' as my definition for illiterate is a person unable to read and write. So you are wrong. You might not agree or understand and that's expected when questioned. So your definition is?

[-Hope-]

1 minute ago, G said:

Define 'illiterate' as my definition for illiterate is a person unable to read and write. So you are wrong. You might not agree or understand and that's expected when questioned. So your definition is?

i would like it if you posted less so i am going to stop responding