Dolphins trade 3rd overall pick to SF

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, ClutchDJ said:

Just imagine if the Niners select Mac, he goes on to be very successful, while Fields becomes a middling or even a bust. Would that be worse than the consensus missing on Rosen vs Allen?

The situation a QB lands in plays such a huge role in how their career pans out. Allen landed in a situation in Buffalo where they knew they had to be patient with him and then built around his strengths. Rosen went to a terrible team that switched coaching staffs and wanted their guy at QB.

I'd say though that Jones like Rosen has pretty average physical tools while Fields has good but not Allen level tools. 

When you look at the most recent draft classes of the guys that were 1st round picks and have gotten 2+ years of playing time. There's a theme that emerges very quickly. 

Good QB's: Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray

Average: Baker Mayfield 

Jury still out: Daniel Jones

Busts: Mitchell Tribusky, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Dwayne Haskins

The guys that have found success have been the athletic guys with premier arm talent but things that needed to be cleaned up. All 5 of those guys all went to offenses that had weapons already or looked to add weapons for them early in their career. Even Mayfield who's not great from a physical tools standpoint has been pretty average but Cleveland has done an amazing job putting pieces around him. 

 

[Forge]

1 minute ago, Blue said:

Ah yes, one injury is the reason San Francisco has been picking in the top 10 5 of the last 6 years, even though Jimmy has only been there for 4.

Shanny has been the coach 4 years. 

Let's put major weight on the first year where the team tore it all down to reset and was expected to be awful.

Jimmy hurt in 2018, though the team was likely over hyped this year. Jimmy healthy in 2019. Everyone hurt in 2020.

 

[J-ALL-DAY]

4 minutes ago, Blue said:

Ah yes, one injury is the reason San Francisco has been picking in the top 10 5 of the last 6 years, even though Jimmy has only been there for 4.

Why are you talking about the years before this regime took over? 

And 2017 was just due to a complete rebuild year one and taking their licks. Jimmy getting hurt in 2018 and 2020 was a major reason for the record the team finished with. So yes, when your QB gets hurt, that one injury will impact the W/L record big time. But of course, he was far from the only one injured last season. 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, ClutchDJ said:

Just imagine if the Niners select Mac, he goes on to be very successful, while Fields becomes a middling or even a bust. Would that be worse than the consensus missing on Rosen vs Allen?

I mentioned this earlier in the thread. If that happens, I wouldn't be all be shocked if Mac was more successful. A lot of QBs are their situations. I don't know that it actually makes him better though. It's an interesting aspect to consider in hindsight

[Blue]

3 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Why are you talking about the years before this regime took over? 

And 2017 was just due to a complete rebuild year one and taking their licks. Jimmy getting hurt in 2018 and 2020 was a major reason for the record the team finished with. So yes, when your QB gets hurt, that one injury will impact the W/L record big time. But of course, he was far from the only one injured last season. 

Because you don't get to claim the team "isn't going to be in this position often" when they have, in fact, been in this position almost every year.

When Garoppolo was healthy in 2018 and 2020, the Niners were 4-5.

I know I'm never going to convince you that your team is not as good as you think it is, but I do want to put it out there that the Super Bowl appearance is very, very obviously the outlier season, not the reasonable expectation.

[Forge]

6 hours ago, SteelKing728 said:

Even though he's physically limited?

I don't want Mac Jones at all. I think it would be insane to make this leap for Mac Jones. But I think he'd be successful with Kyle. I don't think he's Matt Ryan, but Kirk Cousins is reasonable. 

The thing for me is that if your first round qb turns into Kirk Cousins, you didn't do bad. that's a fine result. But you shouldn't be drafting a guy with the thought that he's going to be Kirk Cousins, if you know what I mean. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

6 minutes ago, Blue said:

Because you don't get to claim the team "isn't going to be in this position often" when they have, in fact, been in this position almost every year.

When Garoppolo was healthy in 2018 and 2020, the Niners were 4-5.

I know I'm never going to convince you that your team is not as good as you think it is, but I do want to put it out there that the Super Bowl appearance is very, very obviously the outlier season, not the reasonable expectation.

That is fine you think the team will be in this position again and 2019 was a fluke. However, continuing to compare the 2016, 2017 and 2018 rosters to the one they have now is hilarious. The roster they have right now with talent and depth is easily top 10 in the league. 

Cool, Jimmy went 3-3 last year while his replacements went 3-7. Yeah, I'm confident the team wouldn't be picking this high if he stayed healthy. 

[Forge]

11 minutes ago, Blue said:

When Garoppolo was healthy in 2018 and 2020, the Niners were 4-5.

 

But this is part of it what I'm saying. Even if you're around .500....say 8-9, you're picking closer to 16 than you are 12 in a lot of years. Its not a small thing. We see how fast quarterbacks go. Being a .500 team just keeps you on a treadmill, which is exactly why I wanted them to take a shot. You have to be up there to get them. The team doesn't have to be great in order for them to not have a real shot at a quarterback either. 

This year, with this QB class, I felt like they had the opportunity to take their shot. 

[Forge]

11 minutes ago, Blue said:

I know I'm never going to convince you that your team is not as good as you think it is, but I do want to put it out there that the Super Bowl appearance is very, very obviously the outlier season, not the reasonable expectation.

Nobody has claimed that the super bowl is the reasonable expectation. 

The reasonable expectation is more or less that they likely wouldn't be bad enough to go shoot their shot on a QB? 

[Blue]

4 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

That is fine you think the team will be in this position again and 2019 was a fluke. However, continuing to compare the 2016, 2017 and 2018 rosters to the one they have now is hilarious. The roster they have right now with talent and depth is easily top 10 in the league. 

Cool, Jimmy went 3-3 last year while his replacements went 3-7. Yeah, I'm confident the team wouldn't be picking this high if he stayed healthy. 

I'm not comparing the rosters. I am pointing out that being in this position has been the norm for the 9ers, not a fluke like y'all seem to believe. You have absolutely been in this position regularly. Why wouldn't they continue to be in this position given Garoppolo's inability to stay healthy and San Francisco's inability to obtain a decent backup?

1 minute ago, Forge said:

But this is part of it what I'm saying. Even if you're around .500....say 8-9, you're picking closer to 16 than you are 12 in a lot of years. Its not a small thing. We see how fast quarterbacks go. Being a .500 team just keeps you on a treadmill, which is exactly why I wanted them to take a shot. You have to be up there to get them. The team doesn't have to be great in order for them to not have a real shot at a quarterback either. 

This year, with this QB class, I felt like they had the opportunity to take their shot. 

Worrying about a difference of four spots in the teens feels like an irrelevant issue when you haven't been winning enough games to be picking in the teens most years.

Just now, Forge said:

Nobody has claimed that the super bowl is the reasonable expectation. 

The reasonable expectation is more or less that they likely wouldn't be bad enough to go shoot their shot on a QB? 

That's not a reasonable expectation though based on what this regime has done in San Francisco.

You can keep talking about the talent level on the roster all you want. You are your record, and San Francisco's record under Shanahan (and beyond!) has been pretty bad outside of one year. Banking on that one year being the norm doesn't seem reasonable to me.

I'm not even ragging on the trade up, I just think the logic of "well they had to do it because they won't be picking this high otherwise" is laughably and demonstrably untrue. Just say that they must like a guy enough to go up and get him.

[MWil23]

Fact: Jimmy G is paid too much

Also Fact: Jimmy G isn’t a bad quarterback. 

[ClutchDJ]

34 minutes ago, Forge said:

I mentioned this earlier in the thread. If that happens, I wouldn't be all be shocked if Mac was more successful. A lot of QBs are their situations. I don't know that it actually makes him better though. It's an interesting aspect to consider in hindsight

Yea, I never buy into the “It’s the organization’s fault this this player failed” excuses. I always think that’s a cop-out & translation for “This player isn’t what I envisioned him at all, but I’ll continue to buy into him & blame the organization so I don’t look like a fool looking back”. No matter how horrific the situation may be, you’ll always show a good amount of flashes. That goes for any athlete regardless of sport. I never bought into the Josh Rosen “Was done dirty & put into a horrific situation” when in reality, he made the situation look worse than it actually was, as with other highly touted players coming out of college. They rarely showed flashes & I can see that happening to Fields as well if he does end up busting.

[Dr A W Niloc]

It may be time to reconsider the axiom that the odds of injuries shouldn't factor into our calculations.

[Blue]

Just now, Dr A W Niloc said:

It may be time to reconsider the axiom that the odds of injuries shouldn't factor into our calculations.

When it's a trend, they absolutely should.

[Forge]

11 minutes ago, Blue said:

Worrying about a difference of four spots in the teens feels like an irrelevant issue when you haven't been winning enough games to be picking in the teens most years

Its not. It's better to be picking 12 than it is 16 when what you want is at the top of the draft. Trades like that don't happen often. 

11 minutes ago, Blue said:

That's not a reasonable expectation though based on what this regime has done in San Francisco.

 

With it's starting QB, they are 24-9. Seems a pretty reasonable expectation. 

11 minutes ago, Blue said:

You can keep talking about the talent level on the roster all you want. You are your record, and San Francisco's record under Shanahan (and beyond!) has been pretty bad outside of one year. Banking on that one year being the norm doesn't seem reasonable to me.

 

24-9 when led by an actual nfl starting caliber QB and not a back up seems like a pretty solid record. As my post originally said, you're banking on an injury to have the 9ers pick that high again. That's not an unreasonable claim given what we have seen through these years. Jimmy G, when healthy gives this team a floor of middling team. 

Now it's fair to wonder whether JImmy will stay healthy. Obviously 4 injuries in 35 starts is too much, but that's the reason that they are making the move. 

11 minutes ago, Blue said:

I'm not even ragging on the trade up, I just think the logic of "well they had to do it because they won't be picking this high otherwise" is laughably and demonstrably untrue. Just say that they must like a guy enough to go up and get him.

The logic was assuming health of Jimmy as I said in the post. It's right here:

11 hours ago, Forge said:

I really wanted them to be bold. Jimmy is a competent starter and the coaching staff is good, chance are reasonable we won't be picking this high often.  I have a high hopes that a rookie will pan out with this roster and coaching staff. 

They were going to have to get another injury from Jimmy in order have a real shot to draft a QB this high again, so I was all about trying to shoot my shot here. I'm hopeful they can get a return on Jimmy after a solid year; even if it's two second round picks for 22 and 23, that would take a lot of the sting out from the two firsts (especially since I anticipate the 2022 first round pick to be later if Jimmy stars all year).