Who is actually a worthy Pick at 17?

[oakdb36]

39 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

I think there is more than a couple around here that understand certain positions will on average take a year or 3 to start producing.  

That's not obvious.

[jimkelly02]

4 hours ago, big_palooka said:

I think if you're taking Moehrig who is a 2nd round talent at 17, it's desperate. More so when your team lacks at several spots on defense.

I see Moehrig as a fringe 1st round talent.  But that’s an Arnette level reach at 17.  Only way I want him is with a trade down.

[jimkelly02]

2 hours ago, big_palooka said:

I would be fine trading back and drafting him in the mid-late 20's. 17 straight up over players I feel have a chance to be special, it would feel very on brand. 

That’s exactly my opinion....

and why I don’t want a RT like Jenkins.  I’d be happy taking Darrisaw but that’s it.  Don’t want a RT with pass pro and agility issues that will forever limit him.

I’m of the opinion to stay at 17 and take Parsons or Farley is they fall to us.  Maybe JOK but I’d feel A lot better moving back a few spots to take him.

even if we get a RT and FS it’s not like we’re “complete”.... we still Need to do a lot to build this team Up.

[drfrey13]

5 hours ago, oakdb36 said:

That's not obvious.

I think were we run into issues is we have cut or received almost zero from a lot of players in Gruden's first 3 drafts and we had a ton of capital.  This problem is compounded when we select what are suppose to be safe players and pro ready and get very little from them.  I do not see any of our picks as busts but I do see a lot of them as being over-drafted or put in situations to not succeed.  Imagine in 2018 if we did not send Miller out there on a bum knee and allowed Parker to be the backup LT.  Miller gets the benefit of the doubt because he is hurt and Parker probably looks like a rookie still but ten times better.  Instead the coaching staff put both of them in a position to look really bad.  Someone like Ferrell who will be a good starter looks like a bust if he does not start averaging over 8 sacks a year because he was drafted #4.  WRs and DBs tend to struggle in year one which Ruggs, Edwards, and Arnette.  Ruggs and Arnette were asked to do things they were not ready for and Edwards was not used.  Jacobs is the only one that came out year one and played really good but he was not ready to be a workhorse and might not ever be.

[drfrey13]

4 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

That’s exactly my opinion....

and why I don’t want a RT like Jenkins.  I’d be happy taking Darrisaw but that’s it.  Don’t want a RT with pass pro and agility issues that will forever limit him.

I’m of the opinion to stay at 17 and take Parsons or Farley is they fall to us.  Maybe JOK but I’d feel A lot better moving back a few spots to take him.

even if we get a RT and FS it’s not like we’re “complete”.... we still Need to do a lot to build this team Up.

Unless we have a 2014 type of draft and they perform year 1 we are not making the playoffs this year.  Getting a top talent is more important than getting a top need.  Hopefully we can accomplish both but to get good value a trade back will most likely be needed.

[Frankie2Gunz]

5 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

That’s exactly my opinion....

and why I don’t want a RT like Jenkins.  I’d be happy taking Darrisaw but that’s it.  Don’t want a RT with pass pro and agility issues that will forever limit him.

I’m of the opinion to stay at 17 and take Parsons or Farley is they fall to us.  Maybe JOK but I’d feel A lot better moving back a few spots to take him.

even if we get a RT and FS it’s not like we’re “complete”.... we still Need to do a lot to build this team Up.

If we stay at 17 I could see us going a few ways.  Parsons, Surtain or Horn if they are there, if not I could see an Edge rusher like Ojulari or a Tackle like Darrisaw.

The second round pick is contingent on the first pick but I could see a safety like Holland, a Tackle like Eichenburg or a DT like Nixon.

I feel like any combo of those players would be good value.

[jimkelly02]

2 hours ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

If we stay at 17 I could see us going a few ways.  Parsons, Surtain or Horn if they are there, if not I could see an Edge rusher like Ojulari or a Tackle like Darrisaw.

The second round pick is contingent on the first pick but I could see a safety like Holland, a Tackle like Eichenburg or a DT like Nixon.

I feel like any combo of those players would be good value.

I usually have locked in on a prospect for each pick on days 1-2 but this year all I want is good value.  I use to hope for best case scenarios but now I just don’t want a total reach or stupid move.

[Frankie2Gunz]

6 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

I usually have locked in on a prospect for each pick on days 1-2 but this year all I want is good value.  I use to hope for best case scenarios but now I just don’t want a total reach or stupid move.

I totally agree and every year I have a list of players who I wouldn't mind in different scenarios.  The reason for that is our team is usually so devoid of talent and depth, I want us to go BPA at the majority of positions.  I really hope we dont pull an Arnette again this year and take a player in the 1st who is not on anyones radar. 

[NYRaider]

Get a defensive playmaker:

• Patrick Surtain | CB | Alabama

• Micah Parsons | LB | Penn State

• Kwity Paye | Edge | Michigan

• Jaelan Phillips | Edge | Miami

• Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | Notre Dame

• Azeez Ojulari | Edge | Georgia

[NYRaider]

19 hours ago, big_palooka said:

I think if you're taking Moehrig who is a 2nd round talent at 17, it's desperate. More so when your team lacks at several spots on defense.

Holland at #48 is a much better value than Moehrig at #17.

[oakdb36]

1. Worthy: JOK, AVT, Horn, Darrisaw, Ojulari, Phillips, Moehrig.

2. Steal: Parsons, Surtain, Slater, Paye.

3. Reach: Collins, Jenkins, Newsome, the DTs, Rousseau.

This is all based on their average prospect rankings from 4 different sources (TDN, PFN, Jeremiah, CBS).

I'm leaving Farley out since his value has everything to do with his physicals.

Here is how the average prospect rankings look for the top 32 (avg rank from the 4 sources):

1.Trevor Lawrence (1)

2.Kyle Pitts (3.25)
3.Ja'Marr Chase (4)
4.Zach Wilson (5)
5.Penei Sewell (5)

6.Justin Fields (6.75)
7.Jaylen Waddle (6.75)
8.Devonta Smith (8.75)
9.Micah Parsons (9)

10.Patrick Surtain (11.75)
11.Kwity Paye (12)
12.Rashawn Slater (12)

13.Trey Lance (14.75)
14.Caleb Farley (15)

15.JOK (17)
16.Alijah Vera-Tucker (17.5)
17.Jaycee Horn (18.5)
18.Christian Darrisaw (18.5)
19.Azeez Ojulari (20.5)
20.Jaelan Phillips (21.5)
21.Trevon Moehrig (21.75)

22.Zaven Collins (24)
23.Najee Harris (24.75)
24.Travis Etienne (26)
25.Teven Jenkins (26.5)
26.Kadarius Toney (27.25)

27.Rashod Bateman (29.5)
28.Greg Newsome (30)
29.Rondale Moore (30)

30.Gregory Rousseau (33)
31.Levi Onwuzurike (34.75)
32.Mac Jones (35.25)

[G]

On 4/16/2021 at 8:55 AM, Jeremy408 said:

 

1. Who would actually be worthy of the Raiders number 17 pick?

I'm not worthy...and won't be there or not needed but ARE WORTHY

3 QB's Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, 3 WR's Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith 1 TE Kyle Pitts (7) that we really don't need.

3 T's Penei Sewell, Rashawn Slater, Christian Darrisaw all would be good and worthy and being we paid Miller, I would have no problems with him at RT

3 CB's Caleb Farley, Patrick Surtain II, Jaycee Horn all high valued and worthy but not as big of a need. Wouldn't be a reach though valuable position.

 

3 DE's Kwity Paye,  Azeez Ojulari, Jaelen Phillips (see CB's) I just don't love these guys. Paye lacks the college production, Azeez lacks the size but would play Sam and LEO, Phillips concussions really concern me and how small he got and bulked up so quickly is a red flag to me not hard work over time. He lacked production til then.

My hope 1 LB Micah Parsons @ 17      

 

2. Who would be a steal at the raiders 17th pick?

QB Lawrence, T Sewell, LB Parsons all steals @ 17

3. Who Would be a reach at the Raiders 17th?

Anyone not listed above. LOL 

I just see there's not much of a difference in the next level/value. Our needs at FS moves Moehrig up but I see Holland and Grant as a hair behind and on the board at 40 so without a trade down is desired. Oline Vera-Tucker, Leatherwood, Eichenberg, Jenkins, Cosmi, Mayfield, and Radunz all could fit in 2nd round but might not be there at 48 so a trade up after a trade down once a run on Tackles begins. So once again around 40 is a sweet spot. (27 players mentioned)

By late 1st both QB's Lance and Jones probably don't make it out of the 1st round (29)

LB's Collins, JOK, Bolton, all probably late 1st early 2nd round picks. (32)

Dline DT's Barmore, Onwuzurike, Nixon and DE's Rousseau, Oweh, and Basham move the board to (38)

CB's Newsome, Samuel Jr, Molden and Campbell all probably late 1st early 2nd rounders (42)

RB's Harris, Etienne (44) 

Oline C's Dickerson, Humphrey and G Davis (47)

Then any other WR's probably 3 Toney, Bateman and Marshall (50)

So trading down from 17 and up a bit would be best IMO. To get 3 picks in the 2nd with a variety of moves should add a decent FS/RT and depth on DL or LB

If NO trade down available I'd rather get Brown or Carman @ 48 even though I see them as 3rd rounders.

BP, Bay and JKelly all have similar thoughts on this as I do as I agree with much that I read here as well as the poster that mentioned it's a 'fluid' thing.

 

[Rich7sena]

There's a wide range of players who are worthy picks at 17. For instance, I don't love Ojulari or Barmore there, but I would not consider them egregious picks at 17. I think any of the following are worthy picks and neither reaches nor steals (in no order): Parsons, JOK, Darrisaw, AVT, Jenkins, Newsome, Phillips, Ojulari, Collins, Davis, Cosmi, and Ossai.

I would consider Darrisaw a slight steal. Parsons would be a steal to the draft community at large but not in my eyes. Any of the top 3 corners or Kwity Paye would be realistic steals to me.

 

 

Edited April 19, 2021 by Rich7sena

[BayRaider]

Wrong thread

Edited April 19, 2021 by BayRaider